Strategic Patience (?)

[Haji 2003]

A Twitter/X Post

Copied and pasted below with small edits for profanity and also paragraphs and bold text.

the US is soon going to directly join in on the mass bombing campaign of Iran.

All the reports about "Israel requests" are ... propaganda. The decision has already been made. They are waiting for when they believe Iran's retaliatory capacity has sufficiently been depleted. This was a US-Israeli war from the very start, planned, designed, armed, funded, given diplomatic cover by both. In fact, it was and is a Zionist US-NATO-Israeli war. The UK, France, Germany, all NATO and their Arab Shield puppet regimes like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE are all directly involved.

Iran should have already, and should right now immediately, begin targeting all these assets in the region and inflict massive damage. The oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf puppet regimes must be hit, the Strait of Hormuz must be closed, US bases and compounds and settlements must be hit. Immediately. Right now. Without delay, while Iran still has the military-state capacity to do it.

If they don't, they will all target them once it has been sufficiently depleted by the Israeli tip of the spear, which again is a direct extension of the US-NATO empire, every bomb, every jet, every missile, all the Mossad operatives have CIA and MI6 right alongside them, UK and French spy planes and ships give them intel, Saudi, UAE.

The talk of "oh, but then the US will have an excuse to attack us!" is exactly the kind of "strategic patience" type thinking that led to this war being launched against you. That decision has already been made, it was made when they launched the war and everyone knows it. Waiting until they have joined in on the bombing "directly", which is itself an absurdity as they are already directly involved in every missile and bomb that lands on Iran and mass murders babies, children, women and men as Trump boasted about with glee, is already too late. By that point you no longer have sufficient retaliatory military capacity.

This is just an excuse to not take the necessary action to save your nation and people. Iran can use its Iraqi and Yemeni allies to take on the hits on the Arab Shield puppet regimes' oil infrastructure, the Houthis are crying out for revenge from the genocide the Saudis and UAE inflicted on them. Why did you build all these allies if you do not use them now, when you are in an existential war for the survival of your nation and people?

They want total state collapse, they want tens of millions of lives destroyed, and then Yemen and Iraq and all the others will just be mop-op operations with millions more eliminated there, entire societies ended. The only way to force the US-NATO-Israeli Zionist death-cult to back down now is by using all your state and military capacities and engaging in a total war.

You have to make yourself appear totally irrational and fearless and without restraint, violate red lines that they did not even know existed and were possible to violate. Do everything immediately now or soon you will no longer be able to, and you will become yet another in the long line of "failed states", of "tragedies" like Libya and Syria the Western media class salivates over when they report on yet another 100 killed in a car bombing, yet another 500 killed by some death-squad roaming around, yet another new death-cult definitely not funded by the CIA and Mossad and their Gulf proxies posting beheading videos online and eating the hearts of people on the streets of Tehran, Sanaa and Baghdad.

The survival of tens of millions across the entire region depends on it.

https://x.com/zei_squirrel/status/1934073774833291399

 

[Marbles]

This is exactly what Yahu wants.

The author assumes that Iran has the capacity and the means to take on multiple powerful enemy entities all at the same time, which is very much in doubt.

If Iran chooses to go down this road, it will ensure complete destruction of the country and the eventual toppling of the political system. The consequences of something like this hapenning would be many times worse than Libya or Iraq. Not to mention the fall-out from an all-out war on the wider world.

Iran should seek ways to de-escalate and preserve what they have left of their military capability and live to tell the tale.

 

Edited June 15 by Marbles

[AbdusSibtayn]

I disagree. 

'Strategic patience' is not laying out all your cards at once. 

What this person is advocating is suicidal. 

[Guest Guest]

When you think about it, Iran-Iraq War, look at that footage. People of that time had so much more patriotism, passion, pride. They gave their lives for the cause. It seems very distant today. Different folks.

What you see now,  Academics, the Reformists, they have infiltrated the Iranian government in a way. 

I think I heard somewhere Jawad Zarif kids have dual citizenship and or are studying in the western countries. Other politicians kids also. 

[Haji 2003]

On 6/15/2025 at 6:10 AM, AbdusSibtayn said:

What this person is advocating is suicidal.

The notion of Tit for Tat from Game Theory would tend to agree with you and I think calibrated response would allow both parties an off-ramp. So, an Israeli attack on oil facilities is an attack on the equivalent Israeli facilities, etc.

I felt that the views in the OP were worth airing because it's worth considering the pros/cons of different approaches.

On 6/15/2025 at 5:36 AM, Marbles said:

Iran should seek ways to de-escalate and preserve what they have left of their military capability and live to tell the tale.

This also has attendant risks. The perception by the other side of Iranian weakness will stimulate them to try harder.

[RiseOrDie]

I mentioned this before:

Iran needs to hit Israel harder, much harder. No need to expand the war.

Cause immense damage to Israel illustrate 2 things:

1. These missiles can't all be intercepted, and they will hit you hard each time

2. The cost of continuing this war will be too high for Israel to accept.

Force a ceasefire asap, within days based on the above equation.

The days where Iran could ignite the region are long gone. There was an idea in the past that hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria will keep Israel busy. Iraq (hashd) and Iran will take on the US and gulf states and strait of hormuz. Yemen will close bab el mendab.

This is all gone now, evaporated after the martydom of Qassem Soleimani. Iran is facing a new reality.

[Haydar Husayn]

On 6/15/2025 at 11:36 AM, Marbles said:

This is exactly what Yahu wants.

The author assumes that Iran has the capacity and the means to take on multiple powerful enemy entities all at the same time, which is very much in doubt.

If Iran chooses to go down this road, it will ensure complete destruction of the country and the eventual toppling of the political system. The consequences of something like this hapenning would be many times worse than Libya or Iraq. Not to mention the fall-out from an all-out war on the wider world.

Iran should seek ways to de-escalate and preserve what they have left of their military capability and live to tell the tale.

 

What if the other side isn’t interested in de-escalation, just as it wasn’t in Gaza or with Hezbullah? Israel have wanted a war with Iran for decades. I don’t think they are going to let this chance for regime change slip through their fingers. To be honest, I already fear the worst for Iran, and I don’t know if they have any good options. One thing is for sure though, they can’t afford to allow Israel to carry out the same strategy they used against Hezbullah, of picking off the top people one by one and degrading their weapons, and they should definitely be assuming that the U.S. is going to be joining this war.

[Guest The Grand Master]

Zionist regime is failed, they have been defeated by Iran. They are scared and calling for help from US & from Europe, pleading them to intervene and come to rescue the Zionists. 

Personally, my sixth sense is alarming that something big from heavens is about to fall on US. Those who are living in US, should leave the country for the protection of their lives. 

May Almighty Lord grant steadfastness to the brave mo'mineen of Iran, pour patience on them and grant them victory over the tyrants & blood thirsty evil leadership of the west & zionist criminals.

May the Almighty Lord protect Islamic Republic its people and the Grand Ayatullah Khamenei a.r. 

نصر من الله و فتح قريب

انشاء الله

[Haji 2003]

Straits of Hormuz

The thinking in media had been that mining/closing the Straits this would be a last resort for Iran and also affect its ability to export. Perhaps this news changes that calculus? Apparently, the latest collision between two tankers was due to GPS interference.

 

[Haji 2003]

2 hours ago, Haydar Husayn said:

One thing is for sure though, they can’t afford to allow Israel to carry out the same strategy they used against Hezbullah, of picking off the top people one by one and degrading their weapons, and they should definitely be assuming that the U.S. is going to be joining this war.

 

Marandi seems to voice government opinion and this seems to agree with the view that if the IRI appears to go down, it make clear that it will take everyone with it. This is not nihilistic, but rational. If Western politicians believe that agreeing with Netanyahu is a one-way bet for their personal success, there will never be peace.

 

[Hassu93]

The modern wars are won using superior Airforce the same reason why Hezbollah stood its ground back in the day but was destroyed this time.

Iran has great Missiles and Drones program an Average airdefence but Non-existent airforce, some of their aircrafts are nearly 50 years old. They wasted the last 5 years not investing on it buy buying Russian and Chinese modern aircrafts and simply lack the capabilities to fight back a NATO onslaught. 

Sadly only way Iran can win a conventional war against USA and NATO is through a miracle. This is not strategic patience.

[Haji 2003]

7 hours ago, Hassu93 said:

They wasted the last 5 years not investing on it buy buying Russian and Chinese modern aircrafts and simply lack the capabilities to fight back a NATO onslaught. 

We can speculate many reasons why they may not have done so.

1. For a fixed pot of money, an aircraft gets Iran a ready-made piece of tech or the money to spend educating dozens of engineers how to make tech and keep improving it.
2. Missiles are cheap and expendable and as far as we have seen can be faster
3. If the recent example of India vs. Pakistan has influenced your answer, remember that India did not have access to the latest American radars etc. Israel most certainly would
4. Iran is under heavy sanctions, other countries will hesitate with supply and even if they do - what about spare parts when they are needed?

I can fully understand the desire not to play the game where your adversary has superiority and instead create a game where you do.

 

[Hamdi]

1 hour ago, Haji 2003 said:

We can speculate many reasons why they may not have done so.

1. For a fixed pot of money, an aircraft gets Iran a ready-made piece of tech or the money to spend educating dozens of engineers how to make tech and keep improving it.
2. Missiles are cheap and expendable and as far as we have seen can be faster
3. If the recent example of India vs. Pakistan has influenced your answer, remember that India did not have access to the latest American radars etc. Israel most certainly would
4. Iran is under heavy sanctions, other countries will hesitate with supply and even if they do - what about spare parts when they are needed?

I can fully understand the desire not to play the game where your adversary has superiority and instead create a game where you do.

 

Airplanes are litterally inferior to missiles. I know a guy knowledgable on this who told me missiles would make planes obsolete and he seems to be right, iran is doing the same thing with missiles.

 

Israel did 600 refuelings since 4 days ago against iran, 600! This is ridicilously unsustainable and expensive. 

Edited June 18 by Hamdi

[Hassu93]

13 hours ago, Hamdi said:

Airplanes are litterally inferior to missiles. I know a guy knowledgable on this who told me missiles would make planes obsolete and he seems to be right, iran is doing the same thing with missiles.

 

Israel did 600 refuelings since 4 days ago against iran, 600! This is ridicilously unsustainable and expensive. 

Missiles are cheaper but having a credible Airforce means you could prevent your adversary from flying over you and attacking you. It is why Iran ordered Su-35 from Russia last year but it was already late. America would be more hesitant joining the war when a country has modern aircrafts that can put up a fight.

The cost of refueling might be a concern for Countries like Israel, India, Pakistan but not for an oil rich nation. Also the cost will be significantly more for Israel whose jets need to fly over from their country than for Iran to have their jets over their own sky

 

 

14 hours ago, Haji 2003 said:

 

1. If the recent example of India vs. Pakistan has influenced your answer, remember that India did not have access to the latest American radars etc. Israel most certainly would

 

The thing is India Pakistan did not invade each other in the last 2 decades because they have an Airforce. The India Pakistan war after the first day was mostly drones and missiles crossing over each other. 

My take is not that Iran should have jets capable of flying over Israel and bombing them but rather they should be able to defend their own skies and prevent others from entering them

Again Hezbollah lost because of how easy it was for Israel to fly over Lebanon and Bomb them. 

[Haji 2003]

28 minutes ago, Hassu93 said:

The thing is India Pakistan did not invade each other in the last 2 decades because they have an Airforce. The India Pakistan war after the first day was mostly drones and missiles crossing over each other. 

While Pakistan's decisions may be ok for the short term, they are incredibly risky. The country's fate is now tied up with one relationship. That is a really, really bad position to be in, regardless of who the other party is.

[Eddie Mecca]

On 6/15/2025 at 7:10 AM, AbdusSibtayn said:

I disagree. 

'Strategic patience' is not laying out all your cards at once. 

What this person is advocating is suicidal

How did you go from this (down below) to this (up above)?? ^^^

"Enough with the 'strategic patience' nonsense!!! 

Enough with the 'deterrence building' cope!!! 

How worse can it really get?? What is the wait even for? 

'Patience', when misapplied, turns into cowardice. 

Given that strategic assets and military personnel are being blown to smithereens and mincemeat, 'deterrence' isn't clearly working. 

It can't get any worse. Time to stop turning the other cheek in the name of 'patience'. 

Exterminate these vermin NOW!! ACT NOW!! 

FLATTEN TEL AVIV"

 

[AbdusSibtayn]

27 minutes ago, Eddie Mecca said:

How did you go from this (down below) to this (up above)?? ^^^

"Enough with the 'strategic patience' nonsense!!! 

Enough with the 'deterrence building' cope!!! 

How worse can it really get?? What is the wait even for? 

'Patience', when misapplied, turns into cowardice. 

Given that strategic assets and military personnel are being blown to smithereens and mincemeat, 'deterrence' isn't clearly working. 

It can't get any worse. Time to stop turning the other cheek in the name of 'patience'. 

Exterminate these vermin NOW!! ACT NOW!! 

FLATTEN TEL AVIV"

 

I preferred strategic patience over a suicidal 'all-out' attack, including one on American and Gulf assets, which many others were advocating. 

I should have written something like 'calibrated response' instead of 'strategic patience'. 

[Panzerwaffe]

20 hours ago, Hamdi said:

Airplanes are litterally inferior to missiles. I know a guy knowledgable on this who told me missiles would make planes obsolete and he seems to be right, iran is doing the same thing with missiles.

 

Israel did 600 refuelings since 4 days ago against iran, 600! This is ridicilously unsustainable and expensive. 

Both have pros and cons 

aircraft 

reusable 

better precision 

Multi role 

 

missiles 

harder to intercept 

cheaper to make 

less expertise to maintain 

easier to conceal 

 

[Haji 2003]

1 hour ago, Panzerwaffe said:

Both have pros and cons 

aircraft 

reusable 

better precision 

Multi role 

 

missiles 

harder to intercept 

cheaper to make 

less expertise to maintain 

easier to conceal 

 

 

The advantages and disadvantages are also dependent on who is using them.

1. If you have conceded air superiority to the enemy, then aircraft have a big disadvantage, airfields etc can be bombed.
2. If you are a very large country, missiles become easier to hide.
3. If you have to play a numbers game because the countries between you and your adversary will shoot you down - missiles are better.

When it comes to aircraft, it would be hard for Iran to produce/buy planes that are as good as the latest American kit. But we know that Iranian missiles are better than the anti-missile tech the Americans/Israelis have.

In life, it is best to focus on things where you have a competitive advantage.

[Haji 2003]