Why did Assad fall so easily?

[islamicmusic]

"New Syria"s news agency tells they seized a weapon shipment to Hezbollah.

https://sana.sy/en/?p=345305

Meanwhile "New Syria" allowed Israel to set up 8 army bases in South Syria.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DFLJRTzR4Ik/

So, Israel and HTS now are working together to cut the supply line to Hezbollah and besiege them.

[mahmood8726]

2 minutes ago, islamicmusic said:

"New Syria"s news agency tells they seized a weapon shipment to Hezbollah.

https://sana.sy/en/?p=345305

Meanwhile "New Syria" allowed Israel to set up 8 army bases in South Syria.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DFLJRTzR4Ik/

So, Israel and HTS now are working together to cut the supply line to Hezbollah and besiege them.

Here is HTS security forces doing nothing and allowing Israeli millitary vehicles to invade a syrian city: 

 

https://t.me/thecradlemedia/28689

 

[mahmood8726]

4 hours ago, Northwest said:

Re: 9/11: since this thread is about Syria, I don’t want to go too far OT.

i was thinking this, the whole 9/11 having Israeli connections is a long debate that could last hours and is diverging from this topic.

 

Same thing with hamas having some ties to isis, as the middle east and its alliances are extreemly complex and hamas itself is split in 2 between the Qatari side and Iranian aligned side, so it's a messy debate and will diverge a lot from why Bashar fell. 

[Northwest]

On 1/28/2025 at 1:46 AM, mahmood8726 said:

Assad mentioned this because the muslim Brotherhood has been in opposition with his government for decades, they opposed hafez al assad who flattened hama to get rid of them because they killed some of his soldiers.

@mahmood8726 In the interview and other sources he was clearly referring to the Syrian Muslim Brothers’ behaviour during the most recent “civil war” (2011–present) as well.

On 1/28/2025 at 1:46 AM, mahmood8726 said:

Either way, none of this is proof hamas was allied with isis, even you're not so sure of yourself and you're talking about elements from hamas at best.

Personally, I think there is some compelling circumstantial evidence (nothing more) that Hamas and ISIS Sinai might have forged a tactical, subterranean alignment vs. Israel’s Egyptian ally Sisi from 2013–18. (At the time not even Iran, Qatar, or Turkey officially challenged the claims of ties between Hamas and ISIS Sinai.) I do not think that Hamas was aligned with ISIS as a whole per se.

On 1/28/2025 at 1:46 AM, mahmood8726 said:

Israel and Syria did not have peace at all, syria was at war with Israel under hafez assad such as the war of 1973 and Syria repeatedly hosted various Palestinian militias(which israel despised) and supplied israels ennemies. Having a common enmity to hamas does not mean Syria will work with israel to curtail hamas, they have far more points of contention than points of interest.

Starting in the mid-1970s Hafez al-Assad actually made an arrangement of sorts with Israel vs. Arafat’s PLO and its allies. (At the time the PLO was tied to leftists and Iraqi Baathists, i.e., Saddam’s milieu.) In Lebanon, for instance, Assad supported the Israel-backed Lebanese Forces vs. the radical-secular Sunnis, while tacitly agreeing to establish spheres of influence there. During this timeframe—i.e., at the start of Israel’s war in Lebanon (1982)—the local Shias actually sided with Israel vs. the PLO and Co., owing to the latter’s behaviour toward Shias. Both Israel and Syria’s Assad, however unintentionally, did the Shias a favour by supporting the Maronites vs. the PLO and its collaborators. Up until 2005 Israel never directly challenged Syria’s presence in Lebanon, and figures such as Hariri maintained good relations with both the Assad family and Israeli elites, along with the Saudis. (Hariri’s assassination is often blamed on Israel, but in fact a branch of al-Qaida initially claimed responsibility.)

On 1/28/2025 at 1:46 AM, mahmood8726 said:

Hamas denying their existence or some police in 2015 not doing anything about some isis march, is in all honesty not good proof that hamas is on good terms with isis or helping them or that isis is not ennemies with hamas.

That could, in fact, indirectly point to a relationship, the public denial being part of the game.

[mahmood8726]

13 minutes ago, Northwest said:

@mahmood8726 In the interview and other sources he was clearly referring to the Syrian Muslim Brothers’ behaviour during the most recent “civil war” (2011–present) as well.

Yes, but this enmity goes way back, Bashar and his father have always hated the MB, the MB behaviour in the dirty war is more extra stuff, extra fuel to fuel the hatered between the two. 

13 minutes ago, Northwest said:

Starting in the mid-1970s Hafez al-Assad actually made an arrangement of sorts with Israel vs. Arafat’s PLO and its allies. (At the time the PLO was tied to leftists and Iraqi Baathists, i.e., Saddam’s milieu.) In Lebanon, for instance, Assad supported the Israel-backed Lebanese Forces vs. the radical-secular Sunnis, while tacitly agreeing to establish spheres of influence there. During this timeframe—i.e., at the start of Israel’s war in Lebanon (1982)—the local Shias actually sided with Israel vs. the PLO and Co., owing to the latter’s behaviour toward Shias. Both Israel and Syria’s Assad, however unintentionally, did the Shias a favour by supporting the Maronites vs. the PLO and its collaborators. Up until 2005 Israel never directly challenged Syria’s presence in Lebanon, and figures such as Hariri maintained good relations with both the Assad family and Israeli elites, along with the Saudis. (Hariri’s assassination is often blamed on Israel, but in fact a branch of al-Qaida initially claimed responsibility.)

I know syria was against the PLO and I know members of the PLO would slaugther shia muslims because they thought they would get hasanat and go to jannah. But the lebanese civil war was a huge mess, litterally everyone slaugthred eachother, Christian fascists(LF/kataeb) commiting the worst attrocities under israeli assistance. I was unaware hafez helped LF, but it doesn't suprise me, hafez was a tyrant and his rule in Lebanon was disgusting, so it doesn't suprise me if hafez helped LF, however that by no means, means that he was in good standing with Israel, or his son for that matter. 

As for Israel not challenging syrias rule, that's obvious, america was still trying to convince Bashar to accept Israeli normalisation, don't forget Bashar in the early 2000s was still cooperating with the cia and allowing the cia to torture al quaeda terrorists in Syrian prisons.

But, Syria refused to normalise with israel and don't forget the phrase that was commonly repeated back then, which sounds something like:

"All roads from Damascus to the outside world have to go through jerusalem" 

Basically telling Syria to normalise with israel and to stop allowing hezbollah to smuggle weapons. 

 

As for shias supporting israel, I will give you an anecdote, my village was under israeli occupation/SLA(lebanese Christian fascists) occupation and it did not welcome israel, they were seeing how idf soldiers behaved and knew what they did to innocent people. This is one reason im skeptikal about the common claim that shias welcommed israelis with open arms initially and fed them. This might have happened in some villages, but I doubt most did it. 

13 minutes ago, Northwest said:

That could, in fact, indirectly point to a relationship, the public denial being part of the game.

I genuenly think it's unlikley, especially in more recent years. 

[Panzerwaffe]

On 2/11/2025 at 11:23 AM, mahmood8726 said:

Yes, but this enmity goes way back, Bashar and his father have always hated the MB, the MB behaviour in the dirty war is more extra stuff, extra fuel to fuel the hatered between the two. 

I know syria was against the PLO and I know members of the PLO would slaugther shia muslims because they thought they would get hasanat and go to jannah. But the lebanese civil war was a huge mess, litterally everyone slaugthred eachother, Christian fascists(LF/kataeb) commiting the worst attrocities under israeli assistance. I was unaware hafez helped LF, but it doesn't suprise me, hafez was a tyrant and his rule in Lebanon was disgusting, so it doesn't suprise me if hafez helped LF, however that by no means, means that he was in good standing with Israel, or his son for that matter. 

As for Israel not challenging syrias rule, that's obvious, america was still trying to convince Bashar to accept Israeli normalisation, don't forget Bashar in the early 2000s was still cooperating with the cia and allowing the cia to torture al quaeda terrorists in Syrian prisons.

But, Syria refused to normalise with israel and don't forget the phrase that was commonly repeated back then, which sounds something like:

"All roads from Damascus to the outside world have to go through jerusalem" 

Basically telling Syria to normalise with israel and to stop allowing hezbollah to smuggle weapons. 

 

As for shias supporting israel, I will give you an anecdote, my village was under israeli occupation/SLA(lebanese Christian fascists) occupation and it did not welcome israel, they were seeing how idf soldiers behaved and knew what they did to innocent people. This is one reason im skeptikal about the common claim that shias welcommed israelis with open arms initially and fed them. This might have happened in some villages, but I doubt most did it. 

I genuenly think it's unlikley, especially in more recent years. 

As a eye witness

What do you recommend for TO&E , and Order of battle for different Lebanon civil war factions

Thanks 

[mahmood8726]

3 hours ago, Panzerwaffe said:

As a eye witness

What do you recommend for TTO&E , and Order of battle for different Lebanon civil war factions

Thanks 

Too bad I wasn't born then, it's my families anecdote who lived through it.

 

If you want an answer: mayhem, just pure disorganized mayhem. 

A lot of guerilla warfare too against the Israelis. 

[Panzerwaffe]

37 minutes ago, mahmood8726 said:

Too bad I wasn't born then, it's my families anecdote who lived through it.

 

If you want an answer: mayhem, just pure disorganized mayhem. 

A lot of guerilla warfare too against the Israelis. 

What was the typical size of militias of jumbalat , Shamoon , Arafat , jamayel etc ?

atleast personal numbers and any supporting units esp mechanized ones 

[Abu Nur]

When you look the current situation and how eager US want to restore the ties with Russia and Putin also want to do so, you start to realize that Syrian fall was a betray of Russia over Trump.

[Northwest]

Upon further review, I now think that Assad might not be totally at fault for his behaviour. There seems to be some evidence that Assad might have been forced out—perhaps even betrayed by some members of his circle. The Iranian Foreign Minister claimed that both Assad and the Iranians were taken off guard by the collapse; in fact, no one in the Syrian or Iranian government seems to have understood the situation (!), despite the fact that a 130,000-man SAA effectively melted away. Local sources have claimed that high-ranking generals were bribed to abandon their positions. (To illustrate: Putin said that Aleppo surrendered to just 350 insurgents.) As early as 30 November there were rumours of clashes between an SAA division and the President‘s Republican Guard in Damascus, along with assertions that the head of Syrian civil intelligence, Hossam Louka, was bribed by Qatari and/or Turkish intelligence. Moreover, Iranian diplomats, while finding the situation unexpected, apparently believed that a military coup (“sedition”) was underway. If members of his inner circle or even his own family betrayed him, then Assad might well have reason to say nothing about his departure. (All this could also explain why he never gave a speech before leaving; he might have literally been powerless by then.) Does anyone have thoughts about this?

[Northwest]

On 2/11/2025 at 8:23 PM, mahmood8726 said:

Yes, but this enmity goes way back, Bashar and his father have always hated the MB, the MB behaviour in the dirty war is more extra stuff, extra fuel to fuel the hatered between the two. 

I know syria was against the PLO and I know members of the PLO would slaugther shia muslims because they thought they would get hasanat and go to jannah. But the lebanese civil war was a huge mess, litterally everyone slaugthred eachother, Christian fascists(LF/kataeb) commiting the worst attrocities under israeli assistance. I was unaware hafez helped LF, but it doesn't suprise me, hafez was a tyrant and his rule in Lebanon was disgusting, so it doesn't suprise me if hafez helped LF, however that by no means, means that he was in good standing with Israel, or his son for that matter. 

As for Israel not challenging syrias rule, that's obvious, america was still trying to convince Bashar to accept Israeli normalisation, don't forget Bashar in the early 2000s was still cooperating with the cia and allowing the cia to torture al quaeda terrorists in Syrian prisons.

But, Syria refused to normalise with israel and don't forget the phrase that was commonly repeated back then, which sounds something like:

"All roads from Damascus to the outside world have to go through jerusalem" 

Basically telling Syria to normalise with israel and to stop allowing hezbollah to smuggle weapons. 

As for shias supporting israel, I will give you an anecdote, my village was under israeli occupation/SLA(lebanese Christian fascists) occupation and it did not welcome israel, they were seeing how idf soldiers behaved and knew what they did to innocent people. This is one reason im skeptikal about the common claim that shias welcommed israelis with open arms initially and fed them. This might have happened in some villages, but I doubt most did it. 

I genuenly think it's unlikley, especially in more recent years. 

@mahmood8726 Re: ISIS Sinai, I recently relocated a few articles from 2013 that may shed some light on the matter. In April a Salafi spokesman, Mohamad Abou Samra, threatened the Muslim Brotherhood, claiming that Morsi’s regime was not applying Islamic law properly, and even urged Morsi’s ouster. A month later, just before Sisi’s coup, the same spokesman stated that if the Armed Forces were to act, his group would not come out to defend Morsi. He said that his Salafi movement would henceforth exclude the Muslim Brotherhood from any post-Morsi regime that might emerge, going so far as to assert that his movement would regard Morsi and Co., not the military, as its primary enemies. When asked about Salafi militants (future ISIS nuclei) in Sinai, he described them as “committed and respectable.” His interviewer then pointed out that these groups had consistently refused to attack Israel, a point that Samra reaffirmed, noting that Salafi militants would respect the Camp David Agreement (“the framework of the Egyptian State”)! So ISIS Sinai does seem to have had some kind of relationship with Israel, if not the Egyptian military regime. If I recall correctly there were some claims that the ISIS insurgency in Sinai was either exaggerated or partly fabricated to ensure Israeli–Egyptian cooperation vs. Hamas and the Bedouin there.

[Haji 2003]

On 4/1/2025 at 6:20 PM, Northwest said:

Local sources have claimed that high-ranking generals were bribed to abandon their positions.

Very similar in my opinion to what happened to Saddam and Gaddafi. In each instance, you find a few military people and pay the right amount of bribes and that's it.

In the cases of Assad and Gaddafi, I wonder if their mistake was cosying up to countries that had previously been enemies. In both instances, the greater international contact made the work of foreign intelligence agencies easier.