Has the Axis of resistance failed

[AbdusSibtayn]

6 minutes ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

I understand your sarcasm brother. May Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَ تَعَالَى) bless you.

I will however say that with the Hamas solidarity statement to their Syrian rebel brothers, and the Saddam (la) pictures being paraded and circled around, it did remind me of this particular video.

This was in 2003. I wonder who could have predicted a group of Saddamists would betray the Shi'a at their time of need - just a decade later? 

Ali b. Husayn (عليه السلام) said: You must not associate with a fasiq; he may sell you for a single loaf or even less to this or that person. (al-Kafi)

Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَ تَعَالَى) has exposed their treachery, but unfortunately some brothers will never be convinced of their nature.

174 - وعن أبي عبد الله عليه السلام قال: ما من مؤمنين إلا وبينهما حجاب، فإن قال له، لست لي بولي فقد كفر، فإن اتهمه فقد انماث الايمان في قلبه، كما ينماث الملح في الماء.

 

174. It has been reported that Abu 'Abd Allah ((عليه السلام)) said: Between every two believers there is a covering (that binds them); if one of them says to the other, 'you are not a friend to me' then he commits apostasy; and if he accuses him of something, faith will dissolve in his heart like salt in water.

 

Kitāb al-Muʾmin, What Allah (azwj) has Forbidden a Believer to do Against a Fellow Believer, Hadith #4

 

https://thaqalayn.net/hadith/30/1/8/4

[Diaz]

58 minutes ago, AbdusSibtayn said:

Did I overdo it????? 

These posts are satire @Abu Nur @Diaz @Ibn Tayyar

I know but you made be cry 

[AbdusSibtayn]

5 minutes ago, Diaz said:

I know but you made be cry 

I'll pray nawafil on your behalf. As a token of apology. 

[Eddie Mecca]

On 12/8/2024 at 3:07 AM, Ibn Tayyar said:

While you are focusing on the geopolitical results of Taliban rule

Iran decided to interact with the Taliban and then this happened:

1.) No more America along Iran's eastern border 

2.) No more American puppet regime next door 

3.) Taliban offered condolences and publicly condemned the assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani

4.) Iran building schools and sponsoring media outlets in Kabul

5.) Taliban aligning with Iranian policy vis-à-vis Israeli genocide of Palestinians. In July 2024, "foreign ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Taliban discussed taking “joint action” against Israel. The Taliban and Iran have cooperated in the past to oust the US from Afghanistan and overthrow the Afghan government. Iranian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Affairs Hassan Kazemi Qomi stated that “if need be, a martyrdom division from Afghanistan is prepared to fight in Gaza,” adding that “the way we see it, Afghanistan is also part of the Axis of Resistance.”

@Ibn Tayyar, the 5 points I listed help the Hazara community in Afghanistan...from Saudi-sponsorship to Iranian-sponsored madressas...from Pakistan ISI flavored media apparatus to an Iranian-based one

[Eddie Mecca]

^^^The "Al Khorasani" mentioned in End Times narrations could be referring to a united Khorasan region under one just banner (i.e. Tehran)...Iran seems to be making positive inroads into Afghanistan but there's still bickering over water (Helmand River) rights and issues related to Afghan refugees in Iran...in'sha Allah Kabul and Tehran will be able to iron out their differences...Pakistan's a tough one...perhaps a coup will happen within the army..Pakistan needs someone like Imran Khan in power...the country was founded by a Shi'i and 17 - 20% of its population is Shi'i...how in the world it became bastion of Wahhabism is beyond me

Edited December 10, 2024 by Eddie Mecca

[Sabrejet]

4 hours ago, Eddie Mecca said:

^^^The "Al Khorasani" mentioned in End Times narrations could be referring to a united Khorasan region under one just banner (i.e. Tehran)...Iran seems to be making positive inroads into Afghanistan but there's still bickering over water (Helmand River) rights and issues related to Afghan refugees in Iran...in'sha Allah Kabul and Tehran will be able to iron out their differences...Pakistan's a tough one...perhaps a coup will happen within the army..Pakistan needs someone like Imran Khan in power...the country was founded by a Shi'i and 17 - 20% of its population is Shi'i...how in the world it became bastion of Wahhabism is beyond me

With this sort of the MI6 and CIA dont need to ally with the Shirazis to wipe out the shia.

 

Our brotherly Maturidi Deobandi Taliban would do it for them without being asked.

[Abu Nur]

23 hours ago, Abu Nur said:

I really believe it is the opposite. Assad started to incline to gulf and they influenced him to go away from Iran that cause him to make wrong decisions. And then the syria event happened. I believe the one who are going to get punished are all these sunnis who sided with Erdogan, Us and Israel.

I just want to add, that Syrian people even those who you see partying about this can be frustrated about Assad the same how we Shias were against Saddam, and they could be many innocent poor among them who have living in harsh sanctions and have no idea what is the political game Erdogan and Natanyau and Biden/Trump are playing. I don't believe such a people deserve any punishment.

I believe anyone who side with evil for evil purposes are going to punished.

[OrthodoxTruth]

5 hours ago, Eddie Mecca said:

Pakistan needs someone like Imran Khan in power...the country was founded by a Shi'i and 17 - 20% of its population is Shi'i...how in the world it became bastion of Wahhabism is beyond me

Simple minds require simple solutions. Gulf founding and “Islamisation” campaign of the government of General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, the dictator of Pakistan (1977-1988), contributed greatly in Sunni radicalisation of the country. That said, when and where (Shia) Muslims weren’t ever persecuted by the “Sunnis”?

[Sabrejet]

3 hours ago, OrthodoxTruth said:

General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, the dictator of Pakistan (1977-1988), contributed greatly in Sunni radicalisation of the country

Let's not forget events like the Therhi Massacre. Their murderous sentiments were always there; Zia just ensured a supply of human resources and kalashinkovs for them.

[AbdusSibtayn]

2 hours ago, Sabrejet said:

Let's not forget events like the Therhi Massacre. Their murderous sentiments were always there; Zia just ensured a supply of human resources and kalashinkovs for them.

And then Imran Khan institutionalized that hate with his pandering to the Deobandis for political quid pro quo. His uniform 'nisaab' bil for religious instruction in schools, appointing Deobandi mullas in schools, his looking the other way as the Shia got massacred in the Northwest, his shamelessness culminating in his degenerate behaviour after the Machh massacre. It all went from bad to worse. 

And when he fell into trouble, Fazlur Rahman and Taqi Usmani both deserted him. 

I don't understand how some Shia see him as a better option. May he live to suffer the consequences of his misdeeds. 

[islamicmusic]

The Sufyani (Turkey) took charge in Syria. Iraq will be next. The Sufyani will spread racism, laicism, immorality, corruption to the muslim world and spill the blood of the MENA people (Arabs, Persians, Kurds, Turks) to evacuate the reigon for Greater Israel. It is not just about prophecies about the akhir al zaman. The past doings of the NATO and its "muslim" allies shows what they will do next. Any sane mind with no info on islamic eschatology will differantiate the Resistance Axis from the NATO-Traitor alliance.

Edited December 11, 2024 by islamicmusic

[Guest Light]

On 12/10/2024 at 8:49 PM, Sabrejet said:

Let's not forget events like the Therhi Massacre.

Salam!

Are you from Khairpur Mirs brother? 

[Sabrejet]

3 hours ago, Guest Light said:

Salam!

Are you from Khairpur Mirs brother? 

Wa alaikum as salam. No, but my grandmother lived for a while in Khairpur after partition. My paternal side is Zaidi Syed.

[Ibn Tayyar]

On 12/10/2024 at 5:25 PM, Eddie Mecca said:

Iran decided to interact with the Taliban and then this happened:

1.) No more America along Iran's eastern border 

2.) No more American puppet regime next door 

3.) Taliban offered condolences and publicly condemned the assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani

4.) Iran building schools and sponsoring media outlets in Kabul

5.) Taliban aligning with Iranian policy vis-à-vis Israeli genocide of Palestinians. In July 2024, "foreign ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Taliban discussed taking “joint action” against Israel. The Taliban and Iran have cooperated in the past to oust the US from Afghanistan and overthrow the Afghan government. Iranian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Affairs Hassan Kazemi Qomi stated that “if need be, a martyrdom division from Afghanistan is prepared to fight in Gaza,” adding that “the way we see it, Afghanistan is also part of the Axis of Resistance.”

@Ibn Tayyar, the 5 points I listed help the Hazara community in Afghanistan...from Saudi-sponsorship to Iranian-sponsored madressas...from Pakistan ISI flavored media apparatus to an Iranian-based one

Taliban make flowery statements when it comes to the treatment of the Shi'a.

Unfortunately, reality on the ground is much different.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/203618/Afghan-Shias-urge-Taliban-to-cancel-Muharram-restrictions

[mahmood8726]

@Ibn Tayyar

 

You might be right that the events in Syria actually influenced hezbollah to sign this ceasefire and compromise atleast on their goal to not seperate Gaza. 

Why am I saying this? Because hezbollah knew Syria would fall, they're the ones who warned Bashar and he didn't listen to them, it's why sheikh Naim qassem for months stopped saying they will link Gaza and Lebanon before the war had came to a temporary stop.

Obviously we cant judge now as the war still isn't over, there is potential Israel will invade Lebanon.

But hezbollahs main priority now is getting the lebanese people united, having elections and strengthening the lebanese army. Hezbollah even said they are tolerating israels violations because they are commited to implementing UN res 1701. It seems they want to stabilize lebanese society before doing something and now that Syria fell they're being more careful.

 

If the ceasefire ends up being permanent, then that means it's neither a victory or failure, it's a bitter stalemate because the Northern settlers are scared and Israel hasn't conquered Lebanon and hezbollah had to seperate Gaza because of what they anticipated would happen in Syria. 

[Ibn Tayyar]

21 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

If the ceasefire ends up being permanent, then that means it's neither a victory or failure, it's a bitter stalemate because the Northern settlers are scared and Israel hasn't conquered Lebanon and hezbollah had to seperate Gaza because of what they anticipated would happen in Syria. 

Hezbollah did not enter this war to displace some settlers for the sake of displacement, they entered to pressure Israel into a permanent ceasefire with Gaza.

If what you say about Syria is true, that Hezbollah knew that Assad was basically finished, then Israel was not only able to take Hezbollah out of the fight with a ceasefire and solely focus on Gaza, but also ended up destroying the multi-decades built capabilities of the Syrian Army (& Iran in Syria), all the while capturing Syrian territory with impunity, and with basically no restraint on its behaviour and no strategic damage to the IOF's capabilities. 

Whether by Israeli design or whether the circumstances favoured Israel, the Israelis have come out of this post-October 7 period much stronger than before it. I believe you can admit that. They are in a much better position both geopolitically and militarily.

In actuality, all Hezbollah did was displace Northern settlers for the sake of displacing them, and returned back to the 1701 UNSC Resolution of 2006, while losing their first in line command structure. 

Whether the Northern settlers return to their homes or go live somewhere else in Israel, it does nothing to the overall stability of the Israeli State, not now, nor in the future. Most of the richer Israelis in Tel Aviv and Haifa couldn't care less about them anyway.

Israel knew that settlers would be displaced in any war with Hezbollah which is why they had evacuation plans in the first place. 

So what was achieved by Hezbollah? Survival... that's it? Is this what you personally expected to be achieved in October 8 2023 when Hezbollah entered the war? 

I will make another prediction: When the war ends in Gaza, Hamas will not be the sole ruler of Gaza. The Arab League will also have more sway on Gaza than it ever has. 

[mahmood8726]

14 minutes ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Hezbollah did not enter this war to displace some settlers for the sake of displacement, they entered to pressure Israel into a permanent ceasefire with Gaza.

I never claimed that. 

Hezbollah did it to pressure Israel into a ceasefire with Gaza(the war isn't over so we can't make conclusions yet) and to prevent Israel from invading Lebanon, Israel planned to do an imminent invasion of Lebanon around the time hamas launched its attack, even before Oct 7, it's why when hamas launched its attack preemptivley, hezbollah followed suit on oct 8. 

14 minutes ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

If what you say about Syria is true, that Hezbollah knew that Assad was basically finished, then Israel was not only able to take Hezbollah out of the fight with a ceasefire and solely focus on Gaza, but also ended up destroying the multi-decades built capabilities of the Syrian Army (& Iran in Syria), all the while capturing Syrian territory with impunity, and with basically no restraint on its behaviour and no strategic damage to the IOF's capabilities. 

That means hezb and Iran will have to rely on contingencies, they did mention alternative routes, it will take back the resistance decades.

14 minutes ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Whether by Israeli design or whether the circumstances favoured Israel, the Israelis have come out of this post-October 7 period much stronger than before it. I believe you can admit that. They are in a much better position both geopolitically and militarily.

They have come out stronger geopolitically, but they have weakened millitarly and economically and politically(PR), this is not my opinion, but even the opinion of israeli experts themselves, israeli economists, and Israeli generals. 

14 minutes ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

In actuality, all Hezbollah did was displace Northern settlers for the sake of displacing them, and returned back to the 1701 UNSC Resolution of 2006, while losing their first in line command structure. 

They recovered their first line of command structure, hezbollah prepared to loose them all and the proof is hezbollah did not collapse. 

 

Israel wanted to impose it's own conditions and alter UN res 1701, Israel was forced to compromise and accept the status quoe before 2023 because hezbollah was hurting it a lot. Israel is now pretending that it forced hezbollah to sign an altered version of UN res 1701 which allows it to be on lebanese airspace and strike hezb, but that has been denied by the lebanese government, UN, hezbollah, French government and even the US government I beleive, israel is only pretending it signed this mythical altered version of UN res 1701 to look strong to its population whilst they violate the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon. 

14 minutes ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Whether the Northern settlers return to their homes or go live somewhere else in Israel, it does nothing to the overall stability of the Israeli State, not now, nor in the future. Most of the richer Israelis in Tel Aviv and Haifa couldn't care less about them anyway.

That's false, not even Israelis agree with you or pretend like it's not effecting them, that internal displacement in Israel was bad for its economy and stability, really bad, especially when you consider the fact Israel is a state of settlers and not natives.

14 minutes ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Israel knew that settlers would be displaced in any war with Hezbollah which is why they had evacuation plans in the first place. 

To bad that's not what happened in reality, Israel was not prepared for a war of attrition, it badly effected their economy and stability, your statement is just false, you're assuming Israel prepared for a year long conflict when they didn't. 

14 minutes ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

So what was achieved by Hezbollah? Survival... that's it? Is this what you personally expected to be achieved in October 8 2023 when Hezbollah entered the war? 

No.

Israel just wasted decades worth of human resources, intelligence, satellite data, because now the entire command line of hezbollah was destroyed and its been replaced by unknown people. Problem is for Israel, they don't have another decade to spare. 

Hezbollah destroyed israeli infrastructure so badly that a lot of it would take years or even a decade to rebuild and repair, as admitted by Israeli mayors and people who work in these places themselves. 

Hezbollah spread out the Israeli army for a year and a few months which changed the outcome of the war in Gaza drastically. As I said the war isn't over yet, so nothing can be concluded yet, but it defenetly changed a lot of things. 

Hezbollah made Israel bleed a lot of money and American aid is not the fix you think it is. 

When Israel entered Lebanon, they exposed themselves a lot, a lot of people were alienated by Gaza because it was fully beseiged, Lebanon however was only half beseiged by israel and not fully beseiged like in 2006, which made it easier to document israeli warcrimes and expose them in Lebanon. 

Hezbollah showed israels iron dome weakness and studied all of it for a future conflict, now they have a huge amount of intel on Israel's defences to work on. 

Hezbollah made Israel realise that they could not invade Lebanon and occupy it and they would be stupid to try that adventure again. 

Hezbollah now has a good idea of who will be the agitators and collaborators within lebanese society. 

Hezbollah now will learn to better hide it's leaders and commanders. Hezbollah will now check its electronics for explosives.

Hezbollah now knows how Israel launches invasions into Lebanon, instead of relying on 2006 data. 

And much more. 

[Abu Hadi]

22 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

@Ibn Tayyar

 

 

Why am I saying this? Because hezbollah knew Syria would fall, they're the ones who warned Bashar and he didn't listen to them, it's why sheikh Naim qassem for months stopped saying they will link Gaza and Lebanon before the war had came to a temporary stop.

Obviously we cant judge now as the war still isn't over, there is potential Israel will invade Lebanon.

But hezbollahs main priority now is getting the lebanese people united, having elections and strengthening the lebanese army. Hezbollah even said they are tolerating israels violations because they are commited to implementing UN res 1701. It seems they want to stabilize lebanese society before doing something and now that Syria fell they're being more careful.

 

If the ceasefire ends up being permanent, then that means it's neither a victory or failure, it's a bitter stalemate because the Northern settlers are scared and Israel hasn't conquered Lebanon and hezbollah had to seperate Gaza because of what they anticipated would happen in Syria. 

Very good analysis Brother ! What you said makes sense. I think it is very possible that Hezb knew that Syria would fall and so they agreed to a ceasefire to prepare for a possible 'full on' Israeli invasion of Lebanon, like in 1982. It seems that Zionists are 'full of themselves' at this point after their victory in Syria. A full on invasion is very possible at this point with the Help of the Axis of Evil (i.e. Israel, Turkey, US, UK, France). 

Some people are criticizing them for pulling back on helping Gaza, but you can't help someone else when you are under this kind of imminent threat and danger. 

[Ibn Tayyar]

3 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

I never claimed that. 

Hezbollah did it to pressure Israel into a ceasefire with Gaza(the war isn't over so we can't make conclusions yet) and to prevent Israel from invading Lebanon, Israel planned to do an imminent invasion of Lebanon around the time hamas launched its attack, even before Oct 7, it's why when hamas launched its attack preemptivley, hezbollah followed suit on oct 8. 

The war is over brother. It is finished. Shaykh Naeem has pretty much said so himself. 

Israeli cabinet differed amongst themselves on whether to go to war against Hezbollah on October 7 or not. Gallant and some IOF Generals were among those who were supportive of that idea, but Netanyahu made the decision not to go to war due to US pressure. The US also showed its backing to Israel by increasing its presence in the Middle East and instantly sending billions of dollars worth of arms and intelligence support.

4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

That means hezb and Iran will have to rely on contingencies, they did mention alternative routes, it will take back the resistance decades.

So that's a set back. The definition of failure.

4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

They have come out stronger geopolitically, but they have weakened millitarly and economically and politically(PR), this is not my opinion, but even the opinion of israeli experts themselves, israeli economists, and Israeli generals. 

 

 

How have they been weakened militarily? They don't even have to worry about Syria anymore. Their position is stronger than it ever has been. 

Because they lost soldiers and equipment? Because some of their bases got hit? 

My brother, the axis lost a whole country with its entire Army and every single strategic piece of equipment that came with it. They lost their most important logistical route. 

Compare the losses of both sides and tell me who is in a better position now. That's how you know who is in a better position militarily.

4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

Israel wanted to impose it's own conditions and alter UN res 1701, Israel was forced to compromise and accept the status quoe before 2023 because hezbollah was hurting it a lot. Israel is now pretending that it forced hezbollah to sign an altered version of UN res 1701 which allows it to be on lebanese airspace and strike hezb, but that has been denied by the lebanese government, UN, hezbollah, French government and even the US government I beleive, israel is only pretending it signed this mythical altered version of UN res 1701 to look strong to its population whilst they violate the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon. 

So you are satisfied that Hezbollah gave away all of those martyrs to simply return to the status quo? Was that the point of the war? 

4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

 That's false, not even Israelis agree with you or pretend like it's not effecting them, that internal displacement in Israel was bad for its economy and stability, really bad, especially when you consider the fact Israel is a state of settlers and not natives.

To bad that's not what happened in reality, Israel was not prepared for a war of attrition, it badly effected their economy and stability, your statement is just false, you're assuming Israel prepared for a year long conflict when they didn't. 

I find it strange how brothers like to mention the economic and infrastructure damage Israel suffered, as if Lebanon did not suffer multiple times the damage. 

Why do you view it as a success for Hezbollah to destroy Israeli infrastructure, displace settlers and cause economic damages, but not a success for Israel when it destroys Lebanese infrastructure, displaces Lebanese citzens and caused economic damage to Lebanon? 

Let us compare the damage.

This article illustrates the Israeli Government's estimation of the damage:

https://www.jns.org/northern-israels-war-toll-5b-shekels-in-damage-and-counting/

Based on their figures, it seems to be $450 million in direct damages and over $1 billion in indirect damages. Let us assume they are lowballing the figure and it is actually $2 billion in damages overall.

How does that compare to what Lebanon suffered?

Well, the figures are dire.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/11/israel-hezbollah-war-cost-lebanon-85b-damaged-100000-homes-world-bank

And this is a country with one of the worst performing economies in the entire world, that was swimming in debt and deadlocked in a political crisis even before the war.

What about economic growth? Israel is projected by the World Bank to return to positive GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, while Lebanon will probably still be contracting.

So Israel will rebuild quicker with less expenses, and less suffering for its economy and its people.

Why is that not factored in your analysis? Does Lebanon's losses not count for some reason? 

4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

Israel just wasted decades worth of human resources, intelligence, satellite data, because now the entire command line of hezbollah was destroyed and its been replaced by unknown people. Problem is for Israel, they don't have another decade to spare. 

Why was it wasted? Do you personally know that Hezbollah has cleaned its entire organisation from the intel penetration? Or is that just an assumption?

And why don't they have another decade to spare? What will happen in a decade that will cause them despair? 

4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

Hezbollah spread out the Israeli army for a year and a few months which changed the outcome of the war in Gaza drastically. As I said the war isn't over yet, so nothing can be concluded yet, but it defenetly changed a lot of things. 

Brother, the war is over. The reason you don't want to believe the war is over is because it means that all the talk about not delinking from Gaza until a ceasefire is reached no matter the cost would be pretty much in vain.

What changed for Gazans? 

4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:

Hezbollah made Israel bleed a lot of money and American aid is not the fix you think it is. 

When Israel entered Lebanon, they exposed themselves a lot, a lot of people were alienated by Gaza because it was fully beseiged, Lebanon however was only half beseiged by israel and not fully beseiged like in 2006, which made it easier to document israeli warcrimes and expose them in Lebanon. 

Hezbollah showed israels iron dome weakness and studied all of it for a future conflict, now they have a huge amount of intel on Israel's defences to work on. 

Hezbollah made Israel realise that they could not invade Lebanon and occupy it and they would be stupid to try that adventure again. 

Hezbollah now has a good idea of who will be the agitators and collaborators within lebanese society. 

Hezbollah now will learn to better hide it's leaders and commanders. Hezbollah will now check its electronics for explosives.

Hezbollah now knows how Israel launches invasions into Lebanon, instead of relying on 2006 data. 

And much more. 

Unfortunately, American aid is a big fix whether we like it or not. The aid that the US gave Israel is nothing but a speck in the US economy. 

Israel's warcrimes are known to the world. I don't see how that changes anything?

Israel never claimed Iron Dome is a magic system and said that it could be saturated, but Israel would be worse off without an Iron Dome for sure. It is the only system of its class (anti-rocket and anti-artillery) in the world that has been repeatedly been used in battle.

Why can't you also look at it the other way, which is that Israel may have also learnt from this conflict, and can now upgrade the Iron Dome or make a manufacture an even better system based on their battle experience? In warfare, both sides learn and adapt to eachother. 

I personally think both sides would have learnt from eachother. I don't see it as a one side thing at all.

Hezbollah did show that Israel cannot occupy Lebanon without significant or unbearable losses. That is true. 

I think you just focus on what Hezbollah learnt, and discount anything Israel has learnt.

This is the same issue of all Arabs, they always underestimate their enemy. In 2006, it was actually the Israelis who underestimated Hezbollah, which is why they were defeated. This time, they did not underestimate Hezbollah, they didn't venture deep into Lebanon. They learned from their mistakes, clearly. 

[Irfani313]

51 minutes ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

The war is over brother. It is finished. Shaykh Naeem has pretty much said so himself. 

Israeli cabinet differed amongst themselves on whether to go to war against Hezbollah on October 7 or not. Gallant and some IOF Generals were among those who were supportive of that idea, but Netanyahu made the decision not to go to war due to US pressure. The US also showed its backing to Israel by increasing its presence in the Middle East and instantly sending billions of dollars worth of arms and intelligence support.

So that's a set back. The definition of failure.

How have they been weakened militarily? They don't even have to worry about Syria anymore. Their position is stronger than it ever has been. 

Because they lost soldiers and equipment? Because some of their bases got hit? 

My brother, the axis lost a whole country with its entire Army and every single strategic piece of equipment that came with it. They lost their most important logistical route. 

Compare the losses of both sides and tell me who is in a better position now. That's how you know who is in a better position militarily.

So you are satisfied that Hezbollah gave away all of those martyrs to simply return to the status quo? Was that the point of the war? 

I find it strange how brothers like to mention the economic and infrastructure damage Israel suffered, as if Lebanon did not suffer multiple times the damage. 

Why do you view it as a success for Hezbollah to destroy Israeli infrastructure, displace settlers and cause economic damages, but not a success for Israel when it destroys Lebanese infrastructure, displaces Lebanese citzens and caused economic damage to Lebanon? 

Let us compare the damage.

This article illustrates the Israeli Government's estimation of the damage:

https://www.jns.org/northern-israels-war-toll-5b-shekels-in-damage-and-counting/

Based on their figures, it seems to be $450 million in direct damages and over $1 billion in indirect damages. Let us assume they are lowballing the figure and it is actually $2 billion in damages overall.

How does that compare to what Lebanon suffered?

Well, the figures are dire.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/11/israel-hezbollah-war-cost-lebanon-85b-damaged-100000-homes-world-bank

And this is a country with one of the worst performing economies in the entire world, that was swimming in debt and deadlocked in a political crisis even before the war.

What about economic growth? Israel is projected by the World Bank to return to positive GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, while Lebanon will probably still be contracting.

So Israel will rebuild quicker with less expenses, and less suffering for its economy and its people.

Why is that not factored in your analysis? Does Lebanon's losses not count for some reason? 

Why was it wasted? Do you personally know that Hezbollah has cleaned its entire organisation from the intel penetration? Or is that just an assumption?

And why don't they have another decade to spare? What will happen in a decade that will cause them despair? 

Brother, the war is over. The reason you don't want to believe the war is over is because it means that all the talk about not delinking from Gaza until a ceasefire is reached no matter the cost would be pretty much in vain.

What changed for Gazans? 

Unfortunately, American aid is a big fix whether we like it or not. The aid that the US gave Israel is nothing but a speck in the US economy. 

Israel's warcrimes are known to the world. I don't see how that changes anything?

Israel never claimed Iron Dome is a magic system and said that it could be saturated, but Israel would be worse off without an Iron Dome for sure. It is the only system of its class (anti-rocket and anti-artillery) in the world that has been repeatedly been used in battle.

Why can't you also look at it the other way, which is that Israel may have also learnt from this conflict, and can now upgrade the Iron Dome or make a manufacture an even better system based on their battle experience? In warfare, both sides learn and adapt to eachother. 

I personally think both sides would have learnt from eachother. I don't see it as a one side thing at all.

Hezbollah did show that Israel cannot occupy Lebanon without significant or unbearable losses. That is true. 

I think you just focus on what Hezbollah learnt, and discount anything Israel has learnt.

This is the same issue of all Arabs, they always underestimate their enemy. In 2006, it was actually the Israelis who underestimated Hezbollah, which is why they were defeated. This time, they did not underestimate Hezbollah, they didn't venture deep into Lebanon. They learned from their mistakes, clearly. 

This is an honest material based review of the situation from a non-combatant commentator which honestly we all are here. 

Wars, specially wars of liberation are more about the wills and perceptions and not about materials. Colonies always win on number of damage inflicted but lose on long term holdings. 

Due to Zio arrogance and schizophrenic actions, fear is gone from the support population of AOR, because they know that even a slightest skip would cause at least a city block full of deaths. 
 

But due to AOR expanding of their calculated hits, zio population is on extreme uncertain grounds. The promises of free money, guaranteed jobs, and a stolen villa for those one bedroom apartment inhabitants of poor Eastern Europe states is turning out the horrible dream. 
 

IMO it’s not the materials gains or losses that have decided this battle, it’s that shift in perspective that is decisive. In last 70years or so, it’s the first time that the land thieves have slept in hotels or bunkers for over a year. That unsustainably is the one which would kick them back to their dirty townships in old ussr.
 

AOR in its essence doesn’t want a violent end to the colony anyway, killing humanity is stupid and unislamic, as far as I read them, they want to make it ‘it’s not worth it’ choice for Zios.
 

Before 2024, it was a ‘walk in the park’ choice for them, now it’s more of a ‘over her teenager son’s dead body’ sort of choice.  
 

[mahmood8726]

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

The war is over brother. It is finished. Shaykh Naeem has pretty much said so himself. 

The front in Lebanon and war in Lebanon, not the war with Gaza which could cause the war in Lebanon to reignite easily.

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Israeli cabinet differed amongst themselves on whether to go to war against Hezbollah on October 7 or not. Gallant and some IOF Generals were among those who were supportive of that idea, but Netanyahu made the decision not to go to war due to US pressure. The US also showed its backing to Israel by increasing its presence in the Middle East and instantly sending billions of dollars worth of arms and intelligence support.

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

So that's a set back. The definition of failure.

Yes over Syria, I said this a million times. Where did I claim Syria was a success? Obviously hezbollah lost in Syria, that's what lead hezbollah I beleive to compromise on Gaza. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

How have they been weakened militarily? They don't even have to worry about Syria anymore. Their position is stronger than it ever has been. 

Because they lost soldiers and equipment? Because some of their bases got hit? 

That's the geopolitical aspect of it, not the millitary aspect of it. Yes they lost a lot millitarly to the point where the desertion rate was high. They lost a lot of equipment and bases too, not just "some", many of these bases will take years to repair. Again, look at Israelis themselves and what they're saying. Having better positions in mountains in Syria does not negate the millitary looses Israel suffered. As for Israel invading lebanon from another side of the border, hezbollah also prepared for this, there were warnings for months that Israel was going to send mechanized divisions and invade the Golan and Syria and try and attack from the north east of Lebanon instead of the south. Spoiler alert, Israel won't succede again when they decide to go full retard again due to their arrogance and beleif that hezbollah is finished because of Syria being gone.

All of this does not get rid of Israel's losses millitarly, you can't just pretend like Israel is some magical country that can just recover the thousands of millitary casualties it just had in an instant and get some package from America which will magically fix most things. You're trying very hard to make it a failure for hezbollah that you're failing to see objectively that these losses on Israel's side are not something you can just gloss over.

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

My brother, the axis lost a whole country with its entire Army and every single strategic piece of equipment that came with it. They lost their most important logistical route. 

As I said a million times that's one of the losses of hezbollah. You're speaking in black and white as if this is only a win or failure situation, but the reality is as I said, it's more of a stalemate, it's a bitter ending to both sides if this is permanent. You should stop obsessing over trying to make this a defeat for hezbollah and actually look at it objectively, if this ends up being permanent, both lost and won, this is a bitter end. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Compare the losses of both sides and tell me who is in a better position now. That's how you know who is in a better position militarily.

Israel lost a lot of equipment millitarly and lost a lot of soldiers due to deaths or injured or ptsd, this is not something you can just gloss over considering Israeli society is extreemly averse to casualties and deaths, something I will elaborate below.

Hezbollahs weaponry is mostly stored underground and they produce their stuff domestically importing only the sophisticated stuff from Iran through Syria. Most of the things Israel hit were civilian areas or extra weaponry that was stored above ground. Don't fall for Israel's PR where they tell you they destroyed 80% of hezbs missiles, this is stuff they said for decades and were proven multiple times to be wrong. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

So you are satisfied that Hezbollah gave away all of those martyrs to simply return to the status quo? Was that the point of the war? 

I repeated this hundreds of times and I won't repeat it again. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

I find it strange how brothers like to mention the economic and infrastructure damage Israel suffered, as if Lebanon did not suffer multiple times the damage. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Why do you view it as a success for Hezbollah to destroy Israeli infrastructure, displace settlers and cause economic damages, but not a success for Israel when it destroys Lebanese infrastructure, displaces Lebanese citzens and caused economic damage to Lebanon? 

Let us compare the damage.

This article illustrates the Israeli Government's estimation of the damage:

https://www.jns.org/northern-israels-war-toll-5b-shekels-in-damage-and-counting/

Based on their figures, it seems to be $450 million in direct damages and over $1 billion in indirect damages. Let us assume they are lowballing the figure and it is actually $2 billion in damages overall.

How does that compare to what Lebanon suffered?

Well, the figures are dire.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/11/israel-hezbollah-war-cost-lebanon-85b-damaged-100000-homes-world-bank

And this is a country with one of the worst performing economies in the entire world, that was swimming in debt and deadlocked in a political crisis even before the war.

What about economic growth? Israel is projected by the World Bank to return to positive GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, while Lebanon will probably still be contracting.

So Israel will rebuild quicker with less expenses, and less suffering for its economy and its people.

Why is that not factored in your analysis? Does Lebanon's losses not count for some reason? 

Simple, Lebanon is accustomed to losing a lot economically, Lebanese people are natives not settlers who can just flee with dual citizenship. Its why israel compromised in its deal despite not loosing as much as hezbollah. Israeli society is extreemly averse to material losses, casualties and deaths, this has been known over and over again for decades to the point where they pioneered tech to not suffer a lot. Israelis love this Dunya a lot, way more than the lebanese people atleast and they scare easily. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Why was it wasted? Do you personally know that Hezbollah has cleaned its entire organisation from the intel penetration? Or is that just an assumption?

I never said hezbollah cleaned all of its org from traitors, you're misunderstanding my point. I'm talking specifically about human resources, intel, satellite data, etc... traitors inside hezbollah being the sole reason or mostly the reason for getting these commanders killed is something you're assuming yourself. The claim that hezbollah has deep penetration within its org is also something not substantiated and a claim that comes from people who don't understand these things. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

And why don't they have another decade to spare? What will happen in a decade that will cause them despair? 

The war in Lebanon has a high chance of reigniting especially with the fall of Syria and Israel's constant violations, hezbollah even told Israel last week they will escalate if Israel doesn't stop and Israel isn't stopping.

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Brother, the war is over. The reason you don't want to believe the war is over is because it means that all the talk about not delinking from Gaza until a ceasefire is reached no matter the cost would be pretty much in vain.

No, you want to pretend it's over despite the war in Gaza being still ongoing because you lost way too much hope and you're in despair. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

What changed for Gazans? 

They could have been crushed in a far worse way than now. Again this hasn't ended, so Allahu Alam. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Unfortunately, American aid is a big fix whether we like it or not. The aid that the US gave Israel is nothing but a speck in the US economy. 

Its not a big fix, it's a bandaid.

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Israel's warcrimes are known to the world. I don't see how that changes anything?

Israel is being more and more isolated economically and politically as a paraiah state.

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Israel never claimed Iron Dome is a magic system and said that it could be saturated, but Israel would be worse off without an Iron Dome for sure. It is the only system of its class (anti-rocket and anti-artillery) in the world that has been repeatedly been used in battle.

I never said they claimed it was a magic system.

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Why can't you also look at it the other way, which is that Israel may have also learnt from this conflict, and can now upgrade the Iron Dome or make a manufacture an even better system based on their battle experience? In warfare, both sides learn and adapt to eachother. 

I did, what makes you assume I didn't? I mentionned hezbollahs gains from this. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

I personally think both sides would have learnt from eachother. I don't see it as a one side thing at all.

I never said it was.

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

I think you just focus on what Hezbollah learnt, and discount anything Israel has learnt.

You think wrong. 

3 hours ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

This is the same issue of all Arabs, they always underestimate their enemy. In 2006, it was actually the Israelis who underestimated Hezbollah, which is why they were defeated. This time, they did not underestimate Hezbollah, they didn't venture deep into Lebanon. They learned from their mistakes, clearly. 

No they did not. They killed sayed hassan nassrallah, got arrogant, started boasting that hezbollah was finished, forgot what happened in 2006 and repeated the same mistake and got kicked out. It's the exact same thing they did in 2006 when they tried assasinating sayed hassan nassrallah back then. I remeber when this started i thought they were idiots for invading.

Edited December 16, 2024 by mahmood8726

[mahmood8726]

@Ibn Tayyar you keep misunderstanding me. I keep saying that if this ends up being permanent, then it's neither a loss or a win for both sides. 

Because when this was signed both sides compromised a lot on their part, hezbollah compromised on Gaza Lebanon link because of Syria I beleive and Israel compromised on not occupying Lebanon and returning to the status quoe instead of an amended version of UN res 1701. 

Both achieved victories, israel by forcing hezb to seperate from gaza because of what they did in syria and hezbollah by preventing Israel from invading Lebanon and occupying the country as they planned even before Oct 7 and destroying hezbollah or it's missile capabilities atleast. 

 

There are other success and faliures not mentionned, but these are the most important. That's the important thing to look at, atleast, the objectives determines who wins or looses and neither side seems to have won or lost.

you focused on material losses when responding to my initial post which made us both debate it, but as @Irfani313 stated, that's not the thing that should be focused on, otherwise America would be the winner in Vietnam.

All im saying here is its not as black and white as you're making this out to be. You're falling too much into hopelessness and its preventing you to see the failures of Israel, you're scared that you will have hope again and it will be crushed again by maybe another defeat for the resistance or a stalemate.

 

 

Edited December 16, 2024 by mahmood8726

[Eddie Mecca]

Resistance Axis Demise Is Being Exaggerated - 57 minutes - Anti-Empire Project - w/ Professor Mohammad Marandi - Streamed 15 hours ago

 

[AbdusSibtayn]

I suppose this is enough haggling over if the axis has failed. 

Now don't fail your exams or meeting work deadlines. 

[Abu Hadi]

The axis has failed if the people in those axis countries (Yemen, Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon, and Iran) stop supporting the axis. Syria was a peripheral member (not full member) of the axis even before current events. It isn't about how many battles they win or lose, it is about how much popular support do they have. It doesn't seem that they popular support has decreased much. If anyone wants to argue that the popular support in those countries has decreased significantly in the last month or so, please post the evidence. Otherwise, we accept the status quo, which is that the populations of those countries overwhelmingly support the axis. 

The popular support is what feeds and sustains the movement. Some of us are old enough to have some memories of Iran before the 1979 revolution. I admit I don't have many because I was a small child in 1979 but I know there are some on here who have more memories of this time. Iran has been for more than 500 years a majority Shia country but for that time the country was ruled by secular monarchs like Shah Pahlavi(la). It was only when there became a consensus amoung the people that an Islamic Government was a better solution for the people vs a secular monarchy that they government actually changed and the revolution happened. Imam Khomeni(رضي الله عنه) and others were only guides who guided the people toward the goal of making an Islamic government but without the support of the people it is impossible that it ever could have happened. 

It is the same with the axis. Sayyid Nasrallah(رضي الله عنه) and others are only guides to the people but they are not the axis. The axis is the popular movement that is dependent on the popular support. Like I said, I think this is intact. 

Yes, Syria was a big loss, Assasination of Sayyid Nasrallah(رضي الله عنه) was a big loss, pager attack was a big loss. At the same time, there have also been many wins and I think more wins than loses. Some are that Northern Settlements were cleared out and the buffer zone is actually inside Israel for the first time and eastern buffer zone for Gaza is inside Israel for the first time. This is huge, and a huge hit to their economy and popular support inside the Zionist entity. Also, resistance in Gaza are still making daily attacks against Zionists after 460 days being surrounded and besieged and all borders being closed. This is huge also. Another victory is that Zionists could not establish a foothold inside South Lebanon, even at the border and they are being attacked, even in places where they were not attacked before, such as Tel Aviv. Again, this is a huge blow to their economy and a huge psychological hit that they are taking. 

As long as there are more wins than losses I think the popular support will be there which means the axis will still be able to operate and fight. 

Edited December 21, 2024 by Abu Hadi

[OrthodoxTruth]

 

[Ibn Tayyar]

On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:

The front in Lebanon and war in Lebanon, not the war with Gaza which could cause the war in Lebanon to reignite easily.

I doubt there is anything that could happen in Gaza that would reignite the war in Lebanon. There is no more will for another round of fighting in Lebanon.

Despite some breaches, the ceasefire is holding and we are halfway through.

On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:

Yes over Syria, I said this a million times. Where did I claim Syria was a success? Obviously hezbollah lost in Syria, that's what lead hezbollah I beleive to compromise on Gaza. 

I believe the Axis has viewed the war with Israel as one war with multiple fronts, and Syria was one of the fronts. 

I believe it could then be considered that in terms of wins and losses, Israel is the clear geopolitical victor of this war that started on October 7. Would you agree? 

On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:

That's the geopolitical aspect of it, not the millitary aspect of it. Yes they lost a lot millitarly to the point where the desertion rate was high. They lost a lot of equipment and bases too, not just "some", many of these bases will take years to repair. Again, look at Israelis themselves and what they're saying. Having better positions in mountains in Syria does not negate the millitary looses Israel suffered. As for Israel invading lebanon from another side of the border, hezbollah also prepared for this, there were warnings for months that Israel was going to send mechanized divisions and invade the Golan and Syria and try and attack from the north east of Lebanon instead of the south. Spoiler alert, Israel won't succede again when they decide to go full retard again due to their arrogance and beleif that hezbollah is finished because of Syria being gone.

Which bases take years to repair? Any competent engineering division could easily fix a base on short notice. In WW2, bases were subjected to much more ferocious firepower and still remained active. Bases are designed to absorb significant attacks, otherwise there would be no use of them at all. Look at Ukraine, where some bases have been hit mutliple times by heavy missiles and have remained and continue to remain of importance.

To "disable" a base, you don't just cause cracks in concrete, you must destroy or damage actual equipment or kill personnel. I don't doubt that Hezbollah was able to do so, in fact I believe it was able to inflict alot of pain on Israel, I just don't agree with you on how valuable this damage really is.

In the 1973 war, Israeli losses in equipment and personnel were much more significant in both numbers and importance, than in this war. Way more, not even close. Yet they were able to finish that war in 1973 in a pretty strong military position. What does this tell you? That Israel's military is able to absorb losses. It is able to adapt to losses. These losses then become "tactical", not really strategic in any sense. Especially when you have a supplier like the US (which saved Israel in 1973).

The main strength of Israel is its Airforce, and even after all these rocket and missile attacks, the Israeli Airforce remained in the battle without showing any signs of slowing down.

Hezbollah's inability to inflict strategic damage on the Israeli Airforce (such as hitting them in their bases) is a military failure, given that denying Israel its Airforce capabilities would probably have been the number one priority for Hezbollah, as that would literally "disable" Israel. Or perhaps they never had the ability to do so, and accepted that. 

On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:

All of this does not get rid of Israel's losses millitarly, you can't just pretend like Israel is some magical country that can just recover the thousands of millitary casualties it just had in an instant and get some package from America which will magically fix most things. You're trying very hard to make it a failure for hezbollah that you're failing to see objectively that these losses on Israel's side are not something you can just gloss over.

Israel had plentiful losses but its ability to recover would be much easier for it than Hezbollah, given Western support and the fact that it is a state which is a regional power.

Like I said, we have proof of that from previous Israeli wars which resulted in high losses. Israel's ability to recover has been witnessed and tested.

Hezbollah on the other hand is a party in a divided country which is supported by one State only and is reliant on a single powerbase, while also being part of an alliance with other parties (some of which weren't even supportive of the war).

On top of that, it has lost its main supply route which would have assisted in the recovery effort. Do you see how the scale is much different? 

On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:

Hezbollahs weaponry is mostly stored underground and they produce their stuff domestically importing only the sophisticated stuff from Iran through Syria. Most of the things Israel hit were civilian areas or extra weaponry that was stored above ground. Don't fall for Israel's PR where they tell you they destroyed 80% of hezbs missiles, this is stuff they said for decades and were proven multiple times to be wrong. 

I don't believe in Israel's 80% assertion, but the truth is that being "underground", while it does help, does not make it "destruction-proof", given we saw how effective American-made bunker busters were in the assassination of both Sayyed Nasrallah and Sayyed Hashem, where the holes literally reached some 60 feet or more in depth. 

What do I believe? Some ammo that is stored underground was also hit, just as the Hezbollah leaders were hit. How much of Hezbollah's arsenal was destroyed or used in the war? I don't know. 

But either way, it will be hard to restock all those rockets given the debacle in Syria. And even if Hezbollah did restore it, the main issue of the Party was the intel penetration in the first place. Israel did not have nowhere near this level of penetration in 2006.

 

Edited December 23, 2024 by Ibn Tayyar

[mahmood8726]

1 hour ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

I doubt there is anything that could happen in Gaza that would reignite the war in Lebanon. There is no more will for another round of fighting in Lebanon.

Neither is there a will for another fighting to continue in Israel, as I stated above. This is besides the point and you missed an important point I mentionned, resistance is fueled by people realizing how evil Israel is, people who had doubts, will join the cause, ask most lebanese people now how they feel about the ceasefire and they're angry Israel is getting away with this, Israel for example destroyed 35% of naqoura before the ceasefire, whilst they destroyed 75% of the city in the last 3 weeks, lebanese people are realizing how useless the lebanese army or international law is at defending Lebanon. And I didn't mention anything about Gaza, I mentionned Lebanon specifically, hoshtein is even planning a visit it seems because the ceasefire is not holding too well, Israel has violated the ceasefire 280 times so far. Nonetheless, hezbollah 2 days ago said they will wait these 60 days and they don't want to give Israel a pretext to attack Lebanon in the remaining of these 60 days, they will focus on Lebanon in this next month.  

 

Remeber in 2006, media was not as present as today, the lebanese people as a whole are seeing israels serious violations. 

1 hour ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Despite some breaches, the ceasefire is holding and we are halfway through.

280 violations is not "some breaches", what Israel is doing is not minor, but again you could be right, after 2006, Israel violated the ceasefire like this by bombing lebanon badly, dahiyeh was 90% destroyed(worse than today) and when they felt good after violating the ceasefire with bombings, they stopped and they only violated another 30000 times with surveillance drones. 

1 hour ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

I believe the Axis has viewed the war with Israel as one war with multiple fronts, and Syria was one of the fronts. 

I believe it could then be considered that in terms of wins and losses, Israel is the clear geopolitical victor of this war that started on October 7. Would you agree? 

Which bases take years to repair?

The ones that were severely damaged, hezb did severely damage many bases, especially border ones with heavy burkan missiles, Israelis are saying this, not me. 

1 hour ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Any competent engineering division could easily fix a base on short notice. In WW2, bases were subjected to much more ferocious firepower and still remained active. Bases are designed to absorb significant attacks, otherwise there would be no use of them at all. Look at Ukraine, where some bases have been hit mutliple times by heavy missiles and have remained and continue to remain of importance.

To "disable" a base, you don't just cause cracks in concrete, you must destroy or damage actual equipment or kill personnel. I don't doubt that Hezbollah was able to do so, in fact I believe it was able to inflict alot of pain on Israel, I just don't agree with you on how valuable this damage really is.

You litterally have hundreds of videos evidence of hezb destroying major parts of a base and killing personnel and you doubt they did anything when they weren't recording it. And you're using ww2 as an example too which is almost a century ago in 20 years. 

Hezb was using burkan 500kg warhead missiles on many of these bases, inflicting serious damage, especially on most of the border bases. 

 

And where did I mention "disable"? I dont remeber saying this. Is it because I said "lost" whilst trying to say they lost a lot of material in these bases? I'm going to be clearer here, I'm referring to the damage to the bases and their material losses which will complicate things for Israel, these bases could still be operational. If I said disable bases or entirely render bases useless, then I meant something else, the bases being out of service are probably a minority I am assuming. 

1 hour ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

In the 1973 war, Israeli losses in equipment and personnel were much more significant in both numbers and importance, than in this war. Way more, not even close. Yet they were able to finish that war in 1973 in a pretty strong military position. What does this tell you? That Israel's military is able to absorb losses. It is able to adapt to losses. These losses then become "tactical", not really strategic in any sense. Especially when you have a supplier like the US (which saved Israel in 1973).

The main strength of Israel is its Airforce, and even after all these rocket and missile attacks, the Israeli Airforce remained in the battle without showing any signs of slowing down.

Hezbollah's inability to inflict strategic damage on the Israeli Airforce (such as hitting them in their bases) is a military failure, given that denying Israel its Airforce capabilities would probably have been the number one priority for Hezbollah, as that would literally "disable" Israel. Or perhaps they never had the ability to do so, and accepted that. 

Israel had plentiful losses but its ability to recover would be much easier for it than Hezbollah, given Western support and the fact that it is a state which is a regional power.

Like I said, we have proof of that from previous Israeli wars which resulted in high losses. Israel's ability to recover has been witnessed and tested.

1 hour ago, Ibn Tayyar said:

Hezbollah on the other hand is a party in a divided country which is supported by one State only and is reliant on a single powerbase, while also being part of an alliance with other parties (some of which weren't even supportive of the war).

On top of that, it has lost its main supply route which would have assisted in the recovery effort. Do you see how the scale is much different? 

I don't believe in Israel's 80% assertion, but the truth is that being "underground", while it does help, does not make it "destruction-proof", given we saw how effective American-made bunker busters were in the assassination of both Sayyed Nasrallah and Sayyed Hashem, where the holes literally reached some 60 feet or more in depth. 

What do I believe? Some ammo that is stored underground was also hit, just as the Hezbollah leaders were hit. How much of Hezbollah's arsenal was destroyed or used in the war? I don't know. 

But either way, it will be hard to restock all those rockets given the debacle in Syria. And even if Hezbollah did restore it, the main issue of the Party was the intel penetration in the first place. Israel did not have nowhere near this level of penetration in 2006.

 

At this point I'm not even going to bother with this, you're making me repeat myself a lot and you're ignoring Israeli sources themselves by using examples from aomost half a century ago or some armchair millitary analysis(no offense meant) to go on to claim that Israel would just recover fast, when their own sources are claiming otherwise, because bases are supposed to take damage and remain operational. Then you're making me repeat myself on Syria for the 4th time now. 

 

You still missed my point entirely and decided to focus on millitary losses and started comparing a conventional army supplied by America to a guerilla fighting group as if this is supposed to be some reciprocal fight. This misses the entire point of guerilla warfare and how they slowly exhaust bigger armies than them despite suffering more losses than said conventional army. They're not supposed to do a shock n awe operation.

Please reread what I put above in my previous post, to understand the actual important point here. Objectives are what matter. Other people here have also put emphasis on this my friend. 

Edited December 23, 2024 by mahmood8726

[mahmood8726]

On 12/21/2024 at 12:35 PM, AbdusSibtayn said:

I suppose this is enough haggling over if the axis has failed. 

Now don't fail your exams or meeting work deadlines. 

Yep, at this point it's pointless to debate about this and let time tell the truth. A lot of people here are assuming things when most of us have 0 idea about what's going on under the table and its leading to discussions in circle. It's better if we returned to this forum in a few months when things would have changed drastically. 

[Eddie Mecca]

I don't know how people can discuss these things in real-time...weeks and months are needed to see through the smoke and evaluate properly...but please administrators...don't close the thread...let's see if the Ferengi Federation (i.e. Shirazi) stance holds any water and let's revisit this thread in a few months...I'm all for constructive criticism of IRI and Resistance Axis...but sadistically mocking and jeering Resistance Axis errors while at the same time portraying white Jews as invincible gods is unflattering and unattractive

Edited December 23, 2024 by Eddie Mecca

[mahmood8726]

1 hour ago, Eddie Mecca said:

I don't know how people can discuss these things in real-time...weeks and months are needed to see through the smoke and evaluate properly...but please administrators...don't close the thread...let's see if the Ferengi Federation (i.e. Shirazi) stance holds any water and let's revisit this thread in a few months...I'm all for constructive criticism of IRI and Resistance Axis...but sadistically mocking and jeering Resistance Axis errors while at the same time portraying white Jews as invincible gods is unflattering and unattractive

No, obviously Israel suffered minimal or no damage and will recover all its losses in 1 week and the news of tens of thousands of injured soldiers, the desertion rate in the israeli army being high because they are going to the same places in gaza 4 times whilst acheiving nothing, Israelis leaving their country more and more and the economy being under strain, their country being politically isolated more and more are all myths, everything is fine in Israeli society, america will fix everything and the axis will be destroyed because israel bombed rockets and Syria is gone. Once irans nuclear sites are bombed, Iran will have regime change and the shah will be monarch again.

Edited December 23, 2024 by mahmood8726

[Eddie Mecca]

Is The Resistance Doomed? Israel Still Losing: Iran, Hezbollah, Yemen HIT BACK w/ Professor Mohammad Marandi - Danny Haiphong - 2 hours 54 minutes - Streamed 7 hours ago

 

[Eddie Mecca]

Against Defeatism and Dispair: Israel Is Not Sustainable and Cannot Win - Dispatches w/ Rania Khalek and Susan Abulhawa - BreakThrough News - 44 minutes - Streamed 1 day ago

 

Edited December 25, 2024 by Eddie Mecca

[Abu Hadi]

On 12/22/2024 at 11:29 PM, mahmood8726 said:

No, obviously Israel suffered minimal or no damage and will recover all its losses in 1 week and the news of tens of thousands of injured soldiers, the desertion rate in the israeli army being high because they are going to the same places in gaza 4 times whilst acheiving nothing, Israelis leaving their country more and more and the economy being under strain, their country being politically isolated more and more are all myths, everything is fine in Israeli society, america will fix everything and the axis will be destroyed because israel bombed rockets and Syria is gone. Once irans nuclear sites are bombed, Iran will have regime change and the shah will be monarch again.

The biggest loss for Zionists in this war is not in terms of equipment and bases. That damage is minimal and could be easily recovered, as some have said, with a supplier like the US Govt (not the people) willing to give unlimited support. 

Even I would say the losses amoung the IDF and the desertions are a problem, but not a huge problem. The losses, although they are much higher that what officials in the Zionist Entity are saying, are not in the hundreds of thousands. That is what they would need to be to say the IDF is defeated. I don't think they are even more than 10,000. The main reason is because IDF almost never come out in the open to fight, man to man. They are either in a tank or on a base surrounded by fortifications. Even in the Quran, it says 'They will not fight you except behind a barrier (fortifications)' 

The airforce (as others have said) has suffered almost no losses and they are continuously supplied with bombs from the US. The effort of the Yemeni and others have slowed that down but not stopped it. 

The main losses are two, and I think these will be the ones that finally end the Zionist State. 

1. Loss of 'image' of Israel in the world. The traditional view of Israel, i.e. the consensus view in the world, up to Oct 7, amoung non interested parties, was of a 'democracy' in the Middle East struggling against an enemy (i.e. the Arabs). I don't think there was particular love for the state, even before Oct. 7 outside of the Zionist community, but there wasn't much enmity. It was pretty neutral. That has completely changed. 

The main thing that changed it was the positing on social media from within Gaza and the fact that these first person accounts could be seen by millions instantly as they happened. This has never been possible before the present time and gave those 'disinterested' parties a first person view of the horrors of genocide right before their eyes. There is only one thing at this point which is preventing the Zionist State from being kicked out of the UN and that is the US Veto. That is a situation that noone could have anticipated a few years ago. 

2. The loss of support for Zionism among young American jews and Christian evangelicals. This has traditionally been the main based of support for Zionism. This is the core of the core. Without this support, which continues to get weaker, Zionism is doomed.  This is what keeps the Zionists up at night, not anything that is happening in Gaza. They are bending over backwards and launching campaign after campaign on social media and it is not having much or any effect. As they say, the horse has left the barn and it's not coming back. The documentary 'Israelism' goes over this in detail. I think it's free on youtube.

This basically shows how the traditional 'pipeline' or 'machine' in the US to brainwash young people to support Zionism has broken down and it continues to break down. The main reason behind this is the same reason worldwide support for Zionism has declined or evaporated. The firsthand accounts from social media on Gaza. Younger people, and especially them, are all over social media and although alot of this content is 'shadow banned' by Zuckerberg and Musk, enough of it gets through the censorship to make a strong case to these young people that Zionism is not a good thing. 

For the axis of resistance to win, they just need to survive. They don't need to hand a military defeat to the Zionist state. They just need to exist long enough to see the above movements come to full fruition then the Zionist state will evaporate like the morning dew when it's hit by the sun. Truth always wins in the end. 

Edited December 25, 2024 by Abu Hadi

[Abu_Zahra]

Completely agree with @Abu Hadi, the Zionist narrative has taken a huge hit. They crossed all the red lines and history will remember them as a lawless, terrorist entity. 

People are starting to realize that supporting them is a waste of their tax money, and once this concern grows stronger the funds will start to dry up.