Lebanon - "Israel" ceasefire 2024

[mahmood8726]

Salam,

 

I'm suprised no one here has brought it up, as it is a huge topic being discussed now.

 

If you have been living in a cave, apparently(not confirmed), tomorow hezbollah and Israel will finalize a ceasefire agreement and within 60 days basically hezbollah has to retreat from top of the laitani river and the lebanese army will take its place with a coalition of foreign countries monitoring it. Israel obviously will not be able to fly drones anymore on top of Lebanon, like they did 39000 times since 2006 and violated the UN resolution and lebanese sovreignty so many times.

 

If this ceasefire deal ends up being true and western media aren't lying like they lied so many thousands of times. I would be curious about what your thoughts would be on this. 

Isn't hezb breaking their promise of not separating Gaza? Sayed hassan nassrallah specifically said, even in a full scale war, they would not separate Gaza. What gives? And how come hamas is happy with this? 

 

For Israel to accept this ceasefire, this means obviously Israel failed in their objective of disarming hezb, removing hezbs missiles capabilities and colonizing Lebanon. They failed miserably on this and Israelis are angry about this deal, to the point that they're organizing a protest tomorow in tel aviv against this deal. Ben givir(la) and smotrich(la), both informed natenyahu(la) of their opposition to this ceasefire deal, but this time didn't threaten to dissolve.

 

Smotrich(la), also remarked they will colonise Gaza and will "cut palestinian population in half by 2 years" after a lot of Israelis illegally settle in Gaza. There is also the threat of ben givir(la), who said he wanted to annex the west bank. Now with hezbollah separating Gaza, these goals of crushing the Palestinians into submission or extinction will be easier than ever. 

 

Then after this, they might attempt to colonise Lebanon again. So why did hezbollah suddenly separate Gaza? Why did hezbollah accept a deal with a desperate Israel that had to send its elite units to an area in Lebanon because they were being burnt so much by hezb? 

Edited November 26, 2024 by mahmood8726

[Irfani313]

There are so many moving parts here, I don’t know if the deal would even go through or would stand for more than a week???
 

There is US, Wall Street, Capitol Hill, and the occupation entity on one side, and there is Hizb, civilians in south Leb., Ghazzans, West Bank, IRI, Yemen, PMU on the other. 
 

There are so many unanswered variables, would AnsarAllah open the Red Sea, would Syria allow the continuation of Idlib and Tanf US occupation after 150k murders in Gaza, and whatever happened to the punishment for the ‘attempted murder’ of everything by 100+ planes attacking IRI.

IF this deal goes through and observed, it would likely be a very isolated one and hanging by the thread, likely a lipstick on the pig sort of thing.
 

Generally speaking nobody should believe anything anyway until someone from Hezb warring side makes comment on it, anything coming out from the West or even the Leb. politicians at the point is just plain buffoonery. 

[mahmood8726]

 

https://t.me/warfareanalysis/107702

 

The only explanation for Israel seeking a diplomatic solution with Hezbollah is that they have suffered great unannounced losses. 

 

The evidence lies in the fact that Ben Gvir and Smotrich did not oppose or threaten to leave Netanyahu’s coalition government. This means that Netanyahu has briefed them on the exact losses on the Lebanese front.

 

Despite Hezbollah’s loss of its top political and military leadership, its operations have demonstrated that it remains unaffected, as if none of its leaders were harmed.

 

This resilience is natural for popular resistance movements. All of Hamas political bureau leaders were assassinated by Israel, yet Hamas not only endured but emerged stronger.

 

The reason is that popular resistance movements are not like states that collapse with the collapse of their leadership. 

 

A popular resistance loses ONLY when it stops resisting, while a conventional army loses if it fails to completely and definitively eliminate a resistance movement.

 

The European apartheid regime in South Africa, which was also backed by the U.S. and Europe, collapsed because it became exhausted.

 

And this exhaustion is what will eventually bring down the Zionist occupation.

 

As long as there is Palestinian resistance, the inevitable result is exhaustion.

 

And as long as there is an occupation, there will always be Palestinian resistance.

 

و إِنّ غَداً لنَاظِرِهِ قَرِيبُ

 

[V]

[Diaz]

I’m happy and said tbh, I’m happy there will be a ceasefire and inshallah it happened but what will happen to our brothers and sister in Gaza? I’m still not sure but whatever reason hezbollah agreed on the ceasefire, they did it because they did a studies before accepting it, I’m sure hamas support this decision as well. But for now let’s see what will happened. 

[Haji 2003]

Settler opinion

 

[Diaz]

They accepted the ceasefire. Israhell will stop attacking at 10am on Wednesday morning. My family in Lebanon evacuated and they do not know where to go. 

[Guest111]

Has Hizbullah commented on where Gaza fits in this ceasefire? Because Nasrallah did say in his last speech "جبهة لبنان لن تتوقف قبل وقف العدوان على غزة"

 

Are they not honouring his final wishes?

[Guest Abdallah]

8 minutes ago, Guest111 said:

Has Hizbullah commented on where Gaza fits in this ceasefire? Because Nasrallah did say in his last speech "جبهة لبنان لن تتوقف قبل وقف العدوان على غزة"

 

Are they not honouring his final wishes?

I guess they will clarify why they did this. Obviously a circumstance so big, made them change their descision. They might have calculated that whatever they will do, will change anything in Gaza. 

[علوي]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2VexxQrdkA

 

[realizm]

18 minutes ago, Guest111 said:

Has Hizbullah commented on where Gaza fits in this ceasefire? Because Nasrallah did say in his last speech "جبهة لبنان لن تتوقف قبل وقف العدوان على غزة"

 

Are they not honouring his final wishes?

It is not just just Hezbollah and Israel negotiating here. It's the US, Iran, Lebanese sects, KSA... 

When you are fighting and left alone on the battlefield, and your fellow citizens die and your country collapses and someone comes and offers a deal, especially when it does not look like you plead for it, there are choices you need to make. Always was like that, and always will. Otherwise wars would be endless.

I feel a bitter taste because of what could have been achieved if the initial plan had developped and if the hacks of Hezbollah had not happened.

We lost many civilians and heroes.

 

[علوي]

 

The Resistance has won. The enemy has not achieved a single military objective over the course of an entire year.

Quote

The Israeli Channel 13 conducted a poll which showed that 61% of the Zionists believe that ‘Israel’ did not win the war.

 

Edited November 26, 2024 by علوي

[علوي]

On another note, Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan stated two days ago:

Quote

"Any announcement of a ceasefire in Lebanon is welcomed, as Hezbollah has stood by our people and made great sacrifices," Hamdan stated, emphasizing that the resistance in Lebanon deserves support despite attempts by some to incite division and sectarian strife.

"We, in the Axis of Resistance, trust one another and coordinate on every detail," he concluded. 

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/hezbollah-stands-with-palestine--ceasefire-in-lebanon-welcom

[Andaros]

https://mediaview.aljazeera.com/video/9rS6g3m3Rd

[علوي]

"Israel" enraged following announcement of ceasefire deal

Key points:

Quote

Reports of progress toward a cease-fire with Hezbollah have sparked significant frustration among residents of northern Israel…

...

Kiryat Shmona Mayor Avihay Stern expressed strong opposition to the reported deal, urging Israel's leaders to reconsider. "Before signing what feels like a surrender agreement, I call on our leaders to look into the eyes of Kiryat Shmona’s children and think of their future," Stern said.

...

Residents across the region are demanding that Israel "end the story" and eliminate Hezbollah’s capabilities, ensuring long-term security before returning to their homes.

...

Moshe Davidovich, head of the Mateh Asher Regional Council in the Western Galilee, harshly criticized the emerging cease-fire agreement.

...

I’m not the one under delusion, because to present this charade—after people have spent more than a year confined to bomb shelters, after children have wet their beds for over a year, after mental health here has been stretched to the absolute limit—is simply insulting,” he added.

...

And anyone who believes they can just flip a switch, say ‘that’s it, time’s up,’ and that life will return to normal with peace and harmony restored along the confrontation line is living in a fantasy. These are people sitting comfortably in central Israel, in ivory towers, steering us toward disaster.

...

…To force them to return home without proper protection is unconscionable.

...

The head of the Mateh Asher Regional Council cautioned that residents would not feel secure under the proposed agreement, leading to an increasing number of families leaving the region.

...

While residents long for peace, Shmuel voiced his opposition to the proposed agreement. “I don’t think now is the time,” he said. “I think until Lebanon is cleared of threats, the fire must not stop because it will return. Maybe in a year, two, or three—it will come back.

...

Criticism of the proposed agreement has come from politicians across Israel's political spectrum, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

...

[Likud MP Amit Halevi:] “Any agreement that does not include Hezbollah's removal from Lebanon fails to meet Israel's security needs and contradicts the Cabinet’s decision to ensure residents can return home safely.

...

Opposition leaders have also voiced strong objections to the emerging agreement, emphasizing the need for Israeli military autonomy in protecting the country’s northern residents and rejecting reliance on international forces.

...

Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman was more direct, labeling the deal "unreasonable" for not requiring the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. "Israel's leadership remains trapped in the same flawed mindset, still living as if it’s October 6, and nothing has changed," Liberman said during a faction meeting.

"This agreement is disastrous for Israel," he added. "The Iranians have already begun rebuilding Hezbollah, smuggling weapons again. Without mechanisms to create distance and ensure a security buffer, I tell the residents of the north: there’s no reason to return home. We cannot accept a deal that absolves the Lebanese government while allowing Hezbollah to operate freely and prepare for the next war."

[Emphasis added]

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skrliwz7ye#autoplay

[mahmood8726]

This is a must read.

https://t.me/SNNenglish/46095

 

Middle East Observer on X comments on the ceasefire and the ''separation of the fronts'' :

 

Do not forget what was the initial goal set by Hezbollah in opening the support front : 

 

Making sure Hamas emerges victorious from the Gaza war .

 

So the real assessment of the war as a whole can be done only after the war ends. We cannot be hasty and already end the war as we imagine it in advance, before it actually ends. So we cannot comment on the ''separation of the fronts'' before we see what happens in Gaza. 

 

Many voices in Israel and USA are already saying that it's time to make a deal in Gaza and end the war there, so we have to wait and see what happens. 

 

Each side will market the deal as a victory, but what actually happens on the ground is almost always different than what we see in the media. In 2006 many people thought that 1701 will end Hezbollah. Currently the ceasefire is based exactly on the implementation of 1701 , the same ending as 2006 war, but with emphasis on ''making sure it is implemented this time''. That's what we will watch out for, if Israel doesn't respect it then expect the same thing as 2006 with Hezbollah not withdrawing. Why did Israel ask for 1701 instead of itself removing Hezbollah from the south of the Litani if it was ''streamrolling the south and dismantling HEzbollah'' ? If they were doing that, why didnt they continue for another month and clear all the south ? If they stopped because they are exhausted militarily, economically, and socially, then we can expect the negotiation process to start in Gaza because they are still taking losses there every day and are exhausted.

 

In short : Do not let your emotions make the assessments and do not rush things. Wait a few weeks and months for things to materialize and the political repercussions to appear, and then you can make a clearer assessment

@SNNenglish

 

 

 

Essentially UN res 1701, states that Israel must give back sheba farms to Lebanon and can't spy on Lebanon via drones. Unless this has been changed in this new ceasefire, expect Israel to violate it and hezb to violate it.

[Irfani313]

Just read the terms of the ceasefire, here’s what’s happening. 

All things frozen under 1701, because Hezb didn’t permit the negotiators to write a new one:

1. Civilian men, women, grandparents, babies, livestock, cats, dogs, donkeys,  and jins, meaning Hizb are returning to their villages in south, rebuilding their homes and fortifications, replenishing their stock, and waving their yellow flags at the fence - again- to spite the sensitive enemy.

2. All the while the squatters in northern occupied territories aren’t “allowed” to return because it’s too unsafe to be there aka by the power of long stick of Hezb.

Everything else you may read or hear is a noise coming out from the western, eastern, and misc. media, that you may choose to ignore. 

In sixty days, watch squatters themselves calling this ceasefire agreement the ‘doc. of defeat’. 

As far as occupation replenishing armor, reconfiguring their tanks, prototyping their short distance laser energy weapons for drone hunting, resupply bunker busters etc., this was happening anyway and won’t stop till the whole project gets dismantled. 
 

For now the result is out, Hezb won, squatters lost. 

[mahmood8726]

They failed more miserably than in 2006, I know many villages including mine which they easily rolled through in 2006, but struggled now. Israel was even scared of bombing the airport and they did not bomb and kill a lot of civilians 5 minutes before the ceasefire like they did before.

 

The only places they had ease in, was in christian villages without hezb being there, because hezb decided after 2006 to not be in christian villages.

Edited November 27, 2024 by mahmood8726

[mahmood8726]

Israel has already breached the ceasefire 4 times now.

 

https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/131367

 A breach of the ceasefire in Khiam. A shell was fired and machine gun combing was carried out on the town. 

 

Zionists just need to feel they’re above the law and get out all their anger for failing to capture the town. 

 

The breach has been reported to UNIFIL, but it is very unlikely that anything will come of it. 

 

@DDGeopolitics

https://t.me/warfareanalysis/108021

 

4 instances of artillery shelling by Israel into Lebanon in the last hour reported by TV journalists in south lebanon 

 

[GG]

 

The khiam breach is one of them. All of them have been reported to UNFIL.

[Abu Nur]

I doubt this ceasefire, they are just buying time for Trump while rearming.

[Abu Nur]

1 hour ago, Irfani313 said:

1. Civilian men, women, grandparents, babies, livestock, cats, dogs, donkeys,  and jins, meaning Hizb are returning to their villages in south, rebuilding their homes and fortifications, replenishing their stock, and waving their yellow flags at the fence - again- to spite the sensitive enemy.

2. All the while the squatters in northern occupied territories aren’t “allowed” to return because it’s too unsafe to be there aka 

This sounds more like a trap.

[Meedy]

Israel won't keep it words. It'll have its troops there. Even if withdraw  It's likely to send back once resistance fight move away from the border. It'll continue its bombing

UN/Lebanese army if they are going to patrolling the borded. Israel will exploit them easily.

[mahmood8726]

33 minutes ago, Meedy said:

Israel won't keep it words. It'll have its troops there. Even if withdraw  It's likely to send back once resistance fight move away from the border. It'll continue its bombing

UN/Lebanese army if they are going to patrolling the borded. Israel will exploit them easily.

Resistance won't move away from border because israel will not withdraw from shebaa farms and give them back to lebanon, Israel will not stop violating the ceasefire with surveillance drones.

[Diaz]

I’m so happy we won this war. This is a lesson for anti resistance, they will never achieve their goals. 
 

alhamdulillah my family are returning to their town soon, I hope their house is not destroyed. 

[Meedy]

The problem is now, people claiming that Hezballah has abandoned palestinan so this could be become another tactic to cause division.. what does everyone think? 

Has Hezballah put a official statement yet?

 

[Diaz]

31 minutes ago, Meedy said:

The problem is now, people claiming that Hezballah has abandoned palestinan so this could be become another tactic to cause division.. what does everyone think? 

Has Hezballah put a official statement yet?

 

But why these people are waiting for Hezbollah to liberate Gaza? Did these people do something to Gaza? 
 

Hezbollah sacrificed their own people and their towns for Gaza, we have more than 4k martyrs. No one has the right to criticize us, even the Palestinians in Gaza are happy for us. 
 

Israeli wanted to disarm us and steal more lands but they couldn’t do anything, they are the biggest losers.

 

The only thing I pray for now is ceasefire in Gaza too, Palestinians have the right to live peacefully.

[Haji 2003]

 

[mahmood8726]

 

Israel violating it again.

First link is a video

https://t.me/warfareanalysis/108066

Al-Manar correspondent: The occupation forces fired machine guns at the residents of Khiyam city while they were trying to check their homes in the northeastern neighborhood.

[G&T]

 

 

https://t.me/warfareanalysis/108070

Hostile Israeli drones fly over Marjeyoun and Khardali in violation of ceasefire

 

[G&T]

[Diaz]

10 minutes ago, mahmood8726 said:

 

Israel violating it again.

First link is a video

https://t.me/warfareanalysis/108066

Al-Manar correspondent: The occupation forces fired machine guns at the residents of Khiyam city while they were trying to check their homes in the northeastern neighborhood.

[G&T]

 

 

https://t.me/warfareanalysis/108070

Hostile Israeli drones fly over Marjeyoun and Khardali in violation of ceasefire

 

[G&T]

These terrorists need to be whipped out. They are just like muawiya (la)

[Meedy]

Israel will not stop its violation. Regardless of whether Hezbollah adhere to the ceasefire or not.

So will Israel be held accountable for breaching and violating the ceasefire ? No 

So what will Hezbollah do? Abide and adhere to the ceasefire conditions? or will it respond back? for long it will allow israel to continue its violation? that's another question

If it does respond back, the world (mainstream media and western gov) will claim it was Hezbollah who breached the ceasefire and turning blind eye to the truth as always ignoring the fact, it was ishrael fault.

 

30 minutes ago, Diaz said:

But why these people are waiting for Hezbollah to liberate Gaza? Did these people do something to Gaza? 
 

Hezbollah sacrificed their own people and their towns for Gaza, we have more than 4k martyrs. No one has the right to criticize us, even the Palestinians in Gaza are happy for us. 

I completely agree with you...

Unfortunately, these cowards will use whatever mean, method, whatever lies, whatever possible to achieve their objectives e.g.

The extremists /fake Muslims could start claim that Shia abandoned people of Palestine', or Hezbollah got tired.... etc.... so you may end up seeing some videos or discussions like these come up.. you will have all different types of critics out there.

Inshallah The ceasefire will last forever and peace return soon to both Palestine and Lebanon 

[Haji 2003]

Hamas Statement

We commend the central role played by the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon in supporting Gaza and the Palestinian resistance, showing significant sacrifices made by Hezbollah and its leadership, particularly by martyr Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. Israel’s acceptance of the agreement with Lebanon, without meeting their conditions it had set, marks an important step in breaking Netanyahu's illusions of reshaping West-Asia through force and his misguided belief in defeating or disarming resistance forces. This agreement would not have been possible without the steadfastness of the resistance and the support of the people behind it. They expressed confidence that the Resistance Nexus will continue to back their people and support their struggle by all available means.

https://x.com/AryJeay/status/1861722839348326837

 

[Diaz]

 Statement by Yemen's Ansarallah on Hezbollah's victory in Lebanon:

 

'We salute the great resilience of Hezbollah and the dear Lebanese people in confronting the brutal Israeli aggression. Through this steadfastness and the unity of the people, army, and resistance, Lebanon has achieved another victory by repelling this aggression and thwarting its malicious goals.

 

The Islamic Resistance in Lebanon, with its immense sacrifices, has only grown deeper in its roots, stronger, and more steadfast. It has excelled in its escalating operations, both in quantity and quality, forcing the Zionist enemy and its American sponsor to agree to a ceasefire that preserves Lebanon’s security, sovereignty, and independence.

 

We have full confidence in the choices of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon. We believe its wise leadership has managed to regain the initiative in a short time despite the significant wounds inflicted upon the resistance, especially after the assassination of the esteemed Secretary-General, the martyr of Islam and Muslims, His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah — may Allah's blessings be upon him. The Israeli enemy would not have relented and accepted a ceasefire were it not for its confrontation with a resilient resistance that stood firm against treacherous assassination crimes. This resistance rose with even greater ferocity, proving its ability to engage in a prolonged war of attrition — something a fragile and weak entity like the Zionist regime cannot endure. As described by the martyred leader His Eminence Sayyed Nasrallah, this entity is more fragile than a spider’s web.

 

The martyrs of Hezbollah are martyrs on the path to Al-Quds. Hezbollah has performed admirably on this challenging path, continuing its support for Gaza and Palestine despite the shameful and disgraceful Arab and Islamic betrayal, with rare exceptions.

 

The struggle against the Zionist enemy is inevitable, and the wars with it are rounds in a conflict that will inevitably end with its demise, God willing.'

 

@Middle_East_Spectator

[mahmood8726]

Hezbollah, Mahmoud Qamati:

 

We will not abandon Palestine, which is our main issue and the issue of all Arabs and Muslims, and we are part of this nation, and we will decide later how we will continue the support.

Edited November 27, 2024 by mahmood8726

[Azadeh307]

Has it been verified that the leader of the Israeli airforce was killed in strikes on his home? https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/11/27/738007/Lebanon-Hezbollah-residence-Tomer-Bar-attack-drones

[Diaz]

2 hours ago, Azadeh307 said:

Has it been verified that the leader of the Israeli airforce was killed in strikes on his home? https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/11/27/738007/Lebanon-Hezbollah-residence-Tomer-Bar-attack-drones

[Muhammed Ali]

16 hours ago, Abu Nur said:

I doubt this ceasefire, they are just buying time for Trump while rearming.

I think that is what Netanyahu may have been indicating in his speech. They also want to take parts of Gaza first.

Quote

Why should we have a ceasefire now? For three main reasons:

The first reason is to focus on the Iranian threat, and I will not expand on that.

The second reason is to give our forces a breather and replenish stocks. And I say it openly, it is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries. These delays will be resolved soon. We will receive supplies of advanced weaponry that will keep our soldiers safe and give us more strike force to complete our mission.

And the third reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas. From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages.

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/prime-minister-netanyahu-s-speech-on-ceasefire-outline-with-hezbollah

The Israelis see the next four years as their opportunity to fulfill many of their aims.