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In the Name of God بسم الله

Palestine - Post Conflict Scenarios

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Seems like business as usual for some people

This is what got us into this mess in the first place (my bold).

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In recent weeks, McGurk has been pitching national security officials on a plan suggesting an approximately 90-day timeline for what should happen once active fighting in Gaza ends, three U.S. officials said. It argues that stability can be achieved in the devastated Palestinian region if American, Israeli, Palestinian and Saudi officials launch an urgent diplomatic effort that prioritizes the establishment of Israel-Saudi ties, the officials continued. Such a development is widely referred to as “normalization,” given Saudi Arabia’s refusal to recognize Israel since its founding in 1948.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/biden-saudi-israel-gaza-brett-mcgurk_n_65a19ee2e4b07bd6950cd152

 

The following is entirely right in my opinion:

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There is a widespread belief that similar U.S.-led deals that involved Israel and other regional Arab governments — and that downplayed Palestinian concerns — have fueled anger and violence, including the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas and other Palestinian militants inside Israel.

 

This is absolutely key to understanding a lot of things:

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McGurk has long focused on relations with Saudi Arabia, arguing for Biden to treat a Saudi-Israel agreement as a major international success that could be useful for his reelection bid.

He was instrumental in organizing Biden’s controversial 2022 trip to Saudi Arabia, and his policy shift away from his campaign trail pledge to treat the kingdom as a “pariah.” McGurk previously worked on Middle East issues under Trump, who promoted his set of agreements between Arab states and Israel — the so-called Abraham Accords — as one of his biggest triumphs.

 

 

  1. It's all about Biden's re-election prospects and nothing about long term peace and stability.
  2. It seems as if this policy has momentum regardless of who is in power - so much for democracy.

 

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Ami Ayalon's view

ex-head of Shin Bet - but he admits it is an unpopular view

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A former leader of the Shin Bet domestic security force has said Israel will not have security until Palestinians have their own state, and Israeli authorities should release Marwan Barghouti, jailed leader of the second intifada, to direct negotiations to create one.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/14/shin-bet-ami-ayalon-calls-on-israel-release-intifada-leader-marwan-barghouti

 

He also says:

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“We Israelis will have security only when they, Palestinians, will have hope. This is the equation,” he said in an interview at his home. “To say the same in military language: you cannot deter anyone, a person or a group, if he believes he has nothing to lose.”

 

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Let me tell you what will happen

  1. The weak Arab states will offer the max that they can - full normalisation
    1. This means that Israelis will be able to buy land and businesses in Arab countries
  2. As on previous occasions the Palestinians won't get the cake that they are after they'll get:
    1. some of the ingredients.
    2. they'll be told they'll get the rest, 'if they behave themselves'
    3. they'll still not get the control over their land that you would expect for a state
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When Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan was asked on Tuesday if Riyadh would recognise Israel as part of a wider political agreement, he said “certainly”. “We agree that regional peace includes peace for Israel, but that could only happen through peace for the Palestinians through a Palestinian state,” he told a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

https://www.ft.com/content/11890426-0250-4a3c-ba48-d8523924eb9c

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1 hour ago, Haji 2003 said:

Let me tell you what will happen

  1. The weak Arab states will offer the max that they can - full normalisation
    1. This means that Israelis will be able to buy land and businesses in Arab countries
  2. As on previous occasions the Palestinians won't get the cake that they are after they'll get:
    1. some of the ingredients.
    2. they'll be told they'll get the rest, 'if they behave themselves'
    3. they'll still not get the control over their land that you would expect for a state

https://www.ft.com/content/11890426-0250-4a3c-ba48-d8523924eb9c

OR I have a feeling that the Likud hardliners could outmanoeuvre Netanyahu and it could end up as a 67 War repeat- them keeping all their military gains with permanent IOF presence on the Gaza Strip, more military bases, and tighter control over the Red Sea route (with Egyptian cooperation, of course) on the pretext of neutralizing Hamas, and the normalizers agreeing to all of this merely in exchange of a ceasefire. 

It's the pendulum swinging to the other extreme, but I think it is a possibility. 

Edited by AbdusSibtayn
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Since today's extremist rhetoric becomes tomorrow's reality ...

Obviously it's not just rhetoric, when you destroy all the infrastructure you create a new reality.

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Far-right Israeli ministers and ministers belonging to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party have attended a conference on the resettlement of Gaza, at which the national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir said Israelis needed “to find a legal way to voluntarily emigrate [Palestinians],” Haaretz newspaper has reported.

The conference held in Jerusalem on Sunday was attended by thousands of people including finance minister Bezalel Smotrich as well as other members of the Knesset and coalition government, rabbis, settlement activists and families of soldiers fighting in Gaza.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jan/28/middle-east-crisis-live-israel-gaza-hamas-us-negotiations-hostages-fighting

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Given a toss-up between the settler vision of the future and a Western one - I think the former will win out

otherwise westerners will fear being labelled anti-semitic. Also the Israeli strategy of levelling Gaza makes more sense if their objective all along was not necessarily to eliminate Hamas but to expel Palestinians.

To capture a place you don't need to do so physically, you simply make it uninhabitable for the current population.

After all if the Palestinians leave Gaza, what's the point of Hamas defending the place, no matter how good the tunnels are and their defence strategy?

 

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This would be a disaster

It's been the same stupid formula since 1948. The following sounds nice if you read it quickly. But of you pay attention you'll see that the Israelis get normalisation now. The Palestinians only get a "time-bound path" and you can be guaranteed that some excuse or other will be used to slow down / stop travel down that path.

 

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“There’s a very powerful path that we can see before us to actually get to lasting peace and security and its coming ever more sharply into focus,” Blinken said. “An Israel that is integrated into the region with security guarantees from its neighbours and partners alongside a practical time-bound irreversible path to a Palestinian state.”

https://www.ft.com/content/9cc5f04e-8593-44b7-8415-f866c541cab7

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Interesting piece in the FT - covering issues I've not seen elsewhere in MSM

in summary, various private Emiratis are unhappy about doing business with Israelis, but the government is still keen, and various projects are continuing as before with the UAE government wanting to develop the relationship regardless of whatever happens in Gaza.

This is not an equilibrium in my opinion.

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The Israel-Hamas war has now chilled nascent prospects of Emirati private businesses doing deals with Israeli companies because of the simmering fury among merchant families — many of whom were already wary of dealing with Israelis — over the destruction in Gaza.

https://www.ft.com/content/94143567-2815-48ce-9ada-ed40f969e705

 

On the other hand:

 

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Arik Shtilman, chief executive officer of the Israeli-founded financial technology company Rapyd, which has about 100 employees in the UAE, said the war’s impact on his business was “literally nonexistent”.

 

Screenshot 2024-02-08 at 09.50.07.png

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Israel co-opting other Arab states to 'deradicalise' Palestinians

One-page document released by Netanyahu.

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The document said Israel intends to choose who is allowed to lead Gaza’s reconstruction, and will embark on a “comprehensive deradicalisation programme in all religious education and social institutions in the Gaza Strip, done with involvement and assistance of Arab states”.

https://www.ft.com/content/063495e8-645c-4cec-8b8e-290fdc32044f

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What I don't understand is that why is the Land of Israel referred to as the name after their sworn enemy The Philistines.

https://www.thejewishstar.com/stories/heres-how-the-palestinians-got-their-name,22410

Historically speaking, the land Palestine or Falastin in Arabic is used when the Romans conquered Israel during 2nd century CE and to rub salt on the wounds of the Jewish people and Israelites as a whole they named the land Israel after their sworn enemy The Philistines. Goliath aka Jalut in Arabic is from Philistine. You know the whole David (عليه السلام) vs Goliath. The Quran mentions the land of Israel several times and is acknowledged as the land of the Israelites. Originally the land was known as Canaan long before both Israel and Palestine.

Wouldn't this be equivalent to naming Al-Hejaz of Arabia after the sworn tribal enemy of Muhammad (صلى الله عليه وآله وسلم) Al-Ummayah?

Didn't Jews also bought the land in Palestine around the 1880s before the British Mandate from 1920 - 1948?

Apparently I've heard some pretty bold claims from those who support Zionism saying that DNA testing is illegal in Israel due to the Jews surviving a genocide by the Nazis who used genetic tests to identify them for extermination and this somehow is perfectly sensible. You can already tell how beyond flawed this claim is, but for the sake of argument people at this day and age wouldn't be Nazis to simply identify through DNA tests whether those Zionist Jews who migrated from Europe to Palestine really are Jews by blood as in they are from the Tribe of Judah.

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US port to be used in depopulation of Gaza? "The floating port off the shores of Gaza is a humanitarian facade hiding voluntary migration to Europe." — Hisham Khreisat The U.S. asserts that the port's purpose is to support humanitarian aid efforts. However, leaked Israeli plans suggest it could also serve as a tool for ethnic cleansing in Gaza. According to Hisham Khreisat, a Jordanian expert in military and strategic affairs, the true intention behind the port's construction is to facilitate the deportation of Gaza's population by sea.

https://twitter.com/MintPressNews/status/1767264414275715144

 

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