Saudi announcement on Iran ties - brokered by China

[Haji 2003]

Google translate version of Saudi announcement

Original is here:

https://www.spa.gov.sa/viewstory.php?lang=ar&newsid=2433228

Riyadh, Shaaban 18, 1444 AH, corresponding to March 10, 2023 AD, SPA

Today, a joint tripartite statement was issued by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the People's Republic of China, which reads as follows:

In response to the generous initiative of His Excellency President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China to support China to develop good neighborly relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and based on the agreement between His Excellency President Xi Jinping and both the leaderships of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, that the Republic of China The People’s Council hosted and sponsored the talks between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, desiring to resolve the differences between them through dialogue and diplomacy within the framework of the fraternal ties that bring them together, and their commitment to the principles and purposes of the Charters of the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and international conventions and norms, which took place in the period From 6-10 March 2023 AD in Beijing, discussions between the delegations of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, headed by His Excellency Dr. Musaed bin Muhammad Al-Aiban, Minister of State, Member of the Council of Ministers, National Security Adviser in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and His Excellency Admiral Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security in the Islamic Republic Iranian.

The Saudi and Iranian sides expressed their appreciation and thanks to the Republic of Iraq and the Sultanate of Oman for hosting the rounds of dialogue that took place between the two sides during the years 2021-2022. The two sides also expressed their appreciation and thanks to the leadership and government of the People's Republic of China for hosting and sponsoring the talks and their efforts to make them a success.

And the three countries announce that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran have reached an agreement that includes agreeing to resume diplomatic relations between them and reopen their embassies and representations within a maximum period of two months, and includes their affirmation of respect for the sovereignty of countries and non-interference in their internal affairs, and they agreed that the foreign ministers of the two countries hold a meeting To activate this, arrange the exchange of ambassadors and discuss ways to strengthen relations between them. They also agreed to activate the security cooperation agreement between them, signed on 1/22/1422 AH, corresponding to 4/17/2001 AD, and the general agreement for cooperation in the field of economy, trade, investment, technology, science, culture, sports and youth, signed on 2/2/1419 AH corresponding to 5/27/1998 AD.

Each of the three countries expressed their keenness to make every effort to enhance regional and international peace and security.
It was issued in Beijing on March 10, 2023 AD.
For the Islamic Republic of Iran
Ali Shamkhani
Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security
About the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban
Minister of State, Member of the Council of Ministers, National Security Adviser
For the People's Republic of China
Wang Yi
Member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and Director of the Bureau of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the CPC Central Committee.

[Abu Hadi]

So I expected this, and here's why. 

I don't think Saudi has any intention of having good relations with Iran. This is only a way for Ibn Saud to put pressure on the US. As I said in previous posts, the only reason the US is supporting Ibn Saud at this point is because of the petro dollar scheme which is about to collapse (in 5 to 10 years) due to the adoption of electric vehicles and alternative power generation, making oil as a commodity obsolete. I'm sure there are many discussions going on in D.C. about ditching Ibn Saud as an ally, as their behaviours are 'problematic' (murdering people in foreign embassies, bulldozing Shia villages, bombing schools and hospitals in Yemen, etc, etc, etc, ). 

What Ibn Saud is telling the US by this message is that 'If you don't keep giving us billions to maintain our 'lifestyle'' in other words their blank check from the US, we will 'snuggle up' to Iran, which is the last thing you want, i.e. the last thing Israel wants. Saudi and Iran having good relations would not damage the US, it would however put Israel in a position where they would need to consider their aggressive actions toward Palestine and other countries in the area. So this is what this is all about, FYI. It has very little to do with the US, in general, Saudi or Iran or even China. It's all about Israel. 

Edited March 10 by Abu Hadi

[Haji 2003]

 

[Haji 2003]

 

[Eddie Mecca]

Iran and Saudi Arabia Agree To Restore Ties / Mohammad Marandi (6 min)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyJwTgZ-_Ig

[Eddie Mecca]

Iran and Saudi Arabia Resume Ties / Richard Medhurst (2 hours 23 minutes)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joNsEB-4ShY

[Sirius_Bright]

Temporary ties. The differences between them are too huge for any meaningful relations. 

[Abu Nur]

I read that next China is to trying make ties between Iran and UAE this year.

Edited March 14 by Abu Nur

[Haji 2003]

 

 

[Abu Nur]

25 minutes ago, Haji 2003 said:

 

 

It is good demand for the stability of Middle East peace, not the other around.

Edited March 14 by Abu Nur

[Abu Nur]

On 3/10/2023 at 4:07 PM, Abu Hadi said:

So I expected this, and here's why. 

I don't think Saudi has any intention of having good relations with Iran. This is only a way for Ibn Saud to put pressure on the US. As I said in previous posts, the only reason the US is supporting Ibn Saud at this point is because of the petro dollar scheme which is about to collapse (in 5 to 10 years) due to the adoption of electric vehicles and alternative power generation, making oil as a commodity obsolete. I'm sure there are many discussions going on in D.C. about ditching Ibn Saud as an ally, as their behaviours are 'problematic' (murdering people in foreign embassies, bulldozing Shia villages, bombing schools and hospitals in Yemen, etc, etc, etc, ). 

What Ibn Saud is telling the US by this message is that 'If you don't keep giving us billions to maintain our 'lifestyle'' in other words their blank check from the US, we will 'snuggle up' to Iran, which is the last thing you want, i.e. the last thing Israel wants. Saudi and Iran having good relations would not damage the US, it would however put Israel in a position where they would need to consider their aggressive actions toward Palestine and other countries in the area. So this is what this is all about, FYI. It has very little to do with the US, in general, Saudi or Iran or even China. It's all about Israel. 

It is possible that in these two months US is going to offer them something that they could not deny. If they accept it then they will lose both China and Iran trust and they could face negative consequence from the East. It is very hard to tell because Saudis are seeing economical potentiality from East that could replace the dependency from US. And they also know very well that they can not anymore trust US.

[Eddie Mecca]

Condensed version...'China Proves Diplomacy Can Win: Saudi Arabia & Iran Resume Ties' (25 min.) Richard Medhurst

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn-sW9fwOCc

[Haji 2003]

Thoughtful reader comment in UK's Guardian newspaper

I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but it has some useful angles.

[Haji 2003]

Another benefit worth noting

 

[Abu Hadi]

12 hours ago, Abu Nur said:

It is possible that in these two months US is going to offer them something that they could not deny. If they accept it then they will lose both China and Iran trust and they could face negative consequence from the East. It is very hard to tell because Saudis are seeing economical potentiality from East that could replace the dependency from US. And they also know very well that they can not anymore trust US.

The US could dump Ibn Saud as an ally and instead support the Takfiri groups from behind the scenes, like they have been doing, to put pressure on the govt when they need to. The Takfiris are the perfect ally for the US because they are disposable. They are also very ignorant, in general and are reactionary (overly emotional). So they can be easily manipulated. Also, they are relatively inexpensive, in terms of the payouts, vs. the Ibn Saud clan. 

The Ibn Saud clan were expensive, but also they were generating revenue for the US via the petro dollar scheme. Now that the revenue stream from the oil will be eliminated or reduced due to shifting politics and technologies, Ibn Saud are now too expensive and US will look for a cheaper alternative, i.e. the Takfiri groups. I also don't think Iran or China will pay out the huge amounts so Ibn Saud can maintain their gold plated 747s. The days of the monarchy of Ibn Saud are numbered and coming to an end, no matter which direction they turn to, West or East. IMHO. 

The Hijaz will go back to the way it was before the discovery of oil. Mecca and Medina, and a few small cities. The rest will be barren desert. 

Edited March 15 by Abu Hadi

[Diaz]

What will happen if Saudi Arabia broke their ties with Iran after few months? 

[Abu Hadi]

6 hours ago, Diaz said:

What will happen if Saudi Arabia broke their ties with Iran after few months? 

I don't think they will outright break the ties. I just think the relationship will stay in an ambiguous state for a while. Different interest groups within the monarchy will speak up from time to time, with different statements. Ultimately, I think the inevitable infighting between the factions of Ibn Saud will start, each attacking the other fighting over their share of the dwindling money supply. That will be the final chapter, and then we can close the book. 

Many people don't know this but Ibn Saud is not one group. It is many different groups each tracing their lineage to Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud. Up until recently, all the kings were the sons of Abdul Aziz. With the switch to bin Salman, this changed and it went to the grandchildren. There are hundreds of grandchildren from different fathers, each believing that they are the ones entitled to the Kingdom. They are waiting on the sidelines, for now. The time will come when the power of bin Salman will fade away. He is only in power now because he controls the ARAMCO revenue stream and uses his, as well as threats to keep the others in line. Once the revenue stream drys up, as it is starting to now, he will no longer be able to maintain this control. That is when the various factions that are waiting on the sidelines will start fighting. This is inevitable, given the conditions. We just don't know exactly when it will happen. Maybe this year, maybe next, maybe 5 to 10 years down the road, but it will happen. 

Most analysts who study this subject say 5 to 10 years. A lot of people miss this because ARAMCO is still a big and powerful company and there are still millions of barrels of oil per day that the company is selling. This is starting to decline, and the decline is at the very early stage. We will see this decline accelerate in coming years. 

This was discussed in another thread about Saudi 2030 initiative, which is a joke, btw. There is pretty much zero chance of most of these dreams every coming to fruition despite the huge amount of capital being (wasted) on it currently trying to turn Hijaz into a tourist destination. 

Edited March 15 by Abu Hadi

[Haji 2003]

23 hours ago, Diaz said:

What will happen if Saudi Arabia broke their ties with Iran after few months? 

In 1997 I went to Hong Kong for the second time and decided to get a bit adventurous. One of the people I was working with agreed to take me on a shopping trip over the border into Shenzhen, China.

So we spent the afternoon shopping and she taught me an important lesson about negotiating with shopkeepers:

You don't stand and argue, you walk away.

It's important to walk away because it's a strong a signal as you can give to the seller that their price is not attractive and you can buy elsewhere. Standing around and haggling does the opposite (counter-intuitively), you actually signal to the seller that you want to buy from them and as a result they're only likely to give you minor discounts.

Once the seller comes into the street to chase after you and propose a new price, you know it will be a good one.

So one perspective is that the Saudi/US relationship is rock solid, but the Saudis would like a better deal from the Americans and cosying up to China is their version of walking out of the shop. And now they're waiting for better terms from the Americans. Once they get that it'll be business as usual.

Of course this is a game that the Saudis can play repeatedly and they would be mad not to.

But there is a complicating factor and I'll come onto that in the next post.

[Abu Hadi]

On 3/16/2023 at 8:58 AM, Haji 2003 said:

In 1997 I went to Hong Kong for the second time and decided to get a bit adventurous. One of the people I was working with agreed to take me on a shopping trip over the border into Shenzhen, China.

So we spent the afternoon shopping and she taught me an important lesson about negotiating with shopkeepers:

You don't stand and argue, you walk away.

It's important to walk away because it's a strong a signal as you can give to the seller that their price is not attractive and you can buy elsewhere. Standing around and haggling does the opposite (counter-intuitively), you actually signal to the seller that you want to buy from them and as a result they're only likely to give you minor discounts.

Once the seller comes into the street to chase after you and propose a new price, you know it will be a good one.

So one perspective is that the Saudi/US relationship is rock solid, but the Saudis would like a better deal from the Americans and cosying up to China is their version of walking out of the shop. And now they're waiting for better terms from the Americans. Once they get that it'll be business as usual.

Of course this is a game that the Saudis can play repeatedly and they would be mad not to.

But there is a complicating factor and I'll come onto that in the next post.

MashaAllah, this is a good response. The analogy is perfect in this case. They are walking away to show the Americans that they are going somewhere for a better deal.

From what I have seen, the relationship between Saudi and US is good, probably not great. There is definitely a chance that it could fall apart in the short term, a much greater chance it could fall apart in the long term. The main contentious point was discussed earlier, what compensation will the Ibn Saud Monarchy get going forward without the guaranteed revenue from oil sales. This is why they are 'walking away'.  

I don't think they care much about what their relationship is like with Iran. Despite the media hype and propaganda, Iran is a 'known quantity' as far as their foreign policy. Saudi knows they won't try to invade them or fire nuclear missles at them as long the IRI govt is still in place. They may have little skirmishes here and there but they know that their power is not something Iran is after. That is the dilemma of someone in this world who is known for seeking Haqq (Rightousness and Justice) as their primary motivation. If people know this is your motivation, they also know your limits, line you will not cross. 

Edited March 17 by Abu Hadi

[Eddie Mecca]

Posted 2 days ago...MOATS...George Galloway interviews Seyed Mohammad Marandi...(16 min.)...Saudi-Iran Deal...Will Peace Prevail in the Holy Land?...Israel Threatens Lebanon's territorial sovereignty 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fr_4-NrQlZU

[Meedy]

I think US will give Saudi whatever money they want. Otherwise:

- Saudi will become ally with China, Russia and Iran.

- It will stop buying weapons from US and buy from Russia and China instead.

- It may consider stop bombing yemen (though unlikely)

However US may try and turn UAE against the Saudi.  US can easily supply weapons to Takfiri and use them against the Saudi with having turned UAE against them.

[Ashvazdanghe]

22 hours ago, Meedy said:

I think US will give Saudi whatever money they want. Otherwise

Salam this is mostly about political & military protection of US from KSA & it's allies which KSA has been ready to pay any amount of money about it to Trump as milking cow of US which it has been reduced currently due to support of KSA from Trump & other warhawks .

their allegiance will be temporarily just based on fulfilling their interests  which KSA can't release itself from influence of US because it has been founded & supported by Britain & US .

KSA has bought weapons likewise dongfeng missiles from China while it has been buying weapon from US too which current situation it won't stop buying weapon from both of both sides .

I hope so KSA stops bombing Yemen although this deal is not final solution for ending war against Yemen anyway I hope so during time of negotiation it reaches to nearaly stop bombing & giving a time frame to Yemen for recovery before breaking deal.

preserving good ties with KSA for keepping UAE as safe haven for  business activities  is essential for it so it's very far fetch that UAE becomes against KSA or supports any takfiri group in broad daylight anyway it supports Takfiri groups in Yemen in similar fashion that it has supported them before secretly.

[Abu Nur]

On 3/16/2023 at 2:58 PM, Haji 2003 said:

In 1997 I went to Hong Kong for the second time and decided to get a bit adventurous. One of the people I was working with agreed to take me on a shopping trip over the border into Shenzhen, China.

So we spent the afternoon shopping and she taught me an important lesson about negotiating with shopkeepers:

You don't stand and argue, you walk away.

It's important to walk away because it's a strong a signal as you can give to the seller that their price is not attractive and you can buy elsewhere. Standing around and haggling does the opposite (counter-intuitively), you actually signal to the seller that you want to buy from them and as a result they're only likely to give you minor discounts.

Once the seller comes into the street to chase after you and propose a new price, you know it will be a good one.

So one perspective is that the Saudi/US relationship is rock solid, but the Saudis would like a better deal from the Americans and cosying up to China is their version of walking out of the shop. And now they're waiting for better terms from the Americans. Once they get that it'll be business as usual.

Of course this is a game that the Saudis can play repeatedly and they would be mad not to.

But there is a complicating factor and I'll come onto that in the next post.

Interesting. I personally see that Saudis do not want do deal with US anymore and it is possible that Russia and China have offered exist from depending on US. I probably could be very wrong.

[Haji 2003]

On 3/20/2023 at 4:08 PM, Abu Nur said:

Interesting. I personally see that Saudis do not want do deal with US anymore and it is possible that Russia and China have offered exist from depending on US. I probably could be very wrong.

I think the Saudis are too deeply tied into the US to extricate themselves.

But by the same measure China is too large for them to ignore. And it's not just a matter of their trading relationship. China will have influence in many countries that are in the Saudis' backyard.

[Silas]

From what I have heard, China wants to build a pipeline from Saudi Arabia to China through Iran and the central Asian countries. The only way it can do this, is to have stability in the region, and agreements with both nations.

If such a network of pipelines were build, it would greatly strengthen China at the expense of the rest of the world.

Iran is absolutely essential in the new world order: with its vast oil reserves, lithium deposits, educated population, and manufacturing capacity, it can be the dominant player in the region. Goods can be shipped to Europe through Iran from India and southeast Asia once restrictions and sanctions are lifted --this wrecks the Chinese "belt and road initiative"

The US, and other nations, need to normalize relations with Iran. End the silly sanctions and embargoes. Isolating Iran is contrary to US interests, and only placates Israel.

[Eddie Mecca]

'Saudi Deal With Iran Worries Israel' TBS News

https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/middle-east/saudi-deal-iran-worries-israel-shakes-middle-east-598030

 

News of the rapprochement between long-time regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran sent shock waves through the Middle East on Saturday and dealt a symbolic blow to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has made the threat posed by Tehran a public diplomacy priority and personal crusade.

The breakthrough — a culmination of more than a year of negotiations in Baghdad and more recent talks in China — also became ensnared in Israel's internal politics, reflecting the country's divisions at a moment of national turmoil.

The agreement, which gives Iran and Saudi Arabia two months to reopen their respective embassies and re-establish ties after seven years of rupture, more broadly represents one of the most striking shifts in Middle Eastern diplomacy over recent years. In countries like Yemen and Syria, long caught between the Sunni kingdom and the Shiite powerhouse, the announcement stirred cautious optimism.

In Israel, it caused disappointment — along with finger-pointing.

One of Netanyahu's greatest foreign policy triumphs remains Israel's US-brokered normalization deals in 2020 with four Arab states, including Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. They were part of a wider push to isolate and oppose Iran in the region.

He has portrayed himself as the only politician capable of protecting Israel from Tehran's rapidly accelerating nuclear program and regional proxies, like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel and Iran have also waged a regional shadow war that has led to suspected Iranian drone strikes on Israeli-linked ships ferrying goods in the Persian Gulf, among other attacks.

 

A normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, the most powerful and wealthy Arab state, would fulfill Netanyahu's prized goal, reshaping the region and boosting Israel's standing in historic ways. Even as backdoor relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia have grown, the kingdom has said it won't officially recognize Israel before a resolution to the decadeslong Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

 

Since returning to office late last year, Netanyahu and his allies have hinted that a deal with the kingdom could be approaching. In a speech to American Jewish leaders last month, Netanyahu described a peace agreement as "a goal that we are working on in parallel with the goal of stopping Iran."

 

But experts say the Saudi-Iran deal that announced Friday has thrown cold water on those ambitions. Saudi Arabia's decision to engage with its regional rival has left Israel largely alone as it leads the charge for diplomatic isolation of Iran and threats of a unilateral military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. The UAE also resumed formal relations with Iran last year.

"It's a blow to Israel's notion and efforts in recent years to try to form an anti-Iran bloc in the region," said Yoel Guzansky, an expert on the Persian Gulf at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank. "If you see the Middle East as a zero-sum game, which Israel and Iran do, a diplomatic win for Iran is very bad news for Israel."

 

Even Danny Danon, a Netanyahu ally and former Israeli ambassador to the U.N. who recently predicted a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia in 2023, seemed disconcerted.

"This is not supporting our efforts," he said, when asked about whether the rapprochement hurt chances for the kingdom's recognition of Israel.

In Yemen, where the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has played out with the most destructive consequences, both warring parties were guarded, but hopeful.

A Saudi-led military coalition intervened in Yemen's conflict in 2015, months after the Iran-backed Houthi militias seized the capital of Sanaa in 2014, forcing the internationally recognized government into exile in Saudi Arabia.

The Houthi rebels welcomed the agreement as a modest but positive step.

"The region needs the return of normal relations between its countries, through which the Islamic society can regain security lost from foreign interventions," said Houthi spokesman and chief negotiator Mohamed Abdulsalam.

The Saudi-backed Yemeni government expressed some optimism — and caveats.

"The Yemeni government's position depends on actions and practices not words and claims," it said, adding it would proceed cautiously "until observing a true change in (Iranian) behavior."

Analysts did not expect an immediate settlement to the conflict, but said direct talks and better relations could create momentum for a separate agreement that may offer both countries an exit from a disastrous war.

"The ball now is in the court of the Yemeni domestic warring parties to prioritize Yemen's national interest in reaching a peace deal and be inspired by this initial positive step," said Afrah Nasser, a non-resident fellow at the Washington-based Arab Center.

Anna Jacobs, senior Gulf analyst with the International Crisis Group, said she believed the deal was tied to a de-escalation in Yemen.

"It is difficult to imagine a Saudi-Iran agreement to resume diplomatic relations and re-open embassies within a two-month period without some assurances from Iran to more seriously support conflict resolution efforts in Yemen," she said.

War-scarred Syria similarly welcomed the agreement as a move toward easing tensions that have exacerbated the country's conflict. Iran has been a main backer of Syrian President Bashar Assad's government, while Saudi Arabia has supported opposition fighters trying to remove him from power.

The Syrian Foreign Ministry called it an "important step that will lead to strengthening security and stability in the region."

In Israel, bitterly divided and gripped by mass protests over plans by Netanyahu's far-right government to overhaul the judiciary, politicians seized on the rapprochement between the kingdom and Israel's archenemy as an opportunity to criticize Netanyahu, accusing him of focusing on his personal agenda at the expense of Israel's international relations.

Yair Lapid, the former prime minister and head of Israel's opposition, denounced the agreement between Riyadh and Tehran as "a full and dangerous failure of the Israeli government's foreign policy."

"This is what happens when you deal with legal madness all day instead of doing the job with Iran and strengthening relations with the US," he wrote on Twitter. Even Yuli Edelstein from Netanyahu's Likud party blamed Israel's "power struggles and head-butting" for distracting the country from its more pressing threats.

Another opposition lawmaker, Gideon Saar, mocked Netanyahu's goal of formal ties with the kingdom. "Netanyahu promised peace with Saudi Arabia," he wrote on social media. "In the end (Saudi Arabia) did it … with Iran."

Netanyahu, on an official visit to Italy, declined a request for comment and issued no statement on the matter. But quotes to Israeli media by an anonymous senior official in the delegation sought to put blame on the previous government that ruled for a year and a half before Netanyahu returned to office. "It happened because of the impression that Israel and the US were weak," said the senior official, according to the Haaretz daily, which hinted that Netanyahu was the official.

Despite the fallout for Netanyahu's reputation, experts doubted a detente would harm Israel. Saudi Arabia and Iran will remain regional rivals, even if they open embassies in each other's capitals, said Guzansky. And like the UAE, Saudi Arabia could deepen relations with Israel even while maintaining a transactional relationship with Iran.

"The low-key arrangement that the Saudis have with Israel will continue," said Umar Karim, an expert on Saudi politics at the University of Birmingham, noting that the Israeli occupation of the West Bank remained more of a barrier to Saudi recognition than differences over Iran. "The Saudi leadership is engaging in more than one way to secure its national security."

Edited April 18 by Hameedeh
Mods can reduce the size of extremely large fonts.

[Haji 2003]

3 hours ago, Eddie Mecca said:

Saudi Arabia's decision to engage with its regional rival has left Israel largely alone as it leads the charge for diplomatic isolation of Iran and threats of a unilateral military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. The UAE also resumed formal relations with Iran last year.

Also bear in mind that the western media has had a 'taken-for-granted' position that Iran is a malign actor in the Middle East. As evidence, they cite the example of its support for Assad.

It'll be hard for the West to claim that Iran has backed down from supporting Assad when it's the Arab leaders who are welcoming him to their capitals.

[Haji 2003]

Oh puhlease

It's precisely to have advance warning of such news that you have intelligence services.

Quote

A senior US official told me: “We’ll take it. It’s a positive.” He added that if the White House had managed relations better, “the Saudis would have come to us sooner to let us know this was under way, instead of giving us a 24-hour heads up.”

https://www.ft.com/content/d48de469-f930-438a-b1c7-6471dd332aed

 

[Haji 2003]

 

[BlackVeil]

On 3/15/2023 at 10:16 AM, Abu Nur said:

It is very hard to tell because Saudis are seeing economical potentiality from East that could replace the dependency from US. And they also know very well that they can not anymore trust US.

Yes, I think that is the key to this situation. The Saudis want to cut free from the US dollar, and trade their oil in other currencies, because the US dollar is on the out. Also - no trust between the two. The Saudis could not get a single concession from the US/Israel - about Jerusalem, etc. - and the way that they are taken for granted is an affront to their dignity. 

[Haji 2003]

18 minutes ago, BlackVeil said:

The Saudis could not get a single concession from the US/Israel - about Jerusalem, etc. - and the way that they are taken for granted is an affront to their dignity. 

The problem is that the Israelis know from decades of experience that they can hold out for the maximalist position and they will ultimately get it. 

 

Quote

These nations no longer see much value in having the United States as an intermediary as they can fill their own needs through bilateral relations–even with Israel–as the uae did in purchasing the Israeli-Indian co-produced Barak air defence system last year.

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/03/22/jonathan-lord-on-how-america-and-the-middle-east-continue-to-look-past-each-other

 

There does not seem to be much about dignity in the above deal.

 

Quote

Though White House policymakers have sought to tell Middle East partners that the United States is not leaving the region, the partners have already priced in America’s departure and have adjusted their defence policies accordingly.

The first quotation and this one are from a paper written by Jonathan Lord who was previously the Iraq country director in the (US) Office of the Under Secretary of Defence for Policy.

I don't think there'll be departure any time soon. But certainly there'll be an increased role in the region from China and Israel. The only push back against Israel is coming from Iran and hence all the references to containing Iranian influence.

[Eddie Mecca]

'US Hates Peace Breaking Out in the Middle East' Gonzalo Lira (13 min.) Good analysis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uF3XAr5c7mQ&t=107s

 

[Eddie Mecca]

In the Sunni '48 Signs Before Qiyāmah'...48 ahadith are cited...various traditions regarding the End Times are given including this one...no. 8 "A peace agreement between the Muslims and non-Muslims from the yellow race (understood to be the Chinese, Mongols etc.) will take place."...strangely it's the only one (of the forty-eight) not to have a citation after it...would anyone happen to know the reference in Sunni and/or Shi'i books of hadith? 

Edited April 6 by Eddie Mecca

[Abu Nur]

19 hours ago, Eddie Mecca said:

In the Sunni '48 Signs Before Qiyāmah'...48 ahadith are cited...various traditions regarding the End Times are given including this one...no. 8 "A peace agreement between the Muslims and non-Muslims from the yellow race (understood to be the Chinese, Mongols etc.) will take place."...strangely it's the only one (of the forty-eight) not to have a citation after it...would anyone happen to know the reference in Sunni and/or Shi'i books of hadith? 

I have no idea where they get that from, everyone is referring same site that have no source.

[Eddie Mecca]

'China's Saudi-Iran Peace Deal Is A Major Setback To US Empire' (41 min.) / Rania Khalek interviews Professor Mohammad Marandi / BreakThrough News...uploaded 5 hours ago