Russian invasion of Ukraine [Official Thread]

[علوي]

New Head of Special Military Operation

Quote

The head of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, has been appointed to lead Moscow’s joint forces group in Ukraine, the defense ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. The former commander of the military operation, Army General Sergey Surovikin, has been made his deputy.

The need to “raise the operation command level” was linked to an “increased scale of the combat missions,” and the need for closer coordination between various services and branches of the armed forces, the ministry said.
...
Gerasimov is known as one of Russia’s top military commanders and a renowned strategist, who has earned the respect of Kiev’s top commander, Valery Zaluzhny. Back in September, Zaluzhny told Time that he had “learned from Gerasimov.”

“I read everything he ever wrote… He is the smartest of men, and my expectations of him were enormous,” the Ukrainian general admitted at that time.

https://www.rt.com/russia/569712-gerasimov-appoints-ukraine-operation/

[علوي]

Wagner comments on Ukrainian casualties in Soledar

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Ukrainian soldiers surrounded in Soledar have either surrendered or been killed, Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Wednesday. 

“The Ukrainian troops that refused to surrender have been destroyed.”

https://www.rt.com/russia/569721-soledar-wagner-prigozhin-casualties/

[علوي]

'Israel' to officially send air warning systems to Ukraine

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Ukraine's Ambassador to "Israel" announced on Friday that "Tel Aviv" will officially transfer advanced missile and drone alert systems.

"Work on transfer of Israeli technologies related to intelligent missile and drone warning continues. This technology is being officially transferred by the Israeli side. I think we will receive it completely in a little while," said Ambassador Yevgen Korniychuk as quoted by Ukrainian media outlet Ukrinform.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/israel-to-officially-send-air-warning-systems-to-ukraine

I thought Israel was going to stop making public addresses about Ukraine? Obviously al-Shaytan al-Asghar doesn't want to jeopardise its relationship with al-Shaytan al-Akbar 

[علوي]

Russian MoD praises ‘selfless’ Wagner fighters

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Fighters from the private military company Wagner Group have played a major role in liberating the strategic Donbass town of Soledar, the Russian Defense Ministry declared in a Telegram post on Friday.

https://www.rt.com/russia/569846-defense-ministry-wagner-group-soledar/

This comes as a surprise to me. I thought the Russian MoD and the Wagner PMC weren't fond of each other...

[علوي]

When will the Ukraine conflict end?

Like I've been saying, Russia's main goal is to demilitarise the Kiev regime and eradicate the threat it poses to Russia's sovereignty. So, naturally, the end of the conflict will come when this goal is achieved.

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The Ukraine conflict may be concluded either through diplomatic, or military means, but only after Moscow has achieved its goals, Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, said on Friday.

Speaking at a briefing at the UN Security Council, the envoy commented on a possible path for ending the hostilities between the two sides. The opportunity to settle the conflict “will only present itself once Ukraine stops posing a threat to Russia and discriminating against Russian-speaking Ukrainians,” he said.

Nebenzia noted that “if this result can be achieved through negotiations, we stand ready for this scenario. If not – then our tasks will be achieved by military means.”

https://www.rt.com/russia/569851-russia-un-endgame-ukraine/

[علوي]

Ukrainian map shows Russian encirclement of Bakhmut taking shape.

[Northwest]

@علوي

Currently there is an internal struggle going on in Russia between the MoD and the PMC Wagner Group. Wagner financier Prigozhin is now openly accusing Putin’s entourage of treason for refusing to nationalise the properties of pro-Western Russian oligarchs. Prigozhin, who wants Putin’s administration to ban YouTube in Russia, also blames the MoD for failing to adapt to the conditions of the war in Ukraine and for its continued adherence to outmoded and ineffective methods. Wagner’s supporters also blame the MoD for refusing to recognise the role of Wagner’s fighters in capturing Soledar recently, even though the MoD made veiled allusions to “volunteer detachments.”

Many Russian nationalists who by no means are pro-Ukraine have criticised the MoD and Putin personally for being too “soft” on Ukraine/NATO. (I’ve already mentioned the anti-Putin, pro-Novorossiya soldier Igor “Strelkov” Girkin on a number of occasions.) Interestingly, to date Putin has not censored his pro-Russian critics on this. All this assumes pertinacity in light of NATO’s plans to ship large quantities of modern tanks and potentially aircraft to Ukraine. Russian actions so far have failed to deter NATO from taking drastic steps to bolster its support for Ukraine. The question is, Will Russia be able to repel the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensives in the spring/summer?

So far even Ukrainian and Western sources see no sign that Russia is preparing a major counteroffensive from the northern direction, i.e., Belarus.

[علوي]

13 hours ago, Northwest said:

Currently there is an internal struggle going on in Russia between the MoD and the PMC Wagner Group. Wagner financier Prigozhin is now openly accusing Putin’s entourage of treason for refusing to nationalise the properties of pro-Western Russian oligarchs. Prigozhin, who wants Putin’s administration to ban YouTube in Russia, also blames the MoD for failing to adapt to the conditions of the war in Ukraine and for its continued adherence to outmoded and ineffective methods. Wagner’s supporters also blame the MoD for refusing to recognise the role of Wagner’s fighters in capturing Soledar recently, even though the MoD made veiled allusions to “volunteer detachments.”

The truth, but not the whole truth. Although there clearly is a problem between the Wagner Group and the Russian MoD, it's not all negative. For example, after the fall of Soledar, the MoD praised the Wagner Group for its assault. Also, Prigozhin agreed with General Surovikin on the withdrawal from Kherson. Anyway, when we remind ourselves that Wagner and the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) have a common goal in Ukraine, (i.e. the goals specified by President Putin in his February 24 speech), we find that these issues won't have a big effect on the Special Military Operation (SMO). 

I don't mention this to deflect attention, but as I have already replied to the division between the Wagner Group and the MoD, I will still do so. In Zelenskyy's circle, we see that they are no more united than the Russian forces. We saw just the other day how, when Zelenskyy's aide, Aleksey Arestovich, admitted that the recent tragedy on the Dnepr residential building was due to Ukraine's air defence systems, that he resigned, supposedly because his admission was incorrect. (Yeah, as if one of Zelenskyy's top advisors had his facts mixed up). Anyway, the incident clearly shows that Kiev is no more united than Moscow. 

13 hours ago, Northwest said:

All this assumes pertinacity in light of NATO’s plans to ship large quantities of modern tanks and potentially aircraft to Ukraine. Russian actions so far have failed to deter NATO from taking drastic steps to bolster its support for Ukraine. The question is, Will Russia be able to repel the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensives in the spring/summer?

So far even Ukrainian and Western sources see no sign that Russia is preparing a major counteroffensive from the northern direction, i.e., Belarus.

Russia doesn't need to launch a counteroffensive. It's better for them that the SMO remain a slow war of attrition, because they know they'll win. From their point of view, the West sending its tanks (which, by the way, will most definitely not have the massive effect that you make out - I very much recommend the last three videos of The New Atlas to see this -) is only going to prolong the war - but it's not going to "turn the tide" in Ukraine's favour. 

This video is also great.

[Haji 2003]

Leopard & Challenger

Much being made at the moment of Germany's reluctance to supply UKR with Leopards, and Britain's offer to supply Challengers.

I've seen reports of 12 European countries possibly being able to supply Leopard's if Germany will allow them.

Out of interest I looked at what countries use Challengers.

Seems to be UK and Oman.

That's it.

I get the distinct impression that the UKR's willingness to accept the Challengers is not because they're any good, but just as a means of shaming Germany into supplying the tanks that they really want.

p.s.

Hands up those people who believe that the Omanis bought the Challenger on it being the best tank available and not because Britain put its ruler in power.

p.p.s.

The Persoids believe that they can handle the West better than the Arabs (because they're smarter). The Shah bought half billion £ of Challengers from Britain (1979 money) before he was kicked out. Muppet.

[علوي]

^^ Germany said that it "would not stand in the way" if Poland sent its Leopards to Ukraine.

[Son of Placid]

Lara Logan gives her two cents.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8hDJ6sPyWo

Edited January 23, 2023 by Son of Placid

[Haji 2003]

A solution that won't happen

Came across a reference to this article elsewhere. Very interesting. The author is serious economist and author of a well-regarded and best selling book.

He's calling for an international public register of wealth.

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To implement this type of measure, it would be sufficient for western countries to finally set up an international financial registry (also known as a “global financial registry” or GFR) that would keep track of who owns what in the various countries. As the World Inequality Report 2018 has already shown, such a project is technically possible and requires the public authorities to take control of the private central depositories (Clearstream, Euroclear, Depository Trust Corporation, etc) that currently register securities and their owners. This public register would also be an essential step in the fight against illicit flows, drug money and international corruption.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/16/russia-rich-wealthy-western-elites-thomas-piketty

[Haji 2003]

Insulting the intelligence

 

We knew the following:

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Before the war, corruption scandals were an almost daily feature of Ukrainian political life. The country was ranked 122 out of 180 by Transparency International in 2021, making it one of the world’s most corrupt countries. The EU has made anti-corruption reforms one of the key requirements for Ukraine gaining EU membership.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/23/ukraine-deputy-minister-sacked-for-alleged-theft-of-400000

 

According to the Guardian if you have a very corrupt country and you throw billions of $ at it ...

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Since the war, there have been far fewer known instances of corruption as society focused on the wartime effort. But journalists have returned to scrutinising the elites in recent months.

 

It solves the corruption problem!

[Haji 2003]

Former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan ...

 

[Haji 2003]

All Quiet on the Western Front

Watching the latest version of this movie, it occurred to me that while the First World War generals have been criticised for sending millions of young men to their deaths - there may have been an underlying logic to this.

They were demonstrating to the other side their ability to endure huge amounts of pain - willingly. Whether those poor soldiers achieved anything or not was besides the point.

This would explain the modern day Russian tactics, which seem completely irrational i.e. sending badly/inadequately trained troops directly into the front line.

It also explains the West's willingness to take economic pain (high natural gas prices) and seemingly open ended economic support for UKR.

Both sides are trying to see who will blink first. And signalling to the other side that they have no intention of blinking first.

[Haji 2003]

This has all the hallmarks of mission creep

I get the impression that each step we take may or may not have a military purpose, but it certainly does seem to be prepping the public to accept ever greater levels of involvement.

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Lockheed Martin has said it stands ready to meet demand for its F-16 aircraft as some of Ukraine’s closest European allies revive efforts to provide fighter jets to Kyiv.

https://www.ft.com/content/88d19145-5235-45e4-80e6-ade3530060d2

 

I remember the comments made by British soldiers' widows when their husbands were brought back in coffins from Afghanistan. They did not want the mission to end because then those lives would have been in vain.

Same principle here.

You reach a point where you have to keep throwing resource at a problem because not to do so would be to admit that the previous rolls of the dice were wasted.

[Haji 2003]

You're a refugee fleeing war, but still have time to be racist towards people in the host country

 

[Northwest]

According to this article, the Russian oil company LUKOil, a private business and the second-biggest oil company in Russia, has been supplying Ukraine via Bulgaria. The only oil refinery in Bulgaria, one of the largest in the Balkan region, is operated by LUKOil, and up to 40% of the fuel for the Ukrainian army consists of Russian supplies via Bulgaria. The previous head of LUKOil was on very good terms with Putin. Note that Russian oil shipments via Bulgaria have been mysteriously exempted from EU sanctions. Taken together, the evidence indicates that Putin and NATO have a secret arrangement to supply both sides of the conflict in Ukraine. So clearly the conflict is a big scam that is probably related to the ongoing Great Reset.

[Northwest]

On 1/26/2023 at 7:20 PM, Northwest said:

According to this article, the Russian oil company LUKOil, a private business and the second-biggest oil company in Russia, has been supplying Ukraine via Bulgaria. The only oil refinery in Bulgaria, one of the largest in the Balkan region, is operated by LUKOil, and up to 40% of the fuel for the Ukrainian army consists of Russian supplies via Bulgaria. The previous head of LUKOil was on very good terms with Putin. Note that Russian oil shipments via Bulgaria have been mysteriously exempted from EU sanctions. Taken together, the evidence indicates that Putin and NATO have a secret arrangement to supply both sides of the conflict in Ukraine. So clearly the conflict is a big scam that is probably related to the ongoing Great Reset.

@Abu Nur @علوي @Haji 2003 

^ To follow up on this: Russian nationalists are claiming that the SMO is on the verge of defeat and that Putin needs to quickly retrain and amass large conventional forces in order to stymie the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. Local officials, along with guests on Russian media, are openly declaring that the SMO is failing to achieve its declared aim(s) and that Ukraine has successfully rearmed. Again, I must reiterate: these are not pro-NATO figures, but Russian patriots. They think that Russia will be defeated in Ukraine and Putin will be removed from power.

[علوي]

On 1/26/2023 at 9:17 PM, Haji 2003 said:

This has all the hallmarks of mission creep

I get the impression that each step we take may or may not have a military purpose, but it certainly does seem to be prepping the public to accept ever greater levels of involvement.

https://www.ft.com/content/88d19145-5235-45e4-80e6-ade3530060d2

 

I remember the comments made by British soldiers' widows when their husbands were brought back in coffins from Afghanistan. They did not want the mission to end because then those lives would have been in vain.

Same principle here.

You reach a point where you have to keep throwing resource at a problem because not to do so would be to admit that the previous rolls of the dice were wasted.

Not only that, but the military industrial complex (MIC) is still making money from all these weapons, obviously with Lockheed Martin included. And similar to Afghanistan, the MIC wants a prolonged war in order to boost sales.

Edited January 28, 2023 by علوي
mistake

[علوي]

On 1/27/2023 at 5:20 AM, Northwest said:

According to this article, the Russian oil company LUKOil, a private business and the second-biggest oil company in Russia, has been supplying Ukraine via Bulgaria. The only oil refinery in Bulgaria, one of the largest in the Balkan region, is operated by LUKOil, and up to 40% of the fuel for the Ukrainian army consists of Russian supplies via Bulgaria. The previous head of LUKOil was on very good terms with Putin. Note that Russian oil shipments via Bulgaria have been mysteriously exempted from EU sanctions. Taken together, the evidence indicates that Putin and NATO have a secret arrangement to supply both sides of the conflict in Ukraine. So clearly the conflict is a big scam that is probably related to the ongoing Great Reset.

lol

This really doesn't require a lot of thought. Bulgaria just isn't stupid and knows that it would be much better off with Russian oil. How does it make money off that oil? By selling it to Ukraine. And Russia is still benefitting from the oil exports, even if it means that Ukrainian vehicles have more fuel (which doesn't really mean anything to the Russians). 

4 hours ago, Northwest said:

@Abu Nur @علوي @Haji 2003 

^ To follow up on this: Russian nationalists are claiming that the SMO is on the verge of defeat and that Putin needs to quickly retrain and amass large conventional forces in order to stymie the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. Local officials, along with guests on Russian media, are openly declaring that the SMO is failing to achieve its declared aim(s) and that Ukraine has successfully rearmed. Again, I must reiterate: these are not pro-NATO figures, but Russian patriots. They think that Russia will be defeated in Ukraine and Putin will be removed from power.

Again, this is a slow war of attrition. The goal isn't to take land; it's to grind down the Ukrainian military. Don't take others' words for it, investigate yourself. Russian patriots claiming that the SMO is a failure is no more of a proof on me than Western journalists claiming that the SMO is a success are to you. 

[Son of Placid]

On 1/26/2023 at 3:17 AM, Haji 2003 said:

This has all the hallmarks of mission creep

It certainly does.
Ukraine is sucking the weapons out of every country it can as the world gets closer to joining the fight. 
Don't think for a minute Russia didn't know this would happen.

Putin says these new tanks can be destroyed just like the old ones. 
"Experts" are still telling the world not to overestimate Russia's ability.
Russia just brought out their kamikaze drones.  
If a leak on Russia's weaponry I saw a few years ago has any truth, this is just the start.

[علوي]

 

[Son of Placid]

 

[Ashvazdanghe]

"Mykhailo Podolyak", the advisor of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, claimed today (Sunday): "The targeting of Iranian sites in Isfahan is directly related to the war in Ukraine."

https://www.yjc.ir/fa/news/8349071/کی-یف-مدعی-ارتباط-حمله-پهپادی-اصفهان-با-جنگ-اوکراین-شد

 

Quote

In Ukraine, which accuses Iran of supplying hundreds of drones to Russia to attack civilian targets in Ukrainian cities far from the front, a senior aide to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy linked the incident directly to the war there.

 

Quote

"Explosive night in Iran," Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted. "Did warn you."

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-heard-military-plant-irans-central-city-isfahan-state-media-2023-01-28/

 

 

[علوي]

Germany reiterates stance not to send warplanes to Ukraine

This is such a joke. They said the same thing about the tanks, but look at them now. Hypocrites.

[علوي]

For those who don't believe Russian elections because the Western propaganda has deceived them, here.

https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf

It's an American-conducted poll in 2013 about Crimeans' opinions on Russia.

Respondents, when asked "Regardless of your passport, what do you consider yourself?" responded thus:

40% - the largest minority - identified as "Russian". When coupled with "Crimean" and "Crimean-Tatar", that percentage is 79%. On the other hand, only 15% of respondents identified as "Ukrainian".

Here's another question, which sums up the opinions of the Crimeans even more:

If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, which entity should it be with?

Whilst only 17% of respondents supported entering the European Union, a majority of 53% supported joining a Customs Union with Russia.

To demonstrate things even clearly yet again, take a look at this question.

How would you evaluate your attitude to the following entities?

When asked about feelings towards Russia, 68% of respondents said they were "warm", and 5% said they were "cold". When asked about feelings towards the EU, Poland, and the US, 6-14% of respondents stated that feelings were "warm", while 12-24% stated that they were "cold". 

By the way, 

Quote

The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.

So there you have it. An American poll showing Crimeans voicing their opinions on Russia.

There was also a question conducted on the status of Crimea, but only a minority voted in favour of joining the Russian Federation (23-33%). However, after seeing what happened with the Maidan coup in 2014 - seeing the democratically-elected government of Ukraine be ousted by the US, it's not far-fetched to believe that this particular statistic had risen. Nevertheless, in that same question, only 2-6% of respondents said they would like to see Crimea as a common oblast of Ukraine. The majority of voters (49-53%) voted in favour of maintaining the then status-quo; having Crimea has an autonomy in Ukraine. 

Here's the link again: https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec705.pdf

[علوي]

Weapons for Ukraine - updates

While Ukrainians haven't even been finished training on Western tanks, there is already talk about sending fighter jets such as F-16s and the like.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said that France is open to sending F-16s, but also warned against escalation at the same time.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova responded to the French President by sarcastically saying: "Western military injections - how did Mr. Macron put it? - will not lead to an escalation of the conflict. Well, of course, they ‘give’ peace. Obviously these planes are going to be used to drop cookies and candy, right? I have a different feeling."

The majority of Western nations (including the US, the UK, Germany, and Poland - despite the fact that Kiev has expressed hope that Warsaw would send its F-16s -) have drawn the line at jets. The reason given by London and Warsaw to explain the refusal of the fighter jets to Ukraine was it would be too difficult to train Ukrainians to operate them (effectively). 

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel will consider sending weapons (such as its Iron Dome) to Ukraine, while simultaneously suggesting that he's open to mediating between Russia and Ukraine. 

In response to this statement by the Israeli PM, Russian FM spokeswoman Zakharova warned Israel and said that sending more weapons to Ukraine would cause an escalation in the conflict.

She also stated that "all countries that supply weapons (to Ukraine) should understand that we will consider these (weapons) to be legitimate targets for Russia’s armed forces."

[علوي]

Putin sets mission for Russian military

Quote

Ukraine should not have the ability to target Russian border regions, President Vladimir Putin said on Monday, adding that this was a mission for the defense ministry in Moscow. His comments came a day after Ukrainian shelling struck near a pipeline in Bryansk Region, and amid rumors the US is preparing to give Kiev longer-range projectiles.
...
Some 3,700 residents of the border villages in Belgorod Region have been displaced by Ukrainian artillery attacks, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said at the meeting, adding that the government had set aside funding to provide them with housing and everything else they need.

https://www.rt.com/russia/570821-putin-military-ukraine-shelling/

While on the topic of infrastructure, I remember reading an article on construction starting on numerous cities in the Donbass region as well as Zaporozhye and Kherson. I'll see if I can find some more.

[علوي]

 

[Abu Nur]

Is it true that Pakistan is sending ammunition to Ukraine?

[Haji 2003]

19 hours ago, Abu Nur said:

Is it true that Pakistan is sending ammunition to Ukraine?

It would not be surprising.

Here is information from an article that's a couple of months old:

Quote

Pakistan also has more than 320 Ukrainian T-80UD tanks in service with a fully formed ecosystem for their upkeep, use, ammunition and spare parts. 

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/ukraine-pakistan-create-nuclear-weapon-axis-says-russian-senator/articleshow/95218575.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

It was Imran Khan who went to Putin about grain supplies, the new government likely wants to show that it has made a U-turn in its stance.

[Abu Nur]

10 hours ago, Haji 2003 said:

It would not be surprising.

Here is information from an article that's a couple of months old:

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/ukraine-pakistan-create-nuclear-weapon-axis-says-russian-senator/articleshow/95218575.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

 

It was Imran Khan who went to Putin about grain supplies, the new government likely wants to show that it has made a U-turn in its stance.

Absolutely shameful.

[Haji 2003]

Who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline?

interesting article by Seymour Hersh (Pulitzer Prize winner).

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

[علوي]

On 10/27/2022 at 7:41 AM, علوي said:

Zelenskyy has posted images which glorify neo-nazi soldiers

He's at it again.