Russian invasion of Ukraine [Official Thread]

[علوي]

 

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Russian forces to withdraw from Ukraine this Christmas.
...
Responding to Zelensky, Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said on Tuesday that withdrawing troops was "out of the question."

"The Ukrainian side needs to take into account the realities that have developed during this time," he said.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/12/13/694414/Russia-rejects-Zelensky-withdrawal-proposal-saying-Kiev-must-accept-new-realities

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British Royal Marines conducted high-risk operations in Ukraine in April, Lieutenant General Robert Magowan wrote in the force’s official journal. Before Magowan’s admission, Russia’s claims that NATO troops were active in Ukraine had been dismissed by Western analysts and media.

https://www.rt.com/russia/568189-uk-troops-ukraine-operations/

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Almost all NATO countries are looking at depleted stockpiles of weapons and ammunition due to the amount of aid they’ve sent to Ukraine, US ambassador to the bloc Julianne Smith admitted on Tuesday.

https://www.rt.com/news/568193-nato-weapons-ukraine-shortfall/

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The administration of US President Joe Biden is finalizing plans to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine, CNN reported on Tuesday.

https://www.rt.com/russia/568197-us-patriot-missiles-ukraine

^ https://t.me/brianlovethailand/1171

Quote

 US may send Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, CNN claims...

Patriots take MONTHS to train large crews to operate but CNN claims the systems will be sent in "days;"

US has been running low on Patriot interceptors, like with all other weapon systems and munitions, production is slow & in low quantities - Saudi Arabia ran out of missiles and needed to ask Arab neighbors because the US had none to sell;

Patriot systems have performed poorly in Saudi Arabia against missiles and drones used by Yemen and likely produced by Iran - Patriots in Ukraine will be up against better and many times more numerous threats;

Why is the US sending a system to Ukraine Ukrainians won't be able to use for months (unless US personnel will operate them), has few actual missiles to deal with large numbers of Russian missiles & drones, and has a poor performance record?

 

[Haji 2003]

Russian preparations for Round Two

 

[علوي]

^ Some journalists/analysts are saying that the Russians are going to deploy into Ukraine from Belarus and cut off the border with Poland in order to stop the weapons coming in. 

[علوي]

Russian arms manufacturers switch to six-day working week

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Arms manufacturers in Sverdlovsk Region in Russia’s Urals are working longer weeks due to the conflict in Ukraine, a trade unions chief has said.

Enterprises that are busy fulfilling government defense orders “are now working six days [a week] instead of five,” Andrey Vetluzhskykh, the head of the federation of local trade unions, said during a press conference in Ekaterinburg on Friday.

Working days could also be increased for employees, Vetluzhskykh added, noting that the Russian law allows for the addition of four hours per shift in the event of “production necessity.” That means “working up to 12 hours daily,” he explained.

https://www.rt.com/russia/568381-urals-defense-industry-ukraine/

[علوي]

US troops deployed near Russian border

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A United States infantry company arrived in Estonia this week as part of NATO’s effort to bolster the military bloc’s eastern border with Russia, the Baltic country’s defense ministry has revealed.

A statement published on the ministry’s website on Friday said that US service members are stationed at Taara base in the town of Voru, some 20 kilometers from the Russian border. 

https://www.rt.com/news/568395-us-troops-deployed-estonia/

[Northwest]

On 12/15/2022 at 9:52 PM, علوي said:

^ Some journalists/analysts are saying that the Russians are going to deploy into Ukraine from Belarus and cut off the border with Poland in order to stop the weapons coming in. 

The main problem with this assertion is that it has been repeated by the West for a long time, yet so far there are few, if any, indicators on the Russian side that the resources are there for an incursion from Belarus. Sources outside the West indicate that Russia has very few assets in Belarus for an invasion of Ukraine from the north. Also, the terrain and transportation do not allow for a massive southward thrust toward Zhitomir and/or Vinnitsa. There are few viable roadways to the northwest of Kiev, for instance, and terrain is marshy. I don’t think anything is going to happen on this front.

[علوي]

22 hours ago, Northwest said:

The main problem with this assertion is that it has been repeated by the West for a long time, yet so far there are few, if any, indicators on the Russian side that the resources are there for an incursion from Belarus. Sources outside the West indicate that Russia has very few assets in Belarus for an invasion of Ukraine from the north. Also, the terrain and transportation do not allow for a massive southward thrust toward Zhitomir and/or Vinnitsa. There are few viable roadways to the northwest of Kiev, for instance, and terrain is marshy. I don’t think anything is going to happen on this front.

Agreed. I don't think this offensive is necessary, and the Russians wouldn't do anything unless it's necessary. 

[Son of Placid]

On 12/16/2022 at 3:01 PM, علوي said:

Andrey Vetluzhskykh, the head of the federation of local trade unions

Of Ukraine. Like every good union official, he must make a speech.
Does he expect Russia to follow Ukrainian union labour laws? 
He just lost most of his labour force. I imagine union dues too.  
Ukraine's parliament just passed their new labour laws last July.

"The adoption of law no 5371 will exclude workers of small and medium-sized companies from legal protection by setting a new "contractual regime for regulating labour relations", where all working conditions are determined by an employment contract instead of by labour law."

[علوي]

1 hour ago, Son of Placid said:

Of Ukraine.

??

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On Friday, Andrey Vetluzhskykh, the head of the Trade Union Federation in the Sverdlovsk Region of Russia’s Urals, said defense enterprises had switched to a six-day working week.

https://thepressunited.com/updates/russian-troops-get-fresh-batch-of-penicillin-ria/

[علوي]

‘Reconquest’ of Crimea has started – Zelensky

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Ukrainians are now psychologically ready to retake the Crimean Peninsula from Russia by force, President Vladimir Zelensky told French broadcaster TF1 in an interview on Sunday. "The Reconquest" of Crimea has supposedly already started in Ukrainians’ heads, the president claimed, hinting that he could visit the "de-occupied" peninsula as early as 2023.

"The operation itself has not started yet," Zelensky said, when asked about Kiev’s plans for Crimea. "When it starts, you will definitely hear about it," he told TF1, adding that he personally believes "the reconquest of Crimea has started in people’s heads, and that’s very important."

https://www.rt.com/russia/568463-ukraine-reconquest-crimea-start-zelensky/

This guy thinks he's Richard the Lionheart or something.

[Son of Placid]

On 12/18/2022 at 3:09 PM, علوي said:

‘Reconquest’ of Crimea has started – Zelensky

https://www.rt.com/russia/568463-ukraine-reconquest-crimea-start-zelensky/

This guy thinks he's Richard the Lionheart or something.

He's running the world out of weapons, Putin is about to reload.
I started watching a video the other day and this guy is saying to stop overestimating Russia. 
Might not be the best idea.

[Haji 2003]

You can't blame him

It's a relatively easy sell to people who desperately want to believe. Of course there have always been doubts about how democratic Ukraine is and the extent to which its riddled with corruption.

But if someone is willing to write blank cheques, he'd be mad not to take up the chance.

 

[Son of Placid]

I don't think I can believe this guy. "The Russians are losing, of course, but are gaining territory"
 

 

[علوي]

Putin Speaks to Media - Updates on Special Military Operation

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TASS has collected the key remarks that Putin made.

The year’s results

Perfect situations exist only on paper but Russia made it through the year "quite steadily." The current situation does not prevent the country from implementing its plans for the future. All goals will undoubtedly be achieved.

The special military operation was a forced measure.

The Russian economy is performing better than many G-20 countries and there are no troubling indicators.

On State of the Nation Address

The president will deliver his State of the Nation Address to the Federal Assembly early next year: "I won’t give you any dates but we will definitely do it next year."

The rapidly changing situation, which makes it difficult to speak about specific things, is one of the reasons why there was no address this year. The key points that could have made it into the address were touched upon in other speeches.

On US role in Ukraine situation

Putin noted that Washington has long been involved in processes in post-Soviet countries and has long sought to divide the Russian World.

Russia was being "led around by the nose" in terms of resolving the situation in Ukraine since 2014 and Moscow’s opponents achieved their goal, to a certain extent, dividing the two countries' people and setting them against each other. Moscow failed there. "No one wants the Russian people to unite. <...> But we will try to achieve this and we will succeed."

On Patriot supplies to Kiev

The Patriot missile systems that the US has promised to provide to Ukraine are quite old systems and don’t work the way Russia’s S-300 systems do. An antidote to them will be found and "we will crack Patriot missiles, too." "It is nothing but an attempt to prolong the conflict, that’s all."

On the possible protraction of conflict

Russia does not want to escalate the conflict in Ukraine but seeks to end the war that broke out there in 2014. The sooner the conflict ends, the better. A rise in military activities will lead to unnecessary losses.

On Western and Russian defense industries

Western countries aren’t about to run out of their resources but the stockpiles of weapons left over from the Soviet era are definitely running low. It will not be easy for Ukraine to shift to NATO weapons.

Russia is using its stock of weapons but the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is "if not completely zeroed out, then rapidly moving in that direction."

Russia is capable of increasing weapons production but the authorities don’t plan to do that at the expense of other sectors of the economy.

On diplomatic solution to Ukraine issue

Moscow has never refused to hold talks with Kiev and it was the Ukrainian leadership that barred itself from negotiating. All conflicts end diplomatically and the sooner the Ukrainian authorities realize this, the better.

On meeting with ‘business captains’

There was no traditional meeting with Russia’s ‘business captains’ ahead of the holiday season due to the epidemiological situation. However, the president maintains contact with key entrepreneurs.

On response to price caps

A decree on Moscow’s response to the price cap on Russian oil will be signed "on Monday or Tuesday." The price cap itself won’t harm Russia but it paves the way for the destruction of the global economy.

The European Union’s move to cap gas prices will also lead to nothing good. If the decision affects Gazprom’s contracts, the need will arise to think about whether it is worth it to implement them.

On Nord Stream explosions

The explosions that hit the Nord Stream gas pipelines were acts of state terrorism as no individuals could have done that. Those who are interested in continuing the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine are behind the terrorist attack.

On plans for New Year’s Eve

The head of state will try to celebrate the New Year with his family members.

https://tass.com/politics/1554823

[علوي]

Poll reveals how much Russians’ trust Putin in 2022

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MOSCOW, December 26. /TASS/. The average level of Russians' trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2022 is 78%, Valery Fyodorov, Director General of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, said on Monday, citing data obtained in the course of daily telephone polls among 1,600 adult Russians living in 80 regions of the Russian Federation.

https://tass.com/society/1555985

[Haji 2003]

Guardian focuses on Muslim Indian businesses

 

Rizwan said the leather sold to Russian companies was a “particular kind of leather, used only for army shoes and for safety shoes for industries like oil and gas’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/30/indian-leather-companies-russia-war-effort?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Russian & Indian trade is worth hundreds of millions but the Indian Muslim leather business is the only one they can focus on. 
 

and we know leather is a sensitive issue in India.

[Northwest]

Now even pro-Putin sources in Moscow are complaining about the fact that the government has preferred to finance the private military contractor (PMC) Wagner Group while failing to provide even basic equipment to the regular Army. Soldiers have been forced to rely on private donators rather than the state for armour, clothing, kneepads, and so on. A prominent TV host who has supported Putin and the SMO now concedes that the military is facing “severe problems” due to shortages of equipment and inadequate training. In fact, he even reports that untrained units are being deployed on the frontlines without equipment!

[Marbles]

This war was meant to prove Russia's military might but, several months on, it has only shown that Russian military is rubbish and their generals are useless. 

The plan was to strike terror into the hearts of the Ukrainians. Putin hoped that the Ukrainian army units will melt away and run for dear life after the initial volley of air strikes and that the joker president would flee the country. A new (or old) pro-Russian government would then take charge and Ukraine would return into the Russian fold.

On the contrary everything has gone wrong for Russians. Everything.

[علوي]

14 hours ago, Marbles said:

The plan was to strike terror into the hearts of the Ukrainians. Putin hoped that the Ukrainian army units will melt away and run for dear life after the initial volley of air strikes and that the joker president would flee the country. A new (or old) pro-Russian government would then take charge and Ukraine would return into the Russian fold.

?!??

Where did this come from?

This is an extract from Putin's speech on February 24 2022:

Quote

I made a decision to carry out a special military operation.

The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67843

I've stressed this countless times before, and I can't believe I'm repeating it again. The goals of the operation were to protect the ethnic Russians in the Donbass republics, "demilitarise" and "denazify" Ukraine, and punish the perpetrators of the crimes against those ethnic Russians. Has Russia achieved/are they on track to achieve these goals?

1. Goal 1: "Protect[ion of] people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime."

This goal has been mostly achieved; closer to being achieved than out of reach.

Back in the first few months of the operation - sometime from March to May, I can't remember exactly - Russian ended the Ukrainian war crime of cutting off water supply to the Crimean Peninsula. 

Russia has also allowed the regions of Kherson, Donyetsk, Lugansk, and Zaporozhye to vote to become republics of the Russian Federation. Russia has taken full control over the Lugansk People's Republic, and obviously fighting is underway to liberate the other regions. Although Kiev is still continuing its strikes on civilians in places such as Donyetsk city, it can no longer suppress Russian language, music, literature, religion, and culture altogether. 

2. Goal 2: Demilitarisation of Ukraine

Ukraine has no weapons. That's why it's begging the West for them. But guess what? The West is running out of weapons too! And it's not only weapons, but troops, too. Remember when Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, announced on Twitter that 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed by the Russians? Well, that's 40% of the number of active Ukrainian troops before February 2022.

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Ukraine had about 250,000 men and women in uniform before the war

https://www.voanews.com/a/as-ukraine-loses-troops-how-long-can-it-keep-up-the-fight-/6603860.html

Back in June, this was Zelenskyy's estimate of Ukrainian casualties:

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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this week that Ukraine is now losing 60-100 soldiers each day in combat.

https://www.voanews.com/a/as-ukraine-loses-troops-how-long-can-it-keep-up-the-fight-/6603860.html

However, a couple of weeks after that statement, one of Zelenskyy's closest advisors, David Arakhamia, admitted that the number was actually much higher:

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Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday.

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia

Ursula von der Leyen leaked the number 100,000 at the end of November, so that would have been about 270 days into the Special Military Operation (SMO). 100,000 / 270 ≈ 370. This number is in line with Ukraine's claims - without using any Russian information. 

Ursula's tweet was over a month ago. Since then, at the rate of 500-1,000 Ukrainian soldiers dying per day, Ukraine's losses would be more like 130,000 according to Kiev/Europe's estimates. 

And that's only the troops; I've already shown how many weapons and ammo Ukraine has lost/is losing.

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In total, 357 airplanes and 199 helicopters, 2,813 unmanned aerial vehicles, 399 air defence missile systems, 7,408 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 968 fighting vehicles equipped with MRLS, 3,772 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 7,920 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en/5661

So I think it's sensible to say that Russia is also achieving this goal. I also recommend the second half of this video for an update from US Colonel Douglas Macgregor on Ukrainian deaths.

3. Goal 3: Denazification of Ukraine

This is a hard one. When the Ukrainian parliament celebrates the birthday of Stephan Bandera, it's pretty difficult to denazify the country. Nevertheless, I'm sure the outcome of the Mariupol battle is sufficient proof for being on track to achieve this goal.

4. Goal 4: "[B]ring[ing] to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation."

This goal is less likely to be achieved in the way it was intended. Although Russia has tried many times to prosecute Kiev at the UN, the UN takes the West's side - (big surprise). 

https://www.rt.com/russia/553242-bucha-un-security-council/

https://www.rt.com/russia/560576-zaporozhye-nuclear-plant-un/

Anyway, back to the point. These four goals were Russia's purposes for launching the SMO. It is undeniable that they are being achieved. 

The West is trying so hard to twist the narrative and have you believe that Russia was trying to destroy and occupy all of Ukraine, but this just simply couldn't be further from the truth. 

Again, I recommend everyone to watch (at least the second half of) the following video for an update of the Ukraine situation by American Colonel Douglas Macgregor. 

 

[Abu Nur]

5 hours ago, علوي said:

Where did this come from?

This is an extract from Putin's speech on February 24 2022:

Quote

The problem is that how we really even can trust the speech of these individuals that publicly and privately may have very different conclusion. Outwardly yes, it seems to us that Russia want to protect their people and their interest, but as how they will proceed and what they really want is something that can be very different from our own analysis. It is possible that their original intention was exactly how @Marbles describes, because that would be ideal and logical move to make for minimum loss and fast archival goal, where old government that is pro Russia could take over again and that there would no pro-west movements or parties influence in Ukraine, which make it ideal to Russia.

[Marbles]

6 hours ago, علوي said:

?!??

Where did this come from?

This is an extract from Putin's speech on February 24 2022:

The excerpt from the speech talks about the goals of the invasion. It says nothing about how it would be carried out. Even then, only naïve people take at face value words that come out of the mouths of rulers.

In any case, the first few weeks made it pretty clear what the Russians had wanted out of their so called military operation. You don't attack Kiev and run it over with missiles and tanks if the purpose of the invasion was solely to protect ethnic Russians in Donbass. The purpose was regime change and return of the country back to the Russian fold.

I'm sympathetic to the Russian concerns regarding NATO's expansion but the Russians have failed spectacularly in stopping NATO from building bases next to their country.

 

Edited January 5 by Marbles

[Ashvazdanghe]

26 minutes ago, Marbles said:

The excerpt from the speech talks about the goals of the invasion. It says nothing about how it would be carried out. Even then, only naïve people take at face value words that come out of the mouths of rulers.

Salam

"WAR IS BUSINESS and BUSINESS IS GOOD"

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2015377/characters/nm0835459

Real losers of war will be poor & naive taxpayers who belive to propganda of major weapon manufacturers & weapon dealers whether legal or black market dealers about losing one side & supporting other side by them whether Russia or America.

Ukraine sells weapons on black market due to limited ability to use

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Ukraine is selling weapons it acquired from the West on the black market due to the Kiev forces' limited ability to use them because of their lack of training, logistical challenges, and the diminishing size of the Ukrainian armed forces, former senior Pentagon adviser Karen Kwiatkowski told Sputnik on Thursday.

 

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The statements by Moscow and the Pentagon are not just claims, as Kiev itself backed them by admitting that foreign aid meant for Ukraine was already being sold.

 

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Ukraine's Bureau of Economic Security Director Vadym Melnyk told Ukraine 24 earlier this week that the agency had identified repeated cases of the sale of Western military and humanitarian aid.

 

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"Given that these items are 'free,' a great deal of profit can be made by] selling what is not needed or cannot be easily used," Kwiatkowski said.

Kwiatkowski also highlighted how ironically, some of the weapons Ukraine is selling will likely end up in the hands of the Russian armed forces and their allies.

Even weapons that Kiev could utilize on the battlefield will eventually be sold, the former defense official noted, including the high mobility and efficacy ones.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/ukraine-sells-weapons-on-black-market-due-to-limited-ability

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one conspiracy-inclined website, purportedly citing anonymous Ukrainians, claimed the "the weapons are stolen" to such a degree that Ukraine, as of August, had already "lost the war" because of the black market diversion.

 

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"There's been a lot of disinformation," Elias Yousif, a research analyst at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank focused on international security issues, said in an interview.

In July, Yousif co-wrote an article urging US and Ukrainian authorities to develop a plan for stockpiling weapons at the end of the conflict. As of now, he said, "I don't think we've actually seen any real diversion, particularly outside the country."

 

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Even a tiny fraction of the weapons provided to Ukraine — a country with a decades-long problem of corruption — making it to the black market could be potentially devastating. 

'A lot of concern'

Small arms — rifles and pistols — are one thing. But Ukraine has also been provided more advanced weapons systems that donors have been loath to give to others before.

Quote

The fear that the weapon could end up in the hands of extremists led the CIA to intervene in Syria to prevent rebels fighting the Assad regime from ever getting them.

 

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In 2015, a study by the Flemish Peace Institute, a research group that tracks the flow of weapons in Europe, found that the majority of guns on the black market came from the Balkans.

 

Quote

European authorities say the same thing.

Katarzyna Volkmann, a spokesperson for Frontex, the European border control agency, told Insider it has detected an uptick in firearms crossing between nations. But she said it was "not clear whether those detections were due [to] increased smuggling activities or enhanced border checks."

 

Quote

Yuliya Matsyk, a spokesperson for the European Commission, likewise told Insider that,"To date, there is no information indicating that large-scale firearms trafficking out of Ukraine is ongoing." But Europe and its law enforcement agencies are on a heightened state of alert.

" Matsyk said, "experience from previous military conflicts such as in the Western Balkans shows that when a high volume of small arms and light weapons is available in one region, it could likely lead in the mid- and long-term to trafficking of these weapons to other regions, specifically after the conflict ceases or its scale becomes limited." Indeed, "This could become a destabilizing factor, in particular for nearby regions and also a significant threat to the EU and Ukraine because organized crime groups and terrorists could have access to these trafficked weapons." 

 

At the time, EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson said there were "some indications" that such trafficking was already taking place.

Quote

The total number of guns captured points to an uptick in trafficking, not a flood: in all, 24 weapons were seized after Russia invaded Ukraine, Moldovan authorities said, compared to just two in the same period a year before.

 

"There is nearly no transparency in Western media about how Russia's infusion of weapons into the country is being accounted for," Jeff Abramson, a senior fellow at the Arms Control Association in Washington, told Insider. "

Quote

When the war ends, that could well change. So far, though, only one side is taking visible steps to address it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/no-sign-of-mass-arms-trafficking-from-ukraine-authorities-say-2022-10

Letters to the Editor: War is really good for business, and that’s a huge problem

Quote

To the editor: Andrew J. Bacevich is precisely correct: America is involved in endless wars, because that is exactly what the American military establishment wants.

This embroilment in foreign lands demands people, money, paychecks, careers, pensions, arms makers and the whole quagmire that goes with foreign occupation. It’s a never-ending source of revenue from the federal coffers that feeds the professions of millions and millions of Americans, both civilians and military people.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-12-11/endless-war-defense-spending

[Northwest]

On 1/1/2023 at 8:58 PM, Northwest said:

Now even pro-Putin sources in Moscow are complaining about the fact that the government has preferred to finance the private military contractor (PMC) Wagner Group while failing to provide even basic equipment to the regular Army. Soldiers have been forced to rely on private donators rather than the state for armour, clothing, kneepads, and so on. A prominent TV host who has supported Putin and the SMO now concedes that the military is facing “severe problems” due to shortages of equipment and inadequate training. In fact, he even reports that untrained units are being deployed on the frontlines without equipment!

@علوي: What do you think about this? ^ Even Putin backers say the Army is ill equipped.

Edited January 5 by Northwest

[Son of Placid]

10 hours ago, Northwest said:

Even Putin backers say the Army is ill equipped

Front lines are always ill equipped. You take everything you can get with you, then you use it. 
Soldiers have uniforms. What clothing do they need? You don't get daily change of socks and underwear on the front line. I don't really know.
I am wary of every report from any side at this point. Everybody has a different story.
Russian sources for information are all cut off, Ukraine as well. First hand info is almost impossible. Everything is opinion, it depends who owns the opinion. Every headline requires research.  How much is click bait? I don't care if the Ukrainian head of the labour union says Russia is overworking their people building arms. Another report says Russia hasn't needed to build more arms yet.
I saw a "leaked file" of Russia's new weaponry a few years back. If the file was true, Putin hasn't used any of it yet. I also saw some guy saying the US should not overestimate Russia's weaponry because all they've seen is old tech.
Mainstream media is a blue pill.

Russia is no longer the USSR. No more bread lines. Capitalism has boosted their economy.
I watched a video, (should have saved it), of a Russian girl going through a shopping mall to show how many stores had closed. The shopping mall reminded me of one I saw in Vegas. 4 stories of stores, she noted less than a dozen stores closed, only complained about one American clothing store she liked.

All McDonalds closed, a Russian business bought them out and opened them again, new name. People complained the fries were not the same, I haven't seen if they changed the fries or people got used to them. Russia does a lot with potatoes. Maybe the new fries still had some nutrition in them which would alter the flavour, I may never know.
 
Rebel News is a Canadian independent. They sent reporters over to see how this war had effected inflation. They aren't paying $8. for a head of lettuce, (I'll grow my own). The people said they hadn't noticed much difference. "Gas goes up 2-3 rubles, then goes down 2-3 rubles..."
Their economy is fine. The rest of the world has gone nuts.

It's hard for me to picture Putin as the crazed warmongering dictator trying to take over the world through notorious means at this point. 

I believe that Putin will do exactly what he set out to do and take the regions he said he would. He'll do to Ukraine what they make him do, but he's not looking at a full takeover, at least for now. He may give the US an opportunity to move their hub of corruption to some other country. Putin has been building arms for a very long time. He's been watching the Donbas region long before he took Crimea. His strategy is draining many countries who pledged to support Ukraine and NATO.
Zelensky is demanding tanks from the US now and as much money as he can get, the US supplies as much as they can. Zelensky sells off what he can't use to the black market. The US will be fighting their own equipment for the next few wars, again.

To be honest, I think it would have been much cheaper on the world to build new cities and move all the Russian people who wanted to into brand new homes in Russia.  

[علوي]

15 hours ago, Abu Nur said:

The problem is that how we really even can trust the speech of these individuals that publicly and privately may have very different conclusion. Outwardly yes, it seems to us that Russia want to protect their people and their interest, but as how they will proceed and what they really want is something that can be very different from our own analysis. It is possible that their original intention was exactly how @Marbles describes, because that would be ideal and logical move to make for minimum loss and fast archival goal, where old government that is pro Russia could take over again and that there would no pro-west movements or parties influence in Ukraine, which make it ideal to Russia.

The original plan was to scare Kiev into negotiating, which worked. And, like previously mentioned, when Russia withdrew out of goodwill, Kiev lost any interest in negotiating. 

But this war was always going to be a long one. I don't think Putin and the Kremlin were counting on Kiev negotiating; I'm sure they were expecting the need to use force. And that the West would send weapons to Ukraine. See, if the West hadn't gotten involved, Russia probably could have carried out its operation in a much faster manner. But because the West sent (and is still sending) billions of dollars worth of weapons and ammo to Kiev, the war has become a war of attrition. This, of course, still favours the Russians, since NATO has run out of weapons it can send to Kiev. (The rest of its supply is necessary in case of an attack on homeland). On the other hand, because Russia has been preserving its troops all this time through its tactics, the Russians are now on the offensive, and Ukraine has very little to defend itself.

(Note: This is why there are discussions about Poland joining the war. Like I said, NATO has not run out of weapons altogether; only weapons that can be sent to Ukraine. But if Poland joins the war (some are speculating they might because of an apparent mobilisation), more weapons can be used against Russia). 

[علوي]

14 hours ago, Marbles said:

The excerpt from the speech talks about the goals of the invasion. It says nothing about how it would be carried out. Even then, only naïve people take at face value words that come out of the mouths of rulers.

In any case, the first few weeks made it pretty clear what the Russians had wanted out of their so called military operation. You don't attack Kiev and run it over with missiles and tanks if the purpose of the invasion was solely to protect ethnic Russians in Donbass. The purpose was regime change and return of the country back to the Russian fold.

I'm sympathetic to the Russian concerns regarding NATO's expansion but the Russians have failed spectacularly in stopping NATO from building bases next to their country.

The Russians went towards Kiev in order to force Kiev to negotiate. They withdrew, (again), out of goodwill. If you don't want to believe that it was goodwill, because "the Russians are evil people without any moral code," or whatever, just believe that it wouldn't have been a good look for Moscow to have a hand on Kiev's throat throughout the negotiations.

But besides the reason, that was the plan. And it's the same plan they used in Syria; it's nothing new. 

The West wasn't going to give up Ukraine that easily. Just look at how long they spent in Afghanistan. The Ukraine was is literally the symbol of Western propaganda. You have a whole nation run by not only Neo-Nazis, but actual WWII Nazis, yet it still has support of millions of people. The West has even gotten them to somehow believe that Ukraine - Ukraine - can beat Russia, and the people believe it! 

One of the reasons why Russia couldn't just change the government in Ukraine was because of all the Nazis in Ukraine's army. If Russia had installed a pro-Moscow government, there would still have to be an SMO because of all the fascists in Ukraine's military. And the West would shave still sent weapons to these Nazis. In other words, it would have played out in the same way.

[علوي]

11 hours ago, Northwest said:

@علوي: What do you think about this? ^ Even Putin backers say the Army is ill equipped.

And it's probably true. When you have 400,000 troops, ~150,000 of whom are still training (last time I checked), it's pretty hard to properly equip every single one of them. That said, I'd still insist that the Russians are more preparedly equipped than the Ukrainians. Maybe if Kiev stopped spending money on spas for their soldiers, it could more properly equip them. 

It's not like the SMO is going perfectly. Even Putin and Surovikin have admitted shortcomings. But it's still achieving the goals which Russia stipulated at the start of the operation. 

[علوي]

Putin announces Christmas truce

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President Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian military to impose a cessation in hostilities in Ukraine. Hours earlier, Primate of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, had called on both sides of the conflict to cease hostilities in the run-up to, and during, the Orthodox Christmas holiday.

According to the Kremlin, the truce is to last from noon local time on Friday January 6 until midnight on Saturday January 7.
...
Earlier on Thursday, Putin discussed the prospect of peace negotiations with Ukraine in a call with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Russian president reiterated that Moscow was “open to serious dialogue” with Kiev if the latter recognized the “new territorial realities.”

https://www.rt.com/russia/569439-russia-putin-truce-christmas/

Ukraine rejects Putin call for Christmas truce

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...Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhailo Podolyak tweeted back that Russia "must leave the occupied territories - only then will it have a 'temporary truce'. Keep hypocrisy to yourself."

He said that, unlike Russia, Ukraine was not attacking foreign territory or killing civilians, only destroying "members of the occupation army on its territory".

https://iranpress.com/content/71523/ukraine-rejects-putin-call-for-christmas-truce

These guys just don't understand. They're not taking this whole thing seriously. Mate, when your country is 1/3 occupied by the greatest military superpower in the world, you're not gonna get everything that you want. Zelenskiy is asking for not only the 4 new regions of Russia, but also "occupied" Crimea! The guy wants more territory than he started with! 

[علوي]

Putin Christmas truce. Latvia arrests Sputnik Editor-in-chief. Professor Hillary. CNN Kinzinger. U/1 (ALEX CHRISTOFOROU - 29 MINUTES)

 

 

[علوي]

Journalist Brian Berletic reports from Donyetsk:

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Two Donetsk houses badly damaged (pretty well destroyed) by Ukranian shelling yesterday in the Kuibyshevsky district. Two women injured in the shelling.

The whole area is littered with houses damaged or destroyed by Ukraine's shelling.

Older man there who I interviewed this morning asks me if I'll be honest, evidently aware of western media lies on the Donbass.

'It's not just yesterday, it's shelling here every day. It's thanks to Christmas today that God must be hearing us, so far this morning there has been no shelling.'

Russian Investigative Committee inspectors determined the shell was a 155 mm shell, which NATO, not Russia, uses.

Video to follow, tomorrow.

https://t.me/brianlovethailand/1272

[علوي]

Donetsk shelled in first minute of Christmas truce – authorities

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Ukraine’s forces disregarded the Christmas ceasefire announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin less than a minute after it took effect, by shelling a residential area in the city of Donetsk, according to the local authorities. The truce is supposed to last from noon on January 6 until midnight on January 7.

https://www.rt.com/russia/569474-donetsk-shelled-christmas-truce/

[علوي]

UN Security Council to hold session on Ukraine on Jan. 13

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The UN Security Council will hold a meeting devoted to Ukraine on January 13, Russia's TASS news agency reported on Saturday. 

The meeting is scheduled for 2000 GMT on January 13, according to the report. 

https://newsaf.cgtn.com/news/2023-01-08/UN-Security-Council-to-hold-session-on-Ukraine-on-Jan-13-1gprNptG21q/index.html

[علوي]

Russia Sends 600 Nazis to Hell

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Russia’s armed forces have killed more than 600 Ukrainian servicemen in a massive rocket strike on temporary bases in Kramatorsk, Defense Ministry Spokesman Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov said on Sunday.

https://tass.com/russia/1559523

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Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military has managed to uncover and confirm the location of Ukrainian troops in Kramatorsk in the DPR, the statement read. This data revealed that dormitory No.28 in the city was hosting more than 700 Kiev soldiers, with 600 more staying in dormitory No.47.

“As a result of a massive missile attack on these temporary housing areas of the Ukrainian military’s units, more than 600 Ukrainian servicemen were killed,” the ministry said.

https://www.rt.com/russia/569559-kramatorsk-retaliation-operation-makeyevka/

[علوي]

Soledar Liberated by Wagner PMC

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MOSCOW, January 11. /TASS/. The city of Soledar, the scene of intense fighting in the past few days, has been taken under control by units of Russia’s Wagner private military company, the company’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was quoted as saying by his press service on Tuesday night.

"Units of the Wagner private military company have taken the entire territory of Soledar under their control. The city center has been surrounded, and urban warfare is under way. The number of captives will be announced tomorrow," Prigozhin was quoted as saying on his company’s Telegram channel.

https://tass.com/politics/1560519

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“There is a cauldron in the center of town, where urban fighting is taking place,” Prigozhin said in a statement released to the media.

https://www.rt.com/russia/569673-wagner-soledar-control-donbass/

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Prigozhin added that the remaining Ukrainian soldiers will have two options, "either surrender or extermination."  

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/wagner-claims-control-over-soledar-calls-kiev-forces-to-surr

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He added that  “no other units” apart from Wagner personnel had taken part in the storming of Soledar.
...
Russian control over the town creates problems for Kiev’s forces in the embattled bastion of Artyomovsk, which Ukraine has renamed Bakhmut.

https://www.rt.com/russia/569673-wagner-soledar-control-donbass/

Edited January 11 by علوي

[علوي]

Raisi - Putin Phone Call

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Raisi and Vladimir Putin discussed Ukraine and other issues on the phone.

The Iranian president reiterated his country’s readiness to help bring an end to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and restore peace there.

He also referred to the crises in Syria, as well as the Caucasus region, saying that regional issues should be resolved through cooperation.
...
The Russian president, on his part, welcomed Iran’s initiative to restore peace in Ukraine.

The two presidents also stressed the need to resolve Syria’s crisis through the Astana peace process that was initiated by Russia, Iran and Turkey in 2017.

https://en.irna.ir/news/84996301/President-Raisi-reiterates-Iran-s-readiness-to-help-end-Ukraine