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In the Name of God بسم الله

Turkey/Qatar replacing KSA/UAE as NATO/Israel’s allies?

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There are numerous indications that the U.S. and Israel are recalibrating their reliance on the KSA/UAE and instead shifting their support to Turkey/Qatar in the MENA and elsewhere. Saudi/Emirati proxy Egypt, which previously opposed Turkish influence in Libya, is now willing to concede Turkish involvement there, while also improving ties with Ankara. U.S. President Biden has just designated Turkey’s financial patron Qatar as a major non-NATO ally. At the same time, the Biden administration is now opposing the Saudi- and Emirati-backed EastMed pipeline, which would have involved Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus as well as Israel, in favour of shipping Israeli gas to Europe via Turkey, complementing Qatar’s plans to serve as an alternative source of energy in Europe should Russia be excluded by the West. Previously Israel had spoken out in favour of Turkey’s playing a role in transporting Israeli gas to Europe, to the detriment of Egypt and its plans to invest in the EastMed pipeline. Reportedly, Israel viewed the EastMed pipeline as too expensive and giving undue weight to nationalist forces in Egypt, Greece, and the GCC. Turkey and Qatar also working with the U.S. and its clients to support the Taliban in Afghanistan by helping run the main airport in Kabul.

I think that Iran is currently focussing too much on the KSA/UAE and has instead neglected the potentially greater threat posed by Turkey and Qatar on behalf of NATO and Israel.

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