COVlD-19 Big Picture

[Haji 2003 9,505]

Game changer

 

[Haji 2003 9,505]

[hasanhh 10,152]

2000 Human Guinea Pigs

https://www.dw.com/en/german-scientists-run-concert-test-to-see-how-coronavirus-spreads/a-54660970

 

[Haji 2003 9,505]

[hasanhh 10,152]

Politicization of Vaccines

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3098610/china-promises-its-mekong-neighbours-priority-access

 

[hasanhh 10,152]

l cannot find the right thread for this post, but in addition to lockdowns, here is other consequential news.

 

DeutsceWelle:  Lufthanza will not only lay-off another 5,000 employees, but will also junk 150 planes.

[hasanhh 10,152]

l found this article linked to John Hopkins Medical website.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/09/15/scientists-want-predict-covid-19s-long-term-trajectory-heres-why-they-cant/

The methodologies fail as they do with flu and Ebola.

The White House has a wide range of estimates presented.

Why Trump was optimistic.

Why Trump thought the virus would pass in June/Summer.

Projections more than 4 weeks out are "useless."

[hasanhh 10,152]

On 9/22/2020 at 2:45 AM, hasanhh said:

l cannot find the right thread for this post, but in addition to lockdowns, here is other consequential news.

 

DeutsceWelle:  Lufthanza will not only lay-off another 5,000 employees, but will also junk 150 planes.

Disney announced the 29th that they are laying-off 28k mployees.

Today, the 30th, in her address to the Parliament, Chancellor Merkel said to prepare for a 2nd Wave likely more serious than the first.

[hasanhh 10,152]

WARNING: this falls into the scary category:

Preface: lf you remember offhand, Sir Anthony Eden had a "kidney infection" which affected his 'behavior' during the Suez Crisis. For a specific analysis, see:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1356158/ 

More Generally, there is the ergot model associated with the French Revolution. Quo video.

Post Specific:  This 6 minute video from DeutscheWelle starts out a little slow, but then proceeds into C-l9 complications on the brain and kidneys.

https://www.dw.com/en/the-long-term-health-effects-of-coronavirus/av-55130911

For the complete program on C-l9, go to:  https://www.dw.com/en/tv/in-good-shape/s-11938 

[Cherub786 432]

I’m an “anti-masker” I deliberately do not wear a mask in public, including on public transportation though it is mandatory, and in stores. Although I am politely told to wear a mask I always shake my head and decline. I’ve even been thrown out of my local mosque for refusing to wear a mask (and for refusing to participate in the 6 feet apart congregational prayers). A few weeks ago, the management of the mosque called the police on me and they forcefully evicted me from the mosque!

Covid is only a danger for older people with preexisting conditions like diabetes and obesity. In virtually all cases it has only sped up the death of people who were going to die anyways. But because the baby boomers are so entrenched in the corridors of power, the young are being asked to sacrifice their economic future just to delay death of some old people. If it was necessary to enforce these lockdowns that have ravaged the economy, caused massive unemployment and worst of all, disrupted regular religious activity and houses of worship, why wasn’t it enforced in such a way that elderly people should be restricted to their homes and everyone else can carry on with business as usual?

Some 200 thousand mostly old people have died in America. Big deal. I say let them die. What’s worse, some old people dying a little before their time or destroying the economy, laying off millions of people, forcing them into food insecurity, and worst of all, disrupting regular religious services?

Heshy Tischler is a promising local political leader in New York City who has the guts and the charisma to go after the establishment politicians who enforced these appalling lockdowns on us:

 

All I can say is we need a lot more politicians like him on a local level who will actually do something worthwhile on city councils across North America. Currently, he is leading peaceful civil disobedience protests in certain boroughs of New York City where the government is preventing religious activity, and even preventing young children and families from gathering in parks and playgrounds. The governments are not just heavily fining people for not wearing masks, they are actually arresting people. It’s getting completely ridiculous in places like Ontario and New York. Doug Ford and Andrew Cuomo, premier and governor of both those places respectively, are totally unfit to govern.

 

I see Orthodox Jews and even some Christians resisting these government mandates lockdowns and restrictions on their religious liberty in the name of “public health safety”, but where are the Muslims? Why are our Mosques enforcing the ridiculous social distancing during congregational Salah?

According to our Sunni Ulama such congregational Salah is not only invalid, it is a mockery of an act of worship, an act of sacrilege, which is why I refuse to partake in it.

The problem is our Mosques here in the West are managed by a class of people whose faces you would never expect to see in the Mosques back home in the Muslim world. Just because they are highly educated and are financially well off means they can control our Mosques? They don’t have any religious motivation for doing so either, they are simply on a power trip.

Likewise, it is not allowed to cover your face in Salah. Even a woman cannot cover her face in Salah, although women are either strongly encouraged or obligated to cover their face otherwise for modesty and hijab.

More and more Americans are beginning to stand up against this Covid fear-mongering. I attribute this to the long American tradition of freedom and liberty. Europe is different because they don’t have such a strong tradition, their people are more politically docile, in fact, their people are more susceptible to authoritarianism and fascism as recent history of the 20^th century has shown.

[El Cid 964]

7 minutes ago, Cherub786 said:

I’m an “anti-masker” I deliberately do not wear a mask in public, including on public transportation though it is mandatory, and in stores. Although I am politely told to wear a mask I always shake my head and decline. I’ve even been thrown out of my local mosque for refusing to wear a mask (and for refusing to participate in the 6 feet apart congregational prayers). A few weeks ago, the management of the mosque called the police on me and they forcefully evicted me from the mosque!

Covid is only a danger for older people with preexisting conditions like diabetes and obesity. In virtually all cases it has only sped up the death of people who were going to die anyways. But because the baby boomers are so entrenched in the corridors of power, the young are being asked to sacrifice their economic future just to delay death of some old people. If it was necessary to enforce these lockdowns that have ravaged the economy, caused massive unemployment and worst of all, disrupted regular religious activity and houses of worship, why wasn’t it enforced in such a way that elderly people should be restricted to their homes and everyone else can carry on with business as usual?

Some 200 thousand mostly old people have died in America. Big deal. I say let them die. What’s worse, some old people dying a little before their time or destroying the economy, laying off millions of people, forcing them into food insecurity, and worst of all, disrupting regular religious services?

Heshy Tischler is a promising local political leader in New York City who has the guts and the charisma to go after the establishment politicians who enforced these appalling lockdowns on us:

 

All I can say is we need a lot more politicians like him on a local level who will actually do something worthwhile on city councils across North America. Currently, he is leading peaceful civil disobedience protests in certain boroughs of New York City where the government is preventing religious activity, and even preventing young children and families from gathering in parks and playgrounds. The governments are not just heavily fining people for not wearing masks, they are actually arresting people. It’s getting completely ridiculous in places like Ontario and New York. Doug Ford and Andrew Cuomo, premier and governor of both those places respectively, are totally unfit to govern.

 

I see Orthodox Jews and even some Christians resisting these government mandates lockdowns and restrictions on their religious liberty in the name of “public health safety”, but where are the Muslims? Why are our Mosques enforcing the ridiculous social distancing during congregational Salah?

According to our Sunni Ulama such congregational Salah is not only invalid, it is a mockery of an act of worship, an act of sacrilege, which is why I refuse to partake in it.

The problem is our Mosques here in the West are managed by a class of people whose faces you would never expect to see in the Mosques back home in the Muslim world. Just because they are highly educated and are financially well off means they can control our Mosques? They don’t have any religious motivation for doing so either, they are simply on a power trip.

Likewise, it is not allowed to cover your face in Salah. Even a woman cannot cover her face in Salah, although women are either strongly encouraged or obligated to cover their face otherwise for modesty and hijab.

More and more Americans are beginning to stand up against this Covid fear-mongering. I attribute this to the long American tradition of freedom and liberty. Europe is different because they don’t have such a strong tradition, their people are more politically docile, in fact, their people are more susceptible to authoritarianism and fascism as recent history of the 20^th century has shown.

I don't know man. For me, it was the opposite case. The first death that personally affected me was of my 25 year old friend who had no pre-existing medical conditions. She got positive for corona and then passed away. Many young people have died :/ I think it's disrespectful to the memory of the Fallen to think of it as something so light. 

[hasanhh 10,152]

Finance   C-19 and Technology with Tax Cuts = lnflation

With more money freed from taxes, it needs a place to "invest".

https://www.thenational.ae/business/comment/how-the-global-pandemic-will-speed-up-the-digitalisation-of-financial-services-1.1073750 

tokens 

OPINE: A lot like Bitcoin

[Muhammed Ali 3,852]

18 hours ago, Cherub786 said:

worst of all, disrupted regular religious activity and houses of worship

Is this your type of Islam? You put the communal religious activities above employment and other things that were restricted by the lockdowns? Is the starvation of unemployed people less important to you than going to the mosque? 

It's not all about older people: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/magazine/covid-myocarditis-heart-disease.html

Quote

Another study, published this month in the same journal, looked at 26 Ohio State athletes who experienced Covid-19 with mild or no symptoms and detected evidence of possible myocarditis in five of them and lesser abnormalities in nine more.

 

Quote

Some 200 thousand mostly old people have died in America. Big deal. I say let them die.

Is this how you would speak about your own parents?

[Cherub786 432]

2 hours ago, Muhammed Ali said:

Is this your type of Islam? You put the communal religious activities above employment and other things that were restricted by the lockdowns? Is the starvation of unemployed people less important to you than going to the mosque? 

I don’t understand, how is me going to the Mosque resulting in starvation of unemployed people or affecting employment? Like I said, blame the government for unemployment and food insecurity. They implemented these lockdowns and restrictions that hit the common man the worst. The rich and powerful are still rich and powerful. It was all done in the name of old people with preexisting conditions. For their sake people lost their jobs in the millions, and people are unsure if they will have food on the table for themselves and their children tonight. Blame the government, blame the government, blame the government, blame China, blame WHO, blame Xi, blame that hideous baboon Tedros.

But to answer your question, yes, communal religious activities are far more important than employment and other things that were restricted by the lockdowns.

2 hours ago, Muhammed Ali said:

Is this how you would speak about your own parents?

Of course not. No one should speak like that about their own parents.

[justAnothermuslim 75]

On average 160,000 people die of Chronic Respiratory illnesses in the US annually. Between 30-60,000 die of the flu/flu related illnesses. This is before Covid. It will be interesting to see the figures on this once all the data is collected and published for 2020. I'm guessing these numbers will be significantly lower meaning a huge percentage of Covid deaths reported are actually fraudulant.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/504167-facebook-fact-checkers-censorship/

 

[hasanhh 10,152]

Audio Reporting, 6 minutes

https://www.dw.com/en/europe-is-the-worlds-worst-coronavirus-hot-spot/av-55400181

 

[Abdul-Hadi 1,293]

On 10/10/2020 at 6:20 PM, Cherub786 said:

But to answer your question, yes, communal religious activities are far more important than employment and other things that were restricted by the lockdowns.

Gonna have to disagree with this one, sorry. People being gainfully employed and being able to eat and provide for their families is much more important than communal religious activities. You don't need to go to a mosque to practice Islam, especially when you can know that other Muslims are praying at the same time as you every day in their own homes & you can watch Khutbah online on Fridays.

I don't go to a mosque because there is no Shia mosque anywhere near me & I don't feel like dealing with the drama of being criticized for how I pray, the fact that I don't wear a thobe, etc. COVID is even more of a reason why I don't go.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Abdul-Hadi

[hasanhh 10,152]

A 26 Oct 20 article from Time magazine trying to illustrate and explain the third wave of covid-l9.  6 minuute read

https://time.com/5903590/coronavirus-covid-19-third-wave/

At a hospital, mandatory masking cut the C-l9 infection rate by half.

5 charts

 

[hasanhh 10,152]

SUBJ:  Zoonosis    --known animal infections

l was watching a news report on this family in Minnesota that has been devastated by C-l9 to include an infected cat. Checking on animal infections l found this from USDA APHIS:

https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/sa_one_health/sars-cov-2-animals-us 

A quick to read chart.

[hasanhh 10,152]

Cognitive Deficit --- in C-l9 Recoveries

84k+ people took the Great British lntelligence Test

Cognitive decline is "multi-system".

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20215863v1 

[justAnothermuslim 75]

False positive tests

416 Replies

28th September 2020

(This post contains an erratum regarding a technical issue, at the end)

There has been a lot of noise about false positive COVID19 tests in the news. So, I thought I would try to explain what it all means. Or do my best anyway.

There are two measures in most medical screening tests which are usually defined as the ‘sensitivity’ and the ‘specificity’ of a test. In my opinion, these two words are far too close together in sound, so they are very easy to mix up in your brain.

I find it easier to think of the accuracy of test results in this way.

• False negatives

• False positives

A false negative is a result which informs someone that they do not have a disease, when in fact they do.

A false positive is a result which informs someone they do have a disease, when they don’t.

Ideally a test should never give a false negative (100% sensitivity) nor give a false positive (100% specificity). There is no known test that does this. In general, there is a trade-off going on between these two measures.

By which I mean, if you aim for 100% sensitivity, the specificity often falls away – and vice-versa

For example, in cancer screening the primary objective is you must never miss a case. So, the sensitivity rate is set very high. By definition the rate of false negatives is very low.

A shadow on the breast, a few strange cells here, a few strange cells there – ‘that might be cancer, better to be safe than sorry. Don’t take the risk’. Positive cancer test.

To put this another way. The fear of missing any cases of cancer results in the number of false positives being high. This raises the question with COVID19. Is it better to under diagnose – many false negatives. Or over diagnose – many false positives?

This issue does not seem to have been discussed. If you want to prevent spread of COVID19, you would presumably want very few false negatives in these swab tests. Otherwise people will be told they don’t have the disease – when they do – and happily go off spreading it around. Equally, you would be relaxed about false positives. People would isolate when they don’t need to, but not a great health issue.

Weirdly, however, this does not seem to be the case.

COVID19 false negatives

With COVID19, there are a lot of false negatives, with some studies quoting figures as high as 50%. That is, half of those told they are not infected with COVID19, are probably infected¹. A systematic review got figures between 2% and 29%. So, we could call that an average of 16%?

As you can see, these figures are clearly all over the place. This is in major part because there is no ‘gold-standard’ COVID19 test. By which I mean that we do not have a ‘test of tests.’ Namely, the expensive and time-consuming test by which we absolutely can know if someone truly is infected. The test against which your ‘field tests’ can be calibrated/verified.

Indeed, currently, there is no current agreement as to what ‘infected’ means with COVID19. Does it mean finding viral particles in the nose, sputum, or throat – or all three? Does it mean finding viral particles in these places, and also isolating it in the bloodstream, or lungs? Does it mean finding evidence of antibodies specific to COVID19 two to three weeks following ‘infection?’ Or what? It would be nice to know.

COVID19 false positives

More troubling, right now, than the very poor sensitivity of COVID19 testing (high number of false negatives) is the knotty question of how many false positive tests there are? This is important, because we are told that cases are rising and rising as we suffer a ‘second wave’ of COVID19.

However, if we have a high rate of false positives, then the rise in ‘cases’ could be driven by a rise in testing – and nothing else. And you don’t need a high percentage of false positive tests to do this. If the false positive rate is as little as just one per cent (1%) this means the majority of people told they are positive for COVID19, do not have COVID19!

I know that most people find this a difficult one. It goes like this.

First, you have to know the estimated prevalence of the disease in the community. That is, the total number currently infected. Last time I looked it was one in nine hundred. For the sake of this calculation I shall call it one in a thousand. [Or, to put it another way, sixty-seven thousand people in the UK (population 67 million) are currently infected with COVID19].

Using this one in a thousand figure. This means, if you randomly tested ten thousand people, you would expect to find ten COVID19 cases [forgetting the false negatives for now].

On the other side of the coin. If the false positive rate is one per cent, you would have an additional one hundred false positives cases.

10,000 x.01(1%) = 100

Putting this another way. With a prevalence of one in a thousand, and a false positive rate of one per-cent you would have ten true COVID19 positive cases, and ninety false positives. Ergo, the vast majority of people told that they have COVID19, do not. Is this actually happening?

There is heated debate. As in much heat and little light.

.

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/

 

[hasanhh 10,152]

Pecuniary Politics -or- Political Pestilent ?

https://www.dw.com/en/poland-and-hungary-veto-eu-budget-plan/a-55618272

Will expulsions from the European People's Party (EPP) follow?

[hasanhh 10,152]

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/more-1-million-children-u-s-have-had-covid-19-n1247913 

According to worldometers, the US has 11.5m cases, had 254k deaths and did 170m tests.

[hasanhh 10,152]

l can't find an article, but DeutscheWelle has a headline that Germany will spend 40% of its 2019 GDP to stimulate its economy.

This, l guess, is part of a $10 Trillion suggested plan for Europe.

[hasanhh 10,152]

To summarize a BBC report, our most threatening epidemiological enemy is our family.

Most positive tests subjects cannot identify where they were infected.

[hasanhh 10,152]

The "common cold" is a coronavirus, and we all get colds from time to time.

This yet-to-be-peer-reviewed study tentatively concludes that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is good for about six months.

With constant mutation, this virus, lMH0, will be endemic throughout the World.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/elanagross/2020/11/20/coronavirus-immunity-may-last-for-at-least-six-months-oxford-study-finds/

[hasanhh 10,152]

SUD ... and C-l9

Drug use and C-l9 susceptibility. Sept2020

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/substance-use-disorders-linked-covid-19-susceptibility

1 minute read.

"Race" note in paragraph 7.

[justAnothermuslim 75]

Not really a breaking news, but i found this a bit perplexing...don't know what to make out of it.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/507937-covid-pcr-test-fail/

In the eyes of this court, then, a positive test does not correspond to a Covid case. The two most important reasons for this, said the judges, are that, “the test’s reliability depends on the number of cycles used’’ and that “the test’s reliability depends on the viral load present.’’ In other words, there are simply too many unknowns surrounding PCR testing.

[hasanhh 10,152]

4 hours ago, justAnothermuslim said:

but i found this a bit perplexing...don't know what to make out of it

Low reliability tests are used to judge people.

Not much different than when French police beat up that man in his own place of business which triggered these new "can't record the police" videos.

[hasanhh 10,152]

C-l9 and chronic conditions. ~13minutes

https://www.dw.com/en/overcoming-covid-19-yet-a-long-way-from-healthy/av-55759023

-more info than the advertisement indicates

[justAnothermuslim 75]

On 11/29/2020 at 8:45 AM, hasanhh said:

Low reliability tests are used to judge people.

 

What I’ve read so far about it surely agrees with your observation. In fact, I gather it’s originally meant for manufacturing purposes and not as a diagnostic tool. Maybe if the result of the test comes together with cycle threshold (CT) stated, that would lend some credibility to it. What’s perplexing – every country fighting covid-19 is using it (as a gold standard).

On 11/29/2020 at 8:45 AM, hasanhh said:

Not much different than when French police beat up that man in his own place of business which triggered these new "can't record the police" videos.

Yeah. The only exception is that apparently Macron didn’t approve the police’s action.

[hasanhh 10,152]

Economy and demographics:

ls C-l9 "killing" NYC ?  

OPINE: l guesstimate this didn't occur only last Spring. lt's continuing.

https://whchronicle.com/is-covid-19-killing-new-york-americas-iconic-city/

~1 minute read.

Question: what about other major cities? 

[Allah Seeker 1,373]

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2599911/

 

https://brandnewtube.com/watch/the-mask-wearing-collaborators-are-going-to-kill-us-all_LpclkbUEr7hR3d2.html

[justAnothermuslim 75]

Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, this system will suspend data collection for the 2020-21 influenza season. Data from previous seasons are available on FluView Interactive.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm

 

[Guest Curious]

I am all for vaccines but not so much being a guinea pig.