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In the Name of God بسم الله

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See the chat below. It's literally fallen off a cliff.

Some people saying that this will hasten the end of despotic regimes e.g. Saudi, Iran, and Russia.

I'm not sure that they have thought this through.

Middle Eastern states keep the western arms industry going with their purchases. Low oil prices will end that subsidy.

Screenshot 2020-03-30 at 13.58.53.png

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1 hour ago, Haji 2003 said:

See the chat below. It's literally fallen off a cliff.

Some people saying that this will hasten the end of despotic regimes e.g. Saudi, Iran, and Russia.

I'm not sure that they have thought this through.

Middle Eastern states keep the western arms industry going with their purchases. Low oil prices will end that subsidy.

I'm not sure why it would hasten the end of anything. Prices will go back up, they always do.

In the mean time, I am basking in the cheaper costs.

Edited by Hameedeh
Removed image to shorten the quote. Image is available in the OP.

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A few years ago, probably a decade, l read where the KSA target price was $40pb.

Anyone glanced at the stock market/Wall Street this morning? A probable depression is on the horizon and those nuts are throwing money around again --buying stuff on whims.

Example: Think of all the stuff that Johnson and Johnson produces and yet their stock jumped 6-7% this morning on a single gov't contract (less than half a $1Billion which is ~ 5 mills of last years gross revenue.)

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Experts believe that even if the pandemic is overcome within half a year, the global economy cannot avoid a historically difficult time. In fact, it will likely take more than half a year to solve the problem. Market confidence is therefore seriously undermined. As competition for market share will be a defining feature of oil politics, it is expected that crude will remain below $40 per barrel.

Of course, the falling of oil prices will bring negative economic implications for oil producers in the Gulf and the Middle East in general. Oil producers in the Gulf, despite their efforts to diversify their economies in the past decades, are still dependent on oil production for financial budgets at a government level, and in some countries the dependence can be as high as 70%. The falling of oil prices will make them lose half of their revenues from oil, and it will tighten their budgets that have already been tight in the past decade due to the financial crisis of 2008.

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2020-04/02/content_75891548.htm

 

Edited by Muslim2010

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On 4/6/2020 at 7:39 AM, hasanhh said:

lraq :  Deal of the Century

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-Prepares-To-Close-Oil-Deal-Of-A-Lifetime-In-Iraq.html

--and also, for a period of time, a 10% subsidy

--Majnoon 0ilfield 

One thing that I have noticed from time to time, is that while China doesn't send soldiers to Iraq to stabilize dangerous environments, it hasn't been shy about sending contractors and making deals to acquire resources of the Middle East. I recall mineral extraction contractors in Afghanistan as well.

https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/10577-Project-to-exploit-Afghanistan-s-giant-copper-deposit-languishes

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2 hours ago, iCenozoic said:

is that while China doesn't send soldiers to Iraq to stabilize

Correction: See my post, 3rd one down, page 11, https://www.shiachat.com/forum/topic/235064127-Iraq-protests-2019-2020/ date 05Nov2019

Added: Where the troops were first deployed:  https://jcpa.org/chinese-troops-arrive-Syria-fight-uyghur-rebels/ 

Edited by hasanhh

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29 minutes ago, hasanhh said:

Correction: See my post, 3rd one down, page 11, https://www.shiachat.com/forum/topic/235064127-Iraq-protests-2019-2020/ date 05Nov2019

Added: Where the troops were first deployed:  https://jcpa.org/chinese-troops-arrive-Syria-fight-uyghur-rebels/ 

In general, they're somewhat absent. They aren't running based or conducting airstrikes. But yes, we have heard reports, few and far between.

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2 hours ago, hasanhh said:

Those are 1980s' prices.

Maybe, but in the 90s when I was first licensed, prices were less than $1 per gallon. 

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3 hours ago, notme said:

Maybe, but in the 90s when I was first licensed, prices were less than $1 per gallon. 

You mean 1970s and early 80s, correct?

https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-915-march-7-2016-average-historical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2015 

Edited by hasanhh

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1 hour ago, hasanhh said:

No. I'm talking about the early to mid 90s in southwestern Virginia. I remember gas prices as low as 90 cents per gallon being fairly common for a few years. I can easily remember my shock and horror when prices exceeded $1.50 per gallon during and after Hurricane Katrina. 

I didn't drive in the 70s or 80s, and I didn't buy gas, so I had no reason to pay attention to prices. 

Obviously, due to transport costs and state taxes, price at the pump varies by location. Maybe I lived in a cheaper region. I do know I avoided filling my tank in West Virginia (my home state) as much as possible because it was significantly more expensive there. Now the difference is negligible. 

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1 hour ago, hasanhh said:

Those prices are not raw data. They are adjusted to "current dollars" and "2015 dollars". 

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3 hours ago, notme said:

Those prices are not raw data. They are adjusted to "current dollars" and "2015 dollars". 

Those are "then current dollars" as a 5 cent candy bar would be listed as a 5 cent candy bar.

4 hours ago, notme said:

I can easily remember my shock and horror when prices

l remember, after being away in Asia for a long while, actually feeling it in the throat when l filled my tank and the cost was over $40.  :fever:

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On 3/30/2020 at 2:46 PM, iCenozoic said:

Prices will go back up, they always do.

But in the meantime ... actually this does not mean that Chevron pay you to drive, but still it's kinda really weird.

 

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13 minutes ago, Haji 2003 said:

But in the meantime ... actually this does not mean that Chevron pay you to drive, but still it's kinda really weird.

 

I wonder if this might remind society that there are alternatives to oil and gas that we've for far too long, not cared to invest in. 

 

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15 minutes ago, iCenozoic said:

I wonder if this might remind society that there are alternatives to oil and gas that we've for far too long, not cared to invest in. 

 

I hope so. 

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24 minutes ago, iCenozoic said:

I wonder if this might remind society that there are alternatives to oil and gas that we've for far too long, not cared to invest in. 

 

It does not get better than this for environmental groups to push their agenda. Usually you'd have entire industries like airlines that would put up a huge fight, but now they're likely to be filing for state aid and/or bankruptcy. Why not give the aid to less polluting industries.

I posted yesterday a proposal from a Dutch group to rethink what we do and there's a video from Cuomo today who's urging people to re-imagine what the future could be. He points out to people who had not thought of teleworking before, but would now do more of it etc.

This could be a real game changer.

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3 hours ago, notme said:

What happens when storage capacity runs out?

I'm sure there are plenty of un-lined basins ready to be filled at our later expense.

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WTI fell 300+% because the WTI Futures expire 21April  https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Todays-300-Oil-Price-Crash-Isnt-As-Bad-As-It-Looks.html 

As of 2330hrsEDT,20April2020

WTI $1.86  <--- Up $37-$41

Brent 25.26

OPEC Basket 18.16

Urals 24.55

Louisiana Light 20.56

Mexican Basket 14.35

For some good info, see oilprice.com

 

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The WTI figure is what applies to the American shale drillers and reflects the lack of storage and transportation costs and anyway their drilling costs are way above Saudi etc. so they're likely going bust if this persists with knock on effects for employment and the people who financed them.

Whatever OPEC+ agreed does not seem to be working out for Trump. What he has to say this afternoon will be interesting.

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