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In the Name of God بسم الله
Haji 2003

Libya Conflict [Analysis]

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I wanted to create this thread because I think what is happening in Libya is very important. This thread is for the big picture stuff and not day-to-day movements.

Why?

Because as with any analysis sometimes it is worth removing some variables in order to see what happens with the remaining ones. Libya is interesting because it has no Shia/Sunni dimension that some western commentators give as an excuse for conflict in the Middle East.

Even more usefully it has no Iranian dimension which some people give as the reason for ME conflict.

In summary Libya is a wonderful petri dish which has microbes from the West and the Gulf states, with some more thrown in recently from Russia and Turkey.

 

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To start off then, it's worth rewinding the clock. Let's go back to 2001, when a Libyan was found guilty of the bombing of Pan Am flight, this was one of many reasons for why the country was considered a pariah state. The context for this trial will become clearer at the end of the post.

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One of the two Libyans accused of the Lockerbie bombing has been jailed for life for murdering all 259 people on the plane and another 11 who died on the ground.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/1144893.stm

 

In March 2003 the Bush administration invades Iraq on the pretext of weapons of mass destruction. Hundreds of thousands of civilians are killed in response to 3,000 Americans on 9/11 and there is a lot of bad press around the WMD that were never found and the ensuing chaos in Iraq.

Some good news is needed, ideally within a WMD framework. and luckily for Blair and Bush Libya steps up to the plate, thereby providing a positive but unintended result from their massacres in Iraq.

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In a surprise revelation that was quickly followed by a similar announcement by President George Bush in Washington, Tony Blair said that nine months of intensive negotiations between Britain, the United States and Libya had resulted in Colonel Gaddafi's decision to abandon all efforts to develop any chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/libya-gives-up-nuclear-and-chemical-weapons-83350.html

 

More good news follows as Libya is welcomed into the community of 'civilised' nations. Note the reference below to Islamic extremism, Libya was never accused of that, but useful to throw it into the pot so as to link this back to 9/11.

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TRIPOLI - Britain's Tony Blair has sealed Libya's return to the international fold with an historic handshake for Muammar Gaddafi and an agreement to fight al Qaeda together.

After more than an hour of talks on Thursday, the prime minister said Libya's rejection of banned weapons and rapprochement with the West could act as a template for other Arab nations to turn their back on Islamic extremism.

"We are showing by our engagement with Libya today that it is possible for countries in the Arab world to work with the United States and the UK to defeat the common enemy of extremist fanatical terrorism driven by al Qaeda," he told reporters.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=3557093

 

Again Bush trying to spin this rapprochement back to Iraq.

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Ever since Monday's announcement that it was restoring full diplomatic relations with Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, the Bush Administration has suggested that the onetime international pariah's decision to dismantle his weapons of mass destruction program was primarily the result of the U.S. war on terror and its toppling of Saddam Hussein. But for a brief moment in December 2003, the actual capture of the Iraqi leader almost delayed the first public sign of the historic rapprochement between Libya and the West. 

http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1195852,00.html

 

Oh and the trial I started this post with was clearly a sham to provide a cover for Libyan rapprochement. Basically an innocent Libyan gets jailed, this is something that emerged over the fullness of time and we can return to it later.

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Yet America’s fury at the Lockerbie bomber’s triumphant repatriation does not change the fact that the Libyan leader is now a friend of the west. He has held meetings with Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and Silvio Berlusconi greeted him with a warm embrace when his plane touched down at Ciam­pino Airport in Rome in June. The former “mad dog of the Middle East”, as Ronald Reagan called him, is even due to address the UN General Assembly in New York on 23 September. He has stopped offering sanctuary to and sponsoring terrorists, and traded his WMD programme for the normalisation of relations with the west.

https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2009/08/gaddafi-Arab-libya-leader

 

So by 2009 Gaddafi is a 'friend of the west', he has done everything that was asked of him. In the next posts we'll see what happened next. Also worth noting at this stage that it is principally the US and other major western powers who are making all the running. Russia, Turkey and the UAE don't get as muchmention in the media.

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2 hours ago, Haji 2003 said:

Oh and the trial I started this post with was clearly a sham to provide a cover for Libyan rapprochement.

Correct. After the persecution presented its 'case', an editorial in the Wall Street Journal commented that if a prosecutor went to court with a case like that in America, he would be jailed for contempt.

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3 hours ago, Haji 2003 said:

More good news follows as Libya is welcomed into the community of 'civilised' nations. Note the reference below to Islamic extremism, Libya was never accused of that, but useful to throw it into the pot so as to link this back to 9/11.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=3557093

You mentioned Libya not being accused of supporting Islamic extremism but it looks like Libia had a history of doing just that:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Rome_and_Vienna_airport_attacks

"According to published reports, sources close to Abu Nidal said Libyan intelligence supplied the weapons and the ANO's head of the Intelligence Directorate's Committee for Special Missions, Dr.. Ghassan al-Ali, organized the attacks. Libya denied these charges as well, notwithstanding that it claimed they were "heroic operations carried out by the sons of the martyrs of Sabra and Shatila."[5]:245 Italian secret services blamed Syria and Iran.[7]"

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/14/world/4-guilty-in-fatal-1986-berlin-disco-bombing-linked-to-libya.html

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Berlin_discotheque_bombing

Libya was accused by the US government of sponsoring the bombing, and US President Ronald Reagan ordered retaliatory strikes on Tripoli and Benghazi in Libya ten days later. The operation was widely seen as an attempt to kill Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.[2] A 2001 trial in the US found that the bombing had been "planned by the Libyan Intelligence Service and the Libyan embassy".[1]

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TWA_Flight_840_bombing

"A group calling itself the Arab Revolutionary Cells claimed responsibility, saying it was committed in retaliation for American imperialism and clashes with Libya in the Gulf of Sidra the week before.[9]"

 

 

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It looks like Libya had a history of state sponsered terrorism. Though the Hezbollah airplane hijacking, though a terrible occurance, does look somewhat detached from Libya.

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Just now, iCenozoic said:

You mentioned Libya not being accused of supporting Islamic extremism but it looks like Libia had a history of doing just that:

I think you are conflating terrorism with Islamic terrorism.

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26 minutes ago, Haji 2003 said:

I think you are conflating terrorism with Islamic terrorism.

Ah touche

It's unfortunate that we live in times where the two are frequently blended together.

Edited by iCenozoic

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By 2010 it's apparent that the one person jailed for the blowing up of Pan Am 107 has cancer, so he is released early. He never goes back to Britain and lives out his life as a hero in Libya.

Quote

Scotland released Megrahi, a former Libyan intelligence agent, one year ago on what it said it were "compassionate" grounds, with a court there arguing the man had three months to live. Both the release of the mass murderer by Scotland and the hero's welcome he was given by Libya when he returned home were deeply offensive to the families of his victims.

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2010/0820/Britain-to-Libya-Don-t-celebrate-Lockerbie-bomber-s-release

 

He's expected to live for three months after his release, but things don't actually turn out that way, it does seem as if his early release is part of a 'deal':

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GLASGOW—Abdel Baset Al-Megrahi, the convicted Lockerbie bomber, argued a year ago that he should be freed because his doctors said he was on the brink of death with prostate cancer. "All the personnel are agreed that I have little chance of living into next year," he said last August in a meeting with the Scottish justice minister. 

In reality, no such consensus existed among Mr.... Megrahi's doctors. Mr.... Megrahi remains alive back in his homeland of Libya, freed after a Scottish doctor said a reasonable survival time for him was three months—a key threshold for "compassionate release."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704741904575409133365120408

 

The thaw in relations were also a potential economic boom for the American arms industry:

Quote

U.S. firms have good reason to rush to Libya. The oil-rich nation is sitting atop a giant cash surplus, with foreign reserves of nearly $140 billion. Muammar Gaddafi, who has ruled Libya for four decades and was once described by Ronald Reagan as "the mad dog of the Middle East," has said he intends to spend a lot of that money overhauling his country's creaking infrastructure, which was barely updated through more than two decades of international embargoes. (U.S. sanctions were lifted in 2004 following Libya's abandonment of its nuclear weapons program.)

http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1967079,00.html

 

And other Arab states looked likely to benefit as well:

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Libya, one of the UAE's oldest Arab investment partners, wants to build on a 40-year relationship, as was shown only last week when the two nations signed a US$11 billion (Dh40.4bn) joint investment deal.

https://www.thenational.ae/business/libya-cementing-ties-with-uae-1.558909

 

But the honeymoon was not to last.  In December 2010 we had protests in Tunisia:

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These reports come in the wake of the self-immolation of 26-year-old Mohammed Bouazizi in Tunisia in December.

The fact that his protest against local authorities helped set off a popular revolt has prompted commentators to ask whether the incidents in the other countries, although isolated, were inspired by the Tunisian event and whether the protesters were aiming to set off a similar chain of events in their nations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12206551

 

That was the start of the Arab Spring. And over the course of the next several weeks the sentiment spread across North Africa and seemed particularly potent in Libya:

Quote

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam, has warned that civil war could hit the country. His comments came in a lengthy TV address as anti-government protests spread to the capital Tripoli, and were brutally countered by security forces.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12520586

 

While other countries seem to get away with mass murder, the world community seemed to be particular worried by the human rights of Libyans.

Quote

“The Security Council has risen to the occasion and given notice to Gaddafi and his commanders that if they give, tolerate, or follow orders to fire on peaceful protesters, they may find themselves on trial in The Hague,” said Richard Dicker, director of the International Justice Program at Human Rights Watch.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2011/02/27/un-security-council-refers-libya-icc

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5 hours ago, Haji 2003 said:

By 2010 it's apparent that the one person jailed for the blowing up of Pan Am 107 has cancer, so he is released early. He never goes back to Britain and lives out his life as a hero in Libya.

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2010/0820/Britain-to-Libya-Don-t-celebrate-Lockerbie-bomber-s-release

 

He's expected to live for three months after his release, but things don't actually turn out that way, it does seem as if his early release is part of a 'deal':

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704741904575409133365120408

 

The thaw in relations were also a potential economic boom for the American arms industry:

http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1967079,00.html

 

And other Arab states looked likely to benefit as well:

https://www.thenational.ae/business/libya-cementing-ties-with-uae-1.558909

 

But the honeymoon was not to last.  In December 2010 we had protests in Tunisia:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12206551

 

That was the start of the Arab Spring. And over the course of the next several weeks the sentiment spread across North Africa and seemed particularly potent in Libya:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12520586

 

While other countries seem to get away with mass murder, the world community seemed to be particular worried by the human rights of Libyans.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2011/02/27/un-security-council-refers-libya-icc

Why were people protesting?

Even now, there is this division in Libya, where rebels want to push out the prime minister. But why?

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It’s not in our interest to get involved, we have no stakes in Libyan conflict. Neither eccentric Ghaddafi, nor Western sponsored Wahhabi militias were/are our allies. Whenever I think of Libya, I think of Musa al-Sadr and how his family doesn’t even have a grave to pray at. 

The explanation for situation in Libya is simple, the West and Arab countries wanted to get rid of Ghaddafi and they did, and whatever’s after him is the result. Russia and Iran prevented similar situation in Syria, a luxury that Ghaddafi didn’t experience. 

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1 hour ago, OrthodoxTruth said:

Russia and Iran prevented similar situation in Syria, a luxury that Ghaddafi didn’t experience. 

l know that at the time Russia was openly objecting to the anti-Qadaffi machinations because he owed them money from aircraft purchases.

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14 hours ago, hasanhh said:

l know that at the time Russia was openly objecting to the anti-Qadaffi machinations because he owed them money from aircraft purchases.

Russia softly opposed anti-Ghaddafi intervention from pragmatic reasons, as it was led by the US and NATO countries with the Gulf money. However, Russia did nothing to prevent it, unlike in Syria. 

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The BBC -

Russia and Turkey risk turning Libya into another Syria

By Jeremy Bowen
 
 
SubhanAllah, it's all Russia and Turkey's fault. Not like the west had anything to do with bombing Libya into 'democracy'..
 
 
 

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On 5/31/2020 at 10:13 PM, Moalfas said:

The BBC -

Russia and Turkey risk turning Libya into another Syria

By Jeremy Bowen
 
 
SubhanAllah, it's all Russia and Turkey's fault. Not like the west had anything to do with bombing Libya into 'democracy'..
 
 
 

"President Putin and President Erdogan could have agreed to end Gen Haftar's offensive against Tripoli so they can split the spoils between them, according to Wolfram Lacher, a German academic who has just published a book about the fragmentation of Libya.

In the Chatham House webinar he said: "We are talking about two foreign powers trying to carve up spheres of influence in Libya and their ambition may well be for this arrangement to be long term."

He doubted whether the other powers involved in Libya, and the Libyans themselves, would quietly accept the arrangement."

 

Sounds like just about every other middle eastern conflict in the past 50 years. Carve it up, grab the oil, ask questions later.

Edited by iCenozoic

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It has long been awkward to see Iran side with the U.S., Israel, Qatar, and Turkey in backing the GNA, which is infested with Wahhabi–Salafi and Ikhwani militants, even though Iran is only doing so diplomatically to isolate the Saudis and Emiratis. It is clear that the U.S. and Israel have controlled both sides of the conflict since day one. They continue to fabricate reports of Russian support for Haftar, even as the GNA gains territory and Putin sides with Erdoğan. As is usual, energy politics plays a significant role in the conflict, with the U.S. and Israel backing Greece and Cyprus vs. Turkey, Russia, and Italy, based simply on rival pipeline projects. Most of the Western media have favoured Turkey in this conflict, given Turkey’s crucial geopolitical importance.

In the long run the West sees Turkey as a more viable project than the K.S.A. and looks to forge a Sunni–Zionist alliance against Iran. After all, there is much overlap between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Wahhabi–Salafi groups, with the former serving to soften the image of the latter, by serving as diplomatic “cover,” so to speak—the “nice” face of Sunni Islamism. The Saudis, after all, first extended “official” protection to the MB following the failed coup against Egypt’s Nasser in 1954. The Saudis essentially forged an alliance between the Wahhabi clerical establishment and the broader Salafi movement of the MB, so long as both groups agreed only to deploy against the West’s secular-nationalist and socialist foes abroad, acting in concert with the West’s Cold-War agenda(s).

One often-neglected factor since the 1980s is the role of Saudi financial clout in sponsoring the rise of Erdoğan’s AKP–Gülen nexus to replace the secularist influence of the CHP (Atatürk’s mantle). In the interim the pan-Turkic MHP (Grey Wolves) allowed the MB-linked groups, including Wahhabi–Salafi elements, to exercise growing domestic influence within Turkey, while forging a fascist-Islamist alliance against secularist and leftist influences such as the CHP, PKK, and ASALA. The trend began in earnest with the CIA-sponsored Turkish coup d’état of 1980, which closely followed the rise of Western, Zionist, and Islamist proxies in the MENA, as secular-nationalist and socialist movements declined, owing to Western-sponsored repression.

Since coming to power in 2001, Erdoğan’s AKP–Gülen alliance, which is and has been solidly part of the MB, has largely acted in subordination to the Saudis, especially in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Qatar has followed Turkey’s lead in Libya and Syria as well. In all honesty, the MB in Turkey and Qatar is just a “politically correct” pit bull for the “bad-cop” Wahhabis in the K.S.A. and U.A.E., who take their orders from the Americans and the Zionists. Look at the “big picture” and you can see NATO’s (U.S. Central Command’s) chain of command in the MENA and South-Central Asia: U.S. → U.K., France, Germany → Israel (regional military “shepherd”) → Saudi-/Emirati-led GCC (regional financial centre) → Turkey, Qatar, Pakistan, et al. It’s one vast monolithic entity with bribery and coercion to spare.

At this point, it’s basically the West, Russia, and China—the Zionist-run West and Zionist-influenced East—against Iran. Libya is part of the globalised battle-space.

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Libya calls Egypt military threat ‘Declaration of war

Quote

AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): The Libyan army on Saturday denounced remarks of the Egyptian president, who said Sirte and Jufra in Libya are “a red line," calling it "a clear declaration of war and a blatant interference" in Libyan affairs.

"[Abdel] al-Sisi's statements that Sirte and Jufra are a red line, according to his description, is a blatant interference in our country's affairs, and we consider it a clear declaration of a war on Libya," Darah said.

"Our heroic forces are determined to complete the journey and liberate the entire region from terrorist militias [loyal to warlord Khalifa Haftar], their mercenaries as well as their supporters," he added.

In a TV speech in the Egyptian city of Matrouh near the Libyan borders on Saturday, al-Sisi alluded to the possibility of sending the country’s "external military missions if required," saying that "any direct intervention in Libya has already become legitimate internationally."

Al-Sisi told his army "be prepared to carry out any mission here within our borders, or if necessary outside our borders."

"Sirte and Jufra are a red line," he added.

Al-Sisi stressed that "any direct interference from Egypt [in Libya] has now acquired the international legitimacy, either with the right to self-defense, or at the request of the only legitimate elected authority in Libya, which is the House of Representatives [Tobruk]."

However, the UN recognizes the government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj.

https://en.abna24.com/news//libya-calls-egypt-military-threat-‘declaration-of-war_1048823.html

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Conflict of  Egypt & Ethiopia on Alnehsah النهضه Damسد

f3ccdd27d2000e3f9255a7e3e2c48800_727.jpg

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD or TaIHiGe) formerly known as the Millennium Dam and sometimes referred to as Hidase Dam 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Ethiopian_Renaissance_Dam

https://fa.abna24.com/news/کاریکاتور/کاریکاتور-مناقشه-مصر-و-اتیوپی-بر-سر-سد-النهضه_771534.html

Edited by Ashvazdanghe

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