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In the Name of God بسم الله
Abu Hadi

Trump & US / Iran tensions [ANALYSIS]

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I don't think there is anything to worry about. There's a lot of mind games going on, and so long as it's just drones being shot down, I don't think we need to start hiding in bunkers.

Iran are playing it cool and Trump is either blagging it, has some level headed advisors or maybe he did decide killing 150 people over a drone was excessive. 

Nobody wants a war, and while there are so many lives at stake, I don't think there will be one either.

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If we tried to invade Iran, the loses would be unacceptably high to the American people even if there was support for it, which there isn't.  Plus, it would bankrupt us and the horse we rode in on. The Trump Presidency would suffer and good luck in 2020. 

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35 minutes ago, Haji 2003 said:

Interesting observation. Don't know if it is correct

203025972_Screenshot2019-06-22at16_01_31.thumb.png.b2001780152b1cd5272bd6482e697666.png

My understanding is that both Iran and Oman extended their territorial waters out to 12 miles, which leaves very little of even the WATER in the Strait as " international", although ships pass freely. Not sure if the US accepts this or not, but Trump's  on shaky ground here...or water...or air.

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7 minutes ago, LeftCoastMom said:

If we tried to invade Iran, the loses would be unacceptably high to the American people even if there was support for it, which there isn't.  Plus, it would bankrupt us and the horse we rode in on. The Trump Presidency would suffer and good luck in 2020. 

I really hope Trump understands this. Such a conflict would spread to Israel as well, and can you imagine if nuclear bombs start going off in the Middle-East?

And even if Trump loses in 2020, we still have to worry about guys like Biden, who are bankrolled and influenced by Israel as well! 

Biden remarked a few days ago: "Two of America's vital interests in the Middle East are preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and securing a stable energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz,” --this is code speak for unconditional US support for Israel and aggression towards Iran

 

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1 hour ago, Abu Hadi said:

The US Government

Also the friends of this government

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1 hour ago, Abu Hadi said:

I heard reports from several news outlets yesterday that there is alot of fear and anxiety in Iran over a potential US attack and that one may be imminent. 

I am asking brothers and sisters in Iran to not be so concerned with this. I am not saying it is impossible but it is highly unlikely. Here is why

1. As many of you know, the government of the IRI is being extremely cautious at this point, and they should be, given the current situation. I don't see this changing anytime soon. This is the wise course at this time. The US needs at least some support from other nations (like United Kingdom, Germany, etc), at least its European allies in order to attack. This is not optional, this is a requirement. If there is no loss of American lives as a result of an Iranian action, they will have basically no way to go before Europeans and ask for support for an attack. As long as IRI doesn't do anything that causes loss of American lives, then there will be an extremely small chance of anything happening. 

2. What has happened in the last few days is political theater, not anything predictive of future events. Trump is starting his 2020 campaign and in order to get reelected.  Bolton and Pompeo are there, but I don't think they have much influence on his decisions. If they had their way, there would have been a war with Iran on day one. Because there hasn't been one, that means they are being sidelined. 

Truth.

My family is pretty convinced that a lot of him backing down so quickly were terse phone calls from Europe.

As for Pompous and Bolts-for-Brains, he could get rid of them whenever he likes. He needs them for his little political theater sock puppet show.

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51 minutes ago, Silas said:

I really hope Trump understands this. Such a conflict would spread to Israel as well, and can you imagine if nuclear bombs start going off in the Middle-East?

And even if Trump loses in 2020, we still have to worry about guys like Biden, who are bankrolled and influenced by Israel as well! 

Biden remarked a few days ago: "Two of America's vital interests in the Middle East are preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and securing a stable energy supply through the Strait of Hormuz,” --this is code speak for unconditional US support for Israel and aggression towards Iran

 

The Dems need to dump Biden. He isn't what we need.

image.jpeg

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1 hour ago, LeftCoastMom said:

Truth.

My family is pretty convinced that a lot of him backing down so quickly were terse phone calls from Europe.

It may be a political stunt just to play the role that Trump was not afraid from drone attacked in Persian gulf but actually he was . 

Edited by Muslim2010

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Guest Bakery

From the people I talked to who have family in Iran, there is anxiety for sure, but there is no fear. Instead it’s ‘bring it on’ attitude as a couple of them have told me.

In tactical terms, it was a small victory for Iran. RQ max speed is only 600mph, and is size of a mid size passenger plane. 

In strategic terms, Iran proved a few things to any would be aggressor.

One, the precision of their weapons, there were two planes flying side by side, both the sacrificial lambs to find a pretext of war, one a RQ4 drone, and another the P-8 spy plane, similar in size of your average 150 seater Boing 737, in this case housing the typical 30-40 crew which spies on the land assets. Iran shot precisely what it wanted to shoot at, sparing the human loss.

Two, the altitude of RQ, about 65,000ft or roughly 13 miles, way above the reach of your typical third world country’s Surface to Air Defense systems. Funny part is, the sales pitch for RQ was to fly it over Iran, unscathed.

Three, RQ and P-8, both are stealth, meaning not detectable by average third world country’s radars. Iran proved that their stealth capability didn’t mean anything, stealth yes, invincible no. Iran proved their indigenous radar capabilities. 

Four, Iran proved to the world, although nobody listened or saw the fine line, Iran is not after the blood of Americans or anybody. They just want to live and let live. Otherwise the accompanying P-8 was an easier target than the drone.

Five, Iran doesn’t care about anybody’s perceived exceptionalism or choosinistan-ism. Anybody and everybody would be a fair game to them irrespective of the number of edges in the stars on their planes’ wings, 5 or 6, as long as they dare to intrude in their air, water, and land space. 

Six, Iran knows the vulnerabilities of the host countries bases in the ME. UAE is a flashing high rise with oil wells. KSA has two major oil choke points which cover 85% of its oil flow. Qatar is already sitting on an imminent coup, only militarily protected by Turkey and economically by Iran. 

All of the above factors have suddenly made 150 Iranian enemy soldiers (a fair target in any war) into a very real ‘would be humanitarian catastrophe’ worth protecting by none other than the very POTUS Trump.

Had they been a 1.5 million of Iraqis, Afghanis, Libyans, or Syrians, a slight radar lock would have them roasted by now. 

All in all, might is always right. Trump should instead try taking Madagascar down. 

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53 minutes ago, shadow_of_light said:

I also think that this war is unlikely.

Currently they are economical problems and economical corruption which make people afraid, stressed and disappointed.

I know about the economic problems. Could you elaborate on the economic corruption part. I have never been to Iran, so I'm not familiar with how the economy works there. 

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10 hours ago, Abu Hadi said:

Could you elaborate on the economic corruption part. I have never been to Iran, so I'm not familiar with how the economy works there. 

Salam the major economical corruption in Iran is about children or close relatives of authorities that misuse  Economic rent & their position that everyone for any economic activity must pays heavy bribe to them or themselves start a fraud  economic activity that after exposing their lie or arresting they remain untouchable from  law enforcing on them that previous Judiciary chief was not firm enough about punishing them but in recent days the new chief starts positive procedure to punish them & stops their economical corruption

Iran's Judiciary chief:

Fighting discrimination and corruption, Judiciary’s top priority

http://en.abna24.com/news//fighting-discrimination-and-corruption-judiciary’s-top-priority_953748.html

June 22, 2019 - 7:54 PM News Code : 953748 Source : MehrLink: 

Fighting discrimination and corruption, Judiciary’s top priority

for clarification the new Judiciary chief is Sayed with black Abbaya in center that a bodyguard with gray coat is behind him 

The Head of Iran's Judiciary emphasized on Saturday that fighting discrimination and corruption and implementing justice is the main focus of the Judiciary. 

n a speech at the mausoleum, Raisi said 40 years ago, Imam Khomeini raised the flag of implementing justice in society, and establishing a state based on justice and fighting against cruelty and corruption, Iran Press reported. 

He added: “The founder of the Islamic Revolution always emphasised on implementing justice.” 

The Head of Iran's Judiciary noted that in his watch, ‘Public Rights’ will be underscored and no one shall do an injustice to the public. 

Judiciary Week in Iran is named after Seyyed Mohammed Hosseini Beheshti along with 72 colleagues who were martyred in a terrorist bomb blast in June 1981. 

Ayatollah Beheshti served as the head of the Judiciary in the early years after the victory of the Islamic revolution. 

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13 hours ago, Abu Hadi said:

I know about the economic problems. Could you elaborate on the economic corruption part. I have never been to Iran, so I'm not familiar with how the economy works there. 

Too many embezzlements, ecenomic rents, money laundering, usually by authorities or their family members. Many people (even many supporters of the government) have lost thier trust.

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1 hour ago, shadow_of_light said:

Is this being dealt with by the Senior Leadership / Imam Khameni(ha) ? 

When these issues are brought to the Senior Government Leadership, what is their response ? Is there an active effort by them to stop this from happening ? 

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1 hour ago, shadow_of_light said:

Too many embezzlements, ecenomic rents, money laundering, usually by authorities or their family members. Many people (even many supporters of the government) have lost thier trust.

Many people in Iran complaining about corruption but when they get the chance to scam someone they will take it as well.

 

And when asked: why do you do that? They will reply: because someone else also did it.

Edited by IbnSina

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2 hours ago, IbnSina said:

Many people in Iran complaining about corruption but when they get the chance to scam someone they will take it as well.

 

And when asked: why do you do that? They will reply: because someone else also did it.

In my humble opinion, if this is happening on a wide scale, this should be the #1 Issue government should be focused on. There is oppression going on all over the world, but if there is no basic level of trust between the people and the government, none of the other things the government does really matters, because the people will not go along with it. If there is no internal consistency, there can never be external consistency. The fastest way for the trust to be undermined is this type of corruption, like was listed above, going unchecked and spreading. 

On top of the real issues of corruption, you have the US/Zionists who are constantly trying to blow up these issues in order to increase internal instability in Iran. So it is hard, actually impossible, especially for someone on the outside to figure out which part of this issue is real, and which part is just blown up nonsense. That is why me, as an outside, very rarely think about or bring up these issues, because I have concluded it is impossible, at this point, for me to figure out. At the same time, I am not saying it isn't happening. I think it is the primary responsibility of the people who live in Iran to continue to bring this issue before the government in a rational way that doesn't include those groups in Iran that are avowed enemies of the system of Wilayat Al Faqih and known Western sycophants. I don't know exactly how to do that, but there is a way to do it. 

One thing I know is that if this is done in a disrespectful way, it is very easy for those 'insiders' who are currently enjoying benefits that they don't deserve to say, 'Look that these people...they are US/Zionist collaborators trying to undermine the government'. Since there is a real threat from those people inside Iran, it would then be very easy for the requests and complaints of these people to be lumped together with the real US/Zionist collaborators and then dismissed. Then the corruption would go on, unchecked, which is probably what is going on now. So there needs to be a way to do this, while keeping this distinction and not being lumped together with those inside the country who are actively seeking to do harm to the Iranian government and people. This is the main point. Again, not sure how to do this. 

 

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3 hours ago, Abu Hadi said:

Is this being dealt with by the Senior Leadership / Imam Khameni(ha) ? 

When these issues are brought to the Senior Government Leadership, what is their response ? Is there an active effort by them to stop this from happening ? 

I often didnt listen to political and economic news but this is what I found on the internet:

Iran’s supreme leader criticized the government on Oct. 3 for failing to prevent the embezzlement, weighing into the political blame game over the biggest bank fraud the country has ever seen. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is Iran’s spiritual leader and highest authority. His veto is final in Iranian political affairs.

Khamenei said there should be “no mercy” for the defendants who allegedly used forged documents to obtain credit at one of Iran’s top financial institutions, Bank Saderat, to purchase assets, including major state-owned companies. “People should know all those [responsible] will be pursued. ... God willing, the traitorous hands will be cut,” said Khamenei, who has the final say in all state matters in Iran, in remarks broadcast on state TV.

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3 hours ago, IbnSina said:

Many people in Iran complaining about corruption but when they get the chance to scam someone they will take it as well.

 

And when asked: why do you do that? They will reply: because someone else also did it.

Yes, I agree. However there are also many good people who try to earn money through halal ways. Unfortunately such people mostly are not among the authorities. Because these people don’t emply unethical or unlawful methods for achieving high status in the government.

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2 hours ago, shadow_of_light said:

Yes, I agree. However there are also many good people who try to earn money through halal ways. Unfortunately such people mostly are not among the authorities. Because these people don’t emply unethical or unlawful methods for achieving high status in the government.

Its enough that you are related to someone who has high status in order to get high status in countries such as Iran, it's called nepotism and its widespread in the Middle East as part of the culture.

 

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On 6/22/2019 at 10:13 AM, Abu Hadi said:

I heard reports from several news outlets yesterday that there is alot of fear and anxiety in Iran over a potential US attack and that one may be imminent. 

I am asking brothers and sisters in Iran to not be so concerned with this. I am not saying it is impossible but it is highly unlikely. Here is why

We are not concerned AT ALL. You probably got your news from US backed media.

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3 hours ago, Abu Hadi said:

In my humble opinion, if this is happening on a wide scale, this should be the #1 Issue government should be focused on. There is oppression going on all over the world, but if there is no basic level of trust between the people and the government, none of the other things the government does really matters, because the people will not go along with it. If there is no internal consistency, there can never be external consistency. The fastest way for the trust to be undermined is this type of corruption, like was listed above, going unchecked and spreading. 

This is not a new type of problem, this type of problem has been there for 100s of years and is one of the negative parts of the culture of the region. Most people scam each other first chance they get. Regardless of who is in charge of the government, this problem will not go away in a day or two, its very embedded and it will take HUGE efforts to remove it. 

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