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Abu Hadi

Here's the Magic Number for End of Al Saud

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$100 per kw/H. This is the price for batteries that will make Electric Vehicles cheaper than Gasoline Vehicles. This is because the major cost, by far, of EV (Electric Vehicles) is the price of energy storage (batteries). This will cause a collapse in the price of oil. Since all they have as a source of their power is that fact that they control the oil, they will also collapse. My prediction. You can quote me on this. 

We are at $200 per kw/H now. Prices are dropping fast. 80% drop since 2010. We should achieve this by 2022 given current price curve. Big Party at my house in 2022 (further details coming.... ;) 

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Inventors have thwarted the profitability of the number one trade in the world which is petroleum several times in the last 100 years using various techniques. Unfortunately they were all removed from their seats and silenced. The reason is not Saudia doing what they did to Khashoggi. The culprit is the elite, the bankers, the corporations who can not allow that much money flow and profits to disappear. There is a reason why the petrodollar exists and without petro in the dollar the latter will also collapse. They will not let it happen until they find something as much profitable and enslaving to the masses. The ways to energy independence are there for those who can learn the science and build these things themselves but their commercial sales are forbidden in all countries.

Even the Tesla car by Elon Musk can only be charged at one of their charging stations and not for instance at your home with your solar system. The reason is money. Without the end of this super materialistic capitalist death grip on each and everything that forces you to pay money for even a glass of water I do not believe these breakthrough technologies that seem to promise independence and affordability for all will ever take the form of reality because reality is usurped by the banking elite.

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It’s not as simple as you think, oil will be around much much longer, and the world will take a long time to revolutionize to the electric era. the current low oil prices is hurting the Saudis enough that their cash reserves are slowly being depleted. Let’s assume in a few years it’s going to be the end of the oil age, do you know how many hundreds of millions of people’s livelihood will be destroyed ? Iraq for example would never recover from the damages of the civil war and US invasion. It’s not only the Saudis who are going to go down, no matter how bad you think the Saudis are, but they are the ones maintaining the two holy cities, thanks to the oil money in the eastern coast (Hasa), something the west coast (Hijaz) doesn’t have. The downfall of the Al Sauds will cause chaos 10x bigger than Iraq and Syria, and the Bedouin Arabs will return to their old days (jahiliya) of tribal princedoms and confederations (pre 1933) fighting each other over stupid thing that happened 500 years ago, and this isn’t an exaggeration. This is no way showing sympathy towards the al saud tyrants but I just don’t see an alternative to them yet, just like saddam in 2003.

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1 hour ago, Darth Vader said:

Even the Tesla car by Elon Musk can only be charged at one of their charging stations and not for instance at your home with your solar system.

I agree with most of what you've said, but I believe this is not true. You can definitely charge your Tesla at home, and if your solar power is sufficient, you can use it. 

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18 minutes ago, لبيك يا صاحب الزمان said:

It’s not only the Saudis who are going to go down, no matter how bad you think the Saudis are, but they are the ones maintaining the two holy cities

They aren't maintaining the holy place with this money but they are earning billions with Hajj and Umrah. 

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1151751/saudi-arabia

21 minutes ago, لبيك يا صاحب الزمان said:

The downfall of the Al Sauds will cause chaos 10x bigger than Iraq and Syria, and the Bedouin Arabs will return to their old days (jahiliya) of tribal princedoms and confederations (pre 1933) fighting each other over stupid thing that happened 500 years ago, and this isn’t an exaggeration.

The chaos you're assuming will be temporary and will subside once another regime in the region becomes stable. This is lot better than Al-Saud remaining in power for couple of decades and killing millions. 

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57 minutes ago, notme said:

I agree with most of what you've said, but I believe this is not true. You can definitely charge your Tesla at home, and if your solar power is sufficient, you can use it. 

The home charging device they give with Tesla model S has limitations. Its meant for overnight charging only because it charges at a slow rate of only 3 miles range increase per hour. It is meant to be plugged into a wall outlet. As there is no solar energy available at night, you are using fuel powering the power plant.

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1 hour ago, Sirius_Bright said:

They aren't maintaining the holy place with this money but they are earning billions with Hajj and Umrah. 

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1151751/saudi-arabia

The chaos you're assuming will be temporary and will subside once another regime in the region becomes stable. This is lot better than Al-Saud remaining in power for couple of decades and killing millions. 

Yes they were able to generate billions through oil money, and I’m pretty sure that the hashemites didn’t get even nearly this much when they were ruling over hijaz.

there won’t be another stable regime, turned out so well in Libya. Partition of Saudi Arabia is the most likely case and that’s a big IF it was able to stablilize after a civil war. And another big IF, there is someone able to bring down the Al Sauds, the Saudi national guard isn’t the typical national guard like in the west, they are loyal and only loyal to the House of saud not the state. And the national guard has outweighs the Saudi army by authority and power a lot when comparing both.

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2 hours ago, Darth Vader said:

The home charging device they give with Tesla model S has limitations. Its meant for overnight charging only because it charges at a slow rate of only 3 miles range increase per hour. It is meant to be plugged into a wall outlet. As there is no solar energy available at night, you are using fuel powering the power plant.

Tesla subsidiary Elektrek makes a battery bank, meant to be charged whenever it is sunny, then discharged by whatever uses a household prefers. If you've got plenty of money, you can have all kinds of nice things the rest of us can only dream about. 

In most of the United States and electricity usage of most American households, solar power must be supplemented with the public utility. In some more southern and arid regions, high end household solar power is actually able to send into the public utility. 

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On 11/11/2018 at 2:36 PM, Abu Hadi said:

This will cause a collapse in the price of oil. Since all they have as a source of their power is that fact that they control the oil, they will also collapse.

The problem is that an impending collapse will mean that the people who benefit most from Saudi oil will realise that they have a more limited timeframe within which to achieve their objectives. So the likelihood of a middle eastern war sooner rather than later rises.

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Saudis heavily invested in all new fields of Energy & they have great portion of Shares in these companies so they control them in their favor that their development won't cause trouble for them.

Why Saudi Arabia Would Want to Invest in Elon Musk and Tesla

https://www.wired.com/story/saudi-arabia-investment-elon-musk-tesla/

Hyperdrive
Saudi Wealth Fund to Invest $1 Billion in Tesla's Rival Lucid

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/saudi-wealth-fund-to-invest-1-billion-in-tesla-s-rival-lucid

 

Edited by Ashvazdanghe

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On 11/11/2018 at 6:42 PM, Sirius_Bright said:

Electric vehicles will be boon to the world. Clean environment and less influence of oil producing nations in world politics.

That will hurt Iran - Iraq as well. 

What will happen to electricity price

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17 hours ago, لبيك يا صاحب الزمان said:

It’s not as simple as you think, oil will be around much much longer, and the world will take a long time to revolutionize to the electric era. the current low oil prices is hurting the Saudis enough that their cash reserves are slowly being depleted. Let’s assume in a few years it’s going to be the end of the oil age, do you know how many hundreds of millions of people’s livelihood will be destroyed ? Iraq for example would never recover from the damages of the civil war and US invasion. It’s not only the Saudis who are going to go down, no matter how bad you think the Saudis are, but they are the ones maintaining the two holy cities, thanks to the oil money in the eastern coast (Hasa), something the west coast (Hijaz) doesn’t have. The downfall of the Al Sauds will cause chaos 10x bigger than Iraq and Syria, and the Bedouin Arabs will return to their old days (jahiliya) of tribal princedoms and confederations (pre 1933) fighting each other over stupid thing that happened 500 years ago, and this isn’t an exaggeration. This is no way showing sympathy towards the al saud tyrants but I just don’t see an alternative to them yet, just like saddam in 2003.

The vast majority of oil that is extracted is refined into gasoline, to be used in cars, trucks, etc. When this threshold is reached ($100 kw/H), demand for gasoline will drop significantly, and keep dropping. Because the price of oil is based on Supply and Demand, when demand drops, price will also drop. I am not saying that oil as a commodity will disappear Jan 1, 2020, what I am saying is that after the threshold is reached, oil prices will drop and will never recover. Oil will continue to be used for things like manufacturing of plastics, other petro chemical products, but the main driver of demand for oil will go away. Countries will not need to be pumping millions of barrels of oil per day out of the ground to meet that demand. 

Yes, it will affect other countries in the Middle East. Most of them have already realized this and are currently restructuring their economies to compensate for this. These countries will continue to exist, with a restructured economy, which I think will be better in the long run. There may be some short term financial pressure, but countries like Iraq and Iran existed long before oil was a commodity and will continue to exist after. 

What is unique about the country which is called 'Saudi Arabia' is two things which it doesn't share with any other country in the Middle East (except maybe some of the smaller Gulf States like Bahrain). 

First, It is ruled by one family, and, specifically by the sons of one particular individual (Abdul Aziz ibn Saud). It is an absolute monarchy with no 'checks and balances'. This rigid, hierarchical systems controlled by one family are very vunerable to collapse. 

Second, Al Saud doesn't see any reason to restructure their economy for the inevitable event and they feel they have no incentive to do this, because they are currently supported by a big world power (The US) and a regional power (Israel). They feel that 'whatever happens' their two friends will come to bail them out. This is completely wrong, and as soon as Al Saud is not useful for these powers anymore, they will drop them 'like a hot potatoe'. Al Saud is too stupid to realize this. 

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1 hour ago, Abu Hadi said:

The vast majority of oil that is extracted is refined into gasoline, to be used in cars, trucks, etc. When this threshold is reached ($100 kw/H), demand for gasoline will drop significantly, and keep dropping. Because the price of oil is based on Supply and Demand, when demand drops, price will also drop. I am not saying that oil as a commodity will disappear Jan 1, 2020, what I am saying is that after the threshold is reached, oil prices will drop and will never recover. Oil will continue to be used for things like manufacturing of plastics, other petro chemical products, but the main driver of demand for oil will go away. Countries will not need to be pumping millions of barrels of oil per day out of the ground to meet that demand. 

Yes, it will affect other countries in the Middle East. Most of them have already realized this and are currently restructuring their economies to compensate for this. These countries will continue to exist, with a restructured economy, which I think will be better in the long run. There may be some short term financial pressure, but countries like Iraq and Iran existed long before oil was a commodity and will continue to exist after. 

What is unique about the country which is called 'Saudi Arabia' is two things which it doesn't share with any other country in the Middle East (except maybe some of the smaller Gulf States like Bahrain). 

First, It is ruled by one family, and, specifically by the sons of one particular individual (Abdul Aziz ibn Saud). It is an absolute monarchy with no 'checks and balances'. This rigid, hierarchical systems controlled by one family are very vunerable to collapse. 

Second, Al Saud doesn't see any reason to restructure their economy for the inevitable event and they feel they have no incentive to do this, because they are currently supported by a big world power (The US) and a regional power (Israel). They feel that 'whatever happens' their two friends will come to bail them out. This is completely wrong, and as soon as Al Saud is not useful for these powers anymore, they will drop them 'like a hot potatoe'. Al Saud is too stupid to realize this. 

Concerning Saudis I have this feeling since some years that the family is going to kill and destroy itself just like they show Mexican criminals shooting each other in some old western movie. And they should do it sooner than after petroleum collapse and they should not make their Yemeni mass murdered victims wait for the vengeance since the Creator will be avenging them. There will be lots of blood.

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5 hours ago, Abu Hadi said:

The vast majority of oil that is extracted is refined into gasoline, to be used in cars, trucks, etc. When this threshold is reached ($100 kw/H), demand for gasoline will drop significantly, and keep dropping. Because the price of oil is based on Supply and Demand, when demand drops, price will also drop. I am not saying that oil as a commodity will disappear Jan 1, 2020, what I am saying is that after the threshold is reached, oil prices will drop and will never recover. Oil will continue to be used for things like manufacturing of plastics, other petro chemical products, but the main driver of demand for oil will go away. Countries will not need to be pumping millions of barrels of oil per day out of the ground to meet that demand. 

Yes, it will affect other countries in the Middle East. Most of them have already realized this and are currently restructuring their economies to compensate for this. These countries will continue to exist, with a restructured economy, which I think will be better in the long run. There may be some short term financial pressure, but countries like Iraq and Iran existed long before oil was a commodity and will continue to exist after. 

What is unique about the country which is called 'Saudi Arabia' is two things which it doesn't share with any other country in the Middle East (except maybe some of the smaller Gulf States like Bahrain). 

First, It is ruled by one family, and, specifically by the sons of one particular individual (Abdul Aziz ibn Saud). It is an absolute monarchy with no 'checks and balances'. This rigid, hierarchical systems controlled by one family are very vunerable to collapse. 

Second, Al Saud doesn't see any reason to restructure their economy for the inevitable event and they feel they have no incentive to do this, because they are currently supported by a big world power (The US) and a regional power (Israel). They feel that 'whatever happens' their two friends will come to bail them out. This is completely wrong, and as soon as Al Saud is not useful for these powers anymore, they will drop them 'like a hot potatoe'. Al Saud is too stupid to realize this. 

1) Iran has been under sanctions since 1979, their economy is surviving, but without the support of oil they number of zeroes on their currency will increase (inflation).

2) Iraq has been independent for less than 100 years around the time oil was discovered there, before that it was apart of ottoman turkey and Safavid Persia

3) Absolute monarchies (Saudi, UAE, Oman) are less prone to instability/getting overthrown, compared to constitutional monarchies (Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar) where the emir is kept under control by parliament and can be deposed from the throne if majority vote from parliament. Here in the Gulf states, the absolute monarchies do not trust their militaries at all. If you actually look at Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Oman, the head of the military (field marshal/ general) is always a prince from the ruling family, this is to keep the military in check and in line. Nepotism dominates Saudi society, your place in Saudi society depends on your name, if you do not belong to a major Bedouin tribe aligned with the tribe/house of Saud, forget about getting at least a decent paying job, which is the reason why the Al Sauds won't be going anywhere.

4) After Abdulaziz ibn Sauds conquest/wars of the Arabian Peninsula (1900-31), he has married the daughter of every tribal chief/ princedom in his kingdom. His sons also belong to most of the major tribes, as long as they have the support of these tribes, again they wont be going anywhere. Lastly, just a final note, the house of Saud have established 3 separate kingdoms over the course of the last 400 years, they will go out of one door and come out of the other.

5) Even if they lost the support of the US, the Chinese or Indians will happily take the chair of US influence over Saudi Arabia and buy all of their oil. At this stage, I believe the US learned their lesson after Iraq and Afghanistan.

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2 hours ago, Sumerian said:

Oil wll peak in the 2050s, not now. Demand will grow until then. 

It'll be too late for us then. The lifestyle we all enjoy now will have to change long before then. 

But what makes you believe that demand will grow until 2050s? That's when the generation currently in power will be dying off? 

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1 hour ago, notme said:

It'll be too late for us then. The lifestyle we all enjoy now will have to change long before then. 

But what makes you believe that demand will grow until 2050s? That's when the generation currently in power will be dying off? 

Because the developing world will keep oil in demand in the forseeable future even as developed countries make the step to transition. Furthermore, planes are still going to need fuel for a long time.

Here is some good research;

https://katusaresearch.com/11822-2/

Edited by Sumerian

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16 hours ago, لبيك يا صاحب الزمان said:

1) Iran has been under sanctions since 1979, their economy is surviving, but without the support of oil they number of zeroes on their currency will increase (inflation).

2) Iraq has been independent for less than 100 years around the time oil was discovered there, before that it was apart of ottoman turkey and Safavid Persia

3) Absolute monarchies (Saudi, UAE, Oman) are less prone to instability/getting overthrown, compared to constitutional monarchies (Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar) where the emir is kept under control by parliament and can be deposed from the throne if majority vote from parliament. Here in the Gulf states, the absolute monarchies do not trust their militaries at all. If you actually look at Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Oman, the head of the military (field marshal/ general) is always a prince from the ruling family, this is to keep the military in check and in line. Nepotism dominates Saudi society, your place in Saudi society depends on your name, if you do not belong to a major Bedouin tribe aligned with the tribe/house of Saud, forget about getting at least a decent paying job, which is the reason why the Al Sauds won't be going anywhere.

4) After Abdulaziz ibn Sauds conquest/wars of the Arabian Peninsula (1900-31), he has married the daughter of every tribal chief/ princedom in his kingdom. His sons also belong to most of the major tribes, as long as they have the support of these tribes, again they wont be going anywhere. Lastly, just a final note, the house of Saud have established 3 separate kingdoms over the course of the last 400 years, they will go out of one door and come out of the other.

5) Even if they lost the support of the US, the Chinese or Indians will happily take the chair of US influence over Saudi Arabia and buy all of their oil. At this stage, I believe the US learned their lesson after Iraq and Afghanistan.

Iran is the least vunerable of all the countries in the region to this change. As you said, they have been under economic sanctions and economic warfare since 1979. The government (and people) has figured out how to weather these storms and adjust and stay intact and as a viable state. At the same time, Iran will also go thru an economic shock when this happens and inflation may increase. It also may not be a significant event if they continue and speed up the process of diversifying their economy away from reliance on petroleum exports. Because of the economic warfare that has gone on since 1979, they have become very 'creative' in restructuring their economy and making bilateral and trilateral agreements on trade with many different countries in sectors other than petro-chemical. Also, I believe that the majority of the people support the current government and there are regular elections held in which both voter participation and diversity of candidates is much greater in comparison to 'free' societies, such as the US. 

The problem with Iran, and I have said this before in other threads, is that they are too insular and inward looking. If they fail to keep going with this process of establishing relationships with other countries (and currently this process is slowing down, partly because of sanctions but also because of domestic political issues) and start to 'cocoon' themselves as they have in the past, the transition might be very bumpy for them. 

I would say that Iraq is the next most vunerable country, besides Saudi. Although the Iraqi government is not a monarchy, it is an non functioning 'democracy' that is approaching a cleptocracy (rule by theft) where those at the top steal the oil revenue and depend on this theft for continuance of their power and influence. This is the legacy of an unsuccessful attempt to integrate the collapsed government of post US occupation (2003 to 2008) with an Arab Nationalist Government. The current system is almost entirely dependent on oil revenue for sustainability of power. Although, after this event, I believe Iraq will still exist as a country, in what type of system and what type of government is anybody's guess. I actually have no idea what this will be. 

As to your point 4, all this is history. As it stands currently, Mbs and those around him hold absolute power in the kingdom. The other tribes are only there to do deference to him. He, for the moment anyway, has the backing of Trump and Netanyahu, so he feels that he can do anything he wants (as is being demonstrated by the Khashoggi murder). His ruthless and heavy handed rule is making alot of enemies and uniting the tribes against him. If he loses the backing of Trump and Netanyahu (which may happen sooner than later), probably what will happen is that they will desperately look for someone to replace him, who will not be as heavy handed and ruthless, then those who are 'waiting in the wings' for the throne will see weakness at the top and draw their swords, and it will happen as hadiths have predicted, devolve into a civil war between the tribes that will end the rule of Al Saud for good. 

After those events, and the collapse of the oil markets, what would the Chinese or Indians want from a scattered collection of Arab tribal chiefs ? There will be nothing there that they would be interested in. To them, without oil as a commodity, Saudi Arabia is just a vast wasteland of sand. 

The Chinese and Indians have no domestic oil production to speak of, and a huge problem with air pollution. They are trying to speed up this process of adoption of EV over Internal Combustion. China has already said that they will ban production of internal combustion engines (the ones that need gasoline) by 2030. What does that tell you ? They can't move fast enough to ditch oil. So once they do that, and it will be soon, Saudi will mean nothing to them. 

Edited by Abu Hadi

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