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Sumerian

Will Russia kick Iran out of Syria?

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6 hours ago, IbnSina said:

I never said anything about Saudi and Qatar, if the majority of people want the government they have, then it is legitimate, although in both cases they have monarchy, so I dont know how much the will of the people will matter to begin with.

At least you're consistent in this regard.

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On 6/3/2018 at 1:46 PM, Sumerian said:

No, they said two things. They said they will not participate in the Southern Offensive, and they should leave Syria all together sooner or later.

In regards to Syria, the only words that should be important on such matters is that of the Syrian govt. When Iran does not let US or Israel dictate policies for it, I doubt they'd let Russia do it...Without Iran's contribution Russia's Syria campaign would not have been half as successful as it is today. I believe the reason for such statements are solely political (coughPutinTrumpSummitcough) and bares no weight on the ground....a psy op.

 

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7 hours ago, Wahdat said:

In regards to Syria, the only words that should be important on such matters is that of the Syrian govt. When Iran does not let US or Israel dictate policies for it, I doubt they'd let Russia do it...Without Iran's contribution Russia's Syria campaign would not have been half as successful as it is today. I believe the reason for such statements are solely political (coughPutinTrumpSummitcough) and bares no weight on the ground....a psy op.

 

Russia simply wants Assad to be their guy, while Iran wants Assad to be part of an anti-Israeli axis. Russia doesn't care about Iranian-Israeli animosity, but it doesn't want this animisity to hinder its interests.

Edited by Sumerian

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25 minutes ago, Sumerian said:

Russia simply wants Assad to be their guy, while Iran wants Assad to be part of an anti-Israeli axis. Russia doesn't care about Iranian-Israeli animosity, but it doesn't want this animisity to hinder its interests.

You mentioned Russia's interests, Iran's interests, but not Syria's interests.

The Jewish lobby in Russia is very strong just as its counterpart in the US- AIPAC. But they are no existent in Iran.

We saw recently how the little carrot of thawing relations with West (Putin-Trump summit and EU convergence with Russia) Russia made concession to Israel....so if you are a Syrian policy maker- who would you chose as an ally? Iran which has stood by it through thick and thin and would never sell Syria out...or Russia who could trade Syria any minute as part of a so called grand deal with the US? Seeing the cartoonish political psyche of most Arabs who are often attracted to big guns, I am sure you'd pick Russia...and this upside down logic that is the norm in the Arab world has them where they are today- occupied.

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12 minutes ago, Wahdat said:

You mentioned Russia's interests, Iran's interests, but not Syria's interests.

The Jewish lobby in Russia is very strong just as its counterpart in the US- AIPAC. But they are no existent in Iran.

We saw recently how the little carrot of thawing relations with West (Putin-Trump summit and EU convergence with Russia) Russia made concession to Israel....so if you are a Syrian policy maker- who would you chose as an ally? Iran which has stood by it through thick and thin and would never sell Syria out...or Russia who could trade Syria any minute as part of a so called grand deal with the US? Seeing the cartoonish political psyche of most Arabs who are often attracted to big guns, I am sure you'd pick Russia...and this upside down logic that is the norm in the Arab world has them where they are today- occupied.

That's for the Syrians to decide, not me. They need to pick someone who will ensure their national security interests are met and someone who will respect their sovereignty. 

It is clear however, that Iran wants a force in Syria after the war ends so that deal more damage against Israel in case a war between the two does happen.

While Russia wants to ensure their access to the Mediterranean remains unharmed, and their Naval Bases remain intact.

Edited by Sumerian

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2 hours ago, Sumerian said:

Russia simply wants Assad to be their guy, while Iran wants Assad to be part of an anti-Israeli axis. Russia doesn't care about Iranian-Israeli animosity, but it doesn't want this animisity to hinder its interests.

Russia hates the US. The US hates Russia.

Israel loves the US.  The US loves Israel.

Therefore by association Russia will be "less" israeli friendly than it could have been because they wont get enough benefits from it. Israel would never side with Russia over the US and in modern times I dont see the US and Russia siding with each other anytime soon.

 

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21 minutes ago, Wahdat said:

So you speak on behalf of Iran (we want to stay in Syria) and Russia (we want to protect our base) but you let Syrians decide for themselves? lol

I'm just saying what their interests in Syria are. I don't speak on behalf of them. Seems to me you just want to argue for the sake of argument.

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24 minutes ago, IbnSina said:

Russia hates the US. The US hates Russia.

Israel loves the US.  The US loves Israel.

Therefore by association Russia will be "less" israeli friendly than it could have been because they wont get enough benefits from it. Israel would never side with Russia over the US and in modern times I dont see the US and Russia siding with each other anytime soon.

 

It's not about siding. It's about not wanting a war to happen which can hinder their own Russian interests in the Middle East and in Syria.

For example, Europe and the US are NATO allies, that does not mean Europe is in favour of all of America's policies and actions, nor does it mean they are pro-Iran when they seek to undermine the US's attempts to destroy the nuclear deal. They do that because they believe it is personally beneficial to them.

The world of diplomacy does not tend to work in a Team A vs Team B vs Team C system. Sometimes your own allies will engage in different policies if it relates to their national security and key economic interests.

Russia simply cares about maintaining a friendly government in Syria, keeping their naval bases, and having access to the sea. As long as Iran and Israel don't get in the way of those goals, then Russia won't care.

This is clear in the new Russian-Israeli agreement reports;

www.timesofisrael.com/israel-russia-said-to-agree-on-pushing-iran-from-syria-border/amp/

Edited by Sumerian

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39 minutes ago, Sumerian said:

I'm just saying what their interests in Syria are. I don't speak on behalf of them. Seems to me you just want to argue for the sake of argument.

Why dont you say whats Syria's interests in Syria is?

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40 minutes ago, IbnSina said:

Russia hates the US. The US hates Russia.

Russia does not hate US....Russia has an immense inferiority complex when it comes to US. They always call them our 'American partners'....

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13 minutes ago, Wahdat said:

Why dont you say whats Syria's interests in Syria is?

Syria wants the terrorists to be defeated, a political solution, reconstruction money, no partition, and a gurrantee that Israel does not violate their sovereignty. They also want to re-establish relations with neighbouring countries that cut them off.

Edited by Sumerian

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On ‎6‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 4:14 PM, Sumerian said:

Obviously the anti-government foreign forces will leave first, but then Russia will expect Iran and Hezbollah to follow through.

There is no need for any group or country to have military presence in Syria once the terrorists are defeated, Kurds and the Syrian government reach an agreement. And they will not stay anyways, it is expensive, and there is no need.. it has nothing to do with Israeli desire or demand. Syria has been a sovereign state and hopefully it will fully control its borders and bring peace so millions of refugees who been a problem for neighbors will return home and life goes back to normal. But, if Israel and Saudi pigs wish that they can pressure Shia groups  & Iran to leave Syria so the militants would advance again and prolong the war, that is just a wishful thinking.

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Quote

The war against terrorism in Syria is far from over and so it’s too early to discuss the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from the country, Syrian President Bashar Assad said in his latest interview.

Ever since the conflict in Syria broke out, Lebanese Hezbollah fighters have offered substantial support to the Syrian Arab Army in battling the jihadist insurgency.

“The battle is long and ongoing.... but in the end Hezbollah is a basic element in this war – the battle is long, and the need for these military forces will continue for a long time. When there is a need, and when Hezbollah, Iran, or others believe that terrorism has been eliminated, they will tell us that they want to go home,” Assad told Iranian Al-‘Alam TV on Wednesday.

https://www.rt.com/news/429654-assad-syria-war-hezbollah/

 

According to President Bashar al-Assad's interview today, Hezbollah or pro-Iranian forces will not leave Syria anytime soon.

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