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Donald Trump and The Iran Deal (2018)

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42 minutes ago, hasanhh said:

Maybe, the lsraeli aggression is to get Damascus to divert resources to the Golan areas and away from the French landings planned in northern Lebanon.

Could be?

Doesn't look so, bruv. Remember that Macron is not in on the Suez War 2.0 plan, and has repeatedly voiced his opposition to this ganging up.
The Zionists and France(and the EU, for that matter) are not on the same page regarding the deal, and there's little apparent reason to believe that there's some concerted plan of action between the two, or that the Israhellis are gonna help the French militarily here.

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On 5/9/2018 at 3:55 AM, Haji 2003 said:

Well, they can't.

Russia and China perhaps, but European businesses are too tightly integrated with the U.S.

The European companies could continue business if they really wanted to. If they stuck together and said, 'We're all doing business with Iran, so go ahead, sanction all of us'. US is not going to sanction every European country plus China and Russia. That is most of the business the US does, it would sink the US economy also. The US Dept of Treasury, the ones who track and enforce the sanctions, only have so many employees. 

Edited by Abu Hadi

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54 minutes ago, Abu Hadi said:

The European companies could continue business if they really wanted to. If they stuck together and said, 'We're all doing business with Iran, so go ahead, sanction all of us'. US is not going to sanction every European country plus China and Russia. That is most of the business the US does, it would sink the US economy also. The US Dept of Treasury, the ones who track and enforce the sanctions, only have so many employees. 

If only the European countries had the integrity to do something like that...

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2 hours ago, Abu Hadi said:

The European companies could continue business if they really wanted to. If they stuck together and said, 'We're all doing business with Iran, so go ahead, sanction all of us'. US is not going to sanction every European country plus China and Russia. That is most of the business the US does, it would sink the US economy also. The US Dept of Treasury, the ones who track and enforce the sanctions, only have so many employees. 

Imam Khamenei said I have same criticism as Us to Europeans unless they accept it officially & declare it that  they will support Iran .

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9 hours ago, Abu Hadi said:

The European companies could continue business if they really wanted to.

It's not the companies per se that have a sanctions problem. It's the banks and there are not so many of them. And the companies need the banks for the trade finance etc. 

And this is what scares the daylights out of the banks:

Quote

Credit Suisse is expected to pay a fine of $536 million to settle accusations by the United States government and New York State authorities that it violated sanctions by helping Iran and other countries secretly funnel hundreds of millions of dollars through American banks, people involved in the negotiations said Tuesday.

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/16/business/16bank.html

The number of banks is not so many that the US Treasury cannot go after them or indeed even if there is a percentage chance of being caught, the fines can be so large that it's a threat that cannot be ignored.

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On 5/9/2018 at 1:25 PM, Laayla said:

Hahaha brother thank you, now i understand what this meme is about.

IMG_20180509_202329.jpg

This is about an Iranian man who is famous for getting bit by snakes, scorpions and bees. Whatever creature bites him will die. Poison to poison. :shifty: 

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13 hours ago, AbdusSibtayn said:

This repudiation of the deal is just the tip of the iceberg.......I strongly believe that Murtad bin Shaytan (la), Nut-and-Yahoo (la) and Dump (la) are also planning a 1956 Suez War-style localized military campaign against the Islamic Republic; their idiocy is that they will not be able to keep it localized, and it will end in a similar fiasco as the Suez War.

Another thought:

Since the US exports oil and does not 'need' Mid-east oil, this "crisis" is an excuse to bid up oil, so the GCC has more money to buy the weapons the US exports.

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10 hours ago, hasanhh said:

Another thought:

Since the US exports oil and does not 'need' Mid-east oil, this "crisis" is an excuse to bid up oil, so the GCC has more money to buy the weapons the US exports.

Perfectly plausible.

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For context:

On ‎5‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 3:03 PM, hasanhh said:

Another thought:

Since the US exports oil and does not 'need' Mid-east oil, this "crisis" is an excuse to bid up oil, so the GCC has more money to buy the weapons the US exports.

 

On ‎5‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 1:58 AM, AbdusSibtayn said:

Perfectly plausible.

 

On ‎5‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 9:46 AM, hasanhh said:

Not an original thought by me. l heard a commentator say this about two weeks ago. l forget who and where.

l was re-watching PBS Frontline "Saudi Arabia Uncovered" dated 29March2016 and in this it said that to quell dissent the King-KSA doled out $133BBillion. Then one of the interviewees said, KSA "doesn't have this kind of money anymore". And is still fighting in Yemen.(That cost, too.)

So a fabricated increase in ppb (price per barrel) is necessary for stability operations and to buy billions of dollars of American--computer controlled- weapons (remember the microchips in the fighters?)

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On 5/12/2018 at 10:31 PM, hasanhh said:

For context:

 

 

l was re-watching PBS Frontline "Saudi Arabia Uncovered" dated 29March2016 and in this it said that to quell dissent the King-KSA doled out $133BBillion. Then one of the interviewees said, KSA "doesn't have this kind of money anymore". And is still fighting in Yemen.(That cost, too.)

So a fabricated increase in ppb (price per barrel) is necessary for stability operations and to buy billions of dollars of American--computer controlled- weapons (remember the microchips in the fighters?)

That, plus reduce competition in crude oil export from Iran.
Sanctions=>Drop in demand=> Drop in production.
The takfiris gain both ways.

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From the US sponsored anti-lRl webblight lran Focus --which has a link too long to read, much less copy,

"How to Precipitate a Collapse of the lranian Dictatorship?" 15May18in the "nuclear" section.

:shock:"They mean it is a dictatorship that holds elections?" :hahaha:

At the end, quoting Sadeep Gopalan (The Hill) " lf Trump can persuade China that its own commercial interests require disengagement from lran, he might precipitate a collapse of the lranian dictatorship through and economic chokehold. That would bring peace to the lranian people and the region."

OPINE:  :hahaha:  A political collapse usually brings about political violence. This spouted garbage is more reminiscent of the old style "soviet peace offensive" than anything constructive.

BTW: when does lran next go to the polls to elect another  'dictator' ?

 

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Interesting article. Emphasis on the bold part at the bottom (bolded by me). 

Quote

MAY 14, 2018

The Damage Trump Has Done in the Middle East

by PATRICK COCKBURN

When Donald Trump was sworn in as president at the start of last year, many predicted that he would be a less explosive presence in the White House than he had been during the campaign. They hoped that he would be restrained by the permanent political and bureaucratic establishment in Washington and argued that radicals in power turn into compliant conservatives and seek to preserve the status quo.

At about this time, a friend sent me a clipping of a New York Times editorial dated 31 January 1933, with the title “Germany Ventures”. The writer recognised that there were qualms at the appointment as the head of the German government of a man who “has openly scorned it” and threatened to destroy it. But the editorial is reassuringly confident that this would not happen, citing many reasons such as the opposition of his cabinet colleagues who would oppose him “if he sought to translate the wild and whirling words of his campaign speeches into political action”.

Other limitations on the new leader’s power also suggested that nothing much would change: German finances were in strong and conservative hands; attempts to establish a dictatorship would provoke a general strike; German foreign policy would be unchanged; and President Paul von Hindenburg could unmake the new chancellor just as quickly as he had made him.

 

In a classic piece of political miscalculation, the editorial writer reassured readers: “It may be that we will see the ‘tamed’ Hitler of whom some Germans are hopefully speaking,” he said. “Always we may look for some such transformation when a radical demagogue fights his way into responsible office.” Judgement of the new German leader should be suspended until he had shown if he was more than “a flighty agitator” who would “compel the German people to take a leap into the dark”.

I took the point at the time that the friend who had sent me the clipping was seeking to point out how easy it was to underestimate the degree to which demagogues can be even more power-hungry and destructive in office than they were before. But I did not use the clipping because I felt that it was premature to compare Trump to the elected dictators of the past – of whom Mussolini and Hitler are only the worst examples – who won a majority at the polls and then tried to eliminate all opposition to their authority at home and abroad.

From Napoleon III to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan today, populist nationalist strongmen have much in common: simpleminded slogans and vague promises guaranteed to win votes, attacks on independent media, contempt for the law (though lauding law and order), control and marginalisation of parliament, chauvinism, militarism, allegations of corruption and an incessant pursuit of power.

President Barack Obama predicted that Trump would find the American ship of state difficult to turn, but turn it did. The “grown-ups” in his cabinet, mostly former generals of whom so much as was expected, have come and gone. Those that remain are ignored and humiliated such as Secretary of State, Jim Mattis, who said that the Iran nuclear deal was doing its job.

Trump has been systematically blowing up the fixed points in American foreign policy, so the political temperature in the Middle East is continually rising. As one commentator put it, there are more unpredictable “moving parts” than ever before in the different crises, parts which may break loose at any moment.

This week saw the US pull out of the Iran nuclear accord and Israel make heavy airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria. But the coming week may bring almost equally dangerous developments: on 12 May there is the Iraqi parliamentary election in which no party is likely to win a majority. The US and Iran are backing different sides to try to ensure that the next Iraqi government is favourable to them. Iraqis fear their country will be the arena in which the US and Iran fight for supremacy, with the odds favouring the Iranians if only because they, like the majority of Iraqis, are Shia Muslims.

Practical questions will arise after the election: what, for instance, will be the future for the 10,000 US soldiers and military contractors in Iraq but whose presence is not as necessary as it was before the defeat of Isis? As the US imposes stringent economic sanctions on Iran, will it penalise individuals, banks and companies in Iraq doing business with Iran? Iran has every incentive to route part of its business through Baghdad, where the US will have to step lightly in order to avoid alienating local allies.

Within two days of the Iraqi election, the US Embassy in Israel will move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Israeli and American flags will flutter in every street and there will be 150 giant billboards with the face of Donald Trump on them. This will happen on 14 May, the same day as tens of thousands of Palestinians will march in Gaza to try to break through the fence surrounding the enclave.

The demonstration comes at the end of seven weeks of protests called the “Great March of Return” in which the Palestinians sought to reassert their right to return to the land in Israel from which they were expelled or fled in 1947. At least 43 Palestinians have been killed and 1,700 wounded in the protests so far. The peace process between Israel and the Palestinians has long been moribund, but Trump is brazenly saying to the Palestinians that they count for nothing and can expect nothing from diplomacy.

The danger is that, like so many other populist nationalist strongmen, Trump will overplay his hand. From the eastern borders of Afghanistan to the Mediterranean, the US position is not strong. He looks to local powers like Israel and Saudi Arabia but they can do less for him than he imagines. There is a diplomatic price to be paid for ignoring European and other allies who see that appeasement of Trump gets them nowhere and is despised as a sign of weakness.

The problem is that Trump’s vision of the Middle East is made up of gobbets of neo-conservative propaganda supplemented by the self-serving views of Israeli and Saudi leaders. He may imagine that the Palestinian issue will go away, though it has stubbornly refused to do so for the past century. He may think that Iraq can be detached politically from Iran, but this is not going to happen. He appears to expect economic sanctions to lead to regime change or abject surrender by Iran, but there is no reason to believe this will happen. Trump may not intend war in the Middle East, but he cannot get what he wants without one – and maybe not even then.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/05/14/the-damage-trump-has-done-in-the-middle-east/

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On ‎5‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 9:23 AM, repenter said:

It's a shame the guy that has kept enemies at bay in middle east, leader of quds force, prevented countless escalations from happening, slowly made shias stronger than ever before, exposed enemies, traitors and hostilities etc etc doesn't have you as his advisor.

We really need insight and foresight like yours.

Maybe! Or maybe his advisors are mainly corrupt and working for the interests of enemies and it's time for me to sign up...!

Anyhow, seriously, you don't see any problem here? Either back off and leave Syria, Lebanon, Palestine..etc.. or do something to protect your nationals, your country, your honor and those who are being killed by Israeli agents for years inside Iran and nowadays in front of the eyes of the world.. Why shouldn't we be able to express our opinions here? And you (as an admin) come and make fun of ppl here?!!  As an admin you should be happy to see ppl come express different opinions.

btw: I don't agree with most of your initial points---> kept enemies at bay in ME, made shias stronger...etc.. things could have been much-much better!

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On ‎5‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 10:06 PM, Laayla said:

Woke up to this news.  

Iranian forces on the Syrian-held side of the Golan Heights fired around 20 projectiles towards Israeli army positions in the forward defensive line of the Golan Heights causing no damage or injuries, the IDF confirmed Thursday morning.

“Around 12.10 in the morning there were some 20 projectiles fired towards communities in the Golan Heights fired by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp’s elite Quds Force,” the IDF stated.

Incoming rocket sirens were activated early Thursday morning in Israel’s northern Golan Heights communities of Majdal Shams, Neve Ativ, Nimrod, Masa’ade, Buqa’ata, Odem, and El Rom.  
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Shots-fired-towards-Israeli-communities-in-the-Golan-556017

Good.. the admin was making fun of me... so here we go, finally some smart ppl acted.. next time make it 200 projectiles, then see how these Zionist rats will have the courage to strike again.. who doesn't like free shots if there is no consequences? They been attacking Syria for years and years, the only reason is that Syria never had the mean or the courage to fire back.. Why they cannot attack Hezb (a small group) in south Lebanon everyday?!!

 

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3 hours ago, Noah- said:

Good.. the admin was making fun of me... so here we go, finally some smart ppl acted.. next time make it 200 projectiles, then see how these Zionist rats will have the courage to strike again.. who doesn't like free shots if there is no consequences? They been attacking Syria for years and years, the only reason is that Syria never had the mean or the courage to fire back.. Why they cannot attack Hezb (a small group) in south Lebanon everyday?!!

Sometimes when you don't respond to someone on their selfproclaimed great ideas, they will feel the urge to continue and then eventually you realise you never needed to respond, they spared you half a page of writing by continuing their great geopolitical theories.

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@myouvial  This is expected by a lot of commentators.

Similarly, l am now watching the German Parliament Debate on DeutscheWelle.

Chancellor Merkel said that "Europe must stand on (its -ed.) own". Syria and lran she spoke on for 20 minutes. She is also wants more money for the Bundeswehr.

Did you see the actual engineering achievement of a bridge spanning the Kerch Strait? Years ago, but l forget the specifics, such a bridge was not feasible. Which is why ferries have been used.

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2 minutes ago, kirtc said:

They lost Syria and are trying a different approach at weakening Iran through its economy...

Economic attacks, to include over seas workers, has been a US policy since 1979.

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On 5/16/2018 at 8:35 AM, Noah- said:

Why they cannot attack Hezb (a small group) in south Lebanon everyday?!!

Salam they just want to spread fear to show themselves invincible but they are weak from inside & can’t stand against a group of Muslims that work toghether,if all Muslim Ummah was united against them they would perish until now.

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America faces real threat from Europe to block Iran sanctions

BY PETER HARRELL, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 05/17/18 12:00 PM EDT
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL
28
 
 
 
 
 
 
America faces real threat from Europe to block Iran sanctions
© Getty Images

European leaders have sharply criticized President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union have opened negotiations with Iran to see if they can keep Iran in the agreement, and European diplomats began meeting this week to discuss strategies to insulate European companies from the U.S. sanctions that the Trump administration plans to reimpose later this year.

http://thehill.com/opinion/international/388153-america-faces-real-threat-from-europe-to-block-iran-sanctions

With Iran sanctions Trump made Europeans look like the fools they are

John Laughland
John Laughland, who has a doctorate in philosophy from the University of Oxford and who has taught at universities in Paris and Rome, is a historian and specialist in international affairs.
 
Published time: 18 May, 2018 13:03
With Iran sanctions Trump made Europeans look like the fools they are
EU-Western Balkans Summit in Sofia, Bulgaria, May 17, 2018. © Stoyan Nenov / Reuters
  •  
The attacks by European leaders against US President Donald Trump are getting sharper by the day.

On the day Trump announced that he was ripping up the Iran deal, and that the US would impose sanctions on European companies trading with that country, the French finance minister Bruno Le Maire said that European states refused to be treated like "vassals" of the US.

At Aachen on 11 May, Emmanuel Macron effectively accused the US of blackmail.  On 17 May, the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, asked, "With friends like that (i.e. Trump), who needs enemies?

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/427116-eu-sanctions-iran-trump/

 

 

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