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Donald Trump and The Iran Deal (2018)

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After Trump’s Iran Decision, Get Ready For Middle Eastern Havoc, Specially In Europe. Yes Europe. #MirMak #Iran #Trump #JCPOA

By. Mir Mohammad Alikhan 

All three parts of my March 24th article have come true. North Korea has agreed to denuclearisation. Trump pulled out of the Iran deal. And oil prices soared since that day and will go up further in my view. But is that all ? No. Absolutely not. 

The implications are far more than just oil and it’s prices. It is an unprecedented act in the history of the world of diplomatic manoeuvres that an act which was co-signed by three European allies of America, France, Germany and The United Kingdom, has been reneged upon. The 2015 JCPOA or the lifting of the sanctions off of Iran in return for certain conditions was a multiparty agreement. Not just between America and Iran. If you are a student of history and diplomatic deals, you would already know that the reason several parties become part of an agreement is because there was a lack of trust to begin with and multi party engagement assures that nobody walks away from what they have agreed upon. 

France, has big stakes in Iran. UK does regular business with the Iranian companies. Germany being an economic giant and an industrialised nation stands to lose billions in exports to Iran. This is not going to sit well with these countries and for any future diplomatic agreements, the trust level between any country or countries and America will vanish into thin air. 

And this pulling out of the agreement will make the Iranian regime an absolute hero in the eyes of the Iranian people. The popularity of the Ayatollahs will sky rocket. They have been saying for decades that America and its allies are not trustworthy. And this proves it. From Khomeini to Khamenei to Roohani to Rafsanjani and even the non Ayatollahs like Banisadr and Ahmedinejad have said the same thing. And as long as Irani leaders have the backing of the Iranian people, they will become aggressive. For two reasons. One that I gave above, the overall public support and two, because what happened on Sunday in the Lebanese elections. Hezbollah swept the elections in Lebanon. Winning more seats than 2009 and Hariri and the party losing 1/3 of its existing seats to Hezbollah. 

A strong Hezbollah means a stronger Iran right next door to Israel. And stronger Iran means a stronger Bashar Al Asad in Syria. And because of Hariri losing its grip on the Lebanese Parliament, it means a weaker Saudi Arabia because Hariri is a Saudi candidate. And a weaker Saudi Arabia near Syria means that the newly formed triangular friendship between Israel, America and the Saudis is no longer that strong. And that makes the Yemenis stronger against the Saudis with the help of Iran. 

Now France, Germany and the UK who had an unofficial policy avoiding making any public statements condemning the acts of Saudis in Yemen will no longer do the same. These three European nations will very soon take out their anger on America by issuing public statements in favour of Yemen. That will create further tensions in the Middle East. 

A war ? I don’t think so. A war of words ? Absolutely. A direct war ? Absolutely not. An increase in intensity of an already existing proxy war of Iran, Saudi, Yemen and Syria. Absolutely yes. Russia will stand with Syria. Syria with Iran. Hezbollah with Syrian officials and against Israel. China will make a policy statement and ask why should they play a role in bringing North Korea to denuclearise when Trump can not deliver his promises and cancel the deals. 

North Korea in my view will play on this Trump move and delay the denuclearisation announcing. Kim Jong Un will meet Trump but will not announce anything regarding a deal. 

The gist of e everything written above is simple. America lost its credibility. And Iran despite of all the sanctions stands much stronger than it was yesterday. Get ready for war of words and a few missiles here and there.

What a wonderful world of deceit, lies and enigmas wrapped in betrayals we live in.

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Is Raheel Shareef Ready To Come Back To Pakistan After The Trump Decision About Iran ? #MirMak #GeneralRaheelShareef #IslamicMilitaryAlliance #JohnBolton #Trump

I know, I know, you must be thinking, what does Raheel Shareef have to do with Donald Trumps' decision about Iran ? Well you are wrong. He has everything to do with it, or eloquently put, he has everything to do with the impacts of the decision because Trump's decision impacts the Middle Eastern situation and that impacts the Syrian conflict and the next thing Trump will demand from Saudi Arabia for going against Iran is Saudi support in Syria for the conflict. 

Yes, this is another assessment of mine that very soon, you will hear demands from the Trump administration that KSA give support to Americas' decision to bring the Syrian conflict to its logical conclusion. And the only thing left for KSA to do is to commit its troops on ground into Syria. KSA has no troops capable enough to fight in a foreign land or in a foreign conflict. So the next best option left is, KSA committing the Islamic Military Alliance troops into Syria, the one headed by General Raheel Shareef. The agenda of Trump is not to support KSA or to go against Iran, in my view the real agenda, ever since John Bolton has joined Trump administration and looking at John Bolton's history over the decades, is to destabilize the Middle Eastern region. It is to create such conflicts amongst the Muslim countries that it gets polarized between Shias and Sunnis, Ajamis and Arabs, Turks and Qataris, and if possible, the world and the Muslims. The best way to accomplish this goal is by doing the following. 

First sell a huge cache of arms and defence equipment worth an unprecedented amount. Like the deal between KSA and America for over $700 billion dollars. Announce it to the world openly, such deals are rarely publicized, to leave no room for the buyer to walk out of and the region to see the military capabilities of the buyer. Cancel a previously signed upon deal (Iran) to absolutely irritate the regional foe of KSA. Draw the foe into a conflict already existing in Syria and engage him at full throttle in the war outside its territory and the territory of the friendly weapons buyer from America. Create a gulf within the gulf states and a war that makes money for America and then ask, the Islamic Military Alliance for support by sending its troops to Syria. 

I would not want to be in Raheel Shareefs' shoes right now. Not at all. If he agrees to remain the head of IMA, he is breaking the promise he has made when he had joined, that IMA will never be used against any Islamic country, directly or indirectly. If he does leave IMA, he not only irritates his employer, KSA, but KSA relations with Pakistan also get effected. 

Another very strange coincidence is happening in Pakistan, extremely strange, some of the same Western Ambassadors who were present in Baghdad, when it broke apart, and in Tripoli, Libya, when it was attacked, are also serving in Islamabad as Ambassadors to Pakistan for their countries. I will not name them here, do some research and you will be astonished. 

So, if Raheel Shareef comes back or stays back is less consequential in the bigger picture than to realize that a fifth generation psychological warfare combined with the conventional military might is coming to the countries in this region, if former is already not present in Pakistan. Whatever the case maybe, remain united. Forget your affiliations, your love, your views, your stances, your sects, your beliefs...and just remember one thing, 

Pakistan is above all of us.

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An important thing to remember, and I'm not entirely sure about US law on this, is that Congress could vote to overrule Trump's decision so, hopefully, they'll prove to be more sane than him. Though, with the state of the Republican Party at the moment...I'm not too hopeful.

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6 hours ago, Khadim uz Zahra said:

An important thing to remember, and I'm not entirely sure about US law on this, is that Congress could vote to overrule Trump's decision so, hopefully, they'll prove to be more sane than him. Though, with the state of the Republican Party at the moment...I'm not too hopeful.

From wikipedia:

Quote

The 2014 elections gave the Republicans control of the Senate (and control of both houses of Congress) for the first time since the 109th Congress. With 248 seats in the House of Representatives and 54 seats in the Senate, this Congress began with the largest Republican majority since the 71st Congress of 1929–1931.

Republicans seem to be coming out in favour of Trump, so regardless of what they feel personally, they'll likely support him.

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This is where we are heading:

Quote

Instead, the EU will have to decide whether to pursue its proposals, originally concocted to persuade Trump to stay in the deal, to negotiate a supplementary agreement with Iran covering its ballistic missile program, its foreign policy interventionism in the Middle East and the controversial sunset clauses in the deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/09/europes-clash-with-trump-over-iran-nuclear-deal-is-a-durability-test

If the Iranians agree to the new agreement, be prepared for later calls for even stricter controls on Iran.

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1 hour ago, Haji 2003 said:

If the Iranians agree to the new agreement, be prepared for later calls for even stricter controls on Iran.

Iran will never accepts a new agreement , currently nobody is in favor of America at Iran .

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1 hour ago, Laayla said:

What was the Sheikh yelling?

He is yelling we burned the (Barjaam)deal.:grin:

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11 hours ago, Noah- said:

Trump exit from the deal and Israel once again attacks Iranian sites in Damascus today and killing them and their allies... When Iranian leadership, Khamenei and all others will be man enough and  going to respond? The more silence, the more attacks.. how many times Israel should strike and kill you before you do something!?! 

It's a shame the guy that has kept enemies at bay in middle east, leader of quds force, prevented countless escalations from happening, slowly made shias stronger than ever before, exposed enemies, traitors and hostilities etc etc doesn't have you as his advisor.

We really need insight and foresight like yours.

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4 hours ago, Ashvazdanghe said:

He is yelling we burned the (Barjaam)deal.:grin:

Hahaha brother thank you, now i understand what this meme is about.

Mash'Allah God bless you akhi.

M3 Salamah, FE AMIN Allah 

IMG_20180509_202329.jpg

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20 hours ago, Haji 2003 said:

The only downside for them and the possible upside for Iran is that on both previous occasions when they did a similar calculus, Iran came out on top.

Looking back at the four decades since the inception of the Islamic Republic, one cant help but notice that almost all anti-Iranian Western actions have had consequences that were anti-West and pro-Iran: whether it were the unleashing of mad dog Saddam, creation of Taliban and Alqaida, Iraq warz, ISIS etc.....this move likewise.....cuz at the end of the day God/Universe/The Force/Nature etc has a way of balancing things out. 

Iran, by not siding with terrorism or lying to the world or holding the world hostage for its own short term goals, is on the right side of history...and is going to thrive and flourish even if there is a war...specially if there is a war.

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JCPOA and its Legal Status:

https://www.lawfareblog.com/state-department-affirms-iran-deal-only-political-commitment   --28Nov2015

As noted in the last paragraph, Trump can pull out at will.

Well, at least lRl got some of the money the US impounded/confiscated over the years.

The Eu, as l elsewhere noted, can divert US sanction activity and other punitive actions by setting up another bank which does not do business in the US. Plus the corporations can form offshore subsidiaries that do business with lran ---like Cheney's Haliburton does.

OPINE: l am again reminded of what Rafsanjani said at jummah ~1999, "lf it was not this (contrived complaints about lran's lawful ability to enrich uranium and use the same research reactor as grad students use in Pennsylvania), it will be something else" (to harass lRl about).

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On 5/8/2018 at 7:48 PM, Reza said:

Is the John Oliver video worth watching, or is there too much cringe in it?

Depends on how you define cringe. I don't think its cringy IMHO, though its preferable that you skip at 3:41 to 4:17 since it adds nothing to the video.

Overall, John Oliver gives out some information to work with the reality of the Western Nations relationship with The Iran Deal. It doesn't tell the whole story though since Oliver strictly focuses on Western Nations and their interests towards the Iran Deal. Where is Iran's side of the story behind all this mayhem?

Also, thank you for your input @Akbar673 and @Abu Hadi. It would also be better if you could support your input with sources to back the validity of the claims you bring.

We live in a world after all where anyone can be misinformed about anything regardless of logic and common sense.

Edited by ZethaPonderer
Adding furthermore and highlighting out parts to skip

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1 minute ago, ZethaPonderer said:

Where is Iran's side of the story behind all this mayhem?

A pre-requisite for this would be any kind of humanization, which evaporated years ago, if it was ever there. Liberals are as vacuous as anyone else here. 

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On 5/8/2018 at 9:43 PM, Noah- said:

Trump exit from the deal and Israel once again attacks Iranian sites in Damascus today and killing them and their allies... When Iranian leadership, Khamenei and all others will be man enough and  going to respond? The more silence, the more attacks.. how many times Israel should strike and kill you before you do something!?! 

Woke up to this news.  

Iranian forces on the Syrian-held side of the Golan Heights fired around 20 projectiles towards Israeli army positions in the forward defensive line of the Golan Heights causing no damage or injuries, the IDF confirmed Thursday morning.

“Around 12.10 in the morning there were some 20 projectiles fired towards communities in the Golan Heights fired by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp’s elite Quds Force,” the IDF stated.

Incoming rocket sirens were activated early Thursday morning in Israel’s northern Golan Heights communities of Majdal Shams, Neve Ativ, Nimrod, Masa’ade, Buqa’ata, Odem, and El Rom.  
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Shots-fired-towards-Israeli-communities-in-the-Golan-556017

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On 5/9/2018 at 6:13 AM, Noah- said:

Trump exit from the deal and Israel once again attacks Iranian sites in Damascus today and killing them and their allies... When Iranian leadership, Khamenei and all others will be man enough and  going to respond? The more silence, the more attacks.. how many times Israel should strike and kill you before you do something!?! 

SAlam this is their plan that iran starts a war with KSA or Israel that they have an excuse for attack to Iran & demolish it' Regime until Iran has not upperhand in offensive state but current remaining in defensI've & humblet state looks hard bit will be has better results at the end.

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16 hours ago, Laayla said:

Woke up to this news.  

Iranian forces on the Syrian-held side of the Golan Heights fired around 20 projectiles towards Israeli army positions in the forward defensive line of the Golan Heights causing no damage or injuries, the IDF confirmed Thursday morning.

“Around 12.10 in the morning there were some 20 projectiles fired towards communities in the Golan Heights fired by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp’s elite Quds Force,” the IDF stated.

Incoming rocket sirens were activated early Thursday morning in Israel’s northern Golan Heights communities of Majdal Shams, Neve Ativ, Nimrod, Masa’ade, Buqa’ata, Odem, and El Rom.  
https://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Shots-fired-towards-Israeli-communities-in-the-Golan-556017

Same here.

Looking up sources, l found the following in the last half-hour:

American Media: lran did it.

Israeli Media: the lRGC did it

BBC: Quotes lsraeli military as "lran did it"

Xinhua: Quotes lsraeli military like BBC BUT also has "lsrael launched missiles"

tass.com: lsrael launched missiles

rt.com: lsrael launched missiles

dw.com: lsrael launched missiles

presstv: lsrael launched missiles

reuters.com: "Iran...shells...Golan" (not missiles) -- lsrael calls Russia to say it will strike Syria -- lsrael airstrikes Syria (not missiles?)

APnews: "lsraeli mlty says it struck dozens of lranian mlty targets in Syria..."

AFP (France): lsrael missiles Syria ... Syria downs lsraeli missiles ... Explosions heard in Damascus -planes overhead... lsralel "hits dozens" of lranian targets ... "lranian forces fire on lsraeli positions in Golan"

:coffee:

Soooo, who knows... it is all "fake news".

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This repudiation of the deal is just the tip of the iceberg.......I strongly believe that Murtad bin Shaytan (la), Nut-and-Yahoo (la) and Dump (la) are also planning a 1956 Suez War-style localized military campaign against the Islamic Republic; their idiocy is that they will not be able to keep it localized, and it will end in a similar fiasco as the Suez War.

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14 minutes ago, AbdusSibtayn said:

This repudiation of the deal is just the tip of the iceberg.......I strongly believe that Murtad bin Shaytan (la), Nut-and-Yahoo (la) and Dump (la) are also planning a 1956 Suez War-style localized military campaign against the Islamic Republic; their idiocy is that they will not be able to keep it localized, and it will end in a similar fiasco as the Suez War.

Maybe, the lsraeli aggression is to get Damascus to divert resources to the Golan areas and away from the French landings planned in northern Lebanon.

Could be?

Edited by hasanhh
typing error

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