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ZethaPonderer

Donald Trump and The Iran Deal (2018)

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Just feel like sharing this content here for seeking knowledge about this issue between the relationship of Iran and USA which I know is not good and never will be good.

Is breaking off this deal good or bad long-term for Iran? Would it benefit or hurt Iran?

What do you all think about this issue? I'm at a loss for words and confused. :confused:

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"Russia to boost ties with lran if US pulls out of JCPOA: 0fficial"

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/05/05/560692/Iran-Russia-JCPOA 

Commentary: When Baby Bush(43) was failing in lraq, headlines constantly noted that lran is "winning".

Now with Tweeter Trump(45) the Russians will be "winning".

l wish all those people in Washington will join the Boy Scouts or Girl Scouts. So the rest of the country can have some adult leadership.

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Eric can only give '....you verymuch', and i think this their only maximum level of giving response on FCC (climate deal).

I wonder what is the maximum level of giving response on other thing (Iran deal) from Eric, Iran, and/or Muslim, Christians and other religion, Russia, China and other nations, Jews, Chinesse and other ethnic, man/woman and other gender if there is any ?

https://www.rt.com/uk/426175-eric-idle-fcc-song-remix/

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Trump exit from the deal and Israel once again attacks Iranian sites in Damascus today and killing them and their allies... When Iranian leadership, Khamenei and all others will be man enough and  going to respond? The more silence, the more attacks.. how many times Israel should strike and kill you before you do something!?! 

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From individual/microcosmos view :

When you/we are being biten by a dog, will you try do the same (biting the dog) ?

When Imam a.s. was being attack their a.s. character, will Imam a.s. do attacking the character of their attacker ?

From universe/human community/macrocosmos view :

Could you analize, conclude and act after learning from the individual/microcosmos view ?

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Looks like Israel just bombed Iranian troops again in Syria. If the argument is Iran doesn't want to provoke Israel and the US, then that will be the case forever, Israel will continue to strike and Iran will not do anything about it because they don't want to provoke a war, however I thought the whole argument about defending Assad was to prevent a pro-Israel puppet government from taking over Syria, but if Israel is just going to keep bombing Syria with impunity, then frankly I don't really see the logic in that argument either. Israel could level all of Damascus tomorrow and kill Assad if Iran responded to their attack by firing missiles into Israel, then what will Iran's response be? Frankly these incidents highlight Iran's limitations in the Middle East, Israel's hard power military edge will always be a deterrent for Iran, so long as Iran has no nukes and no airforce, and I'm not saying they should get nukes, but it shows in my view how overstated the claim that Syria is this nation that stands strong in resistance, it is frankly pretty weak and powerless. Israel has free reign to attack Assad and his allies whenever they please, if Israel really wants, Assad will be gone tomorrow, but they want a weaker Assad one with no Iranian or Hezbollah ties, and I think Assad will realise his survival, which is his ultimate priority will ultimately depend on him keeping Iran and Hezbollah contained. As for the crisis Israeli actions against Assad may trigger between Israel and Russia which may be what deters Israel now, so far not once has Russia done anything to respond to Israel, it'll probably just be some words exchanged and nothing more. 

Edited by Mohamed1993

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Trump will offer Iran a deal that effectively means Iran will have no foreign policy at all - at least as far as the middle east is concerned. There'll have to be a similar curtailment of military capability. In return, sanctions are lifted, perhaps even more so than they were before.

This will give Israel and the Saudis free rein to do whatever they want. 

There'll likely be some Iranians who'll be willing to accept this and there are those who won't. No doubt one part of the calculus is that offering this option is that it will drive a wedge in Iranian society, which can also be taken advantage of.

So the people who have advised Trump to do this likely see the following benefits:

1. Iranian public opinion gets divided - they win

or

2. Iran pulls out of Syria etc. - they win

or

3. Iran plays hardball, there's a war - they win

The only downside for them and the possible upside for Iran is that on both previous occasions when they did a similar calculus, Iran came out on top.

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On 5/9/2018 at 3:30 AM, Haji 2003 said:

Trump will offer Iran a deal that effectively means Iran will have no foreign policy at all - at least as far as the middle east is concerned. There'll have to be a similar curtailment of military capability. In return, sanctions are lifted, perhaps even more so than they were before.

This will give Israel and the Saudis free rein to do whatever they want. 

There'll likely be some Iranians who'll be willing to accept this and there are those who won't. No doubt one part of the calculus is that offering this option is that it will drive a wedge in Iranian society, which can also be taken advantage of.

So the people who have advised Trump to do this likely see the following benefits:

1. Iranian public opinion gets divided - they win

or

2. Iran pulls out of Syria etc. - they win

or

3. Iran plays hardball, there's a war - they win

The only downside for them and the possible upside for Iran is that on both previous occasions when they did a similar calculus, Iran came out on top.

Of course, that this is their reasoning is rather obvious; plus pro-Trump pundits have been saying as much on TV. However, his statements today are also a double-edged sword, since the sanctions which were lifted, and the ones that Iran truly cares about, are the US sanctions preventing non-US companies from working with Iran. Now, with his refusing to extend the deal, if he puts sanctions on third parties back, that would mean European/Russian/Chinese companies would not be very happy, and there's a high chance the other five countries will simply continue the deal (of course, assuming Iran doesn't just pull out as well, as a response to the US), all the while being very disgruntled with the US. This would allow Iran to keep working with European countries, which it has far stronger ties with than the US.

Part of the calculus may also be flawed as even anti-government Iranians are generally in favour of the deal, and their right to pursue nuclear energy so while the economic hardship may stir public opinion against the government, Trump's action will also be working to garner greater national unity among the Iranian people against the US.

I guess time, and the European-Iranian reaction to the move in the coming months, will tell what happens. In his statement today, Rouhani did state that Iran would now consider if the five countries alone can still make it work, and I can't imagine his saying that unless the European governments had previously already floated the idea that they would continue the deal even if the US withdraws.

I will say though, even though I'm not Iranian, the impunity with which the US is acting certainly infuriates me.

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Quote

One western diplomat called Mr Trump’s decision on Tuesday a “disaster”. Saying that it had been taken “for domestic political purposes”, the diplomat added: “He doesn’t care about the allies. He has no respect.”

https://www.ft.com/content/a51de5fc-52f5-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e23e

I think Netanyahu would disagree.

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42 minutes ago, Haji 2003 said:

Well, they can't.

Russia and China perhaps, but European businesses are too tightly integrated with the U.S.

You mean to say that the European countries are slaves to the will of the US? What a source of pride for the "free people".

Edited by IbnSina

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Just now, IbnSina said:

You mean to say that the European countries are slaves to the will of the US?

Well, it's not just something inside their heads. European banks etc. have faced multimillion-dollar lawsuits for previous violations.

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After Trump’s Iran Decision, Get Ready For Middle Eastern Havoc, Specially In Europe. Yes Europe. #MirMak #Iran #Trump #JCPOA

By. Mir Mohammad Alikhan 

All three parts of my March 24th article have come true. North Korea has agreed to denuclearisation. Trump pulled out of the Iran deal. And oil prices soared since that day and will go up further in my view. But is that all ? No. Absolutely not. 

The implications are far more than just oil and it’s prices. It is an unprecedented act in the history of the world of diplomatic manoeuvres that an act which was co-signed by three European allies of America, France, Germany and The United Kingdom, has been reneged upon. The 2015 JCPOA or the lifting of the sanctions off of Iran in return for certain conditions was a multiparty agreement. Not just between America and Iran. If you are a student of history and diplomatic deals, you would already know that the reason several parties become part of an agreement is because there was a lack of trust to begin with and multi party engagement assures that nobody walks away from what they have agreed upon. 

France, has big stakes in Iran. UK does regular business with the Iranian companies. Germany being an economic giant and an industrialised nation stands to lose billions in exports to Iran. This is not going to sit well with these countries and for any future diplomatic agreements, the trust level between any country or countries and America will vanish into thin air. 

And this pulling out of the agreement will make the Iranian regime an absolute hero in the eyes of the Iranian people. The popularity of the Ayatollahs will sky rocket. They have been saying for decades that America and its allies are not trustworthy. And this proves it. From Khomeini to Khamenei to Roohani to Rafsanjani and even the non Ayatollahs like Banisadr and Ahmedinejad have said the same thing. And as long as Irani leaders have the backing of the Iranian people, they will become aggressive. For two reasons. One that I gave above, the overall public support and two, because what happened on Sunday in the Lebanese elections. Hezbollah swept the elections in Lebanon. Winning more seats than 2009 and Hariri and the party losing 1/3 of its existing seats to Hezbollah. 

A strong Hezbollah means a stronger Iran right next door to Israel. And stronger Iran means a stronger Bashar Al Asad in Syria. And because of Hariri losing its grip on the Lebanese Parliament, it means a weaker Saudi Arabia because Hariri is a Saudi candidate. And a weaker Saudi Arabia near Syria means that the newly formed triangular friendship between Israel, America and the Saudis is no longer that strong. And that makes the Yemenis stronger against the Saudis with the help of Iran. 

Now France, Germany and the UK who had an unofficial policy avoiding making any public statements condemning the acts of Saudis in Yemen will no longer do the same. These three European nations will very soon take out their anger on America by issuing public statements in favour of Yemen. That will create further tensions in the Middle East. 

A war ? I don’t think so. A war of words ? Absolutely. A direct war ? Absolutely not. An increase in intensity of an already existing proxy war of Iran, Saudi, Yemen and Syria. Absolutely yes. Russia will stand with Syria. Syria with Iran. Hezbollah with Syrian officials and against Israel. China will make a policy statement and ask why should they play a role in bringing North Korea to denuclearise when Trump can not deliver his promises and cancel the deals. 

North Korea in my view will play on this Trump move and delay the denuclearisation announcing. Kim Jong Un will meet Trump but will not announce anything regarding a deal. 

The gist of e everything written above is simple. America lost its credibility. And Iran despite of all the sanctions stands much stronger than it was yesterday. Get ready for war of words and a few missiles here and there.

What a wonderful world of deceit, lies and enigmas wrapped in betrayals we live in.

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Is Raheel Shareef Ready To Come Back To Pakistan After The Trump Decision About Iran ? #MirMak #GeneralRaheelShareef #IslamicMilitaryAlliance #JohnBolton #Trump

I know, I know, you must be thinking, what does Raheel Shareef have to do with Donald Trumps' decision about Iran ? Well you are wrong. He has everything to do with it, or eloquently put, he has everything to do with the impacts of the decision because Trump's decision impacts the Middle Eastern situation and that impacts the Syrian conflict and the next thing Trump will demand from Saudi Arabia for going against Iran is Saudi support in Syria for the conflict. 

Yes, this is another assessment of mine that very soon, you will hear demands from the Trump administration that KSA give support to Americas' decision to bring the Syrian conflict to its logical conclusion. And the only thing left for KSA to do is to commit its troops on ground into Syria. KSA has no troops capable enough to fight in a foreign land or in a foreign conflict. So the next best option left is, KSA committing the Islamic Military Alliance troops into Syria, the one headed by General Raheel Shareef. The agenda of Trump is not to support KSA or to go against Iran, in my view the real agenda, ever since John Bolton has joined Trump administration and looking at John Bolton's history over the decades, is to destabilize the Middle Eastern region. It is to create such conflicts amongst the Muslim countries that it gets polarized between Shias and Sunnis, Ajamis and Arabs, Turks and Qataris, and if possible, the world and the Muslims. The best way to accomplish this goal is by doing the following. 

First sell a huge cache of arms and defence equipment worth an unprecedented amount. Like the deal between KSA and America for over $700 billion dollars. Announce it to the world openly, such deals are rarely publicized, to leave no room for the buyer to walk out of and the region to see the military capabilities of the buyer. Cancel a previously signed upon deal (Iran) to absolutely irritate the regional foe of KSA. Draw the foe into a conflict already existing in Syria and engage him at full throttle in the war outside its territory and the territory of the friendly weapons buyer from America. Create a gulf within the gulf states and a war that makes money for America and then ask, the Islamic Military Alliance for support by sending its troops to Syria. 

I would not want to be in Raheel Shareefs' shoes right now. Not at all. If he agrees to remain the head of IMA, he is breaking the promise he has made when he had joined, that IMA will never be used against any Islamic country, directly or indirectly. If he does leave IMA, he not only irritates his employer, KSA, but KSA relations with Pakistan also get effected. 

Another very strange coincidence is happening in Pakistan, extremely strange, some of the same Western Ambassadors who were present in Baghdad, when it broke apart, and in Tripoli, Libya, when it was attacked, are also serving in Islamabad as Ambassadors to Pakistan for their countries. I will not name them here, do some research and you will be astonished. 

So, if Raheel Shareef comes back or stays back is less consequential in the bigger picture than to realize that a fifth generation psychological warfare combined with the conventional military might is coming to the countries in this region, if former is already not present in Pakistan. Whatever the case maybe, remain united. Forget your affiliations, your love, your views, your stances, your sects, your beliefs...and just remember one thing, 

Pakistan is above all of us.

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An important thing to remember, and I'm not entirely sure about US law on this, is that Congress could vote to overrule Trump's decision so, hopefully, they'll prove to be more sane than him. Though, with the state of the Republican Party at the moment...I'm not too hopeful.

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6 hours ago, Khadim uz Zahra said:

An important thing to remember, and I'm not entirely sure about US law on this, is that Congress could vote to overrule Trump's decision so, hopefully, they'll prove to be more sane than him. Though, with the state of the Republican Party at the moment...I'm not too hopeful.

From wikipedia:

Quote

The 2014 elections gave the Republicans control of the Senate (and control of both houses of Congress) for the first time since the 109th Congress. With 248 seats in the House of Representatives and 54 seats in the Senate, this Congress began with the largest Republican majority since the 71st Congress of 1929–1931.

Republicans seem to be coming out in favour of Trump, so regardless of what they feel personally, they'll likely support him.

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This is where we are heading:

Quote

Instead, the EU will have to decide whether to pursue its proposals, originally concocted to persuade Trump to stay in the deal, to negotiate a supplementary agreement with Iran covering its ballistic missile program, its foreign policy interventionism in the Middle East and the controversial sunset clauses in the deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/09/europes-clash-with-trump-over-iran-nuclear-deal-is-a-durability-test

If the Iranians agree to the new agreement, be prepared for later calls for even stricter controls on Iran.

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1 hour ago, Haji 2003 said:

If the Iranians agree to the new agreement, be prepared for later calls for even stricter controls on Iran.

Iran will never accepts a new agreement , currently nobody is in favor of America at Iran .

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1 hour ago, Laayla said:

What was the Sheikh yelling?

He is yelling we burned the (Barjaam)deal.:grin:

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