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In the Name of God بسم الله

how do you imagine the future of iraq ?

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Salam aleykoum,

since im young i always see iraq in war between shia , sunni and kurds and the situation became even worst with isis ...

after the fall of isis in iraq how will be iraq from your point of view ?

Do the killings and terrorist attacks will continue ?

Do the country will be divided in 3 new countries (sunni country, shia country, kurd country) ? 

Or do you think im too pessimist and the country could become peaceful and unificated ?

hope to see the point of view of iraqis in this forum .

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From a Kurdish perspective:

I don't see the situation being resolved anytime soon in regards to the political situation. However I do believe it is certainly plausible that the military solution can be resolved soon. Atleast specifically in regards to Iraq.

In the long term I see Iraq divided atleast in two. Us Kurds are going to support Kurdish independance, we already have a degree of economic dependance in regards to transportation of our oil. However some critics, including within Kurdish nationalist circles deem it to be pointless. Since our pipelines run through Turkey and that would mean Turkey would be able to call alot of shots in regards to an independant Iraqi Kurdistan. 

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4 minutes ago, humanbeing101 said:

From a Kurdish perspective:

I don't see the situation being resolved anytime soon in regards to the political situation. However I do believe it is certainly plausible that the military solution can be resolved soon. Atleast specifically in regards to Iraq.

In the long term I see Iraq divided atleast in two. Us Kurds are going to support Kurdish independance, we already have a degree of economic dependance in regards to transportation of our oil. However some critics, including within Kurdish nationalist circles deem it to be pointless. Since our pipelines run through Turkey and that would mean Turkey would be able to call alot of shots in regards to an independant Iraqi Kurdistan. 

But all the iraqi kurds want independance ? And even if most of the kurds wanted to be independant , do you think the iraqi state will not try to stop that with even military ?

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12 minutes ago, alidu78 said:

But all the iraqi kurds want independance ? And even if most of the kurds wanted to be independant , do you think the iraqi state will not try to stop that with even military ?

I would say an overwhelming majority of Kurds in Iraq want independance. However they are divided in two camps. The ones who want to declare independance immediately with disregard for the current political and economic situation of the Kurdish Regional Government. The second camp want to wait in the hope that it may either be possible to secure an oil pipeline through Iran or through to the Mediterranean sea. 

I don't pay too much attention to Central Iraqi internal politics but if I remember correctly some Iraqi politicans don't really seem to care if Iraqi Kurdistan secedes Iraq. Take what Muqtada Al-Sadr said: http://www.nrttv.com/EN/Details.aspx?Jimare=4217

I think as for a military intervention from the Iraqi military, let's be realistic. It would be a long drawn out war and I doubt the Iraqi army would be able to sustain such a military intervention, both financially and from a military standpoint. I think hypothetically though Iraq would have the support of Iran and Iraqi Kurdistan would have the support of the USA. Though I personally think such a scenario is highly unlikely in regards to war bewteen Peshmerga and the Iraqi army. 

Edited by humanbeing101
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If never iraqi kurdisant take his independance the next wars in middle east will not be for religious reasons but for ethnic reasons . The kurds in syria will want to join iraqi kurdistan and there will have guerilla in syria iran and turkey .

And in iran if kurds take independance azeri , arabs and baloch will also try to do etc 

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I'm no expert, and I know that the situation is knotted and complex in Iraq and Syria - especially with regards to the Kurdish question, moving into the future.

I am really curious about Kurdish-Shia relations - mostly because it's been expressed to me that the Rojava (Kurdish autonomous region) region, is developing into a very effective and inclusive form of governance.

It feels like there's a lot of hope in this - whilst it's not an 'Islamic Nation' in the modern sense - (and who knows, maybe borders and nation states are doing us more harm than good), it does sound like this co-operative and collaborative approach to building a functioning community together, between faiths - is something that Amir Al Mu'mineen might have endorsed?

May my lord, the most merciful and knowledgeable forgive me and enlighten me, if I have said anything here which is false or unjust.
Insha'Allah, we may all be guided to a truthful perspective.

Edited by Hayy ibn Yaqzan
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1 hour ago, humanbeing101 said:

I would say an overwhelming majority of Kurds in Iraq want independance. However they are divided in two camps. The ones who want to declare independance immediately with disregard for the current political and economic situation of the Kurdish Regional Government. The second camp want to wait in the hope that it may either be possible to secure an oil pipeline through Iran or through to the Mediterranean sea. 

I don't pay too much attention to Central Iraqi internal politics but if I remember correctly some Iraqi politicans don't really seem to care if Iraqi Kurdistan secedes Iraq. Take what Muqtada Al-Sadr said: http://www.nrttv.com/EN/Details.aspx?Jimare=4217

I think as for a military intervention from the Iraqi military, let's be realistic. It would be a long drawn out war and I doubt the Iraqi army would be able to sustain such a military intervention, both financially and from a military standpoint. I think hypothetically though Iraq would have the support of Iran and Iraqi Kurdistan would have the support of the USA. Though I personally think such a scenario is highly unlikely in regards to war bewteen Peshmerga and the Iraqi army. 

Why do you want independence? If Kurds get independence, destabilize the Middle East and would be bad for Muslims

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13 minutes ago, alidu78 said:

The question was also do you think the violence will stop after the fall of isis in iraq ?

My friend,

I think that this comes down to a question of what people decide to do, with their time and energy.

Ultimately, a country is just a piece of land,
and a nation is a collection of people and their ideas of how to share what resources they have,
and a state is what happens when the leaders of communities exert their strength to create some kind of order (could be good, could be bad) over a nation.

I hope and pray that the violence will stop. I can't say I know that it will.
I believe that it's more likely that the violence will stop, if people from our generation, and generations to come are able to bridge the gaps between communities, who are carrying anger, and resentment and feelings of hurt, from the past.

People often use the phrase "Education is most important, because it will save us and give us a good future"-
The important factor in that is that education is much wider than just academic discipline, it includes travel, understanding different cultures, being able to communicate effectively and critically analyse events.

I wrote this post in such a rush, please excuse me - there's plenty more to discuss on this matter.

Keep hope, and may you find peace in your heart and your life,
for family, friends and faith,
Insha'Allah.

Edited by Hayy ibn Yaqzan
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13 minutes ago, Ali al-Abdullah said:

Why do you want independence? If Kurds get independence, destabilize the Middle East and would be bad for Muslims

I find it quite strange how proponents who are against an independant Kurdish state always claim "It will de-stabilize the MENA".

Firstly this is a mere hypothesis and there is no evidence to support that. 

Secondly Iraqi Kurdistan already operates like a mini-state to begin with, it has its own government, its own economy(kirkuk oil), it has its own culture, language and military. It is only not a state on paper. The reality is the Central Iraqi government has little power on the ground to impose its will on the KRG. 

Thirdly why is it not permissible that Kurds get an independant state when there are 23 Arabic speaking independant nation states and 5 Turkish speaking states. I think it is only fair Kurds be atleast a chance to vote on the issue in a democratic referendum in regards to this matter. 

Fourthly the middle-east is already destabilized, so it is illogical to make a claim an independant Kurdistan would destabilize it to begin with. I suspect if anything an independant Kurdistan can actually act as a buffer in the region. Peshmerga in Iraq have already been effective against ISIS, along with the YPG forces in Syria. 

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2 minutes ago, humanbeing101 said:

I find it quite strange how proponents who are against an independant Kurdish state always claim "It will de-stabilize the MENA".

Firstly this is a mere hypothesis and there is no evidence to support that. 

Secondly Iraqi Kurdistan already operates like a mini-state to begin with, it has its own government, its own economy(kirkuk oil), it has its own culture, language and military. It is only not a state on paper. The reality is the Central Iraqi government has little power on the ground to impose its will on the KRG. 

Thirdly why is it not permissible that Kurds get an independant state when there are 23 Arabic speaking independant nation states and 5 Turkish speaking states. I think it is only fair Kurds be atleast a chance to vote on the issue in a democratic referendum in regards to this matter. 

Fourthly the middle-east is already destabilized, so it is illogical to make a claim an independant Kurdistan would destabilize it to begin with. I suspect if anything an independant Kurdistan can actually act as a buffer in the region. Peshmerga in Iraq have already been effective against ISIS, along with the YPG forces in Syria. 

The middle east is already destabilized do you want to make it more destabilized? If Kurdistan emerges out of Iran, this would be the worst case. Because Iran is the only currently regional power able to oppose Israel, America. And this might be why Israel and America support Kurdistan.

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37 minutes ago, Hayy ibn Yaqzan said:

I'm no expert, and I know that the situation is knotted and complex in Iraq and Syria - especially with regards to the Kurdish question, moving into the future.

I am really curious about Kurdish-Shia relations - mostly because it's been expressed to me that the Rojava (Kurdish autonomous region) region, is developing into a very effective and inclusive form of governance.

It feels like there's a lot of hope in this - whilst it's not an 'Islamic Nation' in the modern sense - (and who knows, maybe borders and nation states are doing us more harm than good), it does sound like this co-operative and collaborative approach to building a functioning community together, between faiths - is something that Amir Al Mu'mineen might have endorsed?

May my lord, the most merciful and knowledgeable forgive me and enlighten me, if I have said anything here which is false or unjust.
Insha'Allah, we may all be guided to a truthful perspective.

I think you are right.

However to clarify there are around 40 million Kurds, 4 to 6 million of which as Faylis(a Kurdish clan who are predominantly Shia). That makes 10-15% of Kurds shia. I would say Kurdish nationalism in the shia Kurdish areas have made some encroachments over the past few years. I think mainly this is due to unemployment in places like Kirmanshan and Ilam. I myself personally know Kurdish fighters in Peshmerga who are shia Kurds from Kirmanshan and Ilam. 

Anyway as for relations with Iraqi Kurdistan and Iran, I think it is partially dependant upon Barzani. Barzani is known by the Kurdish opposition groups, namely the PUK to be pro-Turkey. He has had dealings with Erdogan. Though we Kurds aren't all supporters of Barzani, since technically he isn't the legal president anymore as he has extended his mandate unlawfully according to the KRG. 

Yeh Iraqi Kurdistan will be a secular state, which I prefer. Since there are some Salafis in Iraqi Kurdistan, although Asayish(Kurdish security forces) monitor them. 

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Just now, Ali al-Abdullah said:

The middle east is already destabilized do you want to make it more destabilized? If Kurdistan emerges out of Iran, this would be the worst case. Because Iran is the only currently regional power able to oppose Israel, America. And this might be why Israel and America support Kurdistan.

I have yet to see any proof brother that it would. I'm not proposing Kurdistan becomes independant immediately or anytime soon. I'm only really referring to Iraqi Kurdistan, the KRG has no love for ISIS. It will maintain good relations with both Turkey and Iran.

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3 minutes ago, humanbeing101 said:

I have yet to see any proof brother that it would. I'm not proposing Kurdistan becomes independant immediately or anytime soon. I'm only really referring to Iraqi Kurdistan, the KRG has no love for ISIS. It will maintain good relations with both Turkey and Iran.

Thats good. And  I don't like Erdogan.

Edited by Ali al-Abdullah
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15 hours ago, humanbeing101 said:

I would say an overwhelming majority of Kurds in Iraq want independance. However they are divided in two camps. The ones who want to declare independance immediately with disregard for the current political and economic situation of the Kurdish Regional Government. The second camp want to wait in the hope that it may either be possible to secure an oil pipeline through Iran or through to the Mediterranean sea. 

I don't pay too much attention to Central Iraqi internal politics but if I remember correctly some Iraqi politicans don't really seem to care if Iraqi Kurdistan secedes Iraq. Take what Muqtada Al-Sadr said: http://www.nrttv.com/EN/Details.aspx?Jimare=4217

I think as for a military intervention from the Iraqi military, let's be realistic. It would be a long drawn out war and I doubt the Iraqi army would be able to sustain such a military intervention, both financially and from a military standpoint. I think hypothetically though Iraq would have the support of Iran and Iraqi Kurdistan would have the support of the USA. Though I personally think such a scenario is highly unlikely in regards to war bewteen Peshmerga and the Iraqi army. 

If the Kurds have enough resource to maintain their people and country and have a good leaders and government system, why not. I mean it is better them to get independence than sticking in Iraq that is nothing but war land. 

Quote

Secondly Iraqi Kurdistan already operates like a mini-state to begin with, it has its own government, its own economy(kirkuk oil), it has its own culture, language and military. It is only not a state on paper. The reality is the Central Iraqi government has little power on the ground to impose its will on the KRG. 

Do you think Kirkuk oil is enough? I understand if it is meant for provisionally, but for long run it is not good idea. 

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@Dhulfikar  The only concern I have is that since Syrian Kurds in Minbij have made advances and liberated the city from ISIS. I fear Turkey is planning a military invasion on Syrian Kurdistan. Although Erdogan in the past has already made threats regarding an invasion on Syrian Kurdistan. I think he fears if the Kurds in Syria are successful, then Turkish Kurds would rise up and revolt.  If you notice the map, the Afrin Kurdish canton is close to connectining to the main Kurdish syrian canton. Turkey won't allow that, since it will ensure it cannot funnel weapons to "moderate" rebels. Syrian%2C_Iraqi%2C_and_Lebanese_insurgen

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4 hours ago, humanbeing101 said:

@Dhulfikar  Yeh another economic industry would need to be established in the long run. I don't want iraqi Kurdistan to turn out to be another Dubai. 

If iraqi kurdistan become independant there is more chance that kurdistan become an secular state than an islamic state isnt it ?

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25 minutes ago, alidu78 said:

If iraqi kurdistan become independant there is more chance that kurdistan become an secular state than an islamic state isnt it ?

Yeh that is correct. The Islamist part does draw some support but it is really small. If you look at the Kurdish parliment size and their seats to compare https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Islamic_Union

 

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16 minutes ago, humanbeing101 said:

Yeh that is correct. The Islamist part does draw some support but it is really small. If you look at the Kurdish parliment size and their seats to compare https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Islamic_Union

 

In general kurds look more secular than arabs for exemple .

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20 minutes ago, alidu78 said:

In general kurds look more secular than arabs for exemple .

you raise a really astute point @alidu78; which is pointing to the fact that Arabs & Kurds are ethno-cultural groups, like Persians, or Bengalis, or Polyesians - maybe we could say unlike "Europeans" or "Africans" or "Russians" which are at this point in history, still more of a conglomerate mix of various subcultures.

This is my humble, un-academic view - but I feel like it holds true for the purpose of the analogy.

This means that it might be really tempting, and simple, to characterise Kurds as Secular and Arabs as Religiously inclined. There is powerful imagery and a long sacred history to reinforce these ideas. However it really does seem like within both groups, is a really strong potential for both Secularity and Religion. Groups within both camps could swing both ways - and even bridge differences between their ethno-cultural practices, with tools like Religion, or Science, or Art or even (if done right) Politics - which seems to be what the Socialist-Secular-but-Inclusive Kurdish Rojavans seem to be doing well right now.

Still, could mean that many Religious Kurds and Secular Arabs may have their differences, or even find a good peace in the future.

WaSalaam,

Apologies for the convoluted path I took here - navigating MENA ideals is beautiful, fascinating, and like a labyrinth - it's just such a rich garden, with various forms.

Edited by Hayy ibn Yaqzan
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@Hayy ibn Yaqzan I agree with your observation. 

I have to say from my personal experience and obersvations living and travelling in Iraqi and Iranian Kurdistan. I've noticed that even religious Kurds be it Shia or Sunni tend to be secular orientated. Also as you rightly pointed out the Kurdish identity is an ethnic identity. It is true in the past Kurds have never been united under the name "Kurd". However we still have a common culture that gives us that uniting identity. Even though there are 4 or 5 Kurdish major sub-groups: Kurmanji, Sorani, Hewrami, Zazaki, Badhini and Feyli. 

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