Ebola [OFFICIAL THREAD]

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

The "Predictions"

 

Late last Summer, there were predictions made about the number of Ebola deaths we would have by January in West Africa only:

 

From this thread, we had:

 

post 87; WHO : "could exceed 20,000 over the course of the disease"

 

post 104; {correction, it is sciencemag.org} the most dire model predicted 100,000 by 01Dec12

 

post 117; we can see 200 per day

 

post 133; CDC predicted 500,000 "by the end of January" 2015

 

post 137; UN: "tens of thousands by end of the year"

 

There was also the "5 million" prediction (out of Germany) which was condemned by institutions

 

post138; I asked: "Which is it? What will it be?"

 

Compiling from WHO SITREP at regular intervals for laboratory Confirmed deaths:

 

29Aug14 for Jan-25Aug:       59

 

12Sept14 as of 07Sept:     1374

 

26Sept14 as of 23Sept:     1830

 

10Oct14  as of 07Oct:        2423

 

25Oct14  as of 22Oct:        2981

 

07Nov14  as of 04Nov:       1771 + Liberia undergoing reclassification, reporting shows more Ebola deaths than Ebola cases

 

21Nov14  as of 18Nov:       2056 + L...

 

17Dec14  as of 14Dec        3138 + L...

 

07Jan15  as of  ?                4076 + L...

 

 

 

 

For Confirmed, Probable and Suspected deaths:  8,220

 

 

 

"Roughly" handling the numbers for the confirmed deaths:

 

For the 3 rates before the "Liberian qualifier"  of 45days, the deaths are about 35.7 per day

 

For the rate after, for 61 days, the deaths are 37.7 per day.

Edited January 8, 2015 by hasanhh

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

12January2015, WHO SlTREP

 

21,171 cases

 

8,371 deaths

 

No other changes.

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

14Jan15: WHO SlTREP

 

21,261 cases

 

8,414 deaths

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Fri, 16Jan15 WHOSlTREP

 

21,373 cases

 

8,465 deaths

 

Thursday, 15Jan15, BBC News America: the  rates are slowing; there is still no known pregnancy case surviving.

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

NBC News, Sun 18Jan15, 1740EST "Mali gov't declares country Ebola free"

 

---it has been 42 days since the last case.

 

Ahamduallah

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Wed, 21Jan15 WHO SlTREP:

 

21,689 cases

 

8,626 deaths

[hasanhh]

Mon,26Jan15 WHO SlTREP

 

21,924 cases

 

8,737 deaths

 

Infection rates are decreasing. Mali is now "ebola free" with no new cases for 42+ days

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Wed,28Jan15 WHO SlTREP:

 

22,057 cases

 

8,795 deaths

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Thurs,29Jan15 WHO announced that combating the Ebola outbreak is entering "the end game" with less than 100 new cases this past week.

---PBS News Hour said this is the lowest rate since June2014.

 

but....

 

bionews.org.uk, 26January2015, "Ebola mutations threaten drug development", by Rhys Baker

---- from USAMRIID

--- some drug developments maybe already ineffective

--drug development has started and Ebola has changed since these programs began

- there are currently 600+ mutations known  (there where 395 known at the end of August2014 --ed.)

 

Note: there were 7 mutations from Outbreak 1976 to Outbreak 1996

--also, transmission rates may change by changes in general susceptibility.

 

:cry:

for more info search "Ebola + mutatiions"

Edited January 30, 2015 by hasanhh

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Mon, 02Feb15   WHO SlTREP:

 

22,334 cases

 

8,921 deaths

 

 

CBSMarke[Edited Out]ch, 02Feb15, 1208EST, "Tiny biotech..."

and several other sources

 

--- working with USAMRllD, Ampligen developed by Hemispherix Bio-Parma (HEB) has tested 100% effect in Ebola infected rats

 

-- Ampligen is the commercial name, name is Rintatolimod

 

- Ampligen is a double-stranded RNA drug  treatment that identifies threats before the body's own immune system; it also promotes healing of the liver in some circumstances --the liver being where Ebola "hides" on initial infection (posts 174, 178#3)

Edited February 2, 2015 by hasanhh

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Quarantine

 

app.com, Ashley Park Press, 02Feb15, 1430EST; "Ebola Quarantine coming to Fort Monmouth", by Russ Zimmer

 

------ "Travelers to Newark('s) Liberty International Airport from West Africa who have been exposed to the deadly Ebola virus could be housed at Fort Monmouth under "confidential" contingency plans discussed by government officials."

 

----- New Jersey Department of Human Services "confirmed they have a six month agreement" but gave no specifics

 

---- Eatontown Major Dennis Connelly said Monday (the 2nd, -ed.) no one was "happy" with this agreement

 

--- "Oceanport Major Michael Mahon said he was "deeply disappointed" that the state chose the fort as a quarantine location."

 

-- Fort Monmouth is a decommissioned army signal base

 

- Fort Monmouth is "to take patients in the event that the quarantine at Hagedom Psychiatric Hospital in Hunterdom County hits capacity.

 

Opine: this last part reads like New Jersey thinks of mental patients as expendable. Kinda neo-Nazi, ain't it?

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Wed, 04Feb15  WHO SlTREP:

 

22,460 case

 

8,966 deaths

 

:cry: 1] Reuters via Yahoo News, 04Feb15, "Free from Ebola, survivors complain of new syndrome", by Emma Fargo and James Giehyoue

------- called PES, post-Ebola Syndrome

------ 60% of Ebola victims died from shock or organ failure

 

----- eye pressure increase with redness

---- other symptoms of PES include joint pain, hair loss, memory loss, and anxiety attacks; it also appears "declining health" sets in

--- some survivors go blind

-- poor medical records make separating new conditions from pre-existing conditions

- also, an auto-immune response is triggered

 

Contradictory Reports:

 

2] the Guardian, 03Feb15 1158EST, "Ebola drug trial in Liberia halted after fall in cases"

 

---- the trial company Chimerix working with Medicins sans Frontieres stopped the trial because there were only 4 new cases (in Liberia) in the past week

--- this is a drug produced by Glaxo-Smith-Kline

 

3] New York Times, 04Feb15, "Ebola Drug Trial Has Encouraging Results, and Questions Follow", by Sheri Fink

 

----- in West Africa, there were 124 new cases in the past week

---- an influenza drug treatment produced in Japan (approved last year)

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Fri,06Feb15 WHO SlTREP

 

22,525 cases

 

9,004 deaths

 

Still no change in difficulties sorting and compiling Liberian record discrepancies.

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

As of 1640EST, WHO SlTREP is not "up" yet.

 

Here is some info on P-ES - PES from general news sources. Research and studies are sorely lacking according to a doctor interviewed.

 

1] World Health Organization, Oct2014, " Sierra Leone: Helping the Ebola survivors turn the page"

----- Ebola survivors have a host of problems

---- social:  are called witches for surviving

---- health: vision impairments and blindness, joint pain, and extreme fatigue

 

2] ebola.org.za, 04Nov14, "Post-Ebola Syndrome"

----- severe headaches as "during early symptoms" for up to 18 months afterwards

---- "stigma" for surviving

 

3] ebolastrain.com, www.ebolastrain.com/?p=1638, about Oct2014, " 'Post-Ebola Syndrome' Persists After Virus ls Cured, Doctor Says"

----- in addition to the above, these are added:

-- chest pain

--symptoms are consistent with previous outbreaks

-- vision problem may be related to the virus attacking the eyes' blood vessels

 

4] other articles have included "memory loss"

[lover]

SARS, EBOLA, and various viruses have effects on the yearly Hajj Pilgrimage.

 

23/07/2013

Health officials have advised elderly Muslims not to take part in the annual pilgrimage to Mecca because of the new Sars-like virus. Pregnant women, children under the age of 12 or people who suffer from chronic illnesses should also abstain from performing the Hajj later this year.

 

07/08/2014

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Health has announced that individuals from Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia, where the Ebola virus is most prevalent, are not allowed to obtain visas in order to go on the Hajj or Umrah (Islamic Pilgrimage to Mecca).

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

To get up to date:

 

Mon,09Feb15 WHO SlTREP:      22,828 cases           9152 deaths

 

Wed,11Feb15 WHO SlTREP:      22,859 cases           9162 deaths

 

 

News Reports: the US is preparing to return troops deployed to Ebola Areas.

 

Opine: Looks like any support services for PES is being ignored.

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Friday the 13th, February 2015; WHO SlTREP:

 

22,999 cases

 

9,253 deaths

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Mon,16Feb15 WHO SITREP

 

23,182 cases

 

9,353 deaths

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Some News Updates:

 

1] AFP -Conarchy via YahooNews, 15Feb15, "Ebola-hit nations pledge to eradicate virus in 60 days", by Mouctar Bah

------ by mid-April

----- the pledge was made after day long talks by Alpha Cowde (Republic of Guinea) , Ellen Sirleaf (Liberia) and Emest Bai Koroma (Sierra Leone) in a joint declaration

-- the IMF announced 10 days previously a $100 million in debt relief and is preparing "$160 million in concession loans"

 

2] USA Today, 15Feb15, "Schools to re-open in Liberia, but Ebola concerns remain"

------ concerns because schools were used a hospices (dying centers)

----  schools smell of chlorine

 

3] KETV -Omaha, 15Feb15, "Possible Ebola exposure case being monitored in Omaha"

 

see post 222; 4] newjersey.com, 15Feb15, "No Ebola patients will be treated at Fort Monmouth, state says"

 

5] New York Times, 11Feb15, "Withdrawing troops, Obama calls for vigilance on Ebola"

------ troops "coming home" but 100 will remain in West Africa for "eradication" efforts

Edited February 18, 2015 by hasanhh

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

18Feb15 WHO SlTREP:

 

23,218 cases

 

9,365 deaths

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Mon,23Feb15 WHO SITREP;

 

23,539 cases

 

9,541 deaths

 

News note:

 

Washington Post, 19Feb15, "Limited airborne transmission of Ebola 'very likely', a new analysis  says"

--this is a study done by a previously "controversial' researcher, Michael T. Osternholm, which says "limited transmission" via "minuscule droplets" is likely.

Opine: this is discussed above as a near-to-patient hazard, not a aerial transmission threat like measles. What makes this research group "controversial" is their reporting style may induce panic.

Edited February 24, 2015 by hasanhh

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

25Feb15, WHO SITREP

 

23,694 cases

 

9,589 deaths

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Fri,27Feb15 WHO SlTREP

 

23,825 cases

 

9,660 deaths

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

DeutscheWelle, 01March2015, "Sierra Leone: Ebola Scare for Vice President"

 

---- Sierra Leone has had a recent spike in Ebola cases, and the VP's bodyguard caught it.

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Mon,03March15, WHO SlTREP

 

23,913 cases

 

9,714 deaths

 

 

NBC NEWS, 03March15, "The Next Ebola Zone: Report finds 28 High-Risk Countries", by Maggie Fox

 

--- citing a report from "Save the Children", 28 countries, mostly in Africa, have "near non-existent health care systems".

 

-- Afghanistan is one non-African country

 

opine: appears "next Ebola Zone" is used as a headline grabber to illustrate the extremely poor health care in a fourth of the World's countries.

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Sorry, wrong date of week above.

 

Wed, 04March15 WHO SITREP

 

23,934 cases

 

9,792 deaths

[hasanhh]

PBS News Hour, Thurs, 05March15,

 

The "last known Ebola patient in Liberia" left the hospital.

 

Inshallah

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Fri,06March15 WHO SlTREP:

 

29,014 cases

 

9,840 deaths

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Mon,09March2015 WHO SlTREP

 

24,202 cases

 

9,936 deaths

 

Ahamduallah, we will top 10,000 views before 10,000 deaths (we are now 9,990 views)

 

Some News:

 

1] Liberia has closed its crematorium after discharging its last Ebola patient.

 

2] Global News, The Canadian Press, 06March15, "Canadian Ebola vaccine being put to the test", by Helen Branswell

---- the test to start in Guinea...

--- while USCDC tests another vaccine(with NewLinks Genetics) in Sierra Leone

-- in Liberia, the GSK vaccine will also be tested (with the NewLink Genetics trials)

 

3] other news says the Canadian vaccine is "engineered" from one  (of the 7) proteins found in Ebola

Edited March 9, 2015 by hasanhh

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Unfortunately, we have a jump in the otherwise declining death rate.

3 dates:

 

WHO SITREPs

 

Wed,11March15            24,247 cases          9,961 deaths

 

Thurs, 12March15         24,350 cases         10,004 deaths

 

Friday the 13th              24,509 cases         10,096 deaths

 

The news has been reporting a "spike" in Sierra Leone deaths.

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Monday, 16March15, WHO SlTREP:

 

24,597 cases

 

10,144 deaths

 

10 Exposure cases flown into the USA. One is "critical" at the NIH Hospital; another is "monitored" with symptoms at Omaha.

 

The remaining 8 are home monitoring for now.

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

The WHO has changed its format today, the 18th, ...

 

WHO SlTREPs

 

Tues, 17March15        24,666 cases     10,179 deaths

 

Wed,  18March15        24,701 cases     10,194 deaths

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

There has been a reported "spike" in E cases in Sierra Leone.

 

The Guardian, 19March15, "Ebola: Sierra Leone plans second lockdown to stem epidemic"

 

---- 2.5million to be confined for 3 days from 27 to 29 March

 

--- Sierra Leone's death toll from Ebola is about 3,700

 

-- 300+ healthcare workers in Sierra Leone have been infected

 

- Liberia has had  "no new confirmed case for the third consecutive week" 

[hasanhh]

(salam)

 

Reuters,Mon23March15, "A year after Ebola discovered, relapses seen in fight to end it", by Emma Farge

 

--- 3 doctors in Guinea were infected last week from not following proceedure

 

-- a "slackening" of attitudes is threatening the drive to end the epidemic.

[estoc]

،السلام عليكم

 

The MSF released a report entitled "Pushed to the Limit and Beyond" analyzing this Ebola outbreak, internal challenges with it, and the global response to it over the past year:

http://www.msf.org/sites/msf.org/files/msf1yearebolareport_en_230315.pdf