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In the Name of God بسم الله

Change In Pakistan ?

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Big things are happening in Pakistan. Is the game over for PPP's government ? Tahir ul Qadri's long march and revolutionary rhetoric, coupled with public anger and irritation, had cornered the government. With the added failure of Balochistan's government, the situation had turned as precarious as ever.

Now the Supreme Court has ordered the arrest of the Prime Minister itself, according to TV reports. Are elections even a possiblility ? Are the much talked about stories of another coup true ? Are we in for an implementation of the "Bangladeshi model" or a technocratic government ?

Is this the beginning of the end for our useless but much touted-about democracy ? Or will Zardari again maneuver around another obstacle, with a new prime minister.

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Damn, just saw the news.

Hm things are quite unpredictable from here, but I am guessing people are not just thinking army as an alternative to the current predicament. Tahir ul Qadri, whatever you may want to say about him has put democracy in perspective. The right way to go about things is through peaceful demonstration and putting pressure on the establishment to ring in some institutional changes.

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Things are just as blurry down here too. No one is sure of what is going to happen next. Perhaps, the PM just might avoid getting arrested, or may be the Army might step in, again on the pretext of 'doctrine of necessity'.

For institutional changes to take place you need to change the ones incharge. We have been more or less governed by the same socio-economic group - a nexus of feudal lords/political dynasties, military generals and business magnates. Unless you shuffle the ruling elite and bring those who represent the working class up, lasting institutional changes are not possible.

We can't be sure of what Qadri is up to. He may simply be a pawn of the military establishment, or he may be an independent (or foreign) actor, doing his masters a favour.

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For institutional changes to take place you need to change the ones incharge. We have been more or less governed by the same socio-economic group - a nexus of feudal lords/political dynasties, military generals and business magnates. Unless you shuffle the ruling elite and bring those who represent the working class up, lasting institutional changes are not possible.

We can't be sure of what Qadri is up to. He may simply be a pawn of the military establishment, or he may be an independent (or foreign) actor, doing his masters a favour.

Well of course, institutional reform takes time, but you have to start somewhere. As corrupt as the establishment maybe, it generally has to respond to public pressure if it is even remotely organized and well directed, we see this all the time. I doubt there is any serious working class leadership present in Pakistan, but maybe I am wrong? If they are present, now would be the best time to take advantage of the general and somewhat unique sentiment gripping the country.

Edited by Mutah_King
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What about Black Water connection ?---or these just are rumours --?

My mum believes that these sectarian killings are being done by Black Water. She thinks that they want to wage a civil war and initiate a Shia Sunni massacre here in Pakistan. She might be true or might not be true. We all want to look at the brighter side of the picture.

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If PPP government has to go, it won't go by its own volition. So they won't resign.

If they are made to go, the opposing forces will inadvertently create a martyr out of them, which will eventually benefit PPP in the upcoming election.

Let's identity political groupings to get an idea of what's happening. There are four parties. 1) Military that is currently relying on MQM and Qadri to play its political chess game, 2) Sharif bros and the politicised Supreme Court are in cahoots 3) Imran Khan's PTI, which has lost its repute with the military, and finally, 4) The government aka Zardari camp.

So what will come out of it: There will be negotiations and more negotiations and the elections will be brought forward a bit. A caretaker government will be installed a little earlier. This is all happening to weaken PPP prior to elections. This is all drama not a revolution.

Army will not take over. They won't do that. They can't afford to do that.

Besides, whoever thinks this bhainga Judge is acting by the law hasn't got their wits about them. He's playing a game of vendetta. He waited for the right time to strike the government. Sitting Prime Minister cannot be legally arrested anyway. He has immunity. First they need to make him go constitutionally and then arrest him. So it depends on Zardari's next move. And Zardari, being the shrewdest of them all, will find a way round it.

Edited by Marbles
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So what will come out of it: There will be negotiations and more negotiations and the elections will be brought forward a bit. A caretaker government will be installed a little earlier. This is all happening to weaken PPP prior to elections. This is all drama not a revolution.

There you go friends. Just as I predicted two days ago. Read below:

The government agreed with the cleric to dissolve the National Assembly before its term ends in mid-March, giving 90 days until elections are held, according to the "Islamabad Long March Declaration."

The government also agreed that the caretaker administration, which normally precedes elections, would be chosen in consultation with all parties.

They also agreed that the treasury benches in complete consensus with Qadri’s party will propose the names of two honest and impartial people for the appointment of caretaker prime minister.

Read full report HERE

Anybody who was waiting for something else to happen clearly hadn't a faintest clue about the workings of Pakistani politics.

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^

So I got to read the so called Islamabad Long March Declaration in fine detail and I can safely say that it is arguably the most useless agreement ever to be signed in the annals of Pakistani history.

Let's look at the initial demands and the agreement:

Qadri demanded for assemblies to be dissolved with immediate effect and new elections to be held. He also wanted to dismiss current Electoral Commission and install "independent" people. Meanwhile he demanded a caretaker government of his choosing to oversee the whole affair.

None of the demands were met.

The tenure of current government ends on 16 March 2013. Then you have 60 days to hold new elections. The constitution says that if assemblies are dissolved even a day earlier, it gives an extension of 30 more days to work out the differences, which means total 90 days to hold new elections from the date of dissolution.

Now, the government has agreed only to dissolve assemblies prior to the end of its tenure, It could be a day before. I think they will dissolve it only a couple of weeks before the end of tenure to "honour" the agreement. With that, you'll have an extra month to hold new elections (refer to constitutional rule above). So, in effect, the elections will be delayed somehow. Here, the government has actually tricked Qadri into shooting on his own foot.

The Election Commission has stayed. And there is a promise to chose caretaker government "with consultation from all parties" aka on whoever Qadri agrees. This is only a promise so far. Details will be hammered out later. So the government gave itself time and room to trick Qadri on this front too.

Now,

Whoever was backing Qadri, the aim was to create enough confusion on the streets from Lahore to Islamabad so that the government would do something foolish (recall repeated Lal Masjid reference of Qadri). If that had happened, the government would further discredit itself and it would had no choice but to resign and install a caretaker setup. The plan then was to prolong the caretaker setup as much as possible and weaken PPP during the process.

It clearly didn't work. Zardari and Co held their nerves and maneuvered it quite skillfully. Come to think of it, the Long March has been a clear victory of the PPP.

Sad? Yes. True? Yes.

Edited by Marbles
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salaam, let's not get fooled. tahir ul qadri is a stooge. please read below.

Moderate Muslims

By Salina Khan

http://theperfection...te-muslims.html

I-spy-Tahir-Qadri became a popular car game during our stay in Pakistan last month when posters of the Islamic scholar suddenly cropped up all over the city of Lahore.

"There he is!" my daughters, who'd seen him plenty lecturing on TV at my parents' place, would cry out after spotting one of the thousands of banners tacked behind rikshaws, plastered on billboards or hung from walls to announce the return of Qadri, a lawyer, politician and scholar. He had hitherto been in self-imposed exile in Canada for seven years after receiving death threats from terrorists who he had condemned.

Qadri is the latest religious figure to enter the political scene in the Muslim world ahead of elections. Like their compatriots in other countries, the Pakistani people are awakening to a newfound desire for self-determination, with many turning to Islam anew to help create a peaceful and just society, one finally free from Western control and its accompanying government tyranny and corruption, rampant poverty, out-of-control terrorism and shortages in public utilities, such as gas, electricity, and water.

But, Muslims, beware: What you see is not always what you get!

The fact is, imperialists who have been making fat profits from the natural and labor resources of Muslim lands for centuries are not going to go away that easy.

In fact, they are two steps ahead.

Aware for years of renewed interest in the political dimensions of Islam (victories of the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, the Islamic Salvation Front in Algerian elections in 1991 and Hamas at the polls in Palestine in 2006), imperialist countries like the United States have been cultivating relationships around the globe with "moderate Muslims" (to replace the historic role of dictators) as those who "advance U.S. interests and values abroad," according to the 2007 Rand report entitled Building Moderate Muslim Networks. Indeed, moderates have risen to prominence in countries like Turkey, Malaysia, Egypt and now Pakistan.

God: "These are the people who buy the life of this world at the price of the Hereafter: their penalty shall not be lightened nor shall they be helped." (Quran 2:86)

"The problem with us Muslims is we are so emotional when it comes to the name Islam so any one, any party that has Islam in it, it's like masha Allah, we have to go with it," observed Hesham Tallawi, TV host of Current Issues, last month. "No, some people are using the name Islam because it sells...in many Arab and Muslim countries."

These moderate Muslims are being plucked from academia, clergy, community activist circles, women's groups and the journalism profession. After "ensuring that their activities converge with long-term U.S. strategic goals," they are funded and channeled into leadership positions in Muslim countries to help sustain imperialism, capitalism and globalization through the spread of "liberal Western democracy" They must espouse nonsectarian legal codes and modern interpetations of women's rights while at the same time demonstrate "opposition to concepts of the Islamic state" in the form implemented in Iran, the report says.

"I am not in favor of a theocracy," Qadri, who is founder of the international NGO Minhaj-ul-Quran and supported a military coup by Pakistan's Gen. Pervez Musharraf in 1999, told a reporter from Britain's Channel 4 News on January 16. "I am in favor of democracy and constitutionalism."

While Qadri's sudden and well-funded catapult into Pakistan's political arena (much like previous Western-backed velvet or color revolutions around the world) sends alarm bells ringing, his repeated praise of European "democracies" during his long march and his reluctance to criticize the decades-long U.S. role in the destabalization of Pakistan (no mention of historical Western support and funding of extremist groups now terrorizing Pakistan in his 450-page Fatwa on Terrorism and Suicide Bombings) is telling.

This is what he was quoted as saying in the New York Times this week: “I can’t say that Pakistan will become America or Canada in a couple of years. But we want a reflection of America, to put the process on track.”

Muslims struggling for Islamic self-determination must be careful of dubious characters in religious trappings, as history shows such figures have duped Muslims in the past, misleading them just as they approached the mouth of victory.

During the Battle of Siffin, Ali, husband of Fatima (one of the four perfect women of all times), nearly defeated the army of Muawiya until Muawiya's soldiers hoisted copies of the Quran on their spears as a last resort.

When Abdullah ibn Abbas saw this, he commented: "The battle is over; the treachery has begun."

Thank God, Qadri wasn't the only scholar who stole the limelight this week.

A peaceful, indigenous movement for social justice under the banner of Islam (and not "democracy") emerged on the global political scene from within Pakistan under the leadership of a lesser-known cleric by the name of Raja Nasir Abbas. He grabbed the hearts and minds of people all over the world when he refused to bury the bodies of nearly 100 people--martyred in last week's bombings in the city of Quetta--as a protest against the continued terrorism and targeted killings of Shiites in Pakistan.

This "Lion of Pakistan," as he is now affectionately being called, organized a sit-in (duplicated in cities around the world in sympathy and support) to demand that incompetent government officials be fired and security promised.

Balochistan's provincial government was dismissed Monday.

On Thursday Qadri called off his protests after the federal government agreed to give his movement a say in appointing a caretaker prime minister ahead of elections later this year. The settlement did not, however, force the immediate resignation of the thoroughly corrupt President Asif Zardari and his officials.

Instead, Qadri and Zardari's information minister Qamar Zaman Kaira embraced in front of the crowd and declared the agreement "a victory for democracy."

Indeed, as Pakistani poet Allama Iqbal wrote:

Ilfaaz-o-maani main tafawat nahin lekin

Mullah ki azan aur hai, Mujahid ki azan aur

Parwaaz hai dono ki issi aik fiza main

Girgis ka jahan aur hai, Shaheen ka jahan aur

There is not much difference in their words and meanings

But the call of a mullah (or pseudo-scholar) is different, the call of a mujahid (or true Muslim who struggles in the way of God) is different,

The flight of both is in the same sky

Yet the world of the vulture is not like the world of the falco

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