Iran Sanctions - Unprecedented Impact.

[Al-Mufeed]

(bismillah)

(salam)

The sanctions on Iran are really taking their toll. From speaking to friends and relatives in Iran - the general cost of living and the economic damage caused by all the outside factors is really making it difficult for the average Iranian.

I am going to quote some of the following Information from AIPAC (American Israeli Public Affairs Committee) - They have the most comprehensive summary of the sanctions bill that was recently passed - as well as the damage its having on Iran (which is accurate actually) - On a side note AIPAC is the main pusher of the most recent Sanctions Bill against Iran.

http://www.aipac.org...F-2041719CF4F3}

Both the House and Senate on August 1 overwhelmingly passed the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 (H.R. 1905), which would enshrine in law that it is U.S. policy to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, escalate the level of sanctions against the regime’s human rights violators, and sharply tighten the enforcement of existing sanctions law. The House passed the measure by a vote of 421-6, while the Senate approved the bill by unanimous consent. President Obama signed the bill into law on August 10.

The measure is based on legislation already overwhelmingly passed by the House and Senate. The legislation was spearheaded by in the House by Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and Ranking Member Howard Berman (D-CA) and in the Senate by Banking Committee Chairman Tim Johnson (D-SD) and Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL).

What is in the bill?

• It subjects virtually all of Iran’s energy, financial and transportation sectors to U.S. sanctions.

• Companies conducting business in these industries would face a choice between continuing to do business with Iran and losing access to the United States.

• The bill expands the sanctions against those who are aiding the human rights abuses in Syria.

• Sanctions are mandated on anyone providing Iran goods, services and/or technology that would contribute materially to the ability of Tehran to acquire or develop chemical, biological or nuclear weapons as well as destabilizing numbers and types of advanced conventional weapons.

• U.S. persons are prohibited from virtually all transactions related to Iran with certain exceptions, notably for food, medicine and informational materials.

August 2012

Iran Bill Imposes Most Comprehensive Sanctions Ever

The Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012, when coupled with existing

sanctions legislation, represents the strongest set of sanctions to isolate any country in the world

during peacetime. With the measure signed into law on August 10 by President Obama, virtually all of Iran’s energy, financial, and transportation sectors would be subject to U.S. sanctions. Companies conducting business in these industries would face the possibility of losing access to U.S. markets.

Most importantly, the law prohibits the repatriation to Iran any revenue it receives from the sale of its

oil, robbing Iran of 80 percent of its hard currency earnings and 50 percent of the funding for its

national budget.

The legislation was introduced in the Senate by Banking Committee Chairman Tim Johnson (D-SD)

and Ranking Member Richard Shelby (R-AL) and in the House by Foreign Affairs Committee Chair

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) and Ranking Member Howard Berman (D-CA).

Below are the key areas targeted by U.S. sanctions:

Energy

With the provisions of this law joined to existing law, virtually every aspect of Iran’s energy sector—

the lifeblood of its economy—will be subject to sanctions. Iran’s energy sector is responsible for more than a quarter of Iran’s GDP, and revenue from oil exports makes up more than half of the

government’s annual budget. U.S. sanctions have already deprived Iran of tens of billions of dollars in investments and reduced Iran’s oil exports by 60 percent, or approximately $40 billion a year.

Sanctions would now be imposed on anyone who:

 Invests in Iran’s petroleum, petrochemical, or natural gas sector.

 Provides goods, services, infrastructure, or technology to Iran’s oil, natural gas and

petrochemical sectors.

 Provides refined petroleum products to Iran.

 Insures or re-insures investments in Iran's oil sector.

 Engages in joint energy ventures with Iran, in Iran and abroad.

 Provides insurance or re-insurance to the National Iranian Oil Company or the National

Iranian Tanker Company.

 Helps Iran evade energy sanctions, including through such activities as masking the origin of

oil and disguising the ownership of oil tankers.

 Sells, leases, or otherwise provides tankers to Iran.

 Buys Iranian crude oil unless the president determines that the purchaser continues to

significantly reduce oil purchases.

The president must also report to Congress within 120 days about the feasibility of sanctioning any

purchaser of Iranian natural gas unless the purchaser significantly reduces the volume of natural gas it buys from Iran.

Finance

Iran’s access to the international financial system has been nearly eliminated as a result of U.S.

sanctions. Without access to the international finance system, Iran’s ability to conduct trade and

receive payments for oil exports has been extremely limited.

With the measure’s enaction, sanctions would now be imposed on any foreign financial institution

that:

 Provides material support to designated Iranian banks. Only a handful of Iranian banks are not

designated and these banks do not conduct significant international business. In fact, both

Turkey and India have recently denied licenses to Iranian banks seeking to establish new

overseas branches.

 Conducts significant transactions or provides significant financial services to the Central Bank

of Iran. The only exception is now for the purchase of Iranian oil and then only if the country

is significantly reducing such imports. Now, Iran will be able to use the proceeds from the sale

of its oil only for bilateral trade and only with the country purchasing the oil. No funds will be

allowed to be repatriated to Iran.

 Conducts significant transactions or provides significant financial services to Iran’s Islamic

Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or any entity designated by the U.S. for supporting Iran’s

proliferation activities, including, for example, Iran Air.

Other key financial sanctions:

 Sanctions are authorized against any provider of specialized financial messaging services to

Iran. The SWIFT financial messaging service has already cut most Iranian banks out of its

systems.

 Sanctions are mandated on anyone carrying out significant trade with Iran in gold and other

precious metals.

 Sanctions are mandated on money changers carrying out significant financial transactions with

sanctioned Iranian financial institutions and the Central Bank of Iran.

 Sanctions are mandated on entities that purchase, subscribe to, or facilitate the new issuance of

Iranian sovereign debt. Anyone who buys a bond issued by Iran, for example, can now be

sanctioned.

Transportation

U.S. sanctions have targeted the Iranian transportation sector as an enabler of Tehran’s proliferation activities. Foreign entities aiding Iran’s major shipping lines and airlines face sanctions and the loss of access to U.S. markets.

Sanctions would now be imposed on anyone who:

 Transports Iranian crude oil.

 Provides material support or conducts a significant transaction with Iran Air or Mahan Air.

 Provides material support or conducts a significant transaction with the Islamic Republic of

Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL).

 Provides material support or conducts a significant transaction with Tidewater Middle East

Company, an IRGC affiliate controlling Iran’s largest ports and handling 95 percent of

container traffic in and out of Iran.

 Helps Iran evade transportation sanctions, including through such activities as masking the

ownership of oil vessels and aircraft.

 Provides transportation, insurance, or any other shipping service that could materially

contribute to the activities of the government of Iran with respect to the proliferation of

weapons of mass destruction or support for acts of international terrorism.

Human Rights

Individuals and entities responsible for carrying out serious human rights abuses in Iran are subject to U.S. sanctions. Those foreign entities that provide Iran the weapons and technology to carry out these abuses also face sanctions.

Sanctions would now be imposed on anyone who:

 Carries out, is responsible for, complicit in, or otherwise directs serious human rights abuses

committed against citizens of Iran or their family members.

 Transfers goods or technologies to Iran that are likely to be used to commit human rights

abuses.

 Engages in censorship, or activities relating to censorship, in a manner that prohibits, limits, or

penalizes the legitimate exercise of freedom of expression by citizens of Iran.

Other Important Sanctions:

 U.S. persons are prohibited from virtually all transactions related to Iran with certain

exceptions, notably for food, medicine, and informational materials.

 Sanctions are mandated on anyone providing Iran goods, services and/or technology that

would contribute materially to the ability of Tehran to acquire or develop chemical, biological,

or nuclear weapons as well as destabilizing numbers and types of advanced conventional

weapons.

 Companies seeking U.S. government contracts are required to certify that they do not conduct

business in violation of the Iran Sanctions Act or provide support to the IRGC. Companies

that provide sensitive technologies to Iran are also barred from receiving U.S. government

contracts.

 Companies required to file reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission must report

if they engage in certain transactions with Iran.

Sanctions Having Unprecedented Impact on Iran

Recently adopted U.S. and international sanctions, designed to persuade Tehran to end its pursuit of nuclear weapons, are having an unprecedented impact on the Iranian economy. The value of Iran’s currency has dropped by more than half, while Iran struggles to conduct basic international trade. European and Asian nations are reducing their purchases of Iranian crude, while foreign commodities suppliers are hesitant to ship to a nation having difficulty paying its bills. Iran can

resume normal trade and financial ties with the world by coming into compliance with its nonproliferation obligations and terminating its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Sanctions have virtually cut off the entire Iranian financial system from world markets.

 Due to U.S. sanctions targeting the Central Bank of Iran and the decision by the Society for

Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) to deny critical financial

services to Iran’s banks, Tehran has been virtually cut off from the global financial system.

 International banks have abandoned Iran in order not to lose access to the U.S. financial

system. Without SWIFT services, even those banks willing to conduct business with

Tehran have no means of doing so.

 Without the ability to receive payments for their goods, many companies have stopped

exports to Iran. German companies have been unable to receive payment for almost $2

billion from Iran as a result of SWIFT’s terminating Iranian access.

 Iran’s access to foreign exchange has been diminished as banks refuse to transfer funds to

Iran. Billions of dollars in profits are currently stuck in accounts at South Korean, Japanese

and other foreign banks. According to the White House, Iran does not have ready access to

70 percent of its foreign currency reserves.

Sanctions are having a broad impact on the Iranian economy, causing

slower growth, higher unemployment and rampant inflation.

 Tehran’s rial has shed nearly half its value relative to the dollar in the past six months—a

development that Iran’s Central Bank governor attributed to U.S. sanctions.

 Security forces have arrested hundreds of Iranians for exchanging rials for more stable

currency.

 Unemployment in Iran is also on the rise, as many small and medium sized businesses

struggle with the impact of sanctions and the rising costs of Iran’s subsidy reforms.

Sanctions have cut off Iran from international oil

markets.

 Iran’s central bank reported that in 22.5 percent of Iranian families all family members are

unemployed. Most analysts believe that unemployment is as high as 50 percent among

young Iranians.

 The central bank estimates Iran’s annual inflation rate at 21.8 percent, though economists

believe that the real figure is far higher.

 Iran’s food costs have increased dramatically, with the prices of vegetables, meat and dairy

products rising between 40 and 90 percent compared to last year. A grain shortage has

caused surging bread prices in Iran, forcing Tehran to stockpile large quantities of grain to

meet its needs.

 Ahmad Karimi-Isfahani, secretary of the Society of Bazaar Associations, recently told the

semi-official ILNA news agency: “It had never happened before that the prices of basic

commodities rise by about 50 per cent over one year.” The Iranian energy sector—including its ability to export oil—is under extreme pressure.

 A record number of countries are cutting their Iranian oil imports, leading the International

Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration to predict a major decline

in the country’s production of oil.

 Analysts at J.P. Morgan predicted that Iran’s oil sales could drop almost 1 million barrels

per day by July, reporting that many of Tehran’s customers have started to seek alternative

suppliers.

 The world’s largest consumers of Iranian oil – including China, Japan and South Korea –

have significantly reduced their oil purchases. China, the number one buyer of Iranian

crude, recently slashed by almost half its oil imports from Tehran.

 Every major western energy firm has ceased investing in Iran’s energy sector. Without

western technology, Iran cannot develop its oil and natural gas resources.

 Since passage of U.S. sanctions targeting Iran’s refined petroleum imports, the number of

companies selling refined petroleum to Iran has dropped from 16 to 4, according to a recent

GAO report.

 Iran has deployed more than half of its supertankers to store unsold oil at anchor in the

Persian Gulf. Recent shipping data indicates that the anchored vessels are holding 33

million barrels of oil.

 Fearing a major decline in its oil profits, Iran recently offered six months of free credit to

many of its most loyal oil customers in Asia.

Trade has been interrupted by Iran’s inability to obtain financial services,

insurance coverage and shipping services.

 Having been isolated from the international financial system, many Iranian firms are

struggling to purchase wheat from trading partners abroad. International ship owners

unable to obtain insurance coverage for cargos to Iran have ceased these operations. Under

the pressure of sanctions, maritime insurers in Japan and China – both major buyers of

Iranian oil – have significantly reduced cover for tankers carrying Iranian crude

 The central banks of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar recently told local lenders to

cease financing trade with Iran. These nations had provided a key source of credit and

payment settlement for Iran in the aftermath of U.N. and Western sanctions.

 Because of restricted access to foreign currency, Iranian demand for foreign cars has

plunged. Car sales in Iran are expected to fall more than 10 percent this year.

 U.S. sanctions forbidding the import of Iranian-made carpets have significantly reduced

Iran’s rug sales abroad. The carpet trade is a major pillar of Iran's economy, providing

some of Tehran’s most profitable exports.

[Hannibal]

(bismillah)

(salam)

The sanctions on Iran are really taking their toll. From speaking to friends and relatives in Iran - the general cost of living and the economic damage caused by all the outside factors is really making it difficult for the average Iranian.

Part of the reason is because Iranians have been economically very stupid and lazy for decades. Instead of producing their own goods they've relied on importing them from foreign countries by using dollars. I remember back in Iran all the clothes they had were imported from Turkey. Even chips and chocolates were not domestically made but imported from Turkey. I also recall seeing a Khomeini t-shirt ... I thought it had been made in Iran but then realized by looking at the back that it was made in Pakistan.

So it is natural that with the breaking down of Iran's currency prices have risen to such staggering highs since so much is imported from outside countries. If it wasn't for all the previous Western sanctions, the little that is domestically produced would not have existed.

These sanctions will be very difficult in the short term, but in the long term it will force Iranians to stop relying on imports and start making goods domestically. If Iran plays its cards right, these sanctions will be to Iran's benefit long term as it will expand the jobs market, discourage imports and encourage exports (instead of just relying on oil).

Iran's government must make sure to make the country business friendly. It takes way too long and too much bribing to get a permit for businesses and local industries in Iran. If they can get their act together, these sanctions can turn out to be a blessing in the long run since it will force the market and people to buy local.

Edited September 23, 2012 by Hannibal

[titumir]

This is the price to be paid for independence. Remember that it is a price worth paying.

[Haydar Husayn]

I don't understand why Iran isn't self-sufficient in gasoline by now. With all the oil they have, they shouldn't have to be importing gasoline from abroad. Building refineries should have been a top priority since the revolution.

[Abu'l Khattab]

On 9/23/2012 at 7:29 AM, titumir said:

This is the price to be paid for independence. Remember that it is a price worth paying.

With all due respect, you're not in Iran, you're not paying ANY price for these sanctions. The ones who are paying for it are the Iranian population.

So please, just save it.

[Muhammad Ibrahim]

On 9/23/2012 at 8:29 AM, Al-Afasy said:

With all due respect, you're not in Iran, you're not paying ANY price for these sanctions. The ones who are paying for it are the Iranian population.

So please, just save it.

That doesn't make what he said any less true, so unless you can rebut what he just said, I really don't see the point of your post.

[Hannibal]

In fact, we have many high quality products. The problem is that some Iranians prefer to buy foreign products because they think they have higher quality.

As to chips, cheese curls, etc. most of them are Iranian brands.

Iran does have domestically made products, but they are being drowned by cheaper foreign products. I recall that a lot of the chips and chocolates that were Iranian brands were imported from Turkey, only with Persian labels (probably packaged in Iran).

I agree with the Iranian mentality. These sanctions will force Iranians to stop buying foreign products insha'Allah.

[Al-Mufeed]

Hannibal I largely agree with you on Irans domestic production issues. However I am worried that Iran may not be able to become independent quickly enough to keep up with the Sanction damage. Also this is most probably not the end of the sanctions, as AIPAC is going to be trying to push even more sanctions on IR.

Based on whats going on with the sanctions/economic situation and the rhetoric that I have been reading from Sipah from the last few weeks - It seems to me (I hope I am wrong though) that its very possible that if the situation continues like this, Sipah may view going to war as being less costly than enduring these sanctions long term.

[siraatoaliyinhaqqun]

How about buying Iranian stuff like food, clothing etc which are not sanctioned? Our local persian grocerer in australia gets some of the products from Iran so we could encourage them to get more and try our best to get used to Persian cuisines (by the way not much of a difference from Indian and Pakistani food).

This could be possible individually. And something we could do collectively is setting up micro loans markets wherein u purchase certain products like Carpets, furniture and other non perishables and a 10% of the sales price from 5-10 people (lets say 2000$ )goes to a certain person as a micro loan and the lender makes sure that the 10% is redeemed back to the group. And this could be made more opaque by allowing people to know who they have lent the money to (like a fruit seller doing tough, or a manufacturer who wants to start his small business).

The investor has pretty much nothing to lose.

Who will do it: we can put our networks to best use by nominating one shia business person in each city / country to prepare a proper privately owned micro lending system which is a business entity dealing with things that are not under restriction.

When u can say ban Israeli/danish goods then why not raise the slogan of buy Iranian perishables and non perishables?

[The Green Knight]

Dear Iranian friends, titumir is right. We can say this because we Pakistanis are in a hell lot worse situation since quite a while. This is war, believe it or not, and war is hell, always has been and always will be. Satan won't let you off the hook regardless of your government until and unless you openly or covertly denounce Islam, apostate and embrace their secular ways. Or until US and Israel are destroyed or incapacitated. Look around you. Look at Iraq, Afghanistan, look at any Muslim country. Our only fault is to be Muslim. Even if you become a "democratic" puppet state with their puppets governing over you they won't relent until every last good thing in you disappears. Remember Third Reich? Thats what they're doing. They will oversee every nation's moral degeneration and submission to their systems for as long as it takes, i.e., no matter how many new generations it takes until they're sure that only garbage and refuse is left and that they will assimilate.

So either man up, become more efficient and fight like men. Or, individually, you can apostate and seek asylum in the West. There is no other way. I believe it is rather incomparably better to live in complete defiance and triumph, which you can, instead of living on your knees as slaves and third rate and very, very expendable subjects of Satan. They will soon start to mass eliminate us by any means necessary any way. It is the new decree that the world pop should fall to around 2 billion from the current 6.2 billion for a number of reasons. So I hope and we've all been hoping that Iran leads the way to global uprising against Satan and becomes an example of bold defiance for the rest of humanity.

[Hannibal]

Hannibal I largely agree with you on Irans domestic production issues. However I am worried that Iran may not be able to become independent quickly enough to keep up with the Sanction damage. Also this is most probably not the end of the sanctions, as AIPAC is going to be trying to push even more sanctions on IR.

Based on whats going on with the sanctions/economic situation and the rhetoric that I have been reading from Sipah from the last few weeks - It seems to me (I hope I am wrong though) that its very possible that if the situation continues like this, Sipah may view going to war as being less costly than enduring these sanctions long term.

Perhaps, but Iran's inflation problem revolves around basic goods and needs, including food, clothing and shelter.

These three things can be solved pretty easily through proper administration and investment in more agricultural friendly regions in Iran. Iran was very stupid to rely on imported soy beans to feed its chicken farms because it was cheaper to import them than to grow them oneself. But this was very stupid because you put yourself at the mercy of foreign price fluctuations and currency breakdowns and now you have chickens and eggs costing as much as gold in the country.

I think that one would be extremely incompetent in thinking that war would be a less costly solution than putting in proper administration and cleaning up these lazy moftkhors who do nothing in their offices all day except for drinking tea and stinking up their ugly western white shirts and pants with their sweat.

Edited September 24, 2012 by Hannibal

[layman]

RIght after the revolution 1979 and during iran-iraq war, Iranian people suffered but they steadfast. Nothing is worse if compared to that time period.

Not Iran is at war with the west, led by the US (economic war). Surely they will suffer and they will steadfast. Don't underestimate their will power to survive. But the west also is suffering. To win this war, who can steadfast longer.

Let us see and time will tell us who holds the final victory.

[Abu Hadi]

On 9/23/2012 at 11:15 PM, Al-Mufeed said:

Hannibal I largely agree with you on Irans domestic production issues. However I am worried that Iran may not be able to become independent quickly enough to keep up with the Sanction damage. Also this is most probably not the end of the sanctions, as AIPAC is going to be trying to push even more sanctions on IR.

Salam Brother,

Actually the reason why AIPAC is going crazy now is because they have already done the equivalent of drop the economic atomic bomb on Iran (which happened when the pulled rights for SWIFT transactions from Iranian banks) so what else can they do ? If I was in Iran now and doing bad economically, I could take solace in the fact that this is as bad as the sanctions are going to get, there is nothing worse they can do, economically that is.

Also, all the countries that are 'hanging' with the U.S. on these sanctions, even though these sanctions are, in some cases hurting their own economies, are already in the U.S. camp (like France, Germany, U.K.). They are not getting any new 'hangers on' and even some of their previous buddies are starting to jump ship on them. Most notably India and South Korea. So the longer the brave Iranian nation resists these sanctions, the more they see cracks in the AIPAC buddy system. Time is on the side of Iran, not AIPAC. The U.S. also knows this, and this is why they are scrambling desperately to find something new to damage Iran cause all their current options have run out.

Also, I don't live in Iran and so I don't know what troubles they are going thru. I can say this though, at least all of us Shia are praying and saying duaa for our brothers and sisters in Iran every day. Iran is the hope of all the Shia and as Iran goes, so we all go, so all of us are connected to this in some way. Some might disagree with that last statement, but that's how I feel.

[hasanhh]

I agree with you on this:

...

I agree that we are somewhat lazy. I also think that we must work more on agricultural and horticultural fields.

(salam)

Iran really needs to develop water for irrigation to do this.

[hasanhh]

Dear Iranian friends, titumir is right. We can say this because we Pakistanis are in a hell lot worse situation since quite a while. This is war, believe it or not, and war is hell, always has been and always will be. Satan won't let you off the hook regardless of your government until and unless you openly or covertly denounce Islam, apostate and embrace their secular ways.... Look around you. Look at Iraq, Afghanistan, look at any Muslim country. Our only fault is to be Muslim. Even if you become a "democratic" puppet state with their puppets governing over you they won't relent until every last good thing in you disappears. Remember Third Reich? Thats what they're doing. They will oversee every nation's moral degeneration and submission to their systems for as long as it takes, i.e., no matter how many new generations it takes until they're sure that only garbage and refuse is left and that they will assimilate.

(salam)

I fundamentally agree. In another location in this forum, I quoted from a Wall Street Journal article from back in the 1990s. When asked about how the US was going to achieve its policy objectives in Central Asia, an unnamed State Department official said, "we are going to make drunks out of them like we did with the Indians." {you can see why this was easy for me to remember}

Then I went on to write about drug addiction in Afghanistan. Before the US invasion, drug use in Afghanistan was so frowned upon that it was only something you occasionally heard about. Then this past Spring on National Public Radio it was reported that Afghanistan now has 1.5 Million addicts.

Surprised?

Which gives a tactical point to the Talibs...attack the drug trade and you simultaneously attack the Pentagon, State, and agencies and US policies. And the drug monies removed restricts their ability to run self-sustaining-off-the-shelf operations. Unfortunately, "china rules" will have to apply.

The CIA even sold drugs to US troops in Vietnam --major shipment hubs out of Samnuah(Laos) and Da Nang. They also conived how to get it into Japan starting in 1992.

Allah Akbar

[repenter-gone4awhile]

Maybe because Iranians(middle class and up, usually those complaining alot) are spoiled. I was in Iran for 3 months, and it's so silly the way they behave. Chicken/Meat everyday. Chicken costs 6000 toman per kilo, whilst turkey(better meat) costs 2000 toman per kilo. Now, if you can't get chicken, buy friggin turkey.

And anyone that has family in Iran, you are a lying brat if you don't admit that they have it pretty darn good, regardless of price changes. My family is middle class, and their children go to Music class, ski class, swimming, tennis etc, everyone gets driven to school either by taxi or by car, they eat good food and are out all damn day in the parks, and from what i see, eveyones also got a damn computer.

Now you who live in Europe(i can't speak for US). Which one of you political geniuses get driven to school everyday? How many hobby classes do you go to? Which one of you eats chicken every god damn day?

Yes, life is tough nowadays, but so is life in Europe. Tell me UK residents, how are Univ prices nowadays? Or Scandinavians, how are interests rates and ability to get a loan? How is the job market in most of Europe?

Now those that are supposed to complain, the lower classes, of some mysterious reason to certain people, aren't complaining, i wonder why.

..............There, got some frustration out.........how is the weather?

Maybe because Iranians(middle class and up, usually those complaining alot) are spoiled. I was in Iran for 3 months, and it's so silly the way they behave. Chicken/Meat everyday. Chicken costs 6000 toman per kilo, whilst turkey(better meat) costs 2000 toman per kilo. Now, if you can't get chicken, buy friggin turkey.

And anyone that has family in Iran, you are a lying brat if you don't admit that they have it pretty darn good, regardless of price changes. My family is middle class, and their children go to Music class, ski class, swimming, tennis etc, everyone gets driven to school either by taxi or by car, they eat good food and are out all damn day in the parks, and from what i see, eveyones also got a damn computer.

I had to take the damn school bus in -25C the whole winter. And i had to walk to the Univ in the same temperature. I worked throughout my highschool and Univ years. Tell me, how many Iranian teenagers are willing to work at supermarkets and stores? Go on, those who talk to your families in Iran, ask them why they don't. Let me answer you for them, they say it's below their class.

There are jobs in Iran, but people want to work as doctors before they finish junior high, that is why.

Now you who live in Europe(i can't speak for US). Which one of you political geniuses get driven to school everyday? How many hobby classes do you go to? Which one of you eats chicken every god damn day?

Yes, life is tough nowadays, but so is life in Europe. Tell me UK residents, how are Univ prices nowadays? Or Scandinavians, how are interests rates and ability to get a loan? How is the job market in most of Europe?

Now those that are supposed to complain, the lower classes, of some mysterious reason to certain people, aren't complaining, i wonder why.

..............There, got some frustration out.........how is the weather?

[Al-Mufeed]

DUBAI: Iran’s rial plunged at least 9 per cent to a record low against the US dollar on Tuesday as the industry minister said he hoped security services would root out speculators whom he blamed for the drop.

The rial was trading at about 37,500 to the dollar, down from around 34,200 at the close of business on Monday, a foreign exchange trader in Tehran told Reuters. Other Tehran traders said the rial had dropped even further, to 38,000 or 40,000.

The currency has lost about a third of its value since Monday last week, when the government launched an “exchange centre” that was designed to stabilise the rial by supplying dollars to importers, but appears to have backfired.

Iran’s economy has been hit hard this year by Western economic sanctions against its disputed nuclear programme. The sanctions have slashed its oil exports and mostly excluded it from the global banking system.

Iranians have responded by scrambling to change their rial savings into hard currency, fuelling the slide.

“We have greater expectations that the security services will control the branches and sources of disruption in the exchange market,” said Iran’s minister of industry, mines and trade Mehdi Ghazanfari, according to the Fars news agency.

“Brokers in the market are also pursuing the increase in price because for them it will be profitable, and there is nobody to control them.”

http://dawn.com/2012/10/02/iran-rial-tumbles-nine-per-cent-hits-record-low/

[baradar_jackson]

There are three possible outcomes:

One, is that this impact will become progressively greater, until Iran capitulates.

Two: the impact becomes progressively greater under the people grow weary and it causes internal unrest.

Three (and my personal favorite): Iran switches up its whole economy, with the main aim as to push the financial sector completely to the side and to return to a more tangible system on firmer ground.

God only knows.

But although Iran has been hurt, we must also note that Europe has been hurt as well. Meaning, they could very well end up regretting this cute little move of theirs. (idiots)

[Al-Mufeed]

Three (and my personal favorite): Iran switches up its whole economy, with the main aim as to push the financial sector completely to the side and to return to a more tangible system on firmer ground.

This is exactly what we need, not just for IR, but for the entire world. If we want an actual Islamic society, and we want to pave the way for the coming of Imam Mehdi (as) - having a financial revolution is the utmost priority. We have had a political/legal revolution - and we now need a financial revolution.We have been needing it forever.

We are at war with secularism - it doesn't make any sense for us to use their economic system. We need an islamic system that does not rely on all these fake/haram financial tricks.

[baradar_jackson]

^ If tomorrow, (and I say this hypothetically, of course), every piece of money in Iran were to be burned, and people were to pay taxes-in-kind and be given payment in the form of goods, the only people who would complain are the people who have so much money that they are unaffected by this inflation crisis. (and F them anyway, pardon my language)

I think the best strategy for going about breaking up the financial mafia, is to stage an unrest. Organize mass protests against the private banks and the capitalists. Then, the government can prop itself up as a "mediator" between the two sides, while ultimately stacking the cards in favor of the "protestors." Finally, the government will "cave" to the "demands" of the "protestors" and completely shut down the cartels and seize all of their "property" (which of course, is illegitimate). Thus, the resources will all be centralized, making the circumstance more ideal for a siege economy. (Iran is under siege, duh. Why have an open economy when the traditional world economic powers are all against Iran?)

But this scenario is unlikely because too many impure elements in the government were behind this gradual transformation; why would they care to undo it?

The sad thing is that the only one in this whole equation who is REAL, is Seyyed Ali Khamenei, and he is probably the one who will get the most blame for everything.

[The Green Knight]

LOL btw I bet all the Sunni around the globe will cry their eyes out for the next several decades if a financial revolution takes place in Iran.

Boohoo.. we Sunnehs became paupers and lost all our monies because of Khamenai!

So that alone makes it worth it. :P

In video games, only the non-democratic governments can do such useful big changes. So Iran can do it.

Do it now!!!

[Abu Hadi]

I think the best way to deal with this is a process which has already started. Those countries who are or have been in the past victims of the Global Banking Mafia headed by IMF via US/UK/Germany/France are starting to form a independent bloc who are trying to completely disconnect themselves from this Mafia. Among the prominent ones are , of course, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Argentina, and Brazil. The countries in S.America are natural allies to Iran because they have been the victims of U.S. imperialism in all its forms for more than 100 years now. Brazil has been the most successful and has basically managed to become self sufficient and disconnect themselves from the Global Banking Mafia. That is why they are one of the few countries in the world that is growing economically at this time. Iran is following the Brazilian model but the main problem for Iran is that they are dependent on the Global Economy because the govt is heavily dependent on oil exports for their income. Brazil exports but they are not very heavily dependent on one particular export for a majority of their income. So I think Iran needs to diversify in that regard then they will be more independent and more immune from these plots. Anyway, fossil fuels are a non renewable resource and one day they will run out.

[Al-Mufeed]

^before we can deal with international banking/finance mafias - we have to deal with the internal ones - If we can curb them inside Iran, we may have a chance internationaly.

[Al-Mufeed]

Understanding the rial’s freefall

October 4th, 2012

Djavad Salehi-Isfahani

The sharp drop in the value of the rial in the last two weeks has created much excitement in Iran and abroad, but mostly for the wrong reasons. In the parallel (or free) market for foreign currencies, the rial fell by 15% in one day this week, reaching its lowest value ever — 35,000 rials per US dollar — down by more than 50% compared to a month ago and 300% to last December when international sanctions tightened against Iran.

What all the related excitement overshadows is that this devaluation is not comparable to those in other countries where large devaluations caused severe shocks to the economy, such as those that swept through Asia in 1997-98. That’s because in those situations all prices were affected because all foreign exchange was traded at the same (rising) rate. This is not the case in Iran because nearly all foreign exchange is earned by the government, which has decided to sell most of it at a lower rate for the import of goods and services that it deems essential.

The rial devaluation that has created the media excitement is actually taking place in a narrow market that is shrinking in size and diminishing in importance. Iran’s Central Bank has classified a long list of goods into categories with priorities 1 through 10, leaving it to the parallel market to take of all other needs. Priorities 1 and 2 are food and medicine, receiving foreign exchange at the official rate of 12,260 rials per dollar, followed by other categories with lower priorities, which are mostly intermediate goods used in industrial production.

The government has been promising to do something for the import of these non-essential but important commodities, which account for about two-thirds of Iran’s imports, offering them some sort of preferential treatment. But the Central Bank was slow to respond and those producers who did not want to wait bought their currency needs in the parallel market, competing with speculators and people taking their money out of the country. The uncertainty about the sanctions, bewildering pronouncements from government officials in

Iran, and hype over a possible Israeli attack, all combined to throw this market into chaos.

To protect Iran’s producers from what the government considers the consequences of “psychological war”, the Central Bank set up a “Currency Exchange Center” and invited licensed importers and exporters to trade their foreign currencies there, hoping that the auction rates reached there would be more stable and lower than the parallel market rate. When the Exchange Center opened just two weeks ago, the volume of transactions quickly jumped from $10 to $181 million per day, with most of the supply likely coming from the Central Bank. The Exchange Center diverted some of the supply of currency away from the parallel market, which I believe caused the rate there to soar.

Curiously, the Central Bank had predicted the opposite: that by arranging trade in the Exchange Center it would help lower the rate in the parallel market. This miscalculation added to the confusion and fear that the government did not know what it was doing. While the Exchange Center has produced a lower rate than the parallel market and can potentially shield producers from the worst psychological effects of sanctions and war, the shock to the parallel market has caused a serious political if not economic crisis for the government of Mr. Ahmadinejad.

Does all this mean that Iran’s economy is on the verge of collapse, as Israel’s Finance Minster reportedly said? The answer is no, because most of the economy is shielded from this exchange rate, though not from the ill effects of the sanctions, which will continue to bite for a while. Would it cause sufficient economic pain that would push the Iranian government to make concessions in its nuclear standoff with the West? The answer is not likely. The multiple exchange rate system, as inefficient as it is, will protect the people below the median income, to whom the Ahmadinejad government is most responsive.

But the government can ill afford to ignore millions of Iranians, mostly upper income Iranians, who are affected by the gyrations of the parallel market. Among them are millions of people who are seeking a safe place for their savings, parents who send money to their children for education abroad or need to travel there to see them. They are not all importers of luxury items or those who want to take their money out of Iran. In allocating its limited — perhaps shrinking supply of for foreign currency — the government has a difficult time balancing the needs of the lower middle class and the poor with those of upper income Iranians that it cannot rely on for political support

[AJ 12]

what do you guys think of this article there trying to say that the governments is trying to make the rich suffer while keeping the poor stable by keeping the essential items like food on the official foreign exchange rate of 12,260 and leaving the non essential items to the parallel market which is seeing the huge plunge in the rail.

http://www.businessinsider.com/actually-there-is-no-hyperinflation-in-iran-2012-10

[Al-Mufeed]

what do you guys think of this article there trying to say that the governments is trying to make the rich suffer while keeping the poor stable by keeping the essential items like food on the official foreign exchange rate of 12,260 and leaving the non essential items to the parallel market which is seeing the huge plunge in the rail.

http://www.businessi...in-iran-2012-10

I posted the original article that this one ^ is based on.

The part about "punishing the rich" or "targeting the middle class" is just the authors opinion. They are basing it off the idea that the regime views the poorer parts of society to be more important do to the perception that they are more likely to be the bulk of the regimes support.

I think though that the effect on the middle/upper class is just the consequence of the over all situation.

I mean all political things aside the reality is this - what is more important to keep inexpensive for a society? Luxury items or staple foods and medicines?

Would it make any sense for the regime to basically subsidize middle class/upper class luxary items, that a large portion of the population couldn't normally afford any way?

[AJ 12]

I posted the original article that this one ^ is based on.

The part about "punishing the rich" or "targeting the middle class" is just the authors opinion. They are basing it off the idea that the regime views the poorer parts of society to be more important do to the perception that they are more likely to be the bulk of the regimes support.

I think though that the effect on the middle/upper class is just the consequence of the over all situation.

I mean all political things aside the reality is this - what is more important to keep inexpensive for a society? Luxury items or staple foods and medicines?

Would it make any sense for the regime to basically subsidize middle class/upper class luxary items, that a large portion of the population couldn't normally afford any way?

I agree with you that the job of a government is to look out for the whole of society and especially the poor they are the priority. I think the main thing now is to see if Iran are going to need to somehow negotiate to ease the sanctions because if you think about it,s only going to get worse 'they won,t stop until they see the last truly independent nation brought to it,s knees. Another thing is that as long as oil accounts for 80% of there income and there is a huge reliability on imported refined oil there hardship is never going to go away

[hasanhh]

I don't understand why Iran isn't self-sufficient in gasoline by now. With all the oil they have, they shouldn't have to be importing gasoline from abroad. Building refineries should have been a top priority since the revolution.

(salam)

Because only a few years ago did Iran take the idea of refining seriously. They are now at 80% of needs.

Hannibal I largely agree with you on Irans domestic production issues. However I am worried that Iran may not be able to become independent quickly enough to keep up with the Sanction damage. Also this is most probably not the end of the sanctions, as AIPAC is going to be trying to push even more sanctions on IR.

Based on whats going on with the sanctions/economic situation and the rhetoric that I have been reading from Sipah from the last few weeks - It seems to me (I hope I am wrong though) that its very possible that if the situation continues like this, Sipah may view going to war as being less costly than enduring these sanctions long term.

(salam)

First, to eliminate the bureaucratic hurdles and graft, a simple business registration should be available.

Simple as like registering to vote.

Zoning should, for now, be limited to rstricting where chemicals are produced and toxic substances are used.

Repenter: (salam) , You forgot to mention the medical care.

This is exactly what we need, not just for IR, but for the entire world. If we want an actual Islamic society, and we want to pave the way for the coming of Imam Mehdi (as) - having a financial revolution is the utmost priority. We have had a political/legal revolution - and we now need a financial revolution.We have been needing it forever.

We are at war with secularism - it doesn't make any sense for us to use their economic system. We need an islamic system that does not rely on all these fake/haram financial tricks.

(salam)

1) You do not need to wait for Imam Mahdi to solve your economic problems for you. Besides, that will not be in his job description.

Rhetorically: Why H____ can't you do it yourself ?

2) Financial Revolution: For the last century plus, people are caught in thinking restricted between socialism (you know, where the busy bodies run your business) and free-for-all lazier faire "grab baggery"(hey, I coined a phrase here) where most people get shafted and the private-armies win and then extort/abuse. What is needed is the development of new economic models/ideas.

3) Believers are "always at war with unbelievers". They are not necessarily secularists.

4) I do not think the political-legal revolution is over.

[baradar_jackson]

Maybe because Iranians(middle class and up, usually those complaining alot) are spoiled. I was in Iran for 3 months, and it's so silly the way they behave. Chicken/Meat everyday. Chicken costs 6000 toman per kilo, whilst turkey(better meat) costs 2000 toman per kilo. Now, if you can't get chicken, buy friggin turkey.

And anyone that has family in Iran, you are a lying brat if you don't admit that they have it pretty darn good, regardless of price changes. My family is middle class, and their children go to Music class, ski class, swimming, tennis etc, everyone gets driven to school either by taxi or by car, they eat good food and are out all damn day in the parks, and from what i see, eveyones also got a damn computer.

Now you who live in Europe(i can't speak for US). Which one of you political geniuses get driven to school everyday? How many hobby classes do you go to? Which one of you eats chicken every god damn day?

Yes, life is tough nowadays, but so is life in Europe. Tell me UK residents, how are Univ prices nowadays? Or Scandinavians, how are interests rates and ability to get a loan? How is the job market in most of Europe?

Now those that are supposed to complain, the lower classes, of some mysterious reason to certain people, aren't complaining, i wonder why.

..............There, got some frustration out.........how is the weather?

Can't believe I missed this post.

Bro you are spot-on on everything you say. For the middle and upper classes, the inflation issue has always been an exaggeration. Moreover, they are the worst combination of ignorant and arrogant, so they think they have understanding of the issue when they do not. For example, they can't stop bringing up the fact that the the dollar was just 7 tomans before the revolution, neglecting to mention that.... um, people were not paid the same amounts of money, back then. A factory's worker's current day wage of 300 thousand tomans per month could not have allowed him (before the revolution) to save up just a few months to buy a ferrari in the US.

They are idiots and complainers, no doubt. Anyone who disputes this is either a liar or is completely ignorant of the situation.

However, the inflation issue is a problem, for certain. When bigwigs like Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi and Ayatollah Jafar Sobhani speak on the issue, that means it's an actual issue. And of course, the support base of the Islamic system -- the working class -- is less inclined to complain about it. But it is hurting them; more than it is hurting anyone else.

Another undeniable fact is the gradual subversion of our economic system. There is nothing wrong with addressing these issues, of course with clarifications with regard to how the enemy has sought to take advantage of it and magnify it. (Iran's inflation issue is no more an international news issue than the hijabi ninja issue)

[skylight2]

A factory's worker's current day wage of 300 thousand tomans per month could not have allowed him (before the revolution) to save up just a few months to buy a ferrari in the US.

not quite clear, above... do you mean daily, or monthly? And how much approximately in US $ ...per month?

[thabo]

Assalam Alaikum. Interresting topic. I really never understood why Iran wants to compete with the west. Iran has a golden oppertunity to become something totally different. Why in God's name do you want nuclaer energy? This poison is a curse for future generations, just think of the nuclaer waste which one day will come out to the survise and than what? Or an earthquake (just look at Japan) or terrorist attack or bombing by another nation in wartime. You may be able to guarantee it's safety now, but the world doesn't stay the same, empires come and go so do wars and times of utter anarchy and chaos, what than? Or don't you care? Why not stop this foolish nuclaer project, not because of western pressure, but because it was just a bad idea in the first place. Don't continue it just because you don't want to appear as "giving in" to the west, that is just silly pride feeding the nafs anyway. Give it up, because you're going to develop something better. Give it up and the imperial powers can no longer have any excuse to punish and manipulate the people by sanctions. Give it up,.....and than come back at these imperial [Edited Out]s in a way they will never ever forget. You will develop free zero point energy as Tessler has allready developed early 20th century but was never put to use because it will destroy the power of the big resource controlling multi nationals. You will create moters that can work on waste, it allready exists because in Norway some busses and trains work on gas produced by fermenting waste, only they use rotting carcasses from abbetoirs but more cheap and everywhere available is the gasses produced form human waste (enough sewege in the world). Cars can allready drive on water, but this is held back by the big oil companies, develop motors that can drive on sea water (sweet water is to scarse). Don't worry about your own oil industry, it will run out one day anyway. Develop these new clean techniques with free energy for ALL the people in your country and than sell it's now how to all the other developing counties and the imperial countries will be history, for their power is based on exploiting the natural resources. Iran can really be a leading country. Just stop this competing with the west with the wrong things (you may end up like them in this way anyway), just let them think they have won, in the end you will be the one with the last laugh.

Khodâ Hâfez.

[AJ 12]

Assalam Alaikum. Interresting topic. I really never understood why Iran wants to compete with the west. Iran has a golden oppertunity to become something totally different. Why in God's name do you want nuclaer energy? This poison is a curse for future generations, just think of the nuclaer waste which one day will come out to the survise and than what? Or an earthquake (just look at Japan) or terrorist attack or bombing by another nation in wartime. You may be able to guarantee it's safety now, but the world doesn't stay the same, empires come and go so do wars and times of utter anarchy and chaos, what than? Or don't you care? Why not stop this foolish nuclaer project, not because of western pressure, but because it was just a bad idea in the first place. Don't continue it just because you don't want to appear as "giving in" to the west, that is just silly pride feeding the nafs anyway. Give it up, because you're going to develop something better. Give it up and the imperial powers can no longer have any excuse to punish and manipulate the people by sanctions. Give it up,.....and than come back at these imperial [Edited Out]s in a way they will never ever forget. You will develop free zero point energy as Tessler has allready developed early 20th century but was never put to use because it will destroy the power of the big resource controlling multi nationals. You will create moters that can work on waste, it allready exists because in Norway some busses and trains work on gas produced by fermenting waste, only they use rotting carcasses from abbetoirs but more cheap and everywhere available is the gasses produced form human waste (enough sewege in the world). Cars can allready drive on water, but this is held back by the big oil companies, develop motors that can drive on sea water (sweet water is to scarse). Don't worry about your own oil industry, it will run out one day anyway. Develop these new clean techniques with free energy for ALL the people in your country and than sell it's now how to all the other developing counties and the imperial countries will be history, for their power is based on exploiting the natural resources. Iran can really be a leading country. Just stop this competing with the west with the wrong things (you may end up like them in this way anyway), just let them think they have won, in the end you will be the one with the last laugh.

Khodâ Hâfez.

I think the thing you don,t get is that the nuclear program is just a ploy from America there real motive is regime and iran knows this and there not willing to play ball. You think if Iran suspended there program it would make any real change in America policy's towards Iran

[thabo]

I think the thing you don,t get is that the nuclear program is just a ploy from America there real motive is regime and iran knows this and there not willing to play ball. You think if Iran suspended there program it would make any real change in America policy's towards Iran

Assalam Alaikum. Yes I know the nuclaer programme is just an excuse. Still nuclaer energy is not a good idea, in fact it is a dangerious polutant with long term consequences for the planet and better be outlawed. My point is that Iran could do something much more better, renewable and be a real cutting edge for the developing world in terms of clean and cheap energy pushing the world out of the clutches of those multi-nationals who depend on the dirty energy status qua.

Wasalam.

Edited October 8, 2012 by thabo

[Salehe]

Thabo said: Yes I know the nuclaer programme is just an excuse. Still nuclaer energy is not a good idea, in fact it is a dangerious polutant with long term consequences for the planet and better be outlawed. My point is that Iran could do something much more better, renewable and be a real cutting edge for the developing world in terms of clean and cheap energy pushing the world out of the clutches of those multi-nationals who depend on the dirty energy status qua.

This seems close to truth to me.

perhaps politicians and powers that are suffocating the world, know how to push Iran to a corner where they want. and if Iran makes its own way and not get pulled into these multi-targeted games; it can make a way out also for the future generations.

I also see Iran to be a potential leading edge.

[MrAnt]

In the name of Allah, Most Compassionate Most Merciful,

The culture and society of United States is so diverse and disunited that they have no means to support the whole of the population. In the 1800's it was the indians, 1900's the africans, 2000 is now Muslims. Sadly, the political structure has no true stable foundation and it is the sole representation of the nation which through extreme pride and falsehood of media is depicted to be the perfect institution. Clearly it was never any good to begin with and the pride and lies has only lead to the killing of millions of innocent people. In fact, all wars in the last approx. 150 years can be traced back to United States deficiency in beliefs or lack of any belief. The attempt to tend to the needs of every peoples has become a cycle of bias and prejeduce towards targeted races, religious, cultural, and even political groups. The Global Community looks to the United States as a market for business and networking, and never as a source of military leadership. A bill of this sort only shows the uselessness of the United Nations and U.N., both acting as puppets for American politics and ultimatley poisoned by media and entertainment of Israel. Telivsion programs are not the way to raise children nor is it the way to sway the people of a nation to Unity and effective coincidence amongst eachother. The power of the Asian Union, exlcuding many nations which due to extreme poverty have become a modern day colony of European nations and America, has a stronger economical and political structure than the United States which due to lack there of resorts to militarianism. There is no hope for a people who have so much hatred towards their own people. The United States is known to be a diverse nation and because of the networking value of the nation there should be more stability in the world community. The only way to look at the problem now is to break the people up into specific groups (class, religion, race), as this is the way they depict it to be, although in actual American society you find many groups interacting on all levels. The Jewish and Christians have tried to make a pact and create a political guard for the United States, although they left out 90% of the population (Chinese and Indians). The Hypocricy is evident in all forms and it cannot be ignored (Why pay any mind to something that is harmful to everyone and everything). The production of anything political and commercial in the United States has become like the footsteps of Shaytan(May Allah (swt) Curse be upon them).

If something is broken and you cannot fix it, you cannot hide it. Hiding it only bring more harm upon you.

The laws and the military oppress their own civilians, why would they have any right to oppress another nation??

The only way if you are Shia' is to be sure that life in this world is short, no matter how freaking long, tiring, and oppressive it may seem. Say, Ya Allah, Ya Rahman, Ya Raheem, Ya Moghalibul Ghulub.... and endure as much as you may.

There is no doubt that Allah is the true God, He has never failed anyone.

Wassalaum Aleykum

Iran by the way is the most peaceful country in the world.