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SamFreeman

When The Us Will Attack This Year

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Will Obama attack Iran for an October Surprise or will he Wag the Dog just before the Republican Convention?

I think an unjustified attack on Iran's civilian nuclear facilities is almost certain to happen before the November elections in the US. Netanyahu does not trust Obama and wants the murderous endeavor to occur before his political leverage on Obama is diminished in the event that Obama is reelected. Obama would be less politically accountable if he does not have to worry about any more elections in the future and he would be term-limited after a second term.

Obama may now see an attack as his only chance at winning reelection. If he doesn’t attack and the Israelis attack on their own, the Republicans will portray Obama as anti-Israel. In the initial weeks after a war begins the current president's poll numbers usually improve as the country rallies around the Commander-in-Chief and buys into the war propaganda. However, this is risky. The world economy is still in a depression and a war with Iran would be a body-blow to the already feeble economy that will be disastrous to the entire world. Any support for this insane war against American interests on behalf of the Zionist entity will soon dissipate as people begin to discover the lies they have been fed and face the economic misery that follows. There is risk that some people will see the war as purely political and meant only to help him win reelection. The real firestorm will come when American’s learn the real reason the Israeli’s want their American lackeys to fight this war for them: the destruction of these nuclear facilities will kill hundreds of thousands of civilians and many American troops in the region. The war will be fought in radiological waste.

Our media are helping the Zionists hide the fact that an Israeli or US attack on Iran's civilian nuclear facilities would expose thousands of our own troops to lethal doses of radiation and hundreds of thousands of civilians. The impact from attacking Iran’s nuclear reactor in Bushehr alone would be devastating. Bahrain is home to US Naval Forces Central Command and the US 5th Fleet. If Bahrain will be heavily affected, as Cordesman and Toukan state in their study, then our troops will be too:

Most definitely Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE will be heavily affected by the radionuclides.

And

Any strike on the Bushehr Nuclear Reactor will cause the immediate death of thousands of people living in or adjacent to the site, and thousands of subsequent cancer deaths or even up to hundreds of thousands depending on the population density along the contamination plume.

(See: page 90, Anthony H. Cordesman and Abdullah Toukan, Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities, March 14, 2009 )

Israel wants the US to incur the wrath of the Islamic world for a war that entails what is in essence a massive radiological attack on civilians. They want the body bags to be stuffed with American troops, not Israelis.

There are many other reasons this war will be a disaster, but the full impact would be felt after the election.

So if the attack will happen before the election, when will it happen?

If the economic devastation were the only consideration, then Obama would probably wait until two or three weeks before the election, to make sure voters don't have a true inkling about the economic disaster to come. But the impact on the economy isn't the only factor to consider.

Obama may want the attack to be before October in order to protect himself politically from the accusation that he is starting a war only because it is necessary for him to win reelection. There is a major incentive to avoid starting the war in October so that Republicans cannot accuse Obama of an "October Surprise." There is a strategic oil reserve that can and will be tapped to offset the major damage to the world's oils supply and stave off the impact on the economy. So I think it will be before October, which leaves only August and September.

The Republican National Convention is scheduled for August 27 and the Democrats follow with their convention a week later, starting September 3. The Republicans have been trying to portray Obama as anti-Israel and weak on foreign policy. Their convention will probably be mostly focused on fixing the economy and criticizing Obama for not taking action on Iran. I think Obama is planning to attack Iran in the week before the Republican Convention because he thinks it will maximize his chances for reelection.

This would force Republican Convention speakers to make major modifications to their speeches to replace the parts that attack Obama for not taking action against Iran. It will also take away media coverage of the Republican Convention. There will be many Ron Paul supporters at the Republican Convention and they are against this war which is not in America's interests and they will be booing anytime the warmongers mention an attack on Iran. By the following week the newness of the war will have faded. The media will cover the entire convention and it will set Obama up to portray himself as tough on foreign policy at the Democratic National Convention that will look a lot like the 2004 Republican National Convention.

He can claim that he had no choice but to take action because negotiations and sanctions have not yielded his desired result. If Republicans criticize the timing of the attack Obama can cite the Republicans' own demands that he attack Iran against them to make it look like it is they who are being political when they should be rallying around our troops.

A war game in 2002 and another earlier this year showed that Iran’s naval strategy for the Persian Gulf focusing on asymmetric warfare using hundreds of small fast ships armed with cruise missiles could result in disaster for the US Navy. If Iran succeeded in sinking the US Fifth Fleet, or even just an aircraft carrier, the political damage would be enormous and the entire world would be stunned. Because the primary concern of Obama is his own reelection, I would expect any attack he launches against Iran’s nuclear facilities to be accompanied or preceded by a massive attack on the IRGCN and Iran’s missile sites. If he were to try just surgical strikes, Iran would then have control of how the situation escalates and the IRGCN would be able to retaliate.

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I think direct American bombing on Iran is unlikely, because American casualties would be too high (Iran's response would be too strong) and the American regime must be aware of it.

I hope you are correct. This is one time I would like to wrong. But I think Netanyahu is the one really calling the shots.

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I hope you are correct. This is one time I would like to wrong. But I think Netanyahu is the one really calling the shots.

The Israeli and American regimes are pretty foolish, but I expect them not to be that foolish, to risk all the nearby American bases and Israeli regime's survival in itself... when Iran retaliates to any American-Israeli aggression.

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(salam)

I read an interesting point of view @ "bomb Iran fever" on Asia Times Online. The article described a situation of "Barak and Bibi against everybody else" where the other Israeli leadership and the Pentagon/CIA are protesting any action against Iran. [skirt-chaser Bibi is Likud and Likud is an American creation-ed]. So why is Bibi talking so belligerantly towards and about Iran? This the article asks.

Me: To help Barak get votes for the 2012 Election. Foreign "conflicts" are an easy vote getter in the US.

Edited by hasanhh

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^ not really. Barak and netenyahoo relations have cooled down somewhat, and braks grovelling and tough stance is mere lip service for the jewish vote and money. But its only on the surface as the israelis have realised. So thier preferance is romney, because historically the neocons are crazy enough to actually do israels bidding.

As for attack on iran, initially it was Bibi and ehud baraks dream, but since they realised they have no support from any quarters, including thier own military and intelligence, they have cooled down for now and biding thier time for the next window of opportunity...which will likely be after the election, pending romney wins.

So for now tehran is off the table, but the agressive talks contine to keep the pressure on the west, who inturn keep pressure on tehran because they cant afford to be dragged into a war yet. So the next window is likely to be spring 2013 as israel tends to avoid winter wars, and summer is almost finshed.

Edited by Asr

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I think all the bluster from Israel is meant to provide cover for Obama. I still think Obama will attack in the week before the Republican National Convention (August 20-26), but a new scenario has emerged. Before, the main scenarios were (1) Israel attacks alone; (2) the US attacks alone; (3) Israel and the US attack together; or (4) no attack. The new scenario is a variation of scenario (3), Israel and the US attack. Only Israel starts our acting like it is scenario (1) and Israel's main purpose in participating would be to provide political cover for Obama, rather than a genuine effort to take out the facilities by themselves (although they will bomb targets).

A recent article in the Times of Israel states the following:

The US would have to support Israel and join in if Jerusalem were to take military action against Iran’s nuclear program, the Hebrew daily Maariv quoted diplomatic sources saying on Monday.

According to the report, Washington would also provide Israel with an air defense “umbrella” against the anticipated retaliation by Tehran and its proxies — notably Hezbollah — in the event of a strike. There is no indication from the report that the US would engage in offensive military action against Iran.

(Aaron Kalman, "US would have to actively support Israel if it attacks Iran," The Times of Israel, August 13, 2012)

The main reason Obama would attack before October is to avoid giving credibility to accusations that he is "Wagging the Dog" and planned an "October Surprise" to boost he reelection campaign. But if Israel is willing to provide political cover for him, and this appears to be the case, Obama has a lot more leeway in launching the attack. If Israel provides cover Obama can say he had "no choice" but to assist the Israelis in their efforts, even though he wanted to give negotiations more time. I still think Obama will seek to avoid October and that August 20-26 remains the most likely window, but he has more flexibility the way this is set up.

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