A Far Fetched Analysis On The Future Of Bahrain

[shiasoldier786]

I came across this article today- which I found quite interesting, nonetheless quite far fetched. It talks about the possibility that the US may be laying the ground for a 'cosmetic' regime change in Bahrain, to save its interests in the long term.

---------

The persistence of pro-democracy protests in Bahrain in the face of brutal repression may be giving Washington second thoughts about its unwavering support for the royal rulers of the strategically important Persian Gulf kingdom. Are we about to witness a cosmetic ‘regime change’ – not so much for the genuine sake of democratic rights in Bahrain, but more to save Washington’s vital interests across the region?

The tiny island situated between Saudi Arabia and Qatar serves as the base for the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet. The Fifth Fleet, comprising 16,000 personnel and 30 vessels, is a staging ground for US military projection across the Middle East and Central Asia. It also monitors the sealanes of the Persian Gulf through which some 30 per cent of the world’s total supply of traded oil passes every day.

Since the mainly Shia population of Bahrain took to the streets on 14 February in protest against the unelected Sunni monarchy of the Al Khalifa dynasty, Washington has given unrelenting support to the regime – invariably describing Bahrain as “an important ally”.

Apart from the US Fifth Fleet, the US has a free trade agreement with Bahrain, it sells some $20 million in weapons every year to the kingdom, and Bahrain is a financial hub for American and global capital.

Bahrain returned all these favours by lending Washington and its NATO allies diplomatic cover for the military intervention in Libya to oust Muammar Gaddafi. Bahrain, along with the other Gulf monarchies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, lined up dutifully behind the US/NATO intervention to give it a veneer of Arab approval, and thus head off charges that the aerial bombardment of Libya is a Western imperialist war of aggression. The Gulf Arab monarchies have also performed the same political function of providing diplomatic cover for the US/NATO sanctions and threats of intervention against Syria.

Bahrain and the other Gulf dictatorships (despite the irony of that) have thus played an important propaganda function. They have helped underpin the premise that the US and NATO involvement in Libya and Syria is guided by defence of human rights and democratic freedoms.

But now here’s the rub. Bahrain stands out as a glaring contradiction to stated US government claims regarding its interventions in Libya and Syria.

The fact that some 40 people have been killed in Bahrain for peacefully demanding democratic freedoms and basic human rights is an unmitigated damning indictment of the US-backed regime. Thousands have been injured – many horribly mutilated – from regime forces firing at unarmed peaceful demonstrators.

The apparent glaring contradiction between US foreign policy towards Bahrain and its espoused concerns for the people of Libya and Syria makes Bahrain under the Al Khalifa regime a serious liability to Washington’s “humanitarian” credibility.

Given the ongoing persecution against Shia workers (over 3,500 sacked); the preposterous use of military show trials to prosecute dozens of doctors, nurses, teachers, lawyers and athletes; the widespread condemnation by human rights groups of illegal mass detention and torture; the targeting of independent journalists and bloggers; the expulsion of hundreds of students and academics – the liability of the Al Khalifa regime to Washington’s foreign policy credibility grows ever more unwieldy by the day.

Added to these barbarities against peaceful civilians is the recent massive teargas deployment in Shia villages that are deemed to be supportive of the pro-democracy movement. Every night, villages are smothered in teargas by regime forces firing thousands of canisters into streets and homes. Local people have described the deployment a deliberate policy of “toxic terrorism” and “collective punishment”.

At least eight people have died from asphyxiation after regime forces fired teargas into homes. The latest victim was Jawad Ahmed (36). He died on 14 September, succumbing to teargas fired into his home in the village of Sitra. Relatives did not want to take the victim to the hospital out of fear that he would be arrested by regime forces – as is common in Bahrain where the hospitals have been under military command ever since the Saudi-led invasion to crackdown on the protesters in March. Only days before Jawad Ahmed’s death, a boy, Ali Jawad (14) was killed when he was shot in the head at close range with a teargas canister. [1]

The insoluble dilemma for the regime is that such fierce repression has signally failed to quash the pro-democracy protests. After nearly six months of state terrorism, the Bahraini protests against the regime have become more determined with 200,000-300,000 out of a population of less than 600,000 participating in demonstrations every week.

In June, Bahrain’s King Hamad Al Khalifa promised a return to “normal” with a raft of initiatives that were hailed, and quite possibly formulated, by Washington as a positive move for reform: these included the official lifting of the state of emergency; a process of “national dialogue”; an independent probe into human rights violations; and the transfer of all prosecutions from military to civilian courts.

However, unfortunately for the US-backed monarchy, these initiatives have not bought off the opposition, which continues to take to the streets calling for the downfall of the regime. Hence the regime has reneged on its initiatives and is resorting to full-on repression, which in turn is only emboldening the pro-democracy movement even more.

The unreformable Bahraini regime thus presents Washington with a thorny problem. Not only is the US government being shown to be on the side of tyrants in Bahrain, but its support of such a regime is exposing a chasm in Washington’s rhetoric about human rights in Libya, Syria and elsewhere across the Middle East. Bahrain may only be a tiny territory, but the reality of state terror and repression against unarmed civilians is blowing a huge hole in the US façade of protecting human rights and democratic freedom.

In this way, is the Al Khalifa regime in Bahrain in danger of hitting a threshold, which the US government can no longer tolerate because of its public relations liability? Recall how Washington supported to the last hour the dictatorships of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia. But when the public relations conundrum of supporting these tyrants became insufferable they were duly dispensed with. Could we be about to witness the same cynical abandonment of Washington’s tyrants in Bahrain?

The first sign of this shift may be gleaned from the remarkably critical coverage recently of the Bahraini regime in the New York Times and Washington Post. Given that these papers, along with other mainstream media, have so far given scant coverage to the violations in Bahrain, it is notable that these organs of US government thinking have come out with such unvarnished description of repression in the “important ally”.On 15 September, the New York Times ran a front-page story headlined: Bahrain Boils Under the Lid of Repression. “American willingness to look the other way has cast Washington as hypocritical,” bemoans the Times as it goes on to list a litany of human rights violations. “Backed by the armed intervention of Saudi Arabia, King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa declared martial law in March, and though it was repealed June 1, the reverberations of the repression still echo across the island.”

In an editorial piece on 10 September, the Washington Post went further and hinted at official US strategic concerns over Bahrain: “The regime… hasn’t delivered — and now it is risking a new explosion of unrest that could destabilize not just Bahrain but the region around it… If Bahrain blows up, vital US interests will be at risk. The [Obama] administration should use its influence now.”

The vital US interests at stake under the increasingly unreliable Al Khalifa regime in Bahrain are high. They include the US naval command of the Persian Gulf oil trade; the spillover of Shia unrest in Bahrain into top oil producer Saudi Arabia; and the boost that this would give Iran’s influence in the region.

But just as important is the ongoing damage that the Al Khalifa regime is inflicting on Washington’s carefully crafted claims of supporting human rights and democracy across the region – and in Libya and Syria in particular. Bahrain nails the lie in Washington’s rhetoric; it throws a clunking big spanner in US foreign policy wheels.

We shouldn’t be surprised therefore if the US Air Force is loading gold bullion for the hasty departure of King Hamad to Saudi Arabia.

Ralph Schoenman, author of a Hidden History of Zionism, points out: “The Al Khalifa feudal kleptocracy in Bahrain stinks in the nostrils of all fair-minded people. Its barbaric mode of rule has reached a point where the imperial masters shop furtively for a bourgeois surrogate to calm the storm before the mass struggle assumes armed and revolutionary proportions.

“Yet every tenuous attempt by US rulers to locate less tainted and detestable, if pliable figures, to extend the life of a fragile imperial hegemony will but hasten the mass uprising that this classic manoeuvre is designed to forestall.”

http://www.globalres...xt=va&aid=26630

Edited September 19, 2011 by shiasoldier786

[Noah-]

If Shias and anti-dictator forces in the region were united and Iran used its influence in Iraq.... They have the biggest card of the region in their hands. IRAQ! Soon the US needs to leave or stay or limit its military/diplomatic + economic presence in Iraq DEPENDING on Iraqis call and conditions [by the end of 2011]. They must ask the West, especially the US to stop supporting the 2nd Saddam in Bahrain and let the people of Bahrain to decide for themselves before allowing or making any agreement of influence, presence or investment in Iraq. It is good for Iraqis and Iranians as well, the more Wahabi-puppets presence & influence move westward, the less trouble and less bloodshed in Iraq.

That is what other countries normally do... As noted in this article above, Saudis and the little monafiq dictators asked the US to side with their oppression in Bahrain in order to gain their supports for invasion of Libya and the removal of Gaddafi.

Edited September 19, 2011 by Noah-

[Hameedeh]

We shouldn’t be surprised therefore if the US Air Force is loading gold bullion for the hasty departure of King Hamad to Saudi Arabia.

(bismillah)

(salam)

Yes, that ^ is probably true. My guess is that a moderate person will be found who can jump in and take over a provisional government, with elections promised next year some time. He will be friendly with regional nations and the West, but has been seen praying which make him trustworthy. If he has some type of headgear, such as Karzai, it would make things pleasant for all concerned. But not a turban. That would be too Islamic. :dry:

[Ibn Abdullah]

(bismillah)

(salam)

Yes, that ^ is probably true. My guess is that a moderate person will be found who can jump in and take over a provisional government, with elections promised next year some time. He will be friendly with regional nations and the West, but has been seen praying which make him trustworthy. If he has some type of headgear, such as Karzai, it would make things pleasant for all concerned. But not a turban. That would be too Islamic. :dry:

^^ This pretty much sums up how things work in the world

Whatever does happen, if the new government pursues friendly relations with the USA - especially after their unequivocal of the dictatorship that brutalised them - I will be very pessimistic about the future...

Edited September 19, 2011 by Ibn Abdullah

[Wahhabism4All]

That is what other countries normally do... As noted in this article above, Saudis and the little monafiq dictators asked the US to side with their oppression in Bahrain in order to gain their supports for invasion of Libya and the removal of Gaddafi.

Sort of like the monafiq dictators Hassan Nasrallah and Khameini championed all the Arab uprisings until it came to Syria (1000x worse than Bahrain)?

[Noah-]

Sort of like the monafiq dictators Hassan Nasrallah and Khameini championed all the Arab uprisings until it came to Syria (1000x worse than Bahrain)?

Ya, feel it. They will stand against Zionist forces be it in Syria or in Bahrain. In Bahrain it is Al-khalifa who is the puppet of Zionist and in Syria it is the Salafi-Takfiri movements who sold themselves to Zionists politics and built a government in exile under the leadership of NATO. Speak of your monafiq Qaradhawi, who supports Muslims in Egypt, but then supports dictator Khalifa Zionist agent in Bahrain and Zionist agents in Syria.

I have no idea, why admins of this site allow these kinds of people, a hater, low life person to come here and insult people and shia personalities. But, when we try to speak in their language, then we have problems!

[Wahhabism4All]

Ya, feel it. They will stand against Zionist forces be it in Syria or in Bahrain. In Bahrain it is Al-khalifa who is the puppet of Zionist and in Syria it is the Salafi-Takfiri movements who sold themselves to Zionists politics and built a government in exile under the leadership of NATO. Speak of your monafiq Qaradhawi, who supports Muslims in Egypt, but then supports dictator Khalifa Zionist agent in Bahrain and Zionist agents in Syria.

I have no idea, why admins of this site allow these kinds of people, a hater, low life person to come here and insult people and shia personalities. But, when we try to speak in their language, then we have problems!

I was responding to your hater post, to show that your political leaders are monifiqs when it comes to Syria, who have political interests in mind foremost. If you are not able to see the hypocrisy with an open mind, you don't belong in this discussion. You are the one labelling any Sunni who disagrees with the Shia political view as a "Wahhabi", just like a Zionist labels anyone who criticizes Israel as an "anti-Semetic". You are the one with no heart for the over 2,700 Syrian Muslims killed (latest UN report). If you want to have an intelligent discussion, this fake "Wahhabi" name-calling is not going to work. Step up to the big league, son.

Learn to type in regular BLACK font. We are not in kindergarten anymore, where colors "wow" us.

[Hussien]

This little bangladeshi guy Justic... is so offended by peaceful conclusion of the Syrian crisis as if someone choked his loved one to death. If it aint beheading or turban bombing for these filthy salafist it aint Islam. And its funny to see how he is going kamikaze by insulting Rahbar. Somebody put this retarded salafi out of his misery and BAN HIM.

[Noah-]

I was responding to your hater post, to show that your political leaders are monifiqs when it comes to Syria, who have political interests in mind foremost. If you are not able to see the hypocrisy with an open mind, you don't belong in this discussion. You are the one labelling any Sunni who disagrees with the Shia political view as a "Wahhabi", just like a Zionist labels anyone who criticizes Israel as an "anti-Semetic". You are the one with no heart for the over 2,700 Syrian Muslims killed (latest UN report). If you want to have an intelligent discussion, this fake "Wahhabi" name-calling is not going to work. Step up to the big league, son.

Learn to type in regular BLACK font. We are not in kindergarten anymore, where colors "wow" us.

Well, the problem is that lately any religious Sunni we see is nothing but a FULL WAHABI.... You are an example here... You are here like other Wahabis: mad, shouting and barking instead of discussing in a civilized manner. Making excuse on anything to insult Shias, for a Wahabi even the font-color of a text which is really non of your business is something that you need to show madness on and complain like a loser. Grow up kid!

You see, you Wahabi Salafi Takfiris are the cause of fitna on this planet. You people are simple jealous because of Shias government in Iran and Shias improvement worldwide.

What is your religion anyways? Killing innocent people in mosques, markets, churches, and in your entire history you failed to send at least a few Wahabi groups to Palestine to fight real soldiers in Israel. That is all what you losers are.

When it came to IRAQ you all were barking that Shias sided with America... Where we all know that Saddam was the worst fascist and atheist on the planet and America's invasion wasn't Shias fault, but still you sided with those Baathist against Shias... by excusing America you killed millions of innocent Iraqis. What about now? When it comes to SYRIA, now you forgot all about NATO and America support to Wahabi-Takfiri movements? Now, all you see is the innocent 2700 people? What happened to close to a million innocent Iraqis killed in their homes, in their mosques and in their markets? Those killings were justified under the pretext of fighting the Iraqi government? While you monafiq people forgot all about American presence in Bahrain, in Kuwait, in Saudi and other Gulf states..

If you don't feel sympathy for innocent people of Bahrain and close to a million Iraqis killed by wild animal Sunnis, I have no reason to feel sorry for 2700 members of terrorist groups in Syria. Actually, more than half of that 2700 were killed by Salafi terrorist groups and were government soldiers and police.

[Wahhabism4All]

I have no reason to feel sorry for 2700 members of terrorist groups in Syria.

After reading this, the little respect I had for you is gone. You clearly have no heart. This thread is about Bahrain, I don't want to derail it. I don't know what your level of education is, but join my Syria thread so I can dismiss your mentality even more: http://www.shiachat.com/forum/index.php?/topic/234992766-if-you-are-human-do-not-support-the-syrian-regime/

[Noah-]

After reading this, the little respect I had for you is gone. You clearly have no heart. This thread is about Bahrain, I don't want to derail it. I don't know what your level of education is, but join my Syria thread so I can dismiss your mentality even more: http://www.shiachat....-syrian-regime/

Another tactic of the Wahabis. You started on this topic, stay here and respond. Respond to everything you brought up and to my replies, and stop insulting Shia personalities! Why you quote a half sentence... AND ignore everything else... Have the courage to discuss the issues you brought up!

I already refuted many Wahabi-Takfiris before you on Syria's topics... When it comes to you, you are not even worth of a debate or a proper discussion. You are not even in the position of asking people's level of education; in my entire life I never met a Wahabi who is educated in any field except doing Takfir 24/6, insult Shias or try to misquoate Shias texts and claim they are Rafidhis and express madness on the entire world people and religions.

[Wahhabism4All]

Another tactic of the Wahabis. You started on this topic, stay here and respond. Respond to everything you brought up and to my replies, and stop insulting Shia personalities! Why you quote a half sentence... AND ignore everything else... Have the courage to discuss the issues you brought up!

I already refuted many Wahabi-Takfiris before you on Syria's topics... When it comes to you, you are not even worth of a debate or a proper discussion. You are not even in the position of asking people's level of education; in my entire life I never met a Wahabi who is educated in any field except doing Takfir 24/6, insult Shias or try to misquoate Shias texts and claim they are Rafidhis and express madness on the entire world people and religions.

No, this thread is about Bahrain. I only sent that one reply to you because of your hate post. I'm asking you to join my Syria thread for continuing the discussion.

If your brain can comprehend this, I am an average day-to-day Sunni, not a "Wahhabi-Takfiri" (whatever that is). I'm not here to get into a religious debate, though it seems the blood that runs through your veins is all about sectarianism. I'm discussing a political situation. Shia personalities? I can't criticize Shiite political leaders for their hypocrisy in deaths of fellow Muslims? What kind of close-minded person are you? Are you a high school kid?

[Waiting for HIM]

No, this thread is about Bahrain. I only sent that one reply to you because of your hate post. I'm asking you to join my Syria thread for continuing the discussion.

If your brain can comprehend this, I am an average day-to-day Sunni, not a "Wahhabi-Takfiri" (whatever that is). I'm not here to get into a religious debate, though it seems the blood that runs through your veins is all about sectarianism. I'm discussing a political situation. Shia personalities? I can't criticize Shiite political leaders for their hypocrisy in deaths of fellow Muslims? What kind of close-minded person are you? Are you a high school kid?

Justice4all - you are sick man, you are seriously sick. Can you not see what Wahabis are doing to Syria? Can you not see what Wahabis are doing to Pakistan (today Wahabiis un-boarded 50 Shia Muslims, women and children included, from a bus going to Iran for ziarat, and killed them in Nazi style machine gun massacre). Man you Wahabis, the mentally blind low life prostitutes of the Zionies, you all deserve the brothels of Israel and Russia. Why are you coming here trying to discuss anything with us Shias?

Syria, may be a dictatorship, is at least not selling their souls off to Zionies. If you are sincerely a Sunni, why did you not start a thread about Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, why Syria?

[Noah-]

No, this thread is about Bahrain. I only sent that one reply to you because of your hate post. I'm asking you to join my Syria thread for continuing the discussion.

If your brain can comprehend this, I am an average day-to-day Sunni, not a "Wahhabi-Takfiri" (whatever that is). I'm not here to get into a religious debate, though it seems the blood that runs through your veins is all about sectarianism. I'm discussing a political situation. Shia personalities? I can't criticize Shiite political leaders for their hypocrisy in deaths of fellow Muslims? What kind of close-minded person are you? Are you a high school kid?

Grow up! You even do not understand the difference between insult & criticism! It is clear to the whole world on whose sectarian and whose not. Show me a simple Sunni scholar or a country or movement who is not sectarian and not thinking as the time of ignorance. All you have is 'hate' for Shias and view Shias as the 'number one' and the 'ONLY concern' of your life. But, you come here insult Nasrallah and Khamenei calling them names, instead of refuting my points (who was responsible for that reply) and not any Shia leader and then expecting us to be nice to you?

[Yousif]

Salam ,

i really like global research ive been reading from that site for years , and now its wide spread im glad.

well i really think that their opinion is spot on . Obama just mentioned al wefaq today. al wefaq also said they are ready to go into direct negotiations.

This means two things to me , yes exposure is putting alot of pressure on the us and the international community .

some one is going to have to be americas new pawn .

I think al wefaq may state their requirements and the us will fulfil them under the condition that they pick the new head or prime minister... and Allahul 'alem