Interesting Iran Predictions

[curious american 0]

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a mathematician who uses game theory and computers to predict events. He has been called the New Nostradamus for his accuracy. In May, he

about his methods, and in that speech he highlighted his predictions about Iran. It lasts 20 minutes. To boil it down:

1. Iranian government will tone down its nuclear ambitions to the point where it will develop weapons-grade nuclear material only for research purposes.

2. Real power rests not with the mullahs or even with the Supreme Leader, but with the moneyed interests of Iranian society: the banker, the oil people, the bazaris. Currently quiet and moderate mullahs (based in Qom) will become more vocal.

3. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's influence will decline and has been in decline.

p.s.: For all you conspiracy theorists out there, by which I mean just about all of you, he consults for the CIA and he is employed at the right-wing Hoover Institution at Stanford University, the same place that gave us one of our dumbest secretaries of State in quite some time, Condoleezza Rice. By the way, I had never heard of this guy until I saw a documentary about him tonight on the History Channel. I don't know if he's for real or just another quack self-promoter. The implication of his predictions are that Raftsanjani, the Council of Experts, and the clerics in Qom are going to come up with some means of moving Ahmadinejad aside and negotiating on the nuclear program. It will be interesting to see what happens, huh?

Edited June 26, 2009 by curious american

[baradar_jackson 8,075]

Nuclear energy should be non-negotiable

I doubt that Hashemi would compromise to such a point... nuclear energy is one of the few things we can all agree on

enerjiye hastei haghe mosallame mast...

[curious american 0]

Nuclear energy should be non-negotiable

I doubt that Hashemi would compromise to such a point... nuclear energy is one of the few things we can all agree on

enerjiye hastei haghe mosallame mast...

If you actually had watched the video, you wouldn't have made that comment.

[Moraqeb ol Tariqat 0]

If you actually had watched the video, you wouldn't have made that comment.

Its too popular - many people voted for Ahmadinejad simply because of his stance on the program.

Anyway, its too late: 7,000 centrifuges are spinning.

[curious american 0]

Its too popular - many people voted for Ahmadinejad simply because of his stance on the program.

Anyway, its too late: 7,000 centrifuges are spinning.

If you watch the video, which I really do think is interesting and worthwhile, you'll see why these comments are missing the guy's point. I want to repeat that I'm not saying that the guy is right. I really just heard about him yesterday. I'm curious (befitting my moniker here), and somewhat skeptical of his "powers." Yet, at the same time, intrigued.

Edited June 26, 2009 by curious american

[SyedTee 0]

If you watch the video, which I really do think is interesting and worthwhile, you'll see why these comments are missing the guy's point. I want to repeat that I'm not saying that the guy is right. I really just heard about him yesterday. I'm curious (befitting my moniker here), and somewhat skeptical of his "powers." Yet, at the same time, intrigued.

Howdy curious, President Ahmedinajad's authority has probably declined with the recent public hullabaloo. The number of MPs who turned up for his party may be a testament to that. But when it comes to key issues which concern the West and which underpin the blanket media coverage of the last fortnight (namely Iran's right to nuclear power, support for Gaza, hatred of the still-expanding state of Israel etc) there is no division at all and I'm afraid there never will be. As for Qom, many clerics simply prefer to stay out of politics and above the fray.

So, what exactly are you curious about? Your moniker seems a rather convenient "hijab" which I'm afraid has slipped a little with some of your messages in the last few days. You know, from a Shia viewpoint, it's always important to keep a consistent hijab :Hijabi:

[Learned 6]

1. Iranian government will tone down its nuclear ambitions to the point where it will develop weapons-grade nuclear material only for research purposes.

No comment.

2. Real power rests not with the mullahs or even with the Supreme Leader, but with the moneyed interests of Iranian society: the banker, the oil people, the bazaris. Currently quiet and moderate mullahs (based in Qom) will become more vocal.

Untrue. Iran is and has been an oligarchy comprised primarily from the post-revolution clerical ranks (non-dissidents). The supreme leader is still the most powerful single person in Iran, but his power is in decline and his status is greatly diminished from that of Ayatollah Khomeini; the most powerful non-clerical body in the country are the revolutionary guards.

3. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's influence will decline and has been in decline.

Ahmadinejad, as President of Iran, has almost no influence in Iran and makes no real decisions. The only thing he effects as President is the budget, and he as an individual is nothing more than a small part of a much larger and more powerful faction in Iran, which I will not label; this faction may very well be more influential and powerful than Ayatollah Khamenei right now.