This question has been on my mind ever since the “opposition” took over largely bloodlessly. I have often wondered whether some sort of “deal” was made. As far back as 2013 Russia and/or Iran supposedly pushed Syria to relinquish its WMD. After 2015 Russia also largely avoided confronting the U.S./NATO and/or Israel over Syria, instead letting Israel strike Syrian targets, making a deal with Turkey over Idlib, and allowing the West-backed SDF to control the eastern oilfields. Now there are reports that Turkey persuaded Russia and/or Iran not to oppose the takeover of Syria by the “opposition”. In return, Assad privately agreed to step down, knowing that Russia and/or Iran was in no position to help, or would not. The Turkish Foreign Minister even claimed that Assad had only feigned opposition to Israel and was never on the “Resistance”’s side!
Turkey’s claim about Assad’s relation to Israel is confusing. On the one hand Israel seemed to dislike Assad. During the Syrian “civil war” Israeli officials (i.e., Defence Minister Avigdor Lieberman) openly stated that they would not support Assad staying on. He was simply too closely linked to Iran and/or Hezbollah—or so these Israelis claimed. The IDF also provided support to various anti-Assad “rebels”, including FSA factions that may have harboured al-Qaida (Jabhat al-Nusra, now HTS). If I recall correctly, ISIS/Daesh claimants also operated next to the Golan Heights for a time. On the other hand, Israel and Assad mostly avoided direct confrontation, the latter refusing to answer Israeli airstrikes. Israel only really made an effort to destroy Syria’s military after Assad fled Damascus (or stepped down?). So what is the truth here?
Did Assad fall so easily because he was something other than he appeared to be, or was there a secret deal? Or are both true? Is there a third option?