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In the Name of God بسم الله


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About Akritas

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  1. I don't actually think a change in government in Egypt will lead to any real change in foreign policy. The basic fact is that Egypt is broke, and likely to remain so for some time. Any government is going to be reduced to trying to raise money from the US and the Gulf to try to ward off street protests (again) and that's about the extent of what it can really do. Even Morsi's speech on Syria was hot air. His country has no money to send, nor to pay for weapons. His call for a no-fly zone was subtly qualified by saying it should be approved by the UN, which he knows perfectly well isn't going
  2. Given that the Salafi an-Nur party is as likely as anyone else to come to prominence when/if the MB is out of the picture, I'm not sure that the MB is the worse alternative from a Shia view. I have to admit I don't really see the point of this, Morsi hasn't been perfect and I'd criticize him on several grounds, but he doesn't seem so bad as all that and I don't really see anyone better emerging. Also this seems likely to lead to political turmoil, which will make the economic issues worse, not better. If these protests are mainly about bread and gas, then what happens when 6-12 months down
  3. Without claiming any knowledge about this particular individual, the usual practice from Carthaginian times to the present day is to group fighters of the same language into a single combat unit. Then you just have to translate orders coming down the chain of command i.e. protect this building or occupy this area. As I understand there are at least several hundred Iranians in the Abu Fadl Al Abbas brigades there are enough for a unit and it would only take one Farsi-Arabic translator, which is quite feasible.
  4. Actually Salafist parties have mostly been opposed to Morsi at this particular juncture.
  5. It's a highly unlikely situation, at best. Iran has no need or desire to fight a guerrilla war against the Kurds on Kurdish territory, since it would be very costly and they might loose. It also might follow them home, they have Kurds in Iran. There is no real chance of this happening. If Iran really thinks it needs to smack the Kurds around, they will do it with artillery like they have against the PPK in the past. The Kurds have no good answer to that. A much more likely scenario is another Turkish invasion. It isn't impossible that a future Baghdad government will try to destroy the KRG wit
  6. Iran can't really help the protesters in Bahrain that way, since the US navy controls the seas. Iran doesn't have enough boats for a multi-brigade attack across water even if the US navy magically disappeared anyway. It gives it a sympathetic local media and moral support, realistically it can't do much more.
  7. Is this actually being considered? I wrote it off as a silly rumor.
  8. Given the location of the recorder, I'm not sure how it could have been taken without soldiers noticing. If they noticed they surely didn't view the recorder as a threat. Now, it is possible somebody would take such a video as a 'trophy', but I do I have to wonder how such a video could have come into the hands of opposition supporters. It also wouldn't be that hard a scene to fake, so meh, who knows.
  9. Weapons from Libya, being moved via Lebanon, yep. Called it months ago. Supply and demand.
  10. No, I don't say that they'll do anything about it in the short term. But if and when issues come up where the GCC wants Iraq's help, this will be remembered. That's what I mean by 'relations'. Iraq under Saddam was disliked by the GCC of course, and not for sectarian reasons as you say. He was disliked for basically for posing a threat to them. But the new government isn't Saddamist or Pan-Arabist, it is Shia and I have every reason to think that the GCC fears the aid it may give Iran as well as their own Shia populations. They don't like it because it is more or less on the other side in the
  11. The Jaysh al Mahdi was disbanded by Muqtatda in 2008. He retains only a small cadre called the Promised Day Brigades.
  12. I'm not an expert on Yemen, but I know PDRY was only on the South, and that the current government is based more on the former N. Yemen than the South. I think it is pretty safe to say the Turks, the Zaidi Imamate and the Northern Republic all played a bigger role than PDRY in building up the North in terms of infrastructure and institutions. As far as public infrastructure in the South, I wouldn't know. It's certainly possible most of it was built in the Marxist period. I don't know anything about the events you mention either. But Yemen is a very fractured country and there are a million rea
  13. *coughs* Were you trying to quote my post? I've never been drunk in my life, let alone posted that way. I am typing with a very sticky keyboard and autocorrect, so sometimes I've noticed my diction isn't quite proper. But be that as it may, there is nothing particularly controversial about noticing that Da'wa is now one of the most powerful political groups in Iraq and I stand by my statement that they are more powerful than during the 1980's. I am also fully aware that the Shia in the GCC states are not treated well or respected by the (mostly) Salafist rulers. (Oman isn't Salafi but nevermi
  14. Yeah, now they control the oil pipelines and water of the better part of Iraq, and they don't need to bomb the embassies because they staff them. They are nowhere near as powerful as the 1980's. Seriously, this combined with Iraq's recent statements on Syria aren't going to be good for Iraq/GCC relations. It will almost certainly further the drift toward Iran, as Iran is in any event the only serious ally available for anyone opposed to the GCC.
  15. Trick is, there is no way for Iran to supply or intervene with the US Navy controlling the waters as it does. And the Sunni population does seem to be rallying around the government. I would guess both the Bahrain and Syrian uprisings will falter as in both cases the governments had more aggressive outside backers than the rebels, and in both cases the sectarian issue has prevented a truly united uprising.
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