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Ibn Tayyar
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Posts posted by Ibn Tayyar
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@mahmood8726 Check the latest announcement letter to the Arab League by Hamas, where they said would support a new Palestinian rule in Gaza, whether it be by technocrats or something else (what Egypt is proposing).
As far as weapons goes, we will see how the negotiations continue. The above is already a Hamas concession from its pre-October 7 position, where it (and its allies) ruled Gaza alone. There have been many "redlines" which have turned out to be empty lines, we will see if this one holds.
All in all, this war is turning out to be useless, with more losses than wins for Hamas and its allies, and a complete disaster for the lives of the Palestinians. And I believe as the negotiations continue, this weak situation & position will become clearer and clearer.
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On 2/15/2025 at 4:52 AM, mahmood8726 said:
It can, but it will be extreemly difficult and will take a very long time, it will be hell on earth for Palestinians in Gaza.
That's completely false, hamas for the last 15 months has been repurpousing unexploded Israeli ordinance into rockets they fired at israeli terrorists or mines for tanks. Hamas has litterally been acknowledged to be extreemly self reliant because of the seige and this brutal war that's been imposed on it.
I don't know how serious this point is. Having the ability to repurpose unexploded ordinance does not mean you have the ability to clear thousands of unexploded ordinance dug deep in the ground under rubble and completely destroyed camps. There are hundreds of thousands of civilians at risk of stepping over things they don't know when they return to their homes. Curious kids, senior citzens and women - and probably most men - won't know what to look for or how to avoid not blowing up. You are Lebanese, you know that even decades after war there is still risk of unexploded ordinance lying around. Even in countries that are supposed safe such as Europe, there are still fears about places with mines from WW2. I can't believe you brushed this aside based on Hamas being able to repurpose bombs. This isn't a military capability issue alone, this is a civil engineering issue aseell. How can you clear rubble safely - to rebuild Gaza - with unexploded ordinance lying around? You need specialised construction and international support for sure.
On 2/15/2025 at 4:52 AM, mahmood8726 said:."All the sources declined to be identified because the issue involves international or domestic sensitivities and they were not authorised to speak in public."
"three Egyptian security sources said"
Etc...
this is comming from an unreliable paper like reuters who has been caught making stuff up all the time, so its more cautious to wait it out and see how this pans out, as this article is at best unsubstantiated speculation.
but lets say that happens, lets say reuters is kind of right and something like this ever were to happen and hamas gives in the pressure:
If hamas were to relinquish, it would not be to the PA, hamas will not give up to the PA, since they're not independent, they're Israeli puppets, i dont see this happening with PA, especially when that very hamas called for escalations in the west bank from resistance groups.
If hamas were to relinquish, it will most likley be PIJ, maybe pflp, etc... some group that will be elected by the people in Gaza that is aligned with the factions mentionned above that isn't PA.
Giving up to the PA is giving up to Israel, unless the PA shows good will and that they won't somehow be Israeli puppets in gaza, hamas will fight to the death.
As for Qatar, they can wish what they want, unless they want hamas to be fully backed by iran?
Here you go:
https://www.newarab.com/news/hamas-says-ready-relinquish-power-gaza-conditions
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33 minutes ago, mahmood8726 said:
Its not trumps statements, its what america and israel have been planning all along. Under the Biden admin America pressured Egypt to take in Palestinians multiple times and Egypt refused, this is just America being more open about their ambitions. Trump is just an idiot who opens his mouth and says the quiet part out loud.
But I understand, when sayed hassan nassralah a few weeks before going out of this world even mentionned that israels plan was to ethnically cleanse people from gaza into neighboring countries including jordan, Jordan laughed at him and called him insane.
And this plan is insane and had a huge chance of failing, but you underestimate the stupidity and ego of the US government and the Israeli government.
I don't remeber hamas agreeing to relinquishing their power in Gaza. Israel can demand it all they want, if they want a war, hamas will give them another quagmire if we're being objective here.
This was during the war, it was when China was bridging the gaps between the two, but after PA did the shameless stuff it did in the west bank, I doubt it.
As for Arab States pouring money into Gaza or no, I am not aware of anything here, I know Egypt proposed a rebuilding plan without displacing Palestinians because they're sh**ting bricks on the thought of accepting 2 million refugees.
They won't and if they push for it and there will be a higher chance of instability within their countries from a more and more angry populace.
Sure, but most lebanese people I've talked to are angry this ceasefire is being violated by israel like this and the Palestinians in Gaza they heard what America just said, Palestinians in Gaza will almost all rally behind hamas now after Trump opened his mouth like an idiot and said the quiet part out loud.
The only ones in Lebanon that are happy with things now are some whiny liberals/diaspora on reddit and the lebanese fascist christians who were promised that hezbollah was going to be destroyed and they would have a stronger fascist army in Lebanon like decades ago.
The truth is Gaza cannot be rebuilt without international aid. Hamas will have to make concessions or Gazans will live in tents surrounded by rubble for decades, if not forever.
Gaza has no building material of its own, it has no expertise in removing unexploded ordinance, and it has no way of supplying the basic needs of people.
The Arab States have alot of leverage on Hamas here, because only through them could aid enter Gaza.
Part of the Egyptian rebuilding plan (which is supported by other Arabs) is that Hamas has no role in Gaza's governance.
You can read about it here:
It is very likely that there will be an Arab League consensus on supporting the Egyptian proposal.
Qatar, which has alot of leverage on Hamas, also believes the PA should return to Gaza:
A Hamas leader already said in the past they are ready to relinquish control to an "independent" group:
"What we are calling for is a Palestinian unity government, formed from technocrats who are not affiliated to any faction but supported from all factions … to run the situation in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank," he says.
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/16/nx-s1-5077757/gaza-war-hamas-leader-basem-naim-doha-interview
The above statement is actually in line with what the Egyptians are proposing today.
Don't think for a second that we will return to the pre-October 7 world. Hamas is under pressure and will concede on many points in order to push the deal to Phase 3.
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20 minutes ago, mahmood8726 said:
This is still too early to tell. I'm waiting for more weeks or months.
You guys keep forgetting that when the war in 2006 ended, israel violated the ceasefire like this and bombed many times until they felt good about themselves and their ego was satiated and then they stopped bombing and instead decided to violate the ceasefire 36 000 times with surveillance drones. The only reason people forget this, is because back then it wasn't televised, but Israel behaved just like this, they bombed even after the ceasefire.
At the end of the day, it seems that hezb won, they forced Israel into a ceasefire because they probably knew Israel was going to sign one in Gaza. Israel wanted to succede in separating hezbollah from Gaza so that they could wipe hamas, they did not achieve this, instead the ceasefire in lebanon made them do a ceasefire in Gaza, achieving what hezb wanted. That is until now, if Israel decides to restart this war with hamas and go with their insane ethnic cleansing campaign, then there won't be a winner or loser because the war would have restarted.
But as I said in the begening, it's too early to tell, especially after these insane ambitions of America on Gaza which might trigger a regional war. It could be that you're right and hezb just doesn't want to go against the partially pro us Lebanese state, or you might be wrong and they want to save their weaponry for a regional war or they just don't want to fall for Israeli provocation and they know that Israelis will tire themselves out like a crying toddler throwing a tantrum because they know Israelis and their tactics.
Don't take the statements of Trump and his minions seriously. They know that a plan to forcibly evacuate Gazans is dead on arrival.
The true plan is to push Gaza between two choices:
1) no plans or money for rebuilding Gaza will come from the international community if Hamas remains in power, and this is obviously a cause of instability for the likes of Egypt, and this would also be a way to pressure Hamas. On top of that, there is a chance the war will continue, as Hamas relinquishing power will be the main Israeli demand in Phase 2 of the deal, in order for the ceasefire to continue onto Phase 3.
2) there will be money for rebuilding that will pour in from rich Arab States and the West if Hamas does relinquish power.
Already there is momentum against Hamas within the Arab League, and I mean specifically from Qatar and Egypt, the main mediators, to relinquish power.
Hamas has already stated it is willing to work with the PA and other Arab States on the future of Gaza's governance.
The West & Israel, aswell as the Arabs, seek Gaza's demilitarization and dehamasification. I don't know if they will achieve this goal ultimately, but you can expect alot of concessions in the negotiations from Hamas's standpoint.
I assume Gazans, just like the Lebanese, have no appetite for the continuation of the war after the fighting has already stopped and would like to move on with their lives.
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@mahmood8726 We have now seen how the events have played out since the ceasefire. Hundreds of Israeli breaches and yet the ceasefire (from Lebanon's perspective) is holding strong. Eventually the Israelis will withdraw as the ceasefire states, but only after hundreds of airstrikes and at a much later date than agreed.
Do you not see how Israel was able to achieve escalation dominance and act with near impunity, and impose alot of its will on the ground - and that this due to a failure of deterrence from the Axis of Resistance?
Think 3 or 4 years ago, every Israeli airstrike that resulted in a Hezbollah member death in Syria was responded to by Hezbollah.
Now the Israelis bomb the South all over even after a ceasefire and there's hardly a response.
This is loss of deterrence. And one of the reasons is that Hezbollah is simply not as strong as it used to be politically within Lebanon, and will not risk the renewal of hostilities due to domestic pressure.
We can now see from the actions of the new Lebanese Government that they will probably engage in a more hostile approach to Hezbollah compared to previous Lebanese Governments.
The geopolitical reality has changed in Israel's favour following October 7. There is no reason to deny that.
- Abu Nur and Ashvazdanghe
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On 2/7/2025 at 11:13 AM, Abu_Zahra said:
Wa alaikum as salam yes, the aimmah (عليه السلام) didn't perform such an act therefore it is not from their teachings.
Who said the A'immah never cursed their enemies? We literally have authentic narrations commanding us to curse and abuse the innovators, and some of these "sahabah" fall into these categories, such as this famous & authentic hadith.
“The Messenger of Allah ﷺ said, ‘When you find the people of doubt and innovation after me, show your dissassociation from them and increase your insults against them, speaking against them, and exposing them, so that they do not corrupt Islam, and (so that) people be warned against them and avoid learning their innovations. Allah will record good deeds for you because of that and elevate your ranks in the Hereafter.’”
https://thaqalayn.net/hadith/2/1/163/4
We even have hadiths pertaining specifically to cursing the Shaykhayn.
‘What were the children of Ya'qub ((عليه السلام)), were they prophets?’ He said: ‘No, but they were the grandchildren of the children of the Prophets, and they did not depart from the world except as happy, repentant, and remembered what they had done, and the Shaykhayn departed from the world, they did not repent nor did they ever remember what they had done to the Commander of The Faithful ((عليه السلام)), so upon these two be the curse of Allah, the angels, and the people altogether.‘
https://thaqalayn.net/hadith/8/1/343/1
And other similar reliable hadiths:
https://thaqalayn.net/hadith/8/1/340/1
In the Qur'an, there are numerous Verses pertaining to cursing the enemies of Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَ تَعَالَى).
Indeed, those who abuse Allāh and His Messenger - Allāh has cursed them in this world and the Hereafter and prepared for them a humiliating punishment. [33:57]
We know from authentic narrations that those who abuse the Ahlulbayt (عليه السلام) have abused the Prophet (saww), and therefore have abused Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَ تَعَالَى) and are worthy of cursing.
Finally, the following is part of an authentic hadith on those who "refrain" from engaging in bara'ah in the form of cursing.
The Messenger of Allah ﷺ said: Whoever refrains from cursing the one who is cursed by Allah [considering it a sin] then upon him be the curse of Allah.
- AbdusSibtayn and Eddie Mecca
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Because he is a corrupt dictator who isn't liked by his people. His Army behaved like a corrupt gang, overly relying on foreign sources of assistance while incompetence and bribery spread through the ranks.
Unlike his own forces, the Turkish-backed militants were highly motivated and were actually preparing for battle.
Assad's own allies such as Iran and Russia were said to have told him many times to pay attention to his own domestic situation, but he ignored these requests because he is simply an Arab kleptocrat.
I think everyone was surprised that he fell so quick, but after the fact it can be claimed at the same time that some may have seen the writing on the wall, and that the day will come when his rule will end.
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On 12/23/2024 at 1:33 PM, mahmood8726 said:
Neither is there a will for another fighting to continue in Israel, as I stated above. This is besides the point and you missed an important point I mentionned, resistance is fueled by people realizing how evil Israel is, people who had doubts, will join the cause, ask most lebanese people now how they feel about the ceasefire and they're angry Israel is getting away with this, Israel for example destroyed 35% of naqoura before the ceasefire, whilst they destroyed 75% of the city in the last 3 weeks, lebanese people are realizing how useless the lebanese army or international law is at defending Lebanon. And I didn't mention anything about Gaza, I mentionned Lebanon specifically, hoshtein is even planning a visit it seems because the ceasefire is not holding too well, Israel has violated the ceasefire 280 times so far. Nonetheless, hezbollah 2 days ago said they will wait these 60 days and they don't want to give Israel a pretext to attack Lebanon in the remaining of these 60 days, they will focus on Lebanon in this next month.
Remeber in 2006, media was not as present as today, the lebanese people as a whole are seeing israels serious violations.
280 violations is not "some breaches", what Israel is doing is not minor, but again you could be right, after 2006, Israel violated the ceasefire like this by bombing lebanon badly, dahiyeh was 90% destroyed(worse than today) and when they felt good after violating the ceasefire with bombings, they stopped and they only violated another 30000 times with surveillance drones.
The ones that were severely damaged, hezb did severely damage many bases, especially border ones with heavy burkan missiles, Israelis are saying this, not me.
You litterally have hundreds of videos evidence of hezb destroying major parts of a base and killing personnel and you doubt they did anything when they weren't recording it. And you're using ww2 as an example too which is almost a century ago in 20 years.
Hezb was using burkan 500kg warhead missiles on many of these bases, inflicting serious damage, especially on most of the border bases.
And where did I mention "disable"? I dont remeber saying this. Is it because I said "lost" whilst trying to say they lost a lot of material in these bases? I'm going to be clearer here, I'm referring to the damage to the bases and their material losses which will complicate things for Israel, these bases could still be operational. If I said disable bases or entirely render bases useless, then I meant something else, the bases being out of service are probably a minority I am assuming.
At this point I'm not even going to bother with this, you're making me repeat myself a lot and you're ignoring Israeli sources themselves by using examples from aomost half a century ago or some armchair millitary analysis(no offense meant) to go on to claim that Israel would just recover fast, when their own sources are claiming otherwise, because bases are supposed to take damage and remain operational. Then you're making me repeat myself on Syria for the 4th time now.
You still missed my point entirely and decided to focus on millitary losses and started comparing a conventional army supplied by America to a guerilla fighting group as if this is supposed to be some reciprocal fight. This misses the entire point of guerilla warfare and how they slowly exhaust bigger armies than them despite suffering more losses than said conventional army. They're not supposed to do a shock n awe operation.
Please reread what I put above in my previous post, to understand the actual important point here. Objectives are what matter. Other people here have also put emphasis on this my friend.
I don't believe we are getting anywhere with this discussion, so I will agree to disagree and we will wait until the ceasefire date passes and see what transpires after that. Time will give us the answer.
But just a question: can I ask which Israeli sources have said Israeli military bases will take years to recover, and that they have suffered the amount of damage you claim they have? I'm curious. I have tried to look for these sources but couldn't find anything.
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On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:
The front in Lebanon and war in Lebanon, not the war with Gaza which could cause the war in Lebanon to reignite easily.
I doubt there is anything that could happen in Gaza that would reignite the war in Lebanon. There is no more will for another round of fighting in Lebanon.
Despite some breaches, the ceasefire is holding and we are halfway through.
On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:Yes over Syria, I said this a million times. Where did I claim Syria was a success? Obviously hezbollah lost in Syria, that's what lead hezbollah I beleive to compromise on Gaza.
I believe the Axis has viewed the war with Israel as one war with multiple fronts, and Syria was one of the fronts.
I believe it could then be considered that in terms of wins and losses, Israel is the clear geopolitical victor of this war that started on October 7. Would you agree?
On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:That's the geopolitical aspect of it, not the millitary aspect of it. Yes they lost a lot millitarly to the point where the desertion rate was high. They lost a lot of equipment and bases too, not just "some", many of these bases will take years to repair. Again, look at Israelis themselves and what they're saying. Having better positions in mountains in Syria does not negate the millitary looses Israel suffered. As for Israel invading lebanon from another side of the border, hezbollah also prepared for this, there were warnings for months that Israel was going to send mechanized divisions and invade the Golan and Syria and try and attack from the north east of Lebanon instead of the south. Spoiler alert, Israel won't succede again when they decide to go full retard again due to their arrogance and beleif that hezbollah is finished because of Syria being gone.
Which bases take years to repair? Any competent engineering division could easily fix a base on short notice. In WW2, bases were subjected to much more ferocious firepower and still remained active. Bases are designed to absorb significant attacks, otherwise there would be no use of them at all. Look at Ukraine, where some bases have been hit mutliple times by heavy missiles and have remained and continue to remain of importance.
To "disable" a base, you don't just cause cracks in concrete, you must destroy or damage actual equipment or kill personnel. I don't doubt that Hezbollah was able to do so, in fact I believe it was able to inflict alot of pain on Israel, I just don't agree with you on how valuable this damage really is.
In the 1973 war, Israeli losses in equipment and personnel were much more significant in both numbers and importance, than in this war. Way more, not even close. Yet they were able to finish that war in 1973 in a pretty strong military position. What does this tell you? That Israel's military is able to absorb losses. It is able to adapt to losses. These losses then become "tactical", not really strategic in any sense. Especially when you have a supplier like the US (which saved Israel in 1973).
The main strength of Israel is its Airforce, and even after all these rocket and missile attacks, the Israeli Airforce remained in the battle without showing any signs of slowing down.
Hezbollah's inability to inflict strategic damage on the Israeli Airforce (such as hitting them in their bases) is a military failure, given that denying Israel its Airforce capabilities would probably have been the number one priority for Hezbollah, as that would literally "disable" Israel. Or perhaps they never had the ability to do so, and accepted that.
On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:All of this does not get rid of Israel's losses millitarly, you can't just pretend like Israel is some magical country that can just recover the thousands of millitary casualties it just had in an instant and get some package from America which will magically fix most things. You're trying very hard to make it a failure for hezbollah that you're failing to see objectively that these losses on Israel's side are not something you can just gloss over.
Israel had plentiful losses but its ability to recover would be much easier for it than Hezbollah, given Western support and the fact that it is a state which is a regional power.
Like I said, we have proof of that from previous Israeli wars which resulted in high losses. Israel's ability to recover has been witnessed and tested.
Hezbollah on the other hand is a party in a divided country which is supported by one State only and is reliant on a single powerbase, while also being part of an alliance with other parties (some of which weren't even supportive of the war).
On top of that, it has lost its main supply route which would have assisted in the recovery effort. Do you see how the scale is much different?
On 12/16/2024 at 10:50 AM, mahmood8726 said:Hezbollahs weaponry is mostly stored underground and they produce their stuff domestically importing only the sophisticated stuff from Iran through Syria. Most of the things Israel hit were civilian areas or extra weaponry that was stored above ground. Don't fall for Israel's PR where they tell you they destroyed 80% of hezbs missiles, this is stuff they said for decades and were proven multiple times to be wrong.
I don't believe in Israel's 80% assertion, but the truth is that being "underground", while it does help, does not make it "destruction-proof", given we saw how effective American-made bunker busters were in the assassination of both Sayyed Nasrallah and Sayyed Hashem, where the holes literally reached some 60 feet or more in depth.
What do I believe? Some ammo that is stored underground was also hit, just as the Hezbollah leaders were hit. How much of Hezbollah's arsenal was destroyed or used in the war? I don't know.
But either way, it will be hard to restock all those rockets given the debacle in Syria. And even if Hezbollah did restore it, the main issue of the Party was the intel penetration in the first place. Israel did not have nowhere near this level of penetration in 2006.
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3 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:
I never claimed that.
Hezbollah did it to pressure Israel into a ceasefire with Gaza(the war isn't over so we can't make conclusions yet) and to prevent Israel from invading Lebanon, Israel planned to do an imminent invasion of Lebanon around the time hamas launched its attack, even before Oct 7, it's why when hamas launched its attack preemptivley, hezbollah followed suit on oct 8.
The war is over brother. It is finished. Shaykh Naeem has pretty much said so himself.
Israeli cabinet differed amongst themselves on whether to go to war against Hezbollah on October 7 or not. Gallant and some IOF Generals were among those who were supportive of that idea, but Netanyahu made the decision not to go to war due to US pressure. The US also showed its backing to Israel by increasing its presence in the Middle East and instantly sending billions of dollars worth of arms and intelligence support.
4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:That means hezb and Iran will have to rely on contingencies, they did mention alternative routes, it will take back the resistance decades.
So that's a set back. The definition of failure.
4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:They have come out stronger geopolitically, but they have weakened millitarly and economically and politically(PR), this is not my opinion, but even the opinion of israeli experts themselves, israeli economists, and Israeli generals.
How have they been weakened militarily? They don't even have to worry about Syria anymore. Their position is stronger than it ever has been.
Because they lost soldiers and equipment? Because some of their bases got hit?
My brother, the axis lost a whole country with its entire Army and every single strategic piece of equipment that came with it. They lost their most important logistical route.
Compare the losses of both sides and tell me who is in a better position now. That's how you know who is in a better position militarily.
4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:Israel wanted to impose it's own conditions and alter UN res 1701, Israel was forced to compromise and accept the status quoe before 2023 because hezbollah was hurting it a lot. Israel is now pretending that it forced hezbollah to sign an altered version of UN res 1701 which allows it to be on lebanese airspace and strike hezb, but that has been denied by the lebanese government, UN, hezbollah, French government and even the US government I beleive, israel is only pretending it signed this mythical altered version of UN res 1701 to look strong to its population whilst they violate the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon.
So you are satisfied that Hezbollah gave away all of those martyrs to simply return to the status quo? Was that the point of the war?
4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:That's false, not even Israelis agree with you or pretend like it's not effecting them, that internal displacement in Israel was bad for its economy and stability, really bad, especially when you consider the fact Israel is a state of settlers and not natives.
To bad that's not what happened in reality, Israel was not prepared for a war of attrition, it badly effected their economy and stability, your statement is just false, you're assuming Israel prepared for a year long conflict when they didn't.
I find it strange how brothers like to mention the economic and infrastructure damage Israel suffered, as if Lebanon did not suffer multiple times the damage.
Why do you view it as a success for Hezbollah to destroy Israeli infrastructure, displace settlers and cause economic damages, but not a success for Israel when it destroys Lebanese infrastructure, displaces Lebanese citzens and caused economic damage to Lebanon?
Let us compare the damage.
This article illustrates the Israeli Government's estimation of the damage:
https://www.jns.org/northern-israels-war-toll-5b-shekels-in-damage-and-counting/
Based on their figures, it seems to be $450 million in direct damages and over $1 billion in indirect damages. Let us assume they are lowballing the figure and it is actually $2 billion in damages overall.
How does that compare to what Lebanon suffered?
Well, the figures are dire.
And this is a country with one of the worst performing economies in the entire world, that was swimming in debt and deadlocked in a political crisis even before the war.
What about economic growth? Israel is projected by the World Bank to return to positive GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, while Lebanon will probably still be contracting.
So Israel will rebuild quicker with less expenses, and less suffering for its economy and its people.
Why is that not factored in your analysis? Does Lebanon's losses not count for some reason?
4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:Israel just wasted decades worth of human resources, intelligence, satellite data, because now the entire command line of hezbollah was destroyed and its been replaced by unknown people. Problem is for Israel, they don't have another decade to spare.
Why was it wasted? Do you personally know that Hezbollah has cleaned its entire organisation from the intel penetration? Or is that just an assumption?
And why don't they have another decade to spare? What will happen in a decade that will cause them despair?
4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:Hezbollah spread out the Israeli army for a year and a few months which changed the outcome of the war in Gaza drastically. As I said the war isn't over yet, so nothing can be concluded yet, but it defenetly changed a lot of things.
Brother, the war is over. The reason you don't want to believe the war is over is because it means that all the talk about not delinking from Gaza until a ceasefire is reached no matter the cost would be pretty much in vain.
What changed for Gazans?
4 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:Hezbollah made Israel bleed a lot of money and American aid is not the fix you think it is.
When Israel entered Lebanon, they exposed themselves a lot, a lot of people were alienated by Gaza because it was fully beseiged, Lebanon however was only half beseiged by israel and not fully beseiged like in 2006, which made it easier to document israeli warcrimes and expose them in Lebanon.
Hezbollah showed israels iron dome weakness and studied all of it for a future conflict, now they have a huge amount of intel on Israel's defences to work on.
Hezbollah made Israel realise that they could not invade Lebanon and occupy it and they would be stupid to try that adventure again.
Hezbollah now has a good idea of who will be the agitators and collaborators within lebanese society.
Hezbollah now will learn to better hide it's leaders and commanders. Hezbollah will now check its electronics for explosives.
Hezbollah now knows how Israel launches invasions into Lebanon, instead of relying on 2006 data.
And much more.
Unfortunately, American aid is a big fix whether we like it or not. The aid that the US gave Israel is nothing but a speck in the US economy.
Israel's warcrimes are known to the world. I don't see how that changes anything?
Israel never claimed Iron Dome is a magic system and said that it could be saturated, but Israel would be worse off without an Iron Dome for sure. It is the only system of its class (anti-rocket and anti-artillery) in the world that has been repeatedly been used in battle.
Why can't you also look at it the other way, which is that Israel may have also learnt from this conflict, and can now upgrade the Iron Dome or make a manufacture an even better system based on their battle experience? In warfare, both sides learn and adapt to eachother.
I personally think both sides would have learnt from eachother. I don't see it as a one side thing at all.
Hezbollah did show that Israel cannot occupy Lebanon without significant or unbearable losses. That is true.
I think you just focus on what Hezbollah learnt, and discount anything Israel has learnt.
This is the same issue of all Arabs, they always underestimate their enemy. In 2006, it was actually the Israelis who underestimated Hezbollah, which is why they were defeated. This time, they did not underestimate Hezbollah, they didn't venture deep into Lebanon. They learned from their mistakes, clearly.
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21 hours ago, mahmood8726 said:
If the ceasefire ends up being permanent, then that means it's neither a victory or failure, it's a bitter stalemate because the Northern settlers are scared and Israel hasn't conquered Lebanon and hezbollah had to seperate Gaza because of what they anticipated would happen in Syria.
Hezbollah did not enter this war to displace some settlers for the sake of displacement, they entered to pressure Israel into a permanent ceasefire with Gaza.
If what you say about Syria is true, that Hezbollah knew that Assad was basically finished, then Israel was not only able to take Hezbollah out of the fight with a ceasefire and solely focus on Gaza, but also ended up destroying the multi-decades built capabilities of the Syrian Army (& Iran in Syria), all the while capturing Syrian territory with impunity, and with basically no restraint on its behaviour and no strategic damage to the IOF's capabilities.
Whether by Israeli design or whether the circumstances favoured Israel, the Israelis have come out of this post-October 7 period much stronger than before it. I believe you can admit that. They are in a much better position both geopolitically and militarily.
In actuality, all Hezbollah did was displace Northern settlers for the sake of displacing them, and returned back to the 1701 UNSC Resolution of 2006, while losing their first in line command structure.
Whether the Northern settlers return to their homes or go live somewhere else in Israel, it does nothing to the overall stability of the Israeli State, not now, nor in the future. Most of the richer Israelis in Tel Aviv and Haifa couldn't care less about them anyway.
Israel knew that settlers would be displaced in any war with Hezbollah which is why they had evacuation plans in the first place.
So what was achieved by Hezbollah? Survival... that's it? Is this what you personally expected to be achieved in October 8 2023 when Hezbollah entered the war?
I will make another prediction: When the war ends in Gaza, Hamas will not be the sole ruler of Gaza. The Arab League will also have more sway on Gaza than it ever has.
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1 hour ago, Abu_Zahra said:
You are correct and this has exactly been the line of the Islamic resistance in various lands and cities, be it South Lebanon, Iran, Iraq or Yemen.
The counterargument has no credible representatives. It comes from circles that were invisible when Zainabiyya was being protected and when Daesh were being defeated.
Atleast when it comes to Iraq, there are "credible representatives" that are from those "circles" (including in the PMF) who fought Daesh to liberate Iraq.
There are those who have simple national aspirations within the borders of Iraq - and total subservience to the Iraqi State with no foreign loyalties or alliances driving their actions.
They continue to operate in their sole anti-Daesh mission aswell as protecting Public and Religious sites. That's it.
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On 12/10/2024 at 5:25 PM, Eddie Mecca said:
Iran decided to interact with the Taliban and then this happened:
1.) No more America along Iran's eastern border
2.) No more American puppet regime next door
3.) Taliban offered condolences and publicly condemned the assassination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani
4.) Iran building schools and sponsoring media outlets in Kabul
5.) Taliban aligning with Iranian policy vis-à-vis Israeli genocide of Palestinians. In July 2024, "foreign ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Taliban discussed taking “joint action” against Israel. The Taliban and Iran have cooperated in the past to oust the US from Afghanistan and overthrow the Afghan government. Iranian Special Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Affairs Hassan Kazemi Qomi stated that “if need be, a martyrdom division from Afghanistan is prepared to fight in Gaza,” adding that “the way we see it, Afghanistan is also part of the Axis of Resistance.”
@Ibn Tayyar, the 5 points I listed help the Hazara community in Afghanistan...from Saudi-sponsorship to Iranian-sponsored madressas...from Pakistan ISI flavored media apparatus to an Iranian-based one
Taliban make flowery statements when it comes to the treatment of the Shi'a.
Unfortunately, reality on the ground is much different.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/203618/Afghan-Shias-urge-Taliban-to-cancel-Muharram-restrictions
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12 minutes ago, AbdusSibtayn said:
Did I overdo it?????
These posts are satire @Abu Nur @Diaz @Ibn Tayyar
I understand your sarcasm brother. May Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَ تَعَالَى) bless you.
I will however say that with the Hamas solidarity statement to their Syrian rebel brothers, and the Saddam (la) pictures being paraded and circled around, it did remind me of this particular video.
This was in 2003. I wonder who could have predicted a group of Saddamists would betray the Shi'a at their time of need - just a decade later?
Ali b. Husayn (عليه السلام) said: You must not associate with a fasiq; he may sell you for a single loaf or even less to this or that person. (al-Kafi)
Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَ تَعَالَى) has exposed their treachery, but unfortunately some brothers will never be convinced of their nature.
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7 minutes ago, AbdusSibtayn said:
"#BREAKING Hamas “congratulates Syrian people for achieving aspirations for freedom and justice” - statement — Reuters"
https://t.me/warmonitors/31702
No comments.
Who's articulating the actual axis position here?
Subhanallah, who could have expected?
You will find some brothers will be harsher towards their fellow Shi'a who disagree with them politically, while they will show quite a bit of leniency towards repeat backstabbers.
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8 hours ago, Eddie Mecca said:So you're criticizing the Resistance Nexus for rescuing Yazidis, Chaldeans etc. from Takfiri clutches in Iraq? They should've let them die because those communities are non-Shi'i? The supremacist mentality being displayed here mirrors that of the Yahud and the Wahhabis
I don't believe I said that even once brother. I have stated that even those Shi'a that fought in Bosnia did something honourable and should be praised. Those who died are martyrs.
All I'm saying is two points.
1) We can only do so much and we only have so much resources. Our resources should favour Shi'a over non-Shi'a, but there is honour and great thawab in helping the non-Shi'a, as long as it doesn't deviate from the priority of attending to Shi'i causes.
2) We shouldn't support those who openly oppose us, whether it be those that oppressed us, betrayed us, or even worse, killed us.
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@Jaabir Brother I believe you are mistaken on the Shi'i belief/narrations regarding "Bayt Al-Maqdis".
Most of the narrations you are referring to speak of "Al-Aqsa" being in the Heavens, not "Bayt Al-Maqdis", even thought you might find a narration or two that says otherwise.
"Bayt Al-Maqdis" (the one in Jerusalem) is a Holy site and Mosque in our narrations, regardless of whether it is "Al-Aqsa" or not, or in Heaven or not.
This is but one narration on the thawab of Salaat there.
Ali (عليه السلام) said: “A single Salaat of Baitul Muqaddas is equal to one thousand prayers. A single prayer of Masjid-e-Azam is equal to one hundred prayers. A single prayer of Masjid-e-Qabeelah is equal to twenty-five prayers and a single prayer of Masjid-e-Sooq is equal to twelve prayers. A Salaat offered in one’s house is equal to a single prayer only.”
https://thaqalayn.net/hadith/23/2/73/1
There is no reason to belittle the Quds brother.
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23 hours ago, realizm said:
And how do you explain all Sunni countries betrayal of Palestinian when it came to Palestine ? Portraying the "Muslim" world as two Sunni and Shi`i entities is as monolithic of a thought as saying all Americans are united.
It is the exact same analogy my brother, but in reverse.
When Sunnis betray Sunnis, it is because they choose dunya over deen, and that is what could be said of the Arab regimes. When Shi'a betray Shi'a, it is because they chose dunya over deen.
When Sunnis betray Shi'a for Sunni causes, it is because of inter-madhab solidarity with other Sunnis. Such is the case with Hamas and Syria.
And likewise, when Shi'a "betray" Sunnis for Shi'a causes, it is because of inter-madhab solidarity with other Shi'a. Such is the case with the Shi'a who "betrayed" Saddam (la) for Iran. They did a great thing, by the way. May Allah (سُبْحَانَهُ وَ تَعَالَى) reward them for "betraying" that creature.
Let me ask you this: Why did Hamas betray Syria? What was the "main" cause? Was it not Hamas's Sunnism?
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51 minutes ago, realizm said:
Translating roughly, you would IRI become the SRI Shia Republic of Iran.
Fair enough. I respect this point of view.
wa alaykum al salam
There's no shame in that. It is a Shi'i country where the Leader & President have to be Shi'i (according to the Constitution), where the country is Shi'i majority, where it is ruled in accordance with Shi'i Law. When does it stop being Shi'i? Foreign policy?
51 minutes ago, realizm said:Maybe part of their diplomatic efforts. You would not blame them for talking with KSA, would you ? They are nawasib as well.
You just cannot blame Iran for every diplomatic ouverture. Maybe talks with hardline salafists were a step taken to anticipate the critical events from last week in Syria.
Unfortunately Iran did more than just "talk" to the Taliban. It actually supported them in certain ways.
51 minutes ago, realizm said:Brother, Shi`is proved to be as treacherous as Sunnis. I might agree that oppressed Shi`is may turn to be more loyal, but please let's not be blinded and act like Ahl Kufa is just a 1400 year old Iraqi thing. Plus, you might agree on the fact that the recent AOR was nothing more than a Shi`i crescent.
When Shi'a betray eachother, it is because the dunya has come between them. When the Sunnis betray the Shi'a, it is because of their madhab. Otherwise, how do you explain Hamas' betrayal when it came to Syria? Was it not inter-madhabi solidarity with the Syrian Revolution?
Like you said, the Axis was mostly a Shi'i thing. And there is a reason for that. Let us stop deluding ourselves into not thinking a big chunk of Sunnis absolutely despise us and want nothing to do with us.
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6 hours ago, Eddie Mecca said:
@Ibn Tayyar, you're suggesting that Tehran is promoting anti-Shi'i sentiment in Afghanistan by promoting the Taliban against the imperialists...Tehran adopted a completely anti-Taliban posture throughout the 90's...the old or original Taliban...then the new Taliban emerged in 2021 and claimed new aims and noble objectives and a revitalized outlook...alright...Tehran's approach was an extremely cautious one...Tehran didn't start singing "We Are The World" with the Deobandis as you suggested...Tehran congratulated them on their victory...a victory against a common foe/enemy (Tehran had long demanded withdrawal of imperialist forces from the region)...Taliban reintroduced Islamic law...Taliban authorities banned and outlawed poppy seed cultivation as their predecessors had done...okay...two positive steps in the right direction...Tehran's motives are largely driven by regional geopolitics ...Central Asian, South Asian and Western Asian international affairs...Tehran is in-between three worlds...Iran overlaps all three regions simultaneously...it's at the crossroads of all three...also, Tehran's inspiration was steered (to a large extent) by border and security-driven agendas and concerns...if Tehran can begin influencing Taliban behavior in a certain direction...then allies China and Moscow will be elated and extacic and everyone benefits...BRICS nations will benefit...New Silk Road Initiative benefits...also, Tehran can capitalize on ISIS versus Taliban tensions...after the Taliban takeover...Taliban began a purging movement of ISIS operatives and opponents...Salafi mosques and Saudi-sponsored madressas and seminaries were all shut down...mountainous people are generally rougher and more self-reliant and less trusting of outsiders...they're rougher around the edges compared to their cosmopolitan counterparts...it's similar in the hilly terrain of the Appalachian Mountains region and elsewhere...even in the rural regions and mountainous areas of southern Lebanon...the people there are tougher...not all manifestations of Afghan backwardness can be blamed on Sunnism...Spartan rural existence toughens people and effects their perspectives on life and reality and existence...a softening is sometimes needed...many times this can be cured through proper education and social refinement...also, an injection of money can sometimes help
Thank you for your insight brother, I believe I understand where you are coming from, but I have my own objections.
While you are focusing on the geopolitical results of Taliban rule - which may favour Iran - I am speaking more about the suffering the average Shi'i is going through in Afghanistan when it comes to Taliban oppression.
You don't even need to look further than what Iranian media is itself reporting on the plight of the Shi'a there.
I understand your sentiment in that you want to look at the "bigger picture", but I cannot ignore the suffering of my brothers & sisters.
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1 hour ago, Irfani313 said:
Asad was for sure not worth fighting for.
Happenings around the shrine of Sayeda Zainab Bint Ameer ul Momeneen (عليه السلام) would tell if a grand bargain was formulated between Turkey, Iran, and Iraq.
He was an oppressor of his people. He was obviously disliked. He ruled with a Cult of Personality.
Such regimes mostly fail unless assisted by a powerful security apparatus. His problem is that it turns out even his security forces were corrupt and easy to bribe. Many of them were opportunists.
It is simply a shame that he has been replaced by something which looks to be an even bigger monster, with a vengeance for us Shi'a.
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Iraq had better be prepared for anything. That border needs to be completely sealed right now. Every metre manned by a soldier.
I'm not sure there is anyone that could be cooperated with to ensure border security from Iraq's point of view. I also wonder what the future holds for the SDF. Will the Kurds and the rebels come to any sort of agreement? Or will this simply mean a new civil war between them?
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1 hour ago, Eddie Mecca said:
1.) All the Islamic discourse etiquette you display...all the niceties and pleasantries doesn't compensate for your Uncle Tom mentality
2.) Islamic Republic's foreign policy is based on primarily two elements...namely: a.) Islamic idealism and b.) national pragmatism like any other country...Tehran adheres to Twelver Shi'ism as the state religion...Twelver Shi'ism is innately a nonsectarian creed...this cannot be changed by Washington or Tel Aviv or the Shirazis or anyone else...Tehran's vision is a pan-Islamic vision...your buddies in Washington, London and Tel Aviv/Jerusalem want Iran to pursue a Shi'i-centric policy in the region so it can be marginalized and considered a potential fifth column entity and despised from its very inception...sorry to burst your bubble...nice try...it ain't happening...Tehran bolstering the Taliban during the 2010's was a genius move...they used little shaytan to remove Sheytân-e Bozorg (i.e. Great Satan)...I realize this is worrisome for you...you don't want Washington ejected out of Central Asia...Kabul and Tehran's interests aligned in removing the Americans from the region...it's called Realpolitik
I realise it is realpolitik, but this realpolitik has bolstered a group that has killed and is currently oppressing the Shi'a.
I believe Islam asks of us to have a moralist policy on the world, surely if the blood of the innocent believers is on the line.
Perhaps you and I can agree to disagree.
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4 hours ago, Eddie Mecca said:
I can read...in 10th grade I was reading at second year university levels and received an award...I consider myself a capable reader...that's not what you said originally when you posted in the 'Syrian Civil War Reignited' thread...you said Tehran should follow an exculsivist policy...which means following the script and obeying Washington's sectarian narrative
I don't believe so brother. I made note many times that those who sacrificed themselves in conflicts such as Bosnia and Gaza are to be honoured. I don't believe they made any sort of mistake in doing what they did.
I don't believe I said exclusivist, but more Shi'a-centered.
Has the Axis of resistance failed
in Politics/Current Events
Posted · Edited by Ibn Tayyar
@mahmood8726 Netanyahu's threats against the ceasefire are clearly a pressure move. He wants more concessions and is telling Hamas "we have full American backing, who will stop us?".
This is why you have seen the publicised announcements of a massive amount of arms heading Israel's way from the US. Whatever checks existed before, they don't now.
On the other hand, have a read through this;
https://www.newarab.com/news/egypts-plan-counter-trumps-gaza-riviera-sideline-hamas
Apparently this will be the Egyptian plan submitted to the Arab League tomorrow. It mentions some sort of multi Arab and non Arab governance of Gaza that may lay the groundworks for reconstruction and perhaps even take control of security. If there is an Arab consensus on this proposal - as in all the Arab States vote for it - this will also be another pressure move against Hamas.
One thing is for sure to me, Hamas will exist in a different way than before if this ceasefire holds across all stages.
Also I never said that Israel would win through brute force alone.
Whether Israel ultimately wins depends on what the status of Hamas is following this ceasefire deal. If Hamas is sidelined completely (including in security of Gaza), then even you will say that this war has been a failure.