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In the Name of God بسم الله


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  1. This is a catastrophic situation that Iran finds itself in. I have been doing much research on fertility in the Middle East (as demography and development is my master degree). Iran in the late 1980s had over triple the population of Iraq, now it has only double. This is a very quick decline if compared with Iraq. The same thing can be said about Saudi Arabia which its relative size to Iran has grow considerably in the past two decades. On the other hand, Egypt ,which has historically had similar population to Iran, today outnumbers Iran by 10 million and the gap is growing fast. The problem with having a low fertility is not a declining population, the problem is an ageing population. The population of Iran median age was 20 years old in 2000, now its age is 27 years old and is projected to reach 40 years old in 2030 making Iran a very old society, much like Japan. An ageing society is unable to grow fast as the workforce continually declines. A rich country, such as Japan and France, are likely to be able to bare the costs of an aging society without great damage as they are already rich. However, a developing country that is far from being rich, such as Iran, cannot take such costs. The problem in Iran is probably too late to fix. The fertility rate is 1.6, and continues to decline. In 10 years or the ageing population (women) will not be able to bare children, and Iran's ability to reverse this will further deteriorate. No country has been able to reverse a fertility drop to 1.6 and make it above 2. Countries such as Russia have made little progress, increasing their fertility from 1.2 to 1.5 and reducing the decline of the rapid Russian population. However, much of the increase of births in Russia have been coming from Muslim families which is changing the mix of the Russian society and increasing the percentage of Muslims there. , Changing culture is also a problem in Iran, as Arabs (mostly Shia), Kurds (mostly Sunni), and Baloch (Sunni) have a much higher fertility rate than that of Azeri or Persians. This over the next 40 years could have serious repercussions on the cultural landscape of Iran. The government in Iran has been aware of the problem for a while, but it is extremely difficult to reverse the process as the countries of Europe and Asia know too well. The real question is how can a Muslim country have a much lower rate than most Western European countries? Such as France and the UK? That is puzzling
  2. The protestors were peaceful for over 6months and it started as a normal Arab Spring revolution. But Assad decided to start shooting. Even Nasrallah said that in the beginning there was a true revolution before it was "hijacked" but the extremist, which is apparently why the Hizb is killing Syrians at the moment.
  3. I am not "yammering" about something I don't know. Iran economically was much better back then than it is today. The country had an open system of trade, the population was rapidly modernising (health-care, education, etc...) and the industrial base was constructed. The lack of urbanisation you mentioned is typical and is normal for a developing country in the 1970s. No economist or a development specialist would tell you that Iran economy before the revolution was worst than the economy after the revolution. As the devastating war with Iraq has heavily damaged Iran's infrastructure and have led to a reversal of growth. The infrastructure today is still not recovered from that time. The only way Iran was able prevent economic collapse after the revolution was to reduce the very high fertility rate of 5-7 children per women! However, the reduction of fertility rate was too quick, and it stands today at 1.6, much lower than European countries with low fertility, such as France or even the US. Such low fertility indicates that there is something deeply wrong in society and in a few decades will lead to a declining population and will make the country have a really old population and significantly weaken it. If the Iranian government does not substantial raise its fertility rate in the next 5 years it will be too late. But again, raising it from such a low level is next to impossible.
  4. Obviously Israel would prefer Assad. The Syrian-Israeli borders have been quiet and safe for over 40 years! Not a single bullet fired by the regime in Syria even when they are bomb by Israel. So much for their "resistance" They are only good at killing their own people.
  5. Iran was not a starving country in the 1970s. The much lower number of people in Iran in the 1970s and the oil boom has ensured a decent standard for Iranians. The cause of the revolution was not about the economic situation. The poor, especially in cities, suffer more under sanctions today than they did in the 1970s.
  6. Teaching Quran or Arabic as a second language is not the point. The point is teaching Arabs in their own languages! All classes. Not impose Persian on them and prevent them from getting their full education in Arabic or Kurdish for Kurds etc. You picture Iran as a country where everyone has equal rights! Can you please show me one university that teaches secular majors in languages other than Persian? Don't tell me you could study Quran in Arabic or religious studies. I am talking about secular topics that Arabs, Kurds and others can study in their own languages. This is not possible and the establishment of such institutions is not allowed. These Arabs are not Sunnis, they are Shias and they have demanded their rights countless times. The answer is that they are hanged and called terrorists and accused of "committing war against God". It is ridiculous, you can keep defending Iran, that won't really change the ugly truth. Everything Iran does is the right thing yeah? Even if it makes peace with the "great satan" and give up a big portion of its enrichment part as an initial price for that peace. Anyhow, end of discussion. Arabs and other groups in Iran will get their rights sooner or later, the low fertility rate of Persians and the high fertility rate of Baluch and Arabs will have positive consequence on the situation in Iran.
  7. I see, do Kurds learn in their language too? Arabs and Iranians learn Arabic as a second language with very few class. Arabs in Iran demand to learn all courses in their own language, the language of Quran. But the state refuses such a thing. Kurds in Iran are also not taught their language in schools. Persians is forced upon them. This is an example of Iran closing down a private institution of learning Kurdish just weeks after it was opened! http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/16092013 Iran is a country where non-Persian Arabs, Kurds and Baluch are heavily discriminated against in all aspect of society.
  8. http://www.yalibnan.com/2013/12/09/hezbollah-shirks-al-manars-apology-to-bahrain/ Apparently the channel has made statements without consulting Hizb leadership. Very professional.
  9. India, Canada, US..etc all those countries that allow people to learn the language they want lack solidarity? Iranian Arabs HATE Persian oppression and many of them get executed for fighting against the Persian regime in Ahwaz! Those Arabs are Shias, not Sunni.
  10. http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/hezbollah-media-sorry-for-bahrain-coverage-1.1264758 http://www.alraimedia.com/alrai/Article.aspx?id=483298&date=08122013 Al Manar TV apologises for its lack of objectivity in the coverage of the events in Bahrain. It has promises that in the future it will be more objective and improve its standards! What is going on? Why would Hizb channel admit to this?
  11. She's from a majority Sunni area. Shura councils of Bahrain and Saudi do have Shia members. Iran doesn't only heavily discriminates against Sunnis, it also discriminates against Shia Arabs and denies them the right to be taught in their mother tongue!
  12. Iran did give too much. The most important part of the deal was the ability to enrich uranium, which Iran has lost hundreds of billions of losses due to sanctions in order to obtain the ability to enrich uranium at its current levels. It was shocking to see Iran give up enriching uranium at above 5% this quickly. What they got in return was nothing compared to what was lost in 2013 alone. The 9 billion dollar is Iran's money, it is not a "reward". Iranian officials have also invited American/Western oil companies to invest in Iran with attractive returns and opportunities. Why suffer under sanctions for so long to make peace for so little? This is odd. It is an interim deal though, the most important deal is in 6 months, then things will be much clearer. Iranians youth seem to be very happy with the deal. But many in Iran do feel betrayal and that Iran given too much for only 9 billion dollars!
  13. No one is talking about infants or suicide bombers. No need to stray off topic. But if this is justifiable and even a good thing to beat up a man like that. Then I have no idea why people complain when a few Shias are beating up for insulting the Sahabah.
  14. Having a problem understanding what I said? In other threads people are very critical when a Shia get beaten up for insulting the Sahabah in a overwhelmingly Sunni countries. But now taking down posters is more than enough reason to gang up on him and beat him up? In fact it is a good thing!
  15. Gang beating someone for tearing down posters is okay. In fact it is good even when he's a foreign to the culture/religion. But when a crowd beat up someone who insults sacred figures of Sunnis in overwhelmingly Sunni countries they are animals and so unlike the Shias? Makes sense.
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