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The fall of the Berlin Wall - not so much of a victory for the West

Haji 2003

Entry posted by Haji 2003 in Politics

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[The Berlin Wall today is home to various artistic pieces. I took this image of the last East German leader, Erich Honecker, portrayed as a Roman emperor.]

 

The reply I received from chatgpt. The original query is in the next post and after that the original framing query.

 

The proposition that the fall of the Berlin Wall was seen as a massive victory over communism, but has since led to the rise of China as a more formidable challenge, is an interesting perspective that warrants a nuanced response. Here's a detailed response addressing the different facets of this argument:

Initial Victory Perception

1. **Symbol of Freedom and Democracy:** The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was indeed perceived as a monumental victory for Western liberal democracies over communist authoritarianism. It symbolized the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the triumph of democratic values over communist ideologies.
2. **End of Bipolar World Order:** The dissolution of the USSR and the subsequent end of the Cold War were seen as the beginning of a new era of unipolarity, with the United States and its allies at the helm of a new world order centered around democracy and free-market capitalism.

Rise of China

1. **Economic Reforms:** While the fall of the Berlin Wall marked the decline of Soviet-style communism, China embarked on economic reforms under Deng Xiaoping from the late 1970s onwards. These reforms gradually opened China to global markets, allowing it to harness the benefits of economic liberalization without abandoning its one-party rule.
2. **Economic Growth:** China's rapid economic growth transformed it into the world's second-largest economy. This growth has been driven by a combination of state control and market-oriented reforms, creating a hybrid model distinct from both Western capitalism and Soviet communism.
3. **Global Influence:** China's rise has led to significant diplomatic, economic, and military influence on the global stage. This includes initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, expanding military capabilities, and increasing assertiveness in regional and international affairs.

Diplomatic, Economic, and Military Challenges

1. **Economic Dependence and Rivalry:** The integration of China into the global economy has created both interdependence and rivalry. Western economies benefit from trade with China but also face challenges related to trade imbalances, intellectual property issues, and economic coercion.
2. **Military Expansion:** China's military modernization and territorial ambitions, particularly in the South China Sea, pose significant strategic challenges to the West and its allies in the region.
3. **Diplomatic Tensions:** China's assertive foreign policy, including its stance on Taiwan, human rights issues, and its influence in international organizations, often conflicts with Western values and interests.

Long-Term Perspective

1. **Complex Legacy:** The fall of the Berlin Wall did lead to the spread of democracy in Eastern Europe and a temporary unipolar moment for the West. However, the unintended consequence of China's rise highlights the complexity of global geopolitical shifts and the difficulty of predicting long-term outcomes.
2. **Evolving Challenges:** The challenges posed by China are different from those of the USSR. The Soviet threat was primarily ideological and military, while China's challenge is multifaceted, combining economic competition, military modernization, and diplomatic influence.
3. **Adaptation and Strategy:** Western leaders need to adapt to this new reality by developing comprehensive strategies that address the economic, military, and diplomatic dimensions of China's rise. This includes reinforcing alliances, investing in technological innovation, and promoting a rules-based international order.

Conclusion

The fall of the Berlin Wall was a pivotal moment in world history, symbolizing the end of the Cold War and the triumph of democratic values. However, the subsequent rise of China as a global power reflects the dynamic and unpredictable nature of international relations. It underscores the importance of continuous strategic adaptation and the need for nuanced policies that address emerging global challenges.

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Haji 2003
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The prompt:

What would your response be to the proposition that the fall of the Berlin Wall in the early 1990s was seen by western leaders as a massive victory over communism at the time. In the decades since, we have seen the rise of China as a result of post communist economic liberalisation and it now poses far more of a diplomatic, economic and military challenge than the USSR ever did.

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Haji 2003
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Original prompt in the conversation:

What are some examples of events that were seen as diplomatic victories at the time, but which with hindsight turned out to be a disaster for the "victors'?

And its reply:

Several historical events were initially hailed as diplomatic victories but later turned out to be disasters for the supposed victors. Here are some notable examples:

1. Munich Agreement (1938)
- **Initial Perception:** The Munich Agreement, signed by Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy, was seen as a diplomatic victory for British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Premier Édouard Daladier. They believed it had averted war by conceding the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia to Adolf Hitler.
- **Hindsight:** The agreement is widely regarded as a policy of appeasement that emboldened Hitler, leading to the further aggression of Nazi Germany and eventually World War II.

2. Treaty of Versailles (1919)
- **Initial Perception:** The Treaty of Versailles was viewed as a triumph for the Allied Powers, particularly France and Britain, as it imposed harsh reparations and territorial losses on Germany after World War I.
- **Hindsight:** The treaty's punitive measures are often cited as a factor contributing to the economic hardship and political instability in Germany, which facilitated the rise of Adolf Hitler and the outbreak of World War II.

3. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (1939)
- **Initial Perception:** This non-aggression pact between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union was seen as a strategic victory for both sides. It allowed Germany to invade Poland without fear of Soviet intervention and granted the Soviet Union territory in Eastern Europe.
- **Hindsight:** The pact eventually collapsed when Germany invaded the Soviet Union in 1941, leading to a brutal conflict on the Eastern Front. The initial cooperation and division of territories are seen as short-sighted given the subsequent devastation.

4. The Yalta Conference (1945)
- **Initial Perception:** The Yalta Conference, attended by Franklin D. Roosevelt, Winston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin, was initially seen as a successful negotiation that established the post-World War II order and spheres of influence.
- **Hindsight:** It led to the division of Europe and set the stage for the Cold War. The concessions made to the Soviet Union, particularly regarding Eastern Europe, resulted in decades of communist control and tension between East and West.

5. Oslo Accords (1993)
- **Initial Perception:** The Oslo Accords were seen as a major diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), aiming to achieve a peace process and establish Palestinian self-governance.
- **Hindsight:** The accords failed to bring lasting peace and stability to the region. Subsequent violence, political instability, and the failure to resolve key issues have led to ongoing conflict and skepticism about the peace process.

6. The Iran Nuclear Deal (2015)
- **Initial Perception:** The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, was seen as a significant diplomatic achievement by the Obama administration, aiming to curb Iran's nuclear program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions.
- **Hindsight:** The deal faced significant criticism and eventual withdrawal by the Trump administration in 2018. Its long-term effectiveness remains debated, with concerns about Iran's compliance and regional implications persisting.

These examples illustrate how complex and unpredictable the outcomes of diplomatic agreements can be, often leading to unintended consequences and reevaluation with the passage of time.

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      By Haji 2003 in Contemporania
         2 comments
      What follows below, starting with "Historical Context" is chatgpt's analysis.
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      The contention that Palestinian actions would not have altered the current situation, given Israeli military superiority and claims over Jerusalem, is complex and multifaceted. It involves historical, political, and social dimensions that have shaped the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the past century. Here are some key points to consider:
       
       Historical Context
      1. Balfour Declaration and Mandate Period:
         - The Balfour Declaration of 1917 and the subsequent British Mandate for Palestine established a framework that favored the establishment of a "national home for the Jewish people" in Palestine. This set the stage for future conflicts over land and national identity.
      2. 1947 UN Partition Plan:
         - The United Nations proposed a partition plan in 1947 to create separate Jewish and Arab states, with Jerusalem as an international city. Jewish leaders accepted the plan, but Arab leaders rejected it, leading to the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
      3. 1948 and 1967 Wars:
         - The 1948 War led to the establishment of the State of Israel and the displacement of many Palestinians (Nakba). The 1967 Six-Day War resulted in Israel's occupation of East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza Strip, solidifying Israeli control over these areas.
       
       Israeli Claims and Military Superiority
      1. Jerusalem as Israel's Capital:
         - Israeli leaders have consistently claimed Jerusalem as the undivided, eternal capital of Israel. This claim has been reinforced by various Israeli governments and supported by significant segments of Israeli society.
      2. Military Superiority:
         - Israel's military strength has been a decisive factor in the conflict. Its advanced military capabilities, supported by substantial foreign aid, particularly from the United States, have ensured its dominance in the region.
       
       Palestinian Responses and Strategies
      1. Armed Resistance vs. Diplomacy:
         - Palestinians have employed various strategies, including armed resistance and diplomatic efforts. Armed resistance has often been met with overwhelming military responses from Israel, leading to significant loss of life and infrastructure damage.
         - Diplomatic efforts, such as participation in peace processes (Oslo Accords, Camp David Summit, etc.), have sought to achieve a two-state solution but have faced numerous obstacles, including settlement expansion and internal political divisions.
      2. International Support and Advocacy:
         - Palestinians have garnered significant international support and recognition, with many countries and international organizations advocating for their right to self-determination. However, this has not translated into a resolution of the conflict.
       
       Hypothetical Outcomes of Palestinian Passivity
      1. Unlikely Changes in Israeli Policies:
         - Given Israel's strategic and ideological commitments to its territorial claims, it is unlikely that Palestinian passivity would have led to a significantly different outcome. Israeli policies have been driven by security concerns, historical claims, and political dynamics independent of Palestinian actions.
      2. Internal and External Pressures on Israel:
         - While Palestinian passivity might have reduced immediate conflict, it is uncertain whether it would have altered long-term Israeli policies. Internal Israeli politics, regional dynamics, and international pressures play crucial roles in shaping the conflict's trajectory.
       
       Conclusion
      The argument that Palestinian actions would not have changed the current outcome, given Israeli claims and military superiority, rests on the premise that Israel's strategic and ideological commitments to an undivided Jerusalem and broader territorial control are deeply entrenched. While Palestinian strategies have varied, the fundamental asymmetry in power and the entrenched nature of Israeli claims suggest that different Palestinian actions might not have led to a substantially different outcome. The conflict's resolution likely requires significant shifts in both Israeli and Palestinian policies, as well as sustained international engagement.
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         0 comments
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      As for Nefertari the guide and the local Egyptians felt that it was overrated particularly in light of the US$60 (!!!) entrance fee. This is a few times the going rate and such is the demand that you get 10 mins in the tomb. Obviously we did not go there!
      So going back to my earlier contention - what's the cult?
      It's the contemporary interest in women's empowerment, their positions in leadership roles, and so on. I am not challenging the validity of this interest. I am just drawing attention to how it manifests itself in tourists making choices about what to see, how much they pay to see it, and how much effort they put into doing so.

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