Jump to content
modaoudi

Current geopolitics middle-east

Rate this topic

Recommended Posts

Salam,

So now that the takfiris are practically defeated and Bashar has the upper hand in Syria, what do you think will happen in the coming years?

So first we need to distinguish the big players in the region:

  • Iran + Syria + Lebanon + Iraq + Yemen = Winners
  • Saudi Arabia + Israel + Gulf(-Qatar?) + Jordan + USA + Rest of Arabs = Zionists

Then we have the players we're uncertain of:

  • Turkey + Qatar = Though they were against Assad, they don't seem to side so much with the Zionists 
  • Russia = Though they were with Assad, they don't seem to rule out the possibility of working with the Zionists.

So what do you think?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Turkey and Qatar are just as evil as the Saudis and the Emiratis. The fact that they have issues together does not mean they are not Zionists.

Both Turkey and Qatar have US bases in their countries, and Turkey is a member of NATO. Both of them have public relations with Israel. It was both of them who conspired against Syria in the beginning. 

The disagreements between the Muslim Brotherhood alliance (Qatar and Turkey) and the Saudi-led Arab alliance (Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan) does not mean Qatar/Turkey can now be trusted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think with the massive amount of success of Iranian influence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon has made the Saudis and other gulf states scared to such an extent where they’ll probably start more of a propaganda campaign that could influence young Sunnis to go down the path of extremism. Saudi Arabia is also currently growing to be  unstable the Wahhabi religious establishment and royal family tension is increasing. I believe the Saudi prince Mohammad bin Salman as he has laid out in his plans for Saudi Arabia wants to move the nations away from its Wahhabi influence so I think with the combination of success of Iran in the region and the Wahhabis wanting to remain a strong presence in the nation is going to lead to war. I think Mohammad bin Salman and almost everyone else recognises that the best way to bring a country together is to have a common enemy which is Iran. I fear war is coming.

when it comes to Russia, Turkey and Qatar I believe the current situation has turned into the enemy of my enemy is my friend situation but that doesn’t mean any of these nations should be trusted. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So basically the zionists are having two main internal struggles; the political one (Turkey and Qatar) and the ideological one (Wahabism not working like they wanted). 

7 hours ago, Wholehearted Shi'a said:

I believe the Saudi prince Mohammad bin Salman as he has laid out in his plans for Saudi Arabia wants to move the nations away from its Wahhabi influence

Yeah I think that he will take the "Moderate Islam" approach that the west has been pushing for years in order to blame Iran for extremism.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Piece in the FT todays says, sensibly to my mind, that current levels of supply/demand in the oil markets do not justify a price beyond US$50-55.

Where the price is more than this, it suggests a premium due to the prospect of war. And the greater the premium the greater the risk market participants believe exists.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/10/2017 at 8:09 PM, E.L King said:

Turkey and Qatar are just as evil as the Saudis and the Emiratis. The fact that they have issues together does not mean they are not Zionists.

Both Turkey and Qatar have US bases in their countries, and Turkey is a member of NATO. Both of them have public relations with Israel. It was both of them who conspired against Syria in the beginning. 

The disagreements between the Muslim Brotherhood alliance (Qatar and Turkey) and the Saudi-led Arab alliance (Saudi, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan) does not mean Qatar/Turkey can now be trusted.

Qatar/Turkey cannot be trusted for sure, but I think there are too many differences at stake for them to form one common alliance with the Saudi/Israeli axis against Iran and allies. 

Edited by Mohamed1993

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mohamed1993 said:

Qatar/Turkey cannot be trusted for sure, but I think there are too many differences at stake for them to form one common alliance with the Saudi/Israeli axis against Iran and allies. 

The second Qatari-Saudi relations are restored, we'll go back to the same old axis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There, imo, were 3 fronts in ME.

-Ikhwani Front- Turkey + Mursi's Egypt + Qatar
-Moderate Front- Saudi Arabia + SiSi's Egypt + Jordan + Israel + 1/2 Lebanon + US
-Resistance Front- Iran + Iraq + Syria + 1/2 Lebanon .........+ Russia

Mursi's sectarian outlook coupled with Erdogan's emotional politics made for the fall of the Ikhwanis. Banished by the Moderate front, Russia and Iran are trying to absorb the Ikhwanis to their camp.
So in this round 2 between the last 2 fronts standing- Resistance & Moderate fronts, the next 100 years of the region is at stake....  Whether the region will be re-broken into pieces like it did 100 years ago and another 100 years of wars, or wether ME solidifies itself into one solid & united entity like China in the East, India in the sub-continent, US in Americas, or EU in Europe. 

If being emotional runs contrary to positive political outcome, like Erdogan, I see MBS's very strong emotions as the downfall of the moderate front. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Wahdat said:

There, imo, were 3 fronts in ME.

-Ikhwani Front- Turkey + Mursi's Egypt + Qatar
-Moderate Front- Saudi Arabia + SiSi's Egypt + Jordan + Israel + 1/2 Lebanon + US
-Resistance Front- Iran + Iraq + Syria + 1/2 Lebanon .........+ Russia

Mursi's sectarian outlook coupled with Erdogan's emotional politics made for the fall of the Ikhwanis. Banished by the Moderate front, Russia and Iran are trying to absorb the Ikhwanis to their camp.
So in this round 2 between the last 2 fronts standing- Resistance & Moderate fronts, the next 100 years of the region is at stake....  Whether the region will be re-broken into pieces like it did 100 years ago and another 100 years of wars, or wether ME solidifies itself into one solid & united entity like China in the East, India in the sub-continent, US in Americas, or EU in Europe. 

If being emotional runs contrary to positive political outcome, like Erdogan, I see MBS's very strong emotions as the downfall of the moderate front. 

Ikhwani front also includes Hamas, iran supports them but they've all supported the opposition in Syria, Hamas also voiced support for Saudi intervention in Yemen, don't think they will be part of the resistance axis. Also, Egypt under Sisi isn't always on the same side as Saudi, Egypt supports Assad. I think it's tough to group these countries together, Saudi/UAE/Bahrain/Israel seem to be consistently on the same side, Iran/Iraq/Syria/Hezbollah are pretty much always on the same side, Egypt/Qatar/Turkey vary depending on the conflict. 

Edited by Mohamed1993

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

History repeats itself. But I think this time it's the ultimate battle. The middle east has been ruled by all empires around it; Persians, Babylonians, Greeks/Macedonians, Egyptians, Romans, Russians, Arabs, Turks, British Empire and finally Jews(US/Israel). After that, nations split and each did their own thing until they got powerful enough to take back what was once their own. And it looks like everybody is ready to go at it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mohamed1993 said:

Ikhwani front also includes Hamas, iran supports them but they've all supported the opposition in Syria, Hamas also voiced support for Saudi intervention in Yemen, don't think they will be part of the resistance axis. Also, Egypt under Sisi isn't always on the same side as Saudi, Egypt supports Assad. I think it's tough to group these countries together, Saudi/UAE/Bahrain/Israel seem to be consistently on the same side, Iran/Iraq/Syria/Hezbollah are pretty much always on the same side, Egypt/Qatar/Turkey vary depending on the conflict. 

When Hamas jumped ship to the Ikhwani front, Iran severed its ties with them. Now Iran is courting both Hamas and Qatar, while Russia is laying the groundwork for Turkey to join in.
SiSi's Egypt gets billions from Saudis. If not by action, by word they will be 100% pro Saudi.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my humble opinion, the war in Syria is still far from over yet. After defeating Isis and other zionist's armies in Syria, there are few other fronts awaiting for SAA, Hezbollah and allies i.e. the liberation of Eastern Syria from kurdish and US led Zion forces, Golan heights, Idlib, Homs and some small pockets of zionists near Damascus. Among all these fronts I see Eastern Syria and the areas near the Golan heights the most difficult ones to fully liberate by SAA and allies. If and when SAA and allies decides to reach these areas then I strongly fear it will lead to a full fledge war either with israel or probably with the US itself. I hope I am wrong on this but if we look at the events during the past few months, the israelis had immediately attacked SAA and even Damascus whenever they tried to defeat those muslim zionists in golan heights. However the only hope I see is if those israelis and especially saudis or US zionists struck with some major internal conflict that weakens them to such an extent that keeps them away from Syria and lead them to failure in their dirty plans. (INSHAHALLAH). Or if Russia comes out strongly and takes a decisive stand not just politically but in physical manner like sending more troops and advance weaponry to Syria for her defence and takes a firm stand for her sovereignty which I see as yet not happening. Not because Russians are deceiting Syria but mainly because they just cannot afford a war from this front at this time. The coming weeks will define what will happen but for now it seems really difficult for SAA and allies to open up this new front in coming days or even in weeks. 

Edited by John Romerro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 16/11/2017 at 3:52 AM, Mohamed1993 said:

Ikhwani front also includes Hamas, iran supports them but they've all supported the opposition in Syria, Hamas also voiced support for Saudi intervention in Yemen, don't think they will be part of the resistance axis. Also, Egypt under Sisi isn't always on the same side as Saudi, Egypt supports Assad. I think it's tough to group these countries together, Saudi/UAE/Bahrain/Israel seem to be consistently on the same side, Iran/Iraq/Syria/Hezbollah are pretty much always on the same side, Egypt/Qatar/Turkey vary depending on the conflict. 

Good call. Although Egypt should still technically be on the Saudi side, they are not Saudi puppets. Their main enemy is the Muslim Brotherhood and not Iran, and so in Syria their stance is different than others, because they will not support an opposition on the ground which is good with Qatar and Turkey and has MB-influenced ideology.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote
  • Russia = Though they were with Assad, they don't seem to rule out the possibility of working with the Zionists.

Did someone miss that Russia actually made a deal with Saudi Arabia and sold them S-400 air defense missile? Don't you get it, these people are playing with the resistance and it is sadness that we buy and ask help from the enemy of Islam. It is us that gonna lose every war that they create, because that is how they make easy money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great quotation from the FT today. 

Quote

 

"[Sisi] a former army chief who came to power after a popularly backed 2013 coup toppled an Islamist president."

 

 

https://www.ft.com/content/f1d5571c-d119-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc

Note how:

1. an undemocratic putsch is now defined as being 'popularly backed' making a weak attempt at legitimising it

2. the previous democratically elected government is now disparaged by simply being labelled Islamist.

Black is white and white is black.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The leaders of Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt all pressurized the US to bomb Iran prior to negotiations on the 2015 nuclear deal, former US secretary of state John Kerry said. He described the proposition as a “trap in lots of ways” for Washington.

Kerry, who chaired the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee before heading the US diplomatic corps in 2013, recalled how he met Saudi King Abdullah, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his capacity as legislator. All three leaders lobbied him for military action against Iran. “Each of them said to me: You have to bomb Iran, it’s the only thing they are going to understand,” he said.

“I remember that conversation with President Mubarak. I looked at him and said: It’s easy for you to say. We go bomb them and I bet you’ll be the first guy out there the next day to criticize us for doing it. And he went: ‘Of course, ha-ha-ha-ha!’” Kerry said. “It was a trap in a lot of ways. But more importantly, Prime Minister Netanyahu was genuinely agitating towards action.”

https://www.rt.com/news/411316-kerry-egypt-bomb-iran/

Edited by Dhulfikar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


×