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hasanhh

JCPOA ---Not Re-Certified

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post1300hrs, Friday(afternoon!) 13Oct17

The nutworks ABC and CBS have carried live reports of Pres. Trump announcing his decision not to "re-certify" the nuclear development agreement with lran.

China, Russia and the EU have announced they will continue with this agreement.

Nearly coincident with Trump's press conference, The Atlantic published online this article dated yesterday, 12Oct17:   https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/iran-deal-next/542379/  which explains the mechanisms involved in Trump's action.

That World Ieaders are not pleased, see: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/world-leaders-react-trump-s-move-iran-nuclear-deal-n810456 

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There are people who say that anti-semitic conspiracy theorists overplay the power that Israel has. 

In this instance, we know that Netanyahu's problems with Iran preceded those of Trump. 

We now have an instance where all the other world's powers are against Trump's actions and the only person who actively pushed for them to happen is Netanyahu.

Quote

Netanyahu, who has for years lobbied for a tougher US policy against Iran and who had clearly been briefed on the content, said he wanted to “congratulate president Trump for his courageous decision today” and for “boldly confront[ing] Iran’s terrorist regime.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/13/trump-iran-nuclear-deal-congress

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53 minutes ago, hasanhh said:

China, Russia and the EU have announced they will continue with this agreement.

This is going to be key. The US didn't recertify it but the rest of the world is continuing with it.

Remember that point when it all hits the fan.

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1 hour ago, Akbar673 said:

This is going to be key. The US didn't recertify it but the rest of the world is continuing with it.

 

This is what I wonder, will firms that invest in Iran face penalties from not being able to do business in Iran? The clout of the dollar is still very strong, (although it is weakening), so it may indeed be that the US will impose its own sanctions and then the other countries will have to make a choice Iran or the US, and they obviously will choose the larger economy. If this happens, the nuclear deal will be effectively useless for Iran, they will have given up their program for nothing. 

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1 minute ago, Mohamed1993 said:

This is what I wonder, will firms that invest in Iran face penalties from not being able to do business in Iran? The clout of the dollar is still very strong, (although it is weakening), so it may indeed be that the US will impose its own sanctions and then the other countries will have to make a choice Iran or the US, and they obviously will choose the larger economy. If this happens, the nuclear deal will be effectively useless for Iran, they will have given up their program for nothing. 

Western European firms perhaps but I doubt that will be the case for Russian or Chinese investments in Iran.

In fact, those two are probably watering at the mouth right now because if the U.S. and Western European firms are forced to back out then that'll open the door even wider for Russia and China to dominate the Irani marketplace with their goods and services.

Remember this decertification, because this event could be the main catalyst for a further division of East and West. Everything East of Iran will be on one side vs. everything West of Iran. 

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45 minutes ago, Akbar673 said:

Western European firms perhaps but I doubt that will be the case for Russian or Chinese investments in Iran.

In fact, those two are probably watering at the mouth right now because if the U.S. and Western European firms are forced to back out then that'll open the door even wider for Russia and China to dominate the Irani marketplace with their goods and services.

Remember this decertification, because this event could be the main catalyst for a further division of East and West. Everything East of Iran will be on one side vs. everything West of Iran. 

Yeah, I think Europe will still be limited, but they have vowed to stick to the deal, Federica Mogherini just made a statement that the deal cannot be renegotiated, it will stay as it is. Sounds like if the US manages to sway the Europeans from staying away from Iran, it will be through bullying and coercing, which hurts the US more than anything. 

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3 hours ago, Mohamed1993 said:

This is what I wonder, will firms that invest in Iran face penalties from not being able to do business in Iran? The clout of the dollar is still very strong, (although it is weakening), so it may indeed be that the US will impose its own sanctions and then the other countries will have to make a choice Iran or the US, and they obviously will choose the larger economy. If this happens, the nuclear deal will be effectively useless for Iran, they will have given up their program for nothing. 

Nightly Business Report, PBS, Friday-the-13th, October 2017 : Reporter Evers said that Boeing's contract to sell 80 planes to lran is "not affected ... yet."

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3 hours ago, Akbar673 said:

Western European firms perhaps but I doubt that will be the case for Russian or Chinese investments in Iran.

In fact, those two are probably watering at the mouth right now because if the U.S. and Western European firms are forced to back out then that'll open the door even wider for Russia and China to dominate the Irani marketplace with their goods and services.

Remember this decertification, because this event could be the main catalyst for a further division of East and West. Everything East of Iran will be on one side vs. everything West of Iran. 

From the reformists point of view, simply having Russia and China invest in the Iranian economy is not enough. They want business with European banks as well.

Anyway, we'll see what congress does.

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3 minutes ago, E.L King said:

From the reformists point of view, simply having Russia and China invest in the Iranian economy is not enough. They want business with European banks as well.

Anyway, we'll see what congress does.

I'm also confused, has the US designated the iRGC as a terrorist organisation? That was something that was discussed, and I read something about it earlier, but I'm not sure if what I read was a designation. If so, well, then does Iran treat US troops like ISIS too? 

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3 minutes ago, Mohamed1993 said:

I'm also confused, has the US designated the iRGC as a terrorist organisation? That was something that was discussed, and I read something about it earlier, but I'm not sure if what I read was a designation. If so, well, then does Iran treat US troops like ISIS too? 

I don't believe they designated them as terrorists, yet, but it's probably in review. But they did introduce new sanctions on them.

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The EU+3 is not happy. This was prominently expressed this week over the last few days.

Now that Trump has declined to re-certify the deal, here are some reactions:

Russia via TASS News Agency  http://tass.com/politics/970499  "Kremlin warns US (that -ed.) quitting lranian nuclear deal may have rather negative consequences" Note: from the sub-title we can see that Tass is interpreting the Iranian MP's earlier comments as lranian gov't policy, which we see is not accurate with Rouhani's speech tonight.

China: http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1070201.shtml  "China urges all parties to preserve lran nuclear deal", quotes China's FM Yang Jieche.

China: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/14/c_136678239.htm "Spotlight: Trump's lran decertification announcement again rattles world" Note: lncluded in the article is the PENTAGON's announcement that it will now review its force structure to be in alinement with Trump's new policy.

lran: After Trump's press conference, President Rouhani immediately went on lranian television to announce that lran will continue to abide by the JCPOA terms.  http://en.abna24.com/news/iran/us-president’s-anti-iran-speech-insults-delusional-claims-rouhani_860202.html  "US president's anti-lran speech insults, delusional claims: Rouhani"  @2315hrs Tehran time. Rouhani also announced that lran will now "double" its defense production.  OPINE: Hopefully, electronic warfare and aero-space defense are included.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Mohamed1993 said:

I'm also confused, has the US designated the iRGC as a terrorist organisation? That was something that was discussed, and I read something about it earlier, but I'm not sure if what I read was a designation. If so, well, then does Iran treat US troops like ISIS too? 

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/13/trump-iran-revolutionary-guards-243760 

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:dwarf:"l hope this ain't true !"  

Washington Week, PBS.org Friday-the-13th, 0ctober 2O17

Discussion on Trump & lran begins ~15 minutes into the program.

Michael Crowley, Senior Foreign Policy Reporter for Politico, said Trump didn't re-certify the lran deal because every 90 days as required by law he has to certify or decertify that lran is in compliance and the previous two times he recertified the deal headlines were 'Trump breaks a campaign promise'. Continuing, Crowley said Trump had reached a "breaking point" about looking bad.

:ranting:  [This has been self-censored -ed.]

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23 minutes ago, hasanhh said:

:dwarf:"l hope this ain't true !"  

Washington Week, PBS.org Friday-the-13th, 0ctober 2O17

Discussion on Trump & lran begins ~15 minutes into the program.

Michael Crowley, Senior Foreign Policy Reporter for Politico, said Trump didn't re-certify the lran deal because every 90 days as required by law he has to certify or decertify that lran is in compliance and the previous two times he recertified the deal headlines were 'Trump breaks a campaign promise'. Continuing, Crowley said Trump had reached a "breaking point" about looking bad.

:ranting:  [This has been self-censored -ed.]

Yep, i heard this too! Though Trump did say if congress did nothing, he would get the US out of the deal, so Idk, maybe he'll tweet his way out of it though, who knows?

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9 minutes ago, Mohamed1993 said:

Yep, i heard this too! Though Trump did say if congress did nothing, he would get the US out of the deal, so Idk, maybe he'll tweet his way out of it though, who knows?

"...tweet his way out..."    l-D-K to click "Like" or "Cry"

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Here is how JCPOA negotiated by the P5+l was passed in Congress and not as a treaty:

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/241355-senate-votes-to-approve-Iran-review-bill  in 2015

Now, without Democratic support and a 2/3rds majority required, Trump cannot get the lran Review Act repealed.

Therefore, by not re-certifying JCPOA as required every 90 days, sanctions are triggered and reportedly the US Treasury is already beginning this process. This will 'kill-the-deal' in time.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-congress/iran-deals-foes-in-u-s-congress-may-be-its-unlikely-saviors-idUSKBN1CH2K2 

Senator Corker who co-authored the law said this week that the every 90 days re-certification provision be eliminated. This likely explains why he was subject to vicious Trump-Tweets this past week. The article refers to this as a "twitter feud".

Thursday, 120ct17, the House Foreign Affairs Committee approved sanctions targeting lran's missile programs. [OPINE: this sanctions 'thing' didn't do a lot to stop the DRPK.]

The lRGC is also targeted.

 

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3 hours ago, hasanhh said:

:dwarf:"l hope this ain't true !"  

Washington Week, PBS.org Friday-the-13th, 0ctober 2O17

Discussion on Trump & lran begins ~15 minutes into the program.

Michael Crowley, Senior Foreign Policy Reporter for Politico, said Trump didn't re-certify the lran deal because every 90 days as required by law he has to certify or decertify that lran is in compliance and the previous two times he recertified the deal headlines were 'Trump breaks a campaign promise'. Continuing, Crowley said Trump had reached a "breaking point" about looking bad.

:ranting:  [This has been self-censored -ed.]

This is what is resonating with me about all of this as well.

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A 2015 Council on Foreign Relations article entitled "How Binding is the lran Deal?"

https://www.cfr.org/interview/how-binding-iran-deal   

Summation: Trump is on solid ground as far as law and the UN are concerned.

Paragraph counting includes the bold face type questions.

para. 5  UNSCResolution "does not bind the US to lift sanctions".

para. 7 Sanctions are by law AND Executive Order [so Trump can re-impose previous sanctions by EO]

para. 8 the US committed to lift sanctions --lf sanctions are re-imposed lRl can pull out of the agreement (legally) {Note: this partially explains Pres. Rouhani going on TV within an hour and included the statement that lran will stay in the agreement.}

para. 10 the "snapback" provisions allows the US to act unilaterally.

para. 16 & 17 w/20: in this 2015 article, JCPOA is not legally binding

para. 18  Article Predicts:  The US pulling out of the agreement will cause a "rift" with the other parties to this agreement.

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